Village of Fairchilds Fort Bend County Hazard Mitigation Plan Update

Transcription

1 T AF D R Village of Fairchilds Fort Bend County Hazard Mitigation Plan Update 2017

2 Table of Contents Section 1: Organize and Review... 1 Section 2:... 7 Drought... 8 Extreme Heat Severe Winter Storms Lightning Hailstorms Windstorms Tornadoes Expansive Soils Floods Land Subsidence Hurricanes/Tropical Storms Earthquakes Dam/Levee Failure Wildfires Risk Ranking Result Section 3: Mitigation Strategy Section 4: Finalize Plan Update Section 5: Approval and Adoption References Figures Figure FC.01, Fairchilds Planning Area... 1 Figure FC.02, Major Employers... 2 Figure FC.03, Utility Providers... 2 Figure FC.04, Planning Committee Membership... 2 Figure FC.05, Village of Fairchilds Plan Participation... 3 Figure FC.06, Plan Stakeholders... 4 Figure FC.07, Review/Incorporation of Sources... 5 Figure FC.08, Public Involvement for Updates... 5 Figure FC.09, Fort Bend County Hazard Mitigation Plan Maintenance Schedule, Village of Fairchild...6 Figure FC.10, Reported Drought Occurrence, Fort Bend County... 8 Figure FC.11, Drought Probability... 9 Figure FC.12, Reported Drought Impacts, Fort Bend County... 9 Figure FC.13, Fort Bend County Hospital Inpatient Data, Extreme Heat Figure FC.14, Winter Weather Occurrences, Fort Bend County Figure FC.15, Severe Winter Storms Probability Figure FC.16, Winter Weather Related Power Outages, Fort Bend Surrounding Areas Figure FC.17, Winter Weather Related Crashes, Rural Fort Bend County Figure FC.18, Average Annual Lightning Density, Village of Fairchilds Figure FC.19, Thunderstorm Related Power Outages, Fort Bend Surrounding Areas Figure FC.20, National Hail Days Per Year, Village of Fairchilds Figure FC.21, Hail Occurrences, Fort Bend County Figure FC.22, Hailstorms Probability Figure FC.23, National Wind Days Per Year, Village of Fairchilds Figure FC.24, Reported Wind Events, Village of Fairchilds Figure FC.25, Windstorms Probability Figure FC.26, National Tornado Days Per Year, Village of Fairchilds Figure FC.27: Tornado Events, Village of Fairchilds Figure FC.28 Tornadoes Probability Figure FC.29, Special Flood Hazard Areas, Village of Fairchilds Figure FC.30, Village of Fairchilds Floodplain Acreage Figure FC.31, Flood Events, Fort Bend County Figure FC.32, Floods Probability Figure FC.33, Building Counts, Village of Fairchilds Figure FC.34, Building Replacement Value, Village of Fairchilds Figure FC.35, Building Damage Counts, Village of Fairchilds itable of Contents

3 Table of Contents Figure FC.36, Building-Related Losses, Village of Fairchilds Figure FC.37, Groundwater Depletion Zones, Village of Fairchilds Figure FC.38, Observed Subsidence, Village of Fairchilds Figure FC.39, Historical Hurricane/Tropical Storm Paths, Village of Fairchilds Figure FC.40, Hurricanes/Tropical Storms Affecting Fort Bend County Figure FC.41, Hurricanes/Tropical Storms Probability Figure FC.42, Property Damage Losses, Village of Fairchilds Figure FC.43, Earthquakes Probability Figure FC.44, Wildland Urban Interface (WUI) and Reported Wildfire Ignitions, Village of Fairchilds Figure FC.45, Wildfire Ignitions, Village of Fairchilds Figure FC.46, TxWRAP Fire Intensity Acreage Village of Fairchilds Figure FC.47, Wildfires Probability Figure FC.48, WUI Acreage, Village of Fairchilds Figure FC.49, Risk Ranking Results, Village of Fairchilds Figure FC.50, Existing Capabilities, Village of Fairchilds Figure FC.51, Mitigation Actions Figure FC.52, Mitigation Action Summary Worksheet Figure FC.53, Mitigation Action Prioritization Figure FC.54, Mitigation Action Impact, Village of Fairchilds Figure FC.55, Plan Integration Efforts, Village of Fairchilds Figure FC.56, Past Mitigation Action Progress Reports Summary - Completed and Canceled Figure FC.57, Municipal Jurisdiction Adoption Date ii

