BUDT 733 Data Analysis for Decision Makers

Transcription

1 BUDT 733 Data Analysis for Decision Makers Fall Sections DC01 Exploring A Trip to Hawaii What drives flight delays between DC and Honolulu by Prashant Bhaip Andres Garay Vedat Kaplan Greg Vinogradovg Yu-Ling Wang

2 The Question: What drives flight delays between DC and Honolulu? Explanatory vs. Predictive? BUDT 733 Data Analysis for Decision Makers - 2 -

3 Data Expedia to Excel Flights in 2008 Period: 2004 Q Q3 BTS (FAA) 225 MB each Month Total 8.1 GB of Data Categorical & numerical BUDT 733 Data Analysis for Decision Makers - 3 -

4 Data Details Flight Info Expedia + On-Time Perf. + Weather + Oil Price + BTS NOAA Bloomberg Stock Info Yahoo Fin DELAY Weekend Holiday OilPrice MONTH CARRIER DAY_OF_WORIGIN DEST ORIGIN_TEDEST_VIS DJ_Close No UA 7 IAD SFO No UA 7 BWI ORD Yes UA 6 IAD SFO No UA 6 BWI ORD No UA 5 IAD SFO No UA 5 BWI ORD No UA 4 IAD SFO Yes UA 4 BWI ORD No UA 3 IAD SFO No UA 3 BWI ORD No UA 2 IAD SFO No UA 2 BWI ORD No UA 7 IAD SFO No UA 7 BWI ORD No UA 1 IAD SFO Yes UA 1 BWI ORD No UA 6 IAD SFO No UA 6 BWI ORD Yes UA 5 IAD SFO No UA 5 BWI ORD No UA 4 IAD SFO BUDT 733 Data Analysis for Decision Makers - 4 -

5 Sources United Continental Northwest US Airways Delta American Airlines Departure Time 9:30 AM 8:00 AM 8:45 AM 9:30 AM 7:05 AM 12:50 AM Origin to Hub IAD - SFO BWI - IAH DCA - MSP BWI - ORD BWI - ATL DCA - DFW Hub to Destination SFO - HNL IAH - HNL MSP - HNL ORD - HNL ATL - HNL DFW - HNL Expedia NOAA (National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration) BTS (Bureau of Transportation Statistics) Yahoo Bloomberg Others BUDT 733 Data Analysis for Decision Makers - 5 -

6 Pre-Processing Processing MM of obs (8.1 GB) Down to 5,000 <7MB Variables down 100 -> > 30 -> > 13 BUDT 733 Data Analysis for Decision Makers - 6 -

7 Initial Exploration BUDT 733 Data Analysis for Decision Makers - 7 -

8 Further Exploration BUDT 733 Data Analysis for Decision Makers - 8 -

9 Impact of Weather The Visibility Effect Adverse visibility conditions cause delays BUDT 733 Data Analysis for Decision Makers - 9 -

10 Impact of Weather The Wind Speed (Gust) Effect Wind speed affects takeoff and landing BUDT 733 Data Analysis for Decision Makers

11 Impact of the Day of Flight Any Day of the Week Weekend Holiday IAH ORD MSP ATL DFW SFO IAH ORD MSP ATL DFW SFO IAH ORD MSP ATL DFW SFO 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% Percent Delay 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% Percent Delay 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% Percent Delay DC to Hubs Hubs to Honolulu BUDT 733 Data Analysis for Decision Makers

12 Does Distance Matter? Only the Extreme ones are affected Washington to Hubs: DEST DELAY Data ATL DFW IAH MSP ORD SFO No Count of DELAY 78.00% 82.36% 86.06% 81.22% 81.31% 78.60% Average of DISTANCE Yes Count of DELAY 22.00% 17.64% 13.94% 18.78% 18.69% 21.40% Average of DISTANCE Hubs to Honolulu: ORIGIN DELAY Data ATL DFW IAH MSP ORD SFO No Count of DELAY 62.65% 73.15% 75.08% 56.83% 70.99% 77.57% Average of DISTANCE Yes Count of DELAY 37.35% 26.85% 24.92% 43.17% 29.01% 22.43% Average of DISTANCE BUDT 733 Data Analysis for Decision Makers

13 Fitting a Model to Understand Delays Fitted Classification Tree, Logistic Regression and Discriminant Analysis from DC to the hub cities and then to Honolulu. Three techniques yielded similar results Partitioned only for pruning the classification tree Predictors were dropped gradually p-value overall error of the model The R-squared R metric showed some improvement over the Naïve rule BUDT 733 Data Analysis for Decision Makers

