Analysis Capabilities Developed in Support of WTIC Research

Transcription

1 Analysis Capabilities Developed in Support of WTIC Research Tom Reynolds Air Traffic Control Systems Group Friends & Partners of Aviation Weather (FPAW) Meeting Washington, DC, August 3, 2016 Distribution Statement A. Approved for public release: distribution unlimited.

2 Motivation: Wind Impacts on 4D-Trajectory Based Operations Frequency Actual Winds Other aircraft forming traffic stream 95% time compliance at meter fix FMS Wind Forecast Time target and Wind updates ATC Systems Time Target Meter Fix ATC Wind Forecast 0 Time Error Need for research to inform Minimum Weather Service & 4D-TBO guidance documents WTIC Winds Panel - 2 FMS = Flight Management System 4D-TBO = 4D-Trajectory Based Operations

3 Technical reports, RTCA activities, etc. Charter Support WTIC objective to develop a minimum weather service Perform analyses to determine wind information specifications and potential FMS windrelated enhancements that enable current and selected NextGen operations to meet performance objectives in various wind conditions Various capabilities developed to support this charter Identify NextGen Operations Impacted by Wind Forecasts Develop Modeling Framework Work with Stakeholders Identify performance objectives Conduct Analysis Develop analysis infrastructure Develop Trade Spaces of Performance vs data source, accuracy, update rate, etc. Assess datalink implications Develop Recommendations for Minimum Wind Information and Datalink Requirements WTIC Winds Panel - 3

4 Aircraft/Automation Simulation Average forecast error Perf Metric Lincoln/WTIC Winds Program History 1/2012 Phase I II III IV V 12/ / /2014 4/2016 4/2017 Wind Scenario forecast Truth assumpt Forecast ions ATC Scenario 4D-TBO IM Benign, Moderate, Severe, Extreme Stakeholder needs Performance Assessment Low Med High Sample target performance Wind Information Quality Req d wind info quality Wind Requirements Identify combinations of wind data forecast model & look-ahead time which meet required wind info quality goal Wind Information Analysis Framework (WIAF) Model A B C Look-ahead time Scenario Variable FMS RTA capability Overall Impact on Performance Major Worse Performance From * Better Performance From * FMS RTA tolerance Major Wider RTA tolerance Tighter RTAtolerance Wind forecast error magnitude Wind forecast error location relative to meter fix Truth wind variability Cruise flight level Waypoint (wind forecast point) density Major Medium Medium (correlates with error magnitude) Medium Minor Open-Loop in Descent Hi forecast error Near forecast error Hi var truth wind High cruise level Few cruise wind WPs Full Closed- Loop Control Lo forecast error Far forecast error Lo var truth wind Low cruise level Many cruise wind WPs WTIC Winds Panel - 4

5 95% RTA Compliance (secs) Lincoln/WTIC Winds Program History 1/2012 Phase I II III IV V 12/ / /2014 4/2016 4/2017 = Lincoln = Honeywell = Lockheed Aircraft Aircraft AircraftAerodynamics, Inertial Engines, etc. Aerodynamics, Aerodynamics, Inertial Inertial Engines, etc. Comm Layer Comm Engines Layer FMS FMS FMS Pilot CDU GPS Clock CDU GPS Clock Pilot Pilot CDU GPS Clock Autothrottle MCP ADIRS TMC Autothrottle MCP ADIRS TMC Autothrottle MCP ADIRS TMC Autopilot ADC FQPU Discretes Autopilot Autopilot x40 Aircraft ADC ADC FQPU FQPU Discretes Discretes A-FMS=GE and HW RL FMS with full flight RTA control B-FMS= HW BL FMS with cruise RTA control only Services/ Agents/Displays Airline MCP Display Scenario Controller ATC CDU Web Display Data Collection Common Data Bus AIM Web Service Wx Web Service LRU LRU LRU LRU LRU Displays CDU Scripter Mapping Display Wx Controller Cockpit Display CDU/Track Web Server AircrafT Operations Modeling System (ATOMS) A-FMS/Tol 6 A-FMS/Tol 30 B-FMS/Tol 30 FMS RTA Capability/Tolerance Hi (25 kts RMS) Medium (15 kts RMS) Low (5 kts RMS) Wind forecast error WTIC Winds Panel - 5

6 95% RTA Compliance (secs) Identified need for enhanced automation and/or wind model or Case Study: Establishing Wind Information Needs and Associated ConOps/Datalink Needs to Support a Given Level of Required 4D-TBO Performance No 1. Define scenarios of interest 2. Identify performance trade-space 3. Select target performance level 4. Do feasible combinations of performance drivers meet target level of performance? Yes (wind error limit) ±10 secs 95% of time (slice through trade-space at 20 secs) 4D-TBO from cruise at FL to meter fix at 12,000 ft A-FMS=GE and HW RL FMS with full flight RTA control B-FMS= HW BL FMS with cruise RTA control only A-FMS/Tol 6 A-FMS/Tol 30 B-FMS/Tol 30 FMS RTA Capability/Tolerance Hi (25 kts RMS) Medium (15 kts RMS) Low (5 kts RMS) Wind forecast error 1) Any combination with 5 kts RMS wind error 2) A-FMS/Tol 6 only with 15 kts RMS wind error 3) No FMS/operation with 25 kts RMS wind error No 5. Do feasible combinations of wind forecast model and lookahead time meet error limit? Yes Wind information needed to support any studied aircraft/fms combination 6. Define procedure/conops/datalink needs to get required wind info accuracy to aircraft On average: GFS: cannot support 5 kts RMSE RAP: <2.1 hrs lookahead HRRR: <3.0 hrs lookahead WTIC Winds Panel - 6