4 Village of Fairchilds Annex Section 1: Organize and Review This section contains a brief description of the Village of Fairchilds and its jurisdictional features. In addition, Section 1 contains the following details regarding Fairchilds : participation in the Fort Bend County HMP Update process, stakeholder engagement, public outreach strategy, incorporation efforts, and plan maintenance procedures. Figure FC.01, Fairchilds Planning Area NORTH Map Not to Scale. Cumings *Population: 771 Size of Community: 2.14 sq. miles *Population over 65 years old: 70 *Population under 16 years old: 205 *Economically Disadvantaged Population ($0-$20k) : 46 Fairchilds is serviced by the following responders: Fire: Fairchilds Volunteer Fire Department EMS: Fort Bend County Emergency Medical Services Law Enforcement: Needville Police Department *HAZUS-MH 3.2 Updated Census 2010 Population Estimates 90 New Territory Greatwood 69 Community Description When planning, it is important to take into account the characteristics that make a community unique. Consideration of unique needs when it comes to mitigating or recovering from natural hazards ensures that all members of the community and their needs are addressed. The Village of Fairchilds is located south-central Fort Bend County, and 4 miles northeast of the City of Needville. The Village is named by the first man to live there in 1840, Philo Fairchilds. It is home to 771 people as of the 2010 census. The Village is governed and supported by a Mayor, 3 Aldermen, a City Secretary, and a City Attorney. The Village is home to the Fairchilds Farmer Co-op Gin, serving the community and surrounding area. The most common jobs held by the residents are Administrative positions along with Construction and Extraction. The majority of the Village attends the Needville Independent School District, but a small portion is zoned to Lamar Consolidated Independent District. The major employers and utility providers are listed in below in Figure FC.02 and Figure FC.03, respectively. 1Organize and Review

5 Figure FC.02, Major Employers Organize and Review Figure FC.03, Utility Providers Planning Committee Planners who represented Fairchilds for the update process are collectively known as the Fairchilds Mitigation Planning Committee (MPC) and are shown in Figure FC.04. Figure FC.04, Planning Committee Membership Community/ Jurisdiction Village of Fairchilds Business Type Government Type Electric Natural Gas Water Cable Agency Village Hall Office of Emergency Management Name of Employer Village of Fairchilds Provider CenterPoint CenterPoint Wells HughesNet Title Mayor Emergency Management Coordinator 2

6 Community Planning Involvement MPC planning activities for the Fort Bend County Hazard Mitigation Plan (HMP) Update are captured in Figure FC.05, which utilizes check-marks to indicate each of the activities that were completed by the Fairchilds MPC. Figure FC.05, Village of Fairchilds Plan Participation 99 Kick-off Mitigation Strategy 99 Planner s Survey Data Collection Spreadsheet/ GIS Data 99 Planning Worksheets 99 Phone Interview 99 EventBrite Meeting Posting 99 Public Survey Posting/ Collection Stakeholders During the Phase 1 Kick-Off Meeting, planners were provided with a Planner/Stakeholder worksheet, referred to in Chapter 1, the Plan Process portion of the Fort Bend County HMP Update. This document allowed planners to identify stakeholders for inclusion in the and Mitigation Strategy Meetings. Stakeholders identified as potential partners for Fairchilds planning effort are shown in Figure FC.06. 3Organize and Review

