Climate of Pennsylvania. By: Kyle Imhoff Pennsylvania Earth Science Teachers Association Conference November 19, 2016

Transcription

1 Climate of Pennsylvania By: Kyle Imhoff Pennsylvania Earth Science Teachers Association Conference November 19, 2016

2 Overview Pennsylvania State Climate Office What we do and what we provide Climate trends in Pennsylvania Analysis of different climate variables Climate change and commnication

3 Pennsylvania State Climate Office What we do Provide climate services to clients across the commonwealth Manage archives of state weather data for mltiple weather reporting networks Provide spport for decision-making tools that reqire weather inpt Agricltre, transportation, etc. Partake in research related to climate impacts and historical climate trends Website:

4 Data Networks Many across the state

5 Visalizing weather data Taken from:

6 Data Archive

7 Example: FAA Network Stations

8 Climate Data Caveats! Be mindfl of observation times/dates with climate datasets Airport locations (FAA/NWS) are atomated weather stations report horly or sb-horly daily reports are sally midnight to midnight local time smmaries of a particlar calendar day (e.g. Dec. 22 nd observations were from 12am Dec 22 to 12am Dec 23) NWS COOP sites are volnteer observers they report 24-hor smmaries once a day typically taken between 6-8am each morning for the prior 24- hor period The observation for Dec. 22 nd is the 24-hor period prior to 7am Dec. 22 nd so, 7am Dec 21 throgh 7am Dec 22 local time is the Dec 22 observation This confses the general pblic consistently (and yo can see why) Jst a note in case yo ever are comparing inter-network observations

9 Commnity Collaborative Rain, Hail, & Snow Network (CoCoRaHS) I am the state coordinator for CoCoRaHS Report 24-hor precipitation totals once-a-day (similar to COOP sally 7 or 8am local time) High-qality network of precipitation information In addition to precip, yo can report observation notes (clod cover, precip type falling now, frost present, etc.) Anyone can do this with a rain gage and an interest in the weather! Potential learning opportnity for stdents Contact me if any interest

10 American Association of State Climatologists Most states have a state climate office (48 of the 50 states) Some are hosed within state government agencies (e.g. DEP, DOT, etc.) Others are within niversities (most with geography, geoscience, or atmospheric science departments) Additional climate service organizations span mltiple states and select regions of the contry E.g. Northeastern Regional Climate Center, USDA Regional Climate Hbs, etc.

11 Climate of Pennsylvania Becase of or close proximity to bodies of water (Atlantic Ocean and Great Lakes) and freqent moistre transport from the Glf of Mexico, PA is a persistently wet region Extended periods of droght, while highly disrptive, are relatively rare Persistent winds from the west bring relatively freqent storms and distrbances in the atmospheric flow to the state Northwest winds in the winter bring relatively cold weather in the winter and sotherly flow in the smmer provides hot and hmid weather PA is a niqe state in that many extreme weather events can occr Tropical cyclones, winter storms, severe storms/tornadoes, etc.

12 Changes in the Climate of Pennsylvania

13 Pennsylvania Climate Divisions Most states are separated into climate regions, or divisions Each division is assigned based on basic climate characteristics that are similar across the division Historical trend analysis is typically done either with divisional data or Historical Climate Network stations

14 Pennsylvania Historical Climate Network (HCN) Stations 24 stations in Pennsylvania The US HCN is part of a global HCN that forms the basis of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports and projections that are released at the international level Stations are part of the National Weather Service COOP network (report once a day)

15 Statewide Winter Temperatres (Dec-Feb) Trend: degrees F per decade

16 Statewide Spring Temperatres (Mar-May) Trend: degrees F per decade

17 Statewide Smmer Temperatres (Jn-Ag) Trend: degrees F per decade

18 Statewide Fall Temperatres (Sept-Oct) Trend: degrees F per decade

19 Statewide Winter Precipitation (Dec-Feb) Trend: per decade

20 Statewide Spring Precipitation (Mar-May) Trend: per decade

21 Statewide Smmer Precipitation (Jn-Ag) Trend: per decade

22 Statewide Fall Precipitation (Sept-Nov) Trend: per decade

23 Largest Trend Lower Ssqehanna Climate Division Trend: per decade

24 Digging Deeper Into the Trends

25 Case of Rising Temperatres - Nighttime Lowest minimm annal temperatre for State College Increased by between 5-8 degrees F over past ~125 years Why might this be the case? Urbanization Location of observation has moved More clod cover at night Anthropogenic sorces

26 Nmber of Hot Days Days with high temperatres >= 90 degrees F Almost no trend - even slightly decreasing over the past ~125 years Goes against what may be conventional wisdom This does not mean that, on average, temperatres are not warming jst that very hot days are not increasing Why? Urbanization (shadows, shade, etc.) Increased moistre content Foliage from nearby trees, etc.

27 Bt it is not a crystal clear pictre Nmber of cold nights in West Chester, PA (when temps dropped to at or below 10 degrees F) Cold nights have increased over the past 125 years

28 What abot extreme precipitation days? In addition to more precipitation over the corse of a year, the nmber of very wet days has increased over the decades Notice that over the past decade or two, West Chester has not had a year in which there were 0 days of >=2.00 of precipitation

29 What does this all mean? The climate is changing and the climate is always changing While the scientific consenss is that temperatres will generally rise over the next few decades along with increasing precipitation, how that is distribted across the globe is far from certain In other words, State College, PA may cool consistently throgh the next 50 years while Chicago dramatically warms Bradford, PA may become mch wetter while Boise, ID becomes mch drier

30 Global Climate Change and Scientific Commnication

31 Scientific Commnication This is a crcial aspect of any discipline, bt especially in the sciences This is a problem not jst in the climate commnity bt weather forecasting, as well As edcators, it is important to emphasize to stdents that commnication is sch a critical skill

32 Climate Change and Uncertainty What do we mean when we say scientific consenss? Does this mean a consenss that the Earth is warming? That the Earth is warming and hmans play some role in this trend? That the Earth is warming and hmans play a larger role than any other inflence on the climate? What does consenss even mean (e.g. 75% of scientists, 90% of peer-reviewed research, etc.) When looking at climate change projections how good are the models? How to accrately portray ncertainty in the forecast AND commnicate this effectively to the pblic What does global average temperatre actally mean to someone living in SE Pennsylvania? How does weather differ from climate? Are they the same?

33 Some things to think abot.. Climate change will not affect everyone eqally at a local level Some places may even see cooling trends for a period of time It is important to differentiate local weather to global climate trends For example, the nmber of wet days or hot days may not always increase in a given location for a period of time this does not mean the climate is not changing, jst that local effects play some role in the local climate Encorage stdents to analyze datasets for themselves Critically thinking and analyzing data (especially large datasets) are always important skills for ftre scientists Allows them to form conclsions for themselves

34 Commnicate Additional Players in Climate The oceans play a key role in heat distribtion Clods (high, middle, and low) also affect heat distribtions Srface reflectivity (snow, ice, forest, desert, etc.) of the Earth plays a role Many other factors, some better nderstood and qantified, than others are also part of the story

35 Climate Impacts Cortesy of: US EPA

36 References Divisional Data National Centers for Environmental Information Climate-At- A-Glance: Station Data Applied Climate Information System - Climate Impacts Imagery:

37 Qestions