7 Current Infrastructure Development MAFID Test Definition Scenario Definition ASDE-X TFMS MDCRS I IV V 11/2014 4/2016 4/2017 Data Ingest Data Association Flown Route Analyzer CIFP Integration of WIAF, ATOMS & MAFID (Meteorological and Flight Information Database) Allows identification of scenarios based on operational flights meeting desired criteria Simulate flights with truth atmosphere data based on MDCRS measurements Flight Qualification Route Planning Datalink Forecasts Selection Scenario Creation Flight Simulation ARAM Flight Qualification Trajectory Estimation Forecasted Wind & Temperature Selection Scenario Data Files Creation Aircraft Aircraft Reported Atmosphere Model (ARAM) Weather Forecast Data Service ATOMS Route Service HRRR Atmos. ATC AOC Etc. WTIC Winds Panel - 7 MDCRS = Meteorological Data Collection and Reporting System

8 Leveraging Aircraft In-Situ Atmospheric Measurements To maximize the realism of the conditions, now can use aircraft-derived meteorological data reports from MDCRS-equipped aircraft Simulated aircraft reproduced actual flights WTIC Winds Panel - 8 MDCRS = Meteorological Data Collection and Reporting System

9 Latest RTA Analysis Key research questions: 1. What is the impact to RTA performance of increasing the number of Descent Forecast Levels (DFLs) in a B757 FMS from four to nine? DFL Operational B757 Pegasus FMS (4 DFLs, wind only) A DFL Enhanced B757 Pegasus FMS (9 DFLs, wind & temp) B 2. What is the impact to RTA performance of optimized wind altitude selection for B757 FMS descent wind definitions? 9 DFLs 4 DFLs C D Headwind optimized profile Magnitude optimized profile Equidistant altitude selection profile WTIC Winds Panel - 9

10 Latest RTA Analysis: Effect of Enhancing FMS Descent Forecasts Airlines currently often use simple wind selection procedures to determine what (if any) forecast information to load into the FMS FMS can only accept a limited set of forecast data at discrete points E.g., Four Descent Forecast Levels (DFLs) DFL Boeing 757, Honeywell Pegasus FMS WTIC Winds Panel - 10 DFL = Descent Forecast Level

11 Effect of Enhancing FMS Descent Forecast Research Questions 1. What is the impact to RTA performance of increasing the number of DFLs in a B757 FMS from four to nine? Operational B757 Pegasus FMS (4 DFLs, wind only) Enhanced B757 Pegasus FMS (9 DFLs, wind & temp) DFL DFL WTIC Winds Panel - 11 DFL = Descent Forecast Level

12 A Effect of Enhancing FMS Descent Forecast Research Questions B 2. What is the impact to RTA performance of optimized wind altitude selection for B757 FMS descent wind definitions? 9 DFLs C 4 DFLs D Headwind optimized profile Magnitude optimized profile Equidistant altitude selection profile WTIC Winds Panel - 12

13 Summary Analysis capabilities critical to support WTIC mission Range of tools developed at Lincoln to assess impacts of atmospheric forecast accuracy on 4D-TBO performance Application of tools being leveraged in range of areas, e.g., RTCA guidance documents On-going work: Use of aircraft-derived winds (e.g., via Mode S EHS) RTA to lower altitude meter fixes Interested to explore collaborations with other stakeholders who could benefit from access to tools WTIC Winds Panel - 13

14 This material is based upon work supported by the Federal Aviation Administration under Air Force Contract No. FA C-0002 and/or FA D Any opinions, findings, conclusions or recommendations expressed in this material are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Federal Aviation Administration Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Delivered to the U.S. Government with Unlimited Rights, as defined in DFARS Part or 7014 (Feb 2014). Notwithstanding any copyright notice, U.S. Government rights in this work are defined by DFARS or DFARS as detailed above. Use of this work other than as specifically authorized by the U.S. Government may violate any copyrights that exist in this work. WTIC Winds Panel - 14

15 WTIC Winds Panel - 15 Backups

16 WTIC Winds Panel - 16 KDEN Simulations (No Forecast Data)

17 WTIC Winds Panel - 17 KDEN Simulations (Cruise and 4 Magn-opt DFLs w/ 3hr fcst)

18 Results All Qualified Flights, Wind Magnitude Optimized ±2 std Within +/- 10sec: 24.5% WTIC Winds Panel - 18