7 Organize and Review Figure FC.06, Plan Stakeholders Jurisdiction Agency Title Fort Bend County EMS Chief Village of Fairchilds Volunteer Fire Department Chief Village of Fairchilds Village Hall Aldermen (3) City of Needville Police Department Sergeant Village of Fairchilds Village Hall Village Secretary Fort Bend County Office of Emergency Management Emergency Management Coordinator CenterPoint Energy Utilities Government Relations Needville ISD Education Superintendent Lamar CISD Education Superintendent Village of Fairchilds Consultant Village Engineer Village of Pleak Village Hall Mayor City of Needville City Hall Operations Manager Harris County Office of Homeland Security and Emergency Management Hazard Mitigation Planner Outreach Strategy The Village of Fairchilds was active in the outreach activities used to request public participation in the Fort Bend County HMP Update. Their activities included promotion of the HMP Public Survey, the use of EventBrite web tools for meeting announcements, plan phase newsletter distribution, and a draft plan public comment period. Public Survey Promotion Fairchilds advertised the Fort Bend County HMP Update Public Survey on the Fairchilds community bulletin board. There were 2 survey results for the Village of Fairchilds, and there were 377 total responses (for the entire County area) to the survey. Survey data was directly incorporated into the risk ranking process for hazards and mitigation actions. Details regarding the incorporation of the survey results was included in Chapter 2, the portion of the Fort Bend County HMP Update. EventBrite Public Meeting Postings Fort Bend County utilized EventBrite, an online event tool for organizing, promoting and managing public events. By using this tool, the community made the risk assessment and mitigation strategy meetings public events that were searchable and open for registration for citizens, as well as stakeholders. Plan Phase Newsletters Fairchilds MPC utilized newsletters for each phase of the planning process in order to share updates on the planning process with stakeholders, elected officials, Village staff and the public. Copies of the newsletters can be found in Appendix A of the Fort Bend County HMP Update. Plan Draft Public Review and Comment Period The link to the draft Fort Bend County HMP Update was posted on the Village of Fairchilds bulletin boards at the Village Hall from July 13, 2017 until July 27, A hard copy was placed in the Fairchilds Volunteer Fire Department. Comments were collected via online or paper form. 4

8 Incorporation of Sources In addition to stakeholder and public input, the MPC also reviewed other planning resources that could provide useful information to the plan update process. Figure FC.07 lists the documents reviewed and how they were considered for incorporation in the updated plan. Figure FC.07, Review/Incorporation of Sources Name of Document Type How Incorporated 2013 State of Texas HMP Plan Utilized hazard definitions and hazard classification names. Flood Insurance Study Study Incorporated best available hydraulic and hydrological study results for flood hazard profile. Flood Damage Prevention Ordinance Fort Bend County Drainage Plan Regulation Plan Figure FC.08, Public Involvement for Updates Reviewed existing ordinance for identification of potential higher standards, such as freeboard. Reviewed for possible inclusion of existing projects that are identified for the Village of Fairchilds. Continued Public Participation in Maintenance Process The strategy for updates at the local level for the Village will include the opportunities for public involvement, as shown in Figure FC.08. Activity Public Involvement Method Available Monitoring Evaluation Updates The public will be given notice when items will be reviewed and will receive the opportunity to review the notes from any notable developments. The public will be given a means to voice their opinion on the completed actions. Once updates are made, the changes will be recorded in a public revision history document. Newspaper/Social Media SurveyMonkey/Paper Survey Newspaper/Social Media/ Council Meeting Announcements/ SurveyMonkey 5Organize and Review

9 Organize and Review Maintenance Figure FC.09 lists the method, schedule, and responsible agent for the monitoring, evaluation, and updating of the adopted 2017 HMP within the Plan s 5-year update cycle. Figure FC.09, Fort Bend County Hazard Mitigation Plan Maintenance Schedule, Village of Fairchild Task Scope Method Schedule Responsible Agent Monitoring Evaluation Updates Jurisdictional Jurisdictional Jurisdictional Review mitigation action items using Mitigation Action Progress Report Worksheets (Appendix C of the Fort Bend County HMP Update). Complete Online Planner Survey (using SurveyMonkey) with evaluation of plan process. Perform updates to Mitigation Strategy to edit/add/omit actions identified during monitoring activities. Conduct post-disaster review of community annex in order to update for significant occurrences, construction of new critical infrastructure or facilities, changes in jurisdictional boundaries and development. Participate in MPC for 5-year HMP update process. Every 12 months Every 12 months As needed Village of Fairchilds, Village Hall, Mayor Village of Fairchilds, Village Hall, Mayor Village of Fairchilds, Village Hall, Village Secretary 6

