Frequency of Weather Delays An Analysis

Transcription

1 Frequency of Weather Delays An Analysis Dr. John McCarthy Manager of Scientific and Technical Program Development Naval Research Laboratory Monterey, California Phone

2 Types of Delays Convective Storms in Spring, Summer, and Fall; clearly the biggest, most frequent, nearly continuous problem Winter storms at major northern airports impacts Part 121 operations (C&V, vertical wind shear) Flight in IMC conditions, or transit from VMC to IMC conditions impacts Part 91 and military operators; critical need to do better job in C&V forecasting/nowcasting

3 Geographical Impacts Convection widespread, but depends on traffic volume situation (e.g., NYC) Winter storms north and east U.S. C&V issues widespread, NE, Mid-Atlantic, Middle and deep South, Upper Midwest, West Coast

4 Causes of Delay Equipment ATC Volume Weather Complexities of interrelationships between categories not well understood; more work needed following excellent lead of MIT Lincoln Laboratory at NYC ITWS Need better definitions of bins, modeling, etc.

5 Accidents by Primary Cause* Hull Loss - Worldwide Commercial Jet Fleet through % 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% Flight Crew 91 67% Airplane 15 11% Weather 10 7% Maintenance 8 6% Misc./Other 6 4% Airport/ATC 5 4% Total with known causes Unknown or awaiting reports Total * As determined by the investigating authority 21

6 1.0 Convective Storm Prediction Tactical Strategic A C C U R A C Y 0.5 NCWF CIWS ITWS CCFP TIME (Hours)

7 Collaborative Decision Forecast Product (CCFP) Aviation Weather Center

8 National Convective Weather Forecast Aviation Weather Center

9 Thousands of Delays Convective Weather Delays Increasing OPSNET Weather Delays JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC Month

10 Corridor Integrated Weather System (CIWS) Commercial and Military Fuel Burned (lbs./day) for May 1990 (above 7.0 km altitude) 0.0x x x x x x1008 Fuel Use (lbs) Source: Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Vol. 78, No. 9, September 1997, p.1887.

11 Coverage of Sensors for CIWS 2001 ZMP ZBW ZAU ZOB ZNY ZID ZDC ZNY ASR-9 (60 nmi) ARSR (124nmi) NEXRAD (124 nmi NM) [23

12 Corridor Integrated Weather System (CIWS) Corridor Integrated Weather System is an expansion of existing ITWS technology. Congested en route corridors such as Cleveland ARTCC account for a large fraction of US en route delays. Corridor Integrated Weather System (CIWS) will use all the FAA and NWS weather sensing assets plus best available convective weather forecast technology to reduce delays. Real time product feed to users start in May 2001 at Command Center, en route centers, major terminals Critical need to insure that CIWS weather alert areas are matched with AIR TRAFFIC MANAGEMENT ACTIONS to take full advantage of capabilities

13 Corridor Integrated Weather System (CIWS) Delay reduction projected to be well in excess of 27,000 hours per year. Reduced delays at ORD, CVG, DTW and PIT would equate to a savings of $78M per year for users. Better decision making. Increased departure rates. Better coordination among centers, tracons, ATCSCC. Less unnecessary rerouting due to enroute weather.

14 1-hr Regional Convective Weather Forecast (loop) Precip Display with Storm Motion Vectors CIWS provides high resolution weather and forecasts in Cleveland Corridor Multi-window display allows pan/zoom and animation

15 Integrated Terminal Weather System (ITWS) What is ITWS: ITWS provides an automated capability which will: Integrate data from FAA/NWS sensors and systems, as well as from aircraft in flight Automatically provide weather information that is immediately useable without further meteorological interpretation Predict short-term weather changes Purpose: Provide terminal weather prediction and hazardous weather detection to increase safety and sustain capacity in all weather conditions

16 ITWS Supported Airports LAS SLC PHX DIA MSP MCI ICT OKC PSF TUL FAAAC MKE ORD MDW STL MEM IND BOS DTW LGA CLE TEB EWR N90 PHL JFK DAY PIT WJHTC CMH BWI ADW CVG IAD DCA SDF BNA CLT ATL RDU AAA = Airports served or = TRACON served = one ITWS serving 2 or more TRACONs DFW DAL IAH HOU MSY TPA MCO FLL MIA SJU

17 ITWS Capabilities Wind Shear Products Microburst detection/prediction Gust Front detection/forecast Wind shift estimate ATIS Timers Precipitation Storm Products Storm Motion/extrapolated position Storm cell information Graphic Situation Display ASR-9 anomalous propagation editing Tornado detection/alert Airport lightning warning LLWAS winds Terminal Winds Pilot terminal test messages

18 ITWS Prototypes Currently 4 prototypes operational Situation Displays located in following facilities- Orlando: MCO, TPA, ZJX Memphis: MEM, ZME Dallas/Ft. Worth: DFW, DAL, ZFW New York: N90, JFK, LGA, EWR, TEB, ZNY, ZBW, ZDC, ATCSCC

19 C&V NCAR Forecast/Nowcast Improvement Program

20 Impact of C&V at Delay Airports PIT BOS DTW JFK LGA ORD EWR ATL PHL PRECIP RADIATION ADVECTION SNOW SEA CLT IAH DCA SFO MSP STL MEM DFW LAX

21 Class A Mishap Dollar Loss due to Weather Per Year ($74M) Loss Each Year From Each Weather Group (In Millions of Dollars) Vis Related Wind Related Precipitation 6.1 Combined Sea State Density Altitude 7.2 Icing Thunderstorm 51.0 Turbulence The Role of Weather in Class A Naval Aviation Mishaps LCDR Ruben A. Cantu, USN MS Thesis, NPS, March, 2001

22 DATA SOURCES Model Satellite Surface Obs Radar PIREPS/ TAFS COAMPS RUC II Cloud classification / Low cloud METARS/ CLIMO NEXRAD/ Radar Mosaic Assign functions and dynamic weights/automatic verification Final C&V product

23 National C&V Flight Category

24 Parting Thoughts Many valuable weather developments at the FAA Weather is a major cause of delay, but too little is known about the complexity of weather impacts More research on complex models on weather impacts is needed to understand weather more thoroughly how weather fits into ATC/ATM delays I am of the opinion that the impact is both larger than previously believed, and reducible, due mostly to studying the results of Jim Evans of MIT LL

25 Parting Thoughts (Continued) Weather remains quite distributed throughout the agency, and while excellent work is occurring, better big picture coordination of weather within the agency would be beneficial regarding delay and safety There continues to be a need for a senior executive level atmospheric scientist with operational experience who has the respect of the weather community who can help FAA senior management get a broad, integrated handle on weather, and integrate it back to ATC/ATM