Weather Considerations for UAS Integration

Transcription

1 Weather Considerations for UAS Integration Scot Campbell 8 December 2016 Sponsor: Steve Abelman, ANG-C6 DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT A. Approved for public release: distribution unlimited.

2 Legal Notices This material is based upon work supported by the Federal Aviation Administration under Air Force Contract No. FA C-0002 and/or FA D Any opinions, findings, conclusions or recommendations expressed in this material are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Federal Aviation Administration Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Delivered to the U.S. Government with Unlimited Rights, as defined in DFARS Part or 7014 (Feb 2014). Notwithstanding any copyright notice, U.S. Government rights in this work are defined by DFARS or DFARS as detailed above. Use of this work other than as specifically authorized by the U.S. Government may violate any copyrights that exist in this work. Lincoln Laboratory Air Traffic Control Workshop

3 Example Weather Impacts on UAS Small UAS Large UAS he had been trying to take pictures of the monument and that the wind blew the drone across a street that divides the White House from the grounds of the Washington Monument. September 24, 2015 October 5, 2015 When the aircraft flew into cloud cover, it simultaneously lost satellite link. Shortly thereafter, the crew spotted ice buildup using the onboard camera. Before they could recover the aircraft from cloud cover, ice buildup and lost link made the controls erratic, causing the aircraft to stall. Lincoln Laboratory Air Traffic Control Workshop

4 Current Weather Sources Consumer Weather Aviation-Specific Weather Point-Based Weather Forecasts Simple Drone Weather Apps Aviation weather products have evolved over time for conventional aircraft. Needs specific to UAS operations have not been defined Lincoln Laboratory Air Traffic Control Workshop

5 Overview Background UAS Weather Needs Study Weather Considerations for Visual Line Of Sight (VLOS) Weather Considerations for Beyond VLOS (BVLOS) Summary Lincoln Laboratory Air Traffic Control Workshop

6 FAA / Lincoln UAS Weather Study Objectives Investigate weather information requirements for UAS operations Consider a wide range of UAS missions and weather conditions Identify weather information gaps Provide preliminary UAS weather research roadmap to FAA Lincoln Laboratory Air Traffic Control Workshop

7 Weather Information Gap Identification Process Mission Classification Mission Class Class Code Use Case Bridge and Structure Inspection ft / 0 1 hr / 0 3 mi L1 Accident Scene Investigation Aerial Photography / Imaging Agriculture (Crop Monitoring/ Management) Media / Cinematography Surveying and Mapping Research and Development Similar Missions UAS Weather Gaps Search and Rescue Snowpack Monitoring Power Production Inspection Agriculture (Crop Monitoring/ Management) Agriculture (Aerial Application) ft / 0 1 hr / 3 25 mi L2 Search and Rescue Traffic Monitoring Surveillance / Reconnaissance Sensing Package Delivery Surveying and Mapping Snowpack Monitoring Operator Surveys and Interviews UAS Weather Needs Dependent on mission class List of Wx Products Ability to meet need Recommendations for deeper quantitative analysis and development Safety Airspace management Mission efficiency Mission urgency ConOps and Vision for Integration Current Weather Products Strategies for Airspace Management Lincoln Laboratory Air Traffic Control Workshop

8 Stakeholder Outreach Stakeholder surveys: Identify mission operational characteristics, weather impact, weather resources, and potential weather information gaps Surveyed population: Surveys Disseminated Received 102 Responses or Interviews to date Lincoln Laboratory Air Traffic Control Workshop

9 Survey Content UAS operation characteristics Weather considerations and significance to mission Currently-available weather information sources & utility Additional weather information needs Lincoln Laboratory Air Traffic Control Workshop

10 Example Weather Information Results Provide the significance of each weather condition to the feasibility of your operation Small UAS Very significant Neutral Not at all significant 0 Information category Lincoln Laboratory Air Traffic Control Workshop

11 Example Weather Information Results Provide the significance of each weather condition to the feasibility of your operation Small UAS Large UAS Very significant Neutral Not at all significant 0 Information category Lincoln Laboratory Air Traffic Control Workshop