10 Section 2: Fairchilds Jurisdictional Hazards This section contains Fairchilds hazard profiles for each natural hazard included in the Fort Bend County HMP Update. Profiles include the following information: Location - the area where the hazard is known to occur. Previous Occurrences - a history of reported events for the hazard. Significant Previous Occurrences (when applicable) - notable hazard events within the community. Extent - the strength or magnitude of the hazard. Probability - the likelihood of the hazard event occurring in the future. Impact - the consequence or effect (or possible effect) of hazard events. Vulnerability Summary - identification of structures, systems, populations or assets susceptible to loss or damage. Hazard descriptions and extent scales for hazard magnitudes, are found in Chapter 2, the portion of the Fort Bend County HMP Update. When available, data specific to Fairchilds was used for hazard analysis. When no instances were reported specifically for the jurisdiction for regional hazards, County-level data was applied. State and national datasets were used to determine occurrence, extent, and the respective probabilities, rather than verbal testimonies, in an effort to retain data consistency. For some hazards, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Storm Events Database was used as the most comprehensive data available for hazards. As a result, injury and damage amounts shown for previous hazard occurrences do not always reflect the most recent totals. The Previous Occurrences section for each hazard identifies instances in which this may occur. Verbal testimony, when available, was integrated into impact or vulnerability summaries. Hazards profiled within the include: Drought Extreme Heat Severe Winter Storms Lightning Hailstorms Windstorms Tornadoes Expansive Soils Floods Land Subsidence Hurricanes/Tropical Storms Earthquakes Dam/Levee Failure Wildfires 7

11 Drought Drought: Location Drought occurs on a regional scale, therefore, all of the Village of Fairchilds is equally at risk as it can occur anywhere in the jurisdiction. Drought: Previous Occurrences The NOAA Storm Events Database documents 9 drought events for Fort Bend County since the year 1996 (see Figure FC.10). Although there were no drought events reported specifically for Fairchilds, the jurisdiction would have been affected by the events that were reported for the surrounding County area. Fatality, injury and damage amounts are shown in Figure FC.10, per the NOAA Storm Events Database. Community testimony indicates that these amounts do not reflect the most recent totals, however NOAA data is being used as the best source of publicly available information for the record period. Figure FC.10, Reported Drought Occurrence, Fort Bend County Location Date Type Fatalities Injuries Property Crop Damage ($) Damage ($) FORT BEND (ZONE) 4/1/1996 Drought FORT BEND (ZONE) 5/1/1996 Drought FORT BEND (ZONE) 6/1/1996 Drought FORT BEND (ZONE) 5/1/1998 Drought FORT BEND (ZONE) 6/1/1998 Drought FORT BEND (ZONE) 7/1/1998 Drought FORT BEND (ZONE) 8/1/1998 Drought 0 0 1,000,000 7,300,000 FORT BEND (ZONE) 8/1/2000 Drought FORT BEND (ZONE) 9/1/2000 Drought Total 0 0 $1,000,000 $7,300,000 (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, 2016) Drought: Significant Past Events The NOAA Storm Events Database had 3 years (1996, 1998, 2000) with reported events for Fort Bend County. However, the database did not include reports for the planning area of the well-known drought years of 2011, 2012, and U.S. Drought Monitor records indicate that 99% of the State was suffering at least severe drought conditions during the drought beginning in 2011, as indicated in an article from The Houston Chronicle explaining the drought period extending from 2011 through 2013 as one of the worst on record for the State (Berger, 2013). Maps illustrating drought conditions throughout these years are available through the U.S. Drought Monitor, and depict drought conditions of up to a category D4 for the planning area during these times (The National Drought Mitigation Center, 2017). Refer to Chapter 2, the portion of the Fort Bend County HMP Update, for a description of the U.S. Drought Monitor Drought Intensity Index. Drought: Extent Drought is measured by the U.S. Drought Monitor Drought Intensity Scale, which classifies drought by 5 categories, D0 through D4, with D4 being the most extreme drought condition. According to the reported previous drought occurrences in the jurisdiction, the maximum drought extent experienced is a Category D4 drought. 8

12 Drought: Probability Based on 6 years (1996, 1998, 2000, 2011, 2012, 2013) of drought events within 20 years (three reported through NOAA in addition to 3 well known drought years affecting the State), a drought event occurs approximately once every 3 years on average in Fort Bend County. Since drought events can happen anywhere throughout the HMP update area and occur on a regional scale, the Village s future probability is assumed to be similar to the surrounding County area. In the future, Fairchilds can expect a drought event approximately once every 3 years on average with up to a category D4 drought. Therefore, there is a 30% chance of a drought event in a given year. This information is outlined in Figure FC.11. Figure FC.11, Drought Probability Number of Years with Reported Event (Drought Year) Number of Years in Dataset Probability Drought: Impact Figure FC.12 lists the impact of drought from the years 1997 to 2017 for Fort Bend County according to the Drought Impact Reporter (DIR). The DIR is the nation s first comprehensive database of drought impacts. This database contains information from multiple Federal agencies, such as NOAA and United States Geological Survey (USGS), which categorizes drought impacts from a national to city level. While there are no impacts reported specifically for Fairchilds, the effects of drought are not confined to jurisdictional boundaries and occur on a regional scale. Impacts reported at the Fort Bend County level are applicable in illustrating impact to the Village. Figure FC.12, Reported Drought Impacts, Fort Bend County Fort Bend Drought Impacts Category # of Incidents Reported Agriculture 25 Business & Industry 2 Energy 1 Fire 10 Plants & Wildlife 10 Relief, Response & Restrictions 17 Society & Public Health 3 Tourism & Recreation 0 Water Supply & Quality 3 (University of Nebraska-Lincoln, 2016) 9

13 Drought: Vulnerability Summary The Village of Fairchilds utilizes well water. Although the Village has not previously experienced water shortages, efforts are made to conserve when necessary. The potential strain on public potable water availability with population growth is not a concern due to the Village being near to full development. 10

14 Extreme Heat Extreme Heat: Location Extreme heat occurs on a regional scale; therefore, all of the Village of Fairchilds is equally at risk as it can occur anywhere in the jurisdiction. Extreme Heat: Previous Occurrences NOAA s Online Weather Data (NOWData) provides temperature data ranging from 2000 to NOAA s National Weather Service (NWS) Heat Index (located in Chapter 2, the Risk Assessment portion of the Fort Bend County HMP Update) indicates that temperatures meeting or exceeding 90 F are designated with an Extreme Caution or greater warning classification. According to Houston Sugar Land Memorial Station, the closest local weather data collection center with comprehensive data, the mean number of days with a daily maximum temperature equal or greater than 90 F is 108 days. Currently, the greatest number of days during which the jurisdiction experienced extreme heat is 141 in 2011 while the highest temperature experienced was 108 F in August 2011 (a Danger NWS Heat Index classification). Houston Sugar Land Memorial Station is the closest reporting NOWData station to the jurisdiction and applies equally to Fairchilds due to the regional nature of extreme heat occurrence. Extreme Heat: Extent Extreme heat is classified by temperatures, as well as event level designations, within the NWS Heat Index. The extent of extreme heat that the Village has experienced can be derived from the data provided from NOWData at Houston Sugar Land Memorial Station since the year The highest daily mean temperature experienced was 108 F in August This event is classified by the NWS Heat Index as Danger. Refer to Chapter 2, the portion of the Fort Bend County HMP Update, for a description of heat extent scale, NOAA s NWS Heat Index. Extreme Heat: Probability The probability of future events can be determined by assessing historical averages. Since extreme heat events occur on a regional scale, Fairchild s future probability is assumed to be similar to the area surrounding Houston Sugar Land Memorial Station. Based on NOWData, the Village can expect, on average, approximately 108 days a year with temperatures equal or greater than 90 F, and up to a Danger warning classification per the NOAA NWS Heat Index. As extreme heat events have occurred every year since 2000, the probability of extreme heat affecting the community is 100% in any given year. Extreme Heat: Impact Extreme heat has physical impacts on the public and the infrastructure that supports them. According to the Texas Health Care Information Collection and Trauma Registry from the Texas Department of State Health Services Injury Epidemiology & Surveillance Branch, the following number of patients were received in Fort Bend County medical facilities for heat related injuries, as shown in Figure FC.13. Figure FC.13, Fort Bend County Hospital Inpatient Data, Extreme Heat E-Code Description Accident caused by excessive heat due to weather conditions (Texas Department of State Health Services - Injury Epidemiology & Surveillance Branch, 2017) 11

15 In addition to the physical impacts, an excessive heat event can also be the cause of cascading incidents. Electrical outages could occur due to the high demands of electricity needed to power cooling systems. A loss of critical resources, such as power, has significant impact on the entire population, with higher impacts to those with vulnerabilities to such conditions. The following portion of Fairchild s population, according to HAZUS-MH 3.2 updated Census 2010 population estimates, would be greatly impacted by the severe temperatures related to excessive heat and/or the loss of electrical energy in their dwellings. Population over 65 years old 70 Population under 16 years old 205 Economically Disadvantaged Population ($0-$20k) 46 Extreme Heat: Vulnerability Summary Fairchilds does not have a cooling station plan for the community. They have 1 public building that serves as Village Hall, however it does not have a generator back-up to provide a cool place in the event of a power outage during extreme heat events. 12

16 Severe Winter Storms Severe Winter Storms: Location Severe winter storms occur on a regional scale; therefore, all of the Village of Fairchilds is equally at risk. Severe Winter Storms: Previous Occurrences The NOAA Storm Events Database documents 7 winter storm events for Fort Bend County since the year 1997 (see Figure FC.14). Although there were no winter storm events reported specifically for Fairchilds, the jurisdiction would have been affected by the events that were reported for the surrounding County area. Fatality, injury and damage amounts are shown in Figure FC.14, per the NOAA Storm Events Database. Community testimony indicates that these amounts do not reflect the most recent totals, however NOAA data is being used as the best source of public information available for the recorded period. Figure FC.14, Winter Weather Occurrences, Fort Bend County Location Date Type Fatalities Injuries Property Crop Damage ($) Damage ($) FORT BEND (ZONE) 1/12/1997 Ice Storm FORT BEND (ZONE) 12/24/2004 Heavy Snow FORT BEND (ZONE) 1/16/2007 Ice Storm 0 0 2,000 0 FORT BEND (ZONE) 12/4/2009 Winter Storm FORT BEND (ZONE) 2/3/2011 Ice Storm FORT BEND (ZONE) 1/23/2014 Winter Storm FORT BEND (ZONE) 3/3/2014 Winter Storm Total 0 0 $2,000 $0 (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, 2016) Severe Winter Storms: Significant Past Events Regionally, there were significant winter weather events that impacted the Village, but were only reported as Fort Bend (Zone) in Figure FC.14. Refer to the Severe Winter Storms: Significant Past Events section within the Fort Bend Unincorporated Areas Annex for narratives discussing these events. Severe Winter Storms: Extent Ice accumulation is captured and measured with the Regional Snowfall Index (RSI) and the Sperry-Piltz Ice Accumulation (SPIA) Index, as detailed in Chapter 2, the portion of the Fort Bend County HMP Update. According to the reported previous winter weather occurrences in the jurisdiction, the maximum winter weather extent experienced is a RSI Category 2 snowfall event or SPIA Ice Index Category 2 Ice event. Refer to Chapter 2, the portion of the Fort Bend County HMP Update, for a description of winter weather extent scales. 13

17 Severe Winter Storms: Probability Based on 7 reported events from the NOAA Storm Events Database in 19 years, a winter weather event occurs approximately every 3 years on average in Fort Bend County. There were no events reported specifically for the Village. Since these events can happen anywhere throughout the HMP update area and occur on a regional scale, Fairchild s future probability is assumed to be similar to the surrounding County areas. The jurisdiction can expect a winter weather event approximately once every 3 years on average in the future, with up to a RSI Category 2 snowfall event or SPIA Ice Index Category 2 Ice event. Therefore, there is a 37% chance of a severe winter storm event in a given year. This information is outlined in Figure FC.15. Figure FC.15, Severe Winter Storms Probability Number of Reported Events Number of Years in Dataset Probability Severe Winter Storms: Impact In addition to the physical impacts, a severe winter storm event can also be the cause of cascading incidents. Electrical outages could occur due to the high demands of electricity needed to power heating systems. A loss of critical resources, such as power, has significant impact on the entire population, with higher impacts to those with vulnerabilities to such conditions. The following portion of Fairchild s population, according to HAZUS-MH 3.2 updated Census 2010 population estimates, would be greatly impacted by the extreme temperature conditions related to severe winter storms and/or the loss of electrical energy in their dwellings. Population over 65 years old 70 Population under 16 years old 205 Economically Disadvantaged Population ($0-$20k) 46 An organization called Inside Energy ( provides a compiled database outlining 15 years of power outages across the United States from annual data available at the Department of Energy. Within the database, the following winter storm events affected electrical availability in the areas in or near Fort Bend County (shown in Figure FC.16). Figure FC.16, Winter Weather Related Power Outages, Fort Bend Surrounding Areas Event Start Year Start Date End Date Respondent Location Customers Description Time Affected Winter Storm /11/ :00 p.m. 2/15/2010 Oncor Electric Delivery Company Dallas/Fort Worth and East Texas 500,000 Winter Storm /12/2010 5:00 a.m. 2/12/2010 American Electric Power East Texas, Western Arkansas, Northern Louisiana 52,999 14

18 Figure FC.16, Winter Weather Related Power Outages, Fort Bend Surrounding Areas, Cont d Event Description Severe Weather - Winter Storm Severe Weather - Ice/Snow Although there were no reports specifically for Fairchilds, data available from the Texas Department of Transportation s Crash Records Information System shows that between the years of 2010 and 2017, Rural Fort Bend County experienced 14 crashes related to sleet/hail conditions with 3 possible injuries sustained from these crashes. Since winter weather occurs on a regional scale, it is assumed that weather related crashes in the surrounding County area would be similar to those experienced in these conditions within Fairchilds. Figure FC.17, Winter Weather Related Crashes, Rural Fort Bend County County Rural Fort Bend County Rural Fort Bend County Rural Fort Bend County Rural Fort Bend County Rural Fort Bend County Rural Fort Bend County Rural Fort Bend County Rural Fort Bend County Rural Fort Bend County Year Fatality Start Date Incapacitating Injury Non- Incapacitating Start Time /25/ :45 AM 12/28/2012 Entergy /6/2013 1:51 AM 12/11/2013 Possible Injury Crash Year Street Name Surface Condition Weather Condition CRABB RIVER RD Ice Sleet/Hail US59SB Ice Sleet/Hail SH0099 Ice Sleet/Hail FM0762 Ice Sleet/Hail W BELLFORT Ice Sleet/Hail FM1462 Ice Sleet/Hail S MASON RD Wet Sleet/Hail End Date Respondent Location Customers Affected Arkansas; Louisiana; 242,509 Mississippi; Texas Oncor Electric Delivery Company LLC STARBRIDGE LAKE LN Greater Houston, Texas Wet 881,000 Public Appeal due to Severe Weather - Cold /6/2014 7:01 AM 1/7/2014 ERCOT Texas NA NA - No data available (Wirfs-Brock, 2014) Sleet/Hail SH0099 Ice Sleet/Hail 15

19 Figure FC.17, Winter Weather Related Crashes, Rural Fort Bend County, Cont d County Fatality Incapacitating Injury Non- Incapacitating Possible Injury Crash Year Street Name Surface Condition Weather Condition Rural Fort Bend County Rural Fort Bend County Rural Fort Bend County Rural Fort Bend County Rural Fort Bend County WILLIAMS WAY BLVD Severe Winter Storms: Vulnerability Summary Fairchilds has many overhead power lines that provide electrical utility to residences and businesses. In the event of a winter storm, the electrical supply needed to heat homes can become jeopardized if the power line is compromised. Lines and connections can be damaged due to ice and snow loading or fallen branches. Residential streets maintained by the Village are not sanded in the event of a severe winter storm because the Village does not own sanding equipment. The County assists with sanding, when necessary. Ice Sleet/Hail FM 1093 Ice Sleet/Hail WILLIAMS WAY BLVD E WESTPARK TOLL RD Ice Ice Sleet/Hail Sleet/Hail FM1489 Ice Sleet/Hail Crash Records Information System Query for Accidents in Fort Bend County from from non-clear Weather Conditions (Texas Department of Transportation, 2017) 16

20 Lightning Lightning: Location The entire Village of Fairchilds is exposed to some degree of lightning hazard. Since lightning can occur at any location, lightning events can be experienced anywhere within the jurisdiction. Lightning: Previous Occurrences Figure FC.18 reflects Fairchilds within the area that was calculated to receive approximately 15 to 18 lightning 2016) strikes per square mile per year according to National Lightning Detection Network (NLDN) data for the years 1997 to There were no lightning events reported specifically for the jurisdiction in the NOAA Storm Events Database. Figure FC.18, Average Annual Lightning Density, Village of Fairchilds (Vaisala NLDN, Lightning: Extent Due to the lack of reported occurrences, there is not sufficient data to determine the maximum Lightning Activity Level (LAL) for the jurisdiction (refer to Chapter 2, the portion of the Fort Bend County HMP Update, for a description of the lightning extent scale LAL Grids). However, with the data available, the extent of lightning events that Fairchilds has experienced can be derived from the NOAA/ NLDN data in Figure FC.18. The data suggests that Fairchilds, which is 2.14 sq. miles, can receive up to 15 to 18 strikes per square mile per year. 17

21 Lightning: Probability Since lightning can occur at any location, lightning events could be experienced anywhere within the jurisdiction. Based on the data provided in Figure FC.18, Fairchilds can expect future events to fall in line with NLDN data from previous years with an average occurrence of up to approximately 15 to 18 lightning strikes per square mile per year. Lightning: Impact In addition to the physical impacts, lightning events can also be the cause of additional cascading incidents, such as electrical outage events, due to the impact that lightning strikes can have on electrical utility infrastructure. A loss of critical resources such as power has significant impact on the entire population, with higher impacts to those with vulnerabilities to such conditions. The following portion of Fairchilds population, according to HAZUS-MH 3.2 updated Census 2010 population estimates, would be greatly impacted by the loss of electrical energy in their dwellings. Population over 65 years old 70 Population under 16 years old 205 Economically Disadvantaged Population ($0-$20k) 46 An organization called Inside Energy ( provides a compiled database outlining 15 years of power outages across the United States from annual data available at the Department of Energy. Within the database, the following thunderstorm/severe storm events affected electrical availability in the areas in or near Fort Bend County. Figure FC.19, Thunderstorm Related Power Outages, Fort Bend Surrounding Areas Event Start Year Start Date End Date Respondent Location Customers Description Time Affected Houston, Texas and Strong CenterPoint 62,500 at /11/2004 3:30 p.m. 5/11/2004 surrounding Thunderstorms Energy peak suburban areas Houston, Texas and Strong 10:00 CenterPoint /23/ /24/2004 surrounding 119,000 Thunderstorms p.m. Energy suburban areas Houston, CenterPoint Texas and Strong /8/2005 3:00 p.m. 5/8/ ,000 Thunderstorms Strong Thunderstorms /29/2005 8:00 p.m. 5/30/2005 Energy Houston Electric CenterPoint Energy Houston Electric surrounding suburban areas Houston, Texas and surrounding suburban areas 123,000 18

22 Figure FC.19 Thunderstorm Related Power Outages, Fort Bend Surrounding Areas, Cont d Event Description Severe Thunderstorms Severe Thunderstorms Severe Thunderstorms Severe Weather - Thunderstorms Severe Weather - Thunderstorms (Wirfs-Brock, 2014) Year Start Date Start Time /3/2008 1:30 a.m. 8/3/ /17/2008 9:01 a.m. 6/19/ /5/2011 5:30 AM 6/6/ /20/2012 2:27 PM 4/21/ /16/2013 4:58 PM 8/17/2013 End Date Respondent Location Customers Affected Entergy Corporation Oncor Electric Delivery Company LLC CenterPoint Energy CenterPoint Energy CenterPoint Energy Mississippi, Louisiana, Texas North, Central and East Texas Houston Metro-Area, Texas Metropolitan Houston, Texas Houston Service Area Texas 59, ,393 78, , ,681 In addition to effects to human life and infrastructure, lightning strikes can also cause a cascading disaster through wildfires. According to the National Fire Protection Association (NFPA), during , U.S. local fire departments responded to an average of 22,600 fires per year that were started by lightning. These