14 Results - Conclusions Weather can cause delay Visibility during landing Wind gusts during both takeoff and landing Proxy variables didn t t provide good predictors Continental is the only airline that showed a significant difference over the others Minneapolis handles the winter better than other airports, but cannot handle the additional demand of summer Seasonal effects (weekend/holiday) aren t t as bad as the media seems to portray BUDT 733 Data Analysis for Decision Makers

15 Questions? BUDT 733 Data Analysis for Decision Makers

16 Extra Slides BUDT 733 Data Analysis for Decision Makers

17 Monthly Delays (Hubs to HNL) Hubs to HNL - Monthly Delays 12.00% 10.00% 8.00% 6.00% 4.00% 2.00% 0.00% Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec ATL to HNL DFW to HNL IAH to HNL MSP to HNL ORD to HNL SFO to HNL BUDT 733 Data Analysis for Decision Makers

18 Monthly Delays (Was to Hubs) Was to Hubs - Monthly Delays 40.00% 35.00% 30.00% 25.00% 20.00% 15.00% 10.00% 5.00% 0.00% Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec IAD to ATL BWI to DFW DCA to IAH BWI to MSP BWI to ORD IAD to SFO BUDT 733 Data Analysis for Decision Makers

19 Impact of Weather The Wind Speed Effect Wind speed affects takeoff and landing ORIGIN DELAY Data BWI DCA IAD Grand Total No Count of DELAY 81.63% 86.06% 78.30% 81.22% Average of DEST_WDSP Yes Count of DELAY 18.37% 13.94% 21.70% 18.78% Average of DEST_WDSP DEST DELAY Data ATL DFW IAH MSP ORD SFO Grand Total No Count of DELAY 78.00% 82.36% 86.06% 81.22% 81.31% 78.60% 81.22% Average of DEST_WDSP StdDev of DEST_WDSP Max of DEST_WDSP Min of DEST_WDSP Yes Count of DELAY 22.00% 17.64% 13.94% 18.78% 18.69% 21.40% 18.78% Average of DEST_WDSP StdDev of DEST_WDSP Max of DEST_WDSP Min of DEST_WDSP BUDT 733 Data Analysis for Decision Makers

20 Logistic Regression Washington to hub airports Hub airports to Honolulu Input variables Coefficient Std. Error p-value Odds Constant term * Spring Summer CO DISTANCE ORIGIN_TEMP ORIGIN_VISIB ORIGIN_WDSP DEST_VISIB DEST_WDSP Dest_Rain Dest_Thunder DJ_AdjClose Input variables Coefficient Std. Error p-value Odds Constant term * Summer ATL MSP ORIGIN_TEMP ORIGIN_DEWP ORIGIN_VISIB ORIGIN_WDSP Origin_Rain Origin_Thunder DEST_TEMP DEST_DEWP DEST_SLP BUDT 733 Data Analysis for Decision Makers

21 Discriminant Analysis Variables Classification Function Delay No Delay Difference Constant Fri_Sun Winter Spring Summer UA DL AA CO DISTANCE ORIGIN_TEMP ORIGIN_DEWP ORIGIN_SLP ORIGIN_VISIB ORIGIN_WDSP Origin_Fog Origin_Rain Origin_Snow Origin_Thunder Origin_Tornado DEST_TEMP DEST_DEWP DEST_SLP DEST_VISIB DEST_WDSP Dest_Fog Dest_Rain Dest_Snow Dest_Hail Dest_Thunder DJ_AdjClose Variables Classification Function 1 0 Difference Constant Fri-Sun Weekend Holiday Winter Spring Summer UA DL AA CO DISTANCE ORIGIN_TEMP ORIGIN_VISIB ORIGIN_WDSP Origin_Fog Origin_Rain Origin_Snow Origin_Hail Origin_Thunder DEST_TEMP DEST_VISIB DEST_WDSP Dest_Fog Dest_Rain Dest_Thunder Dest_Tornado DJ_AdjClose BUDT 733 Data Analysis for Decision Makers

22 Classification Tree DEST_PRCP ORIGIN_WDSP DEST_VISIB ORIGIN_TEMP DISTANCE ORIGIN_VISIB ORIGIN_VISIB DEST_MXSPD DISTANCE DEST_WDSP DEST_TEMP DL DEST_PRCP2 DEST_WDSP DEST_TEMP Sub Tree beneath Sub Tree beneath Sub Tree beneath Sub Tree beneath Sub Tree beneath Sub Tree beneath 0 0 Sub Tree beneath 1 Sub Tree beneath Sub Tree beneath Sub Tree beneath BUDT 733 Data Analysis for Decision Makers