12 Weather Needs Vary Between Two Key Operational Modes Visual Line of Sight Part 107 Flight Rules Obtain local weather conditions Maintain 500 ft below and 2000 ft horizontal distance from clouds 3 SM visibility (slant range) High sensitivity to local winds, visibility, and precipitation Observation may be more important than forecast Beyond Visual Line of Sight UAS expected to be subject to Instrument Flight Rules (IFR) Requires integration with manned traffic Time-based operations Remote sense and avoid weather Demand/capacity balance Contingency planning is critical Lost link considerations Potentially long mission durations Forecast may be more important than observation Lincoln Laboratory Air Traffic Control Workshop

13 Overview Background UAS Weather Needs Study Weather Considerations for Visual Line Of Sight (VLOS) Weather Considerations for Beyond VLOS (BVLOS) Summary Lincoln Laboratory Air Traffic Control Workshop

14 Significant Weather for VLOS 1. Precipitation / Thunderstorms UAS not waterproof 2. Surface Wind Controllability Ability to stay within geofence boundaries 3. Clouds and Visibility Part 107 weather minimums to separate from IFR traffic Maintain visual contact with UAS Local Conditions are Critical Lincoln Laboratory Air Traffic Control Workshop

15 Local Variability in C&V Geographic location Terrain effects Atmospheric effects Time Weather is dynamic Lincoln Laboratory Air Traffic Control Workshop

16 Ceiling & Visibility (C&V) Gap Analysis: Qualitative Evaluation Weather Product METAR/ASOS MOS/LAMP Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) Direct Observation Satellite Imagery Area Forecast Prog Charts NWP Models NEXRAD TDWR PIREP AIRMET ITWS CIWS CoSPA NWS Point Forecasts Rated Ability to Meet Weather Need Direct measurement, but often not co-located with launch site. Demonstrated skill, with some diminishment after 24 hours. Less precision than MOS/LAMP, but human value-added for aviation weather thresholds. Limited to airports. Provides direct observation at launch location, but usually restricted to visual estimate rather than measurement. Good for areal coverage, but lacking in height. Broad area forecast of C&V. Broad forecast of C&V. High resolution area coverage. Practical application shows up in statistical products (MOS/LAMP). Provides precipitation but not explicit C&V. Provides precipitation but not explicit C&V. Few low altitude observations away from airport Broad forecast of C&V. Provides precipitation but not explicit C&V. Provides precipitation but not explicit C&V. Provides precipitation but not explicit C&V. High resolution area coverage. Height information typically not included. Mostly meets weather need Partially meets weather need Does not meet weather need Lincoln Laboratory Air Traffic Control Workshop

17 Ceiling & Visibility (C&V) Gap Analysis: Example Quantitative Evaluation Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) Less precision than MOS/LAMP, but human value-added for aviation weather thresholds. Limited to airports. Potential TAF constraints Updates only scheduled every 6 hours: may not capture dynamic changes Forecast can lag/lead observation: may miss timing of events Only valid in the vicinity of an airport: may not be valid at remote location Impact of potential limitations (gaps) can be quantified through statistical analysis Lincoln Laboratory Air Traffic Control Workshop

18 Overview Background UAS Weather Needs Study Weather Considerations for Visual Line Of Sight (VLOS) Weather Considerations for Beyond VLOS (BVLOS) Summary Lincoln Laboratory Air Traffic Control Workshop

19 Significant Weather for BVLOS 1. Thunderstorms Unable to see and avoid 2. Winds Aloft Critical for time-based ops 3. Icing Lack of ice protection 4. Urban/Terrain Wind Effects Uncertainty degrades efficiency due to strict contingency planning Lincoln Laboratory Air Traffic Control Workshop

20 Effect of Wind on Predicted Flight Time 70 Flight Time Error (%) DJI Phantom Scan Eagle Reaper Assumptions Planned flight is direct route between origin and destination Flight time = Distance / Ground Speed Ground Speed = Cruise Speed Wind Error Constant wind error 10 knot wind error 5 knot wind error Global Hawk Cruise Speed (knots) Lincoln Laboratory Air Traffic Control Workshop

21 Winds Aloft Gap Analysis: Qualitative Evaluation Weather Product Numerical Weather Prediction Models Wind/Temp Aloft Tables Direct Observation METAR/ASOS Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) MOS/LAMP Area Forecast NWS Point Forecasts Rawinsonde Soundings TDWR ITWS NEXRAD AIRMET Ability to Meet Weather Need High resolution area coverage. Practical application in statistical products (MOS/LAMP). Does not provide low level winds information. This would provide wind aloft at launch location. However, not typically available. Primary value is some correlation between surface and aloft wind. Often not colocated with launch site. Less precision than MOS/LAMP, but human value-added for aviation weather thresholds. Primary value is some correlation between surface and aloft wind. Broad area forecast of significant winds. Aloft not typically represented. Winds aloft not typically addressed. Primary value is correlation with surface winds. Sparse observation Gust front product. Sparse. Terminal winds product. Limited availability. Unexploited Doppler information. Provides high threshold wind warning. Not typically aloft. Mostly meets weather need Partially meets weather need Does not meet weather need Lincoln Laboratory Air Traffic Control Workshop

22 Winds Aloft Gap Analysis: Example Quantitative Evaluation Weather Product Numerical Weather Prediction Models Ability to Meet Weather Need High resolution area coverage. Practical application in statistical products (MOS/LAMP). San Francisco: 10m Above Ground Level San Francisco: 80m Above Ground Level 20 Observation HRRR Model 20 Observation HRRR Model Wind Speed (knots) Wind Speed (knots) Day Number Day Number HRRR captures cycle, underestimates magnitude HRRR misses cycle, overestimates magnitude Lincoln Laboratory Air Traffic Control Workshop HRRR = High Resolution Rapid Refresh model

23 Overview Background UAS Weather Needs Study Weather Considerations for Visual Line Of Sight (VLOS) Weather Considerations for Beyond VLOS (BVLOS) Summary Lincoln Laboratory Air Traffic Control Workshop

24 Summary of Key UAS Weather Gaps Focus on weather that impacts UAS operations Small UAS Off-airport weather conditions Off-airport winds, including urban and terrain effects Ceiling & visibility for Part 107 operations Low-level winds aloft To enable time-based integration Weather-impacted capacity prediction for suas Weather avoidance models for suas of different capability levels Tactical weather avoidance for BVLOS Large UAS Long-range weather forecasts for missions up to 30 hours Convective weather (including cloud tops) Stratospheric turbulence Icing layers Characterization of weather forecast uncertainty for contingency planning High-level winds aloft Forecasted winds up to FL600 to enable time-based integration Tactical weather avoidance for BVLOS Gaps being translated into research roadmap based on magnitude and importance Lincoln Laboratory Air Traffic Control Workshop

25 Preliminary Roadmap Research roadmap connects UAS weather gaps to R&D activities Roadmap topics include: Evaluation of weather observation, model, and forecast performance (spatial and temporal) Determination of weather requirements to support UAS operations Dissemination of restricted or unobservable weather data to the UAS operator Development of advanced weather technology to address UAS weather gaps Example: Winds aloft below 500 feet to support time-based operations 1. Evaluate Numerical Weather Model performance a) Determine 80m and 10m HRRR forecast performance over a variety of geographic areas b) Determine accuracy of 80m and 10m HRRR analysis field over a variety of geographic areas 2. Quantify the sensitivity of time-based operation performance to wind model accuracy a) Consider wide range of UAS platforms b) Model and simulate UAS operations in historical wind conditions c) Establish recommendations for wind model accuracy to support suas time-based operations Lincoln Laboratory Air Traffic Control Workshop

26 Summary Current weather information may not meet needs of UAS operations FAA / Lincoln study is developing preliminary UAS weather research roadmap Covering broad spectrum of UAS classes and mission types Surveying stakeholders: vehicle- and mission-specific requirements Correlating against current weather information sources to identify gaps Potential opportunity for new weather-based decision support tools to provide safety and operational benefits Current weather products and tools may be tailored for specific ops Wholly new data sources and products may be required Lincoln Laboratory Air Traffic Control Workshop

27 Questions? Lincoln Laboratory Air Traffic Control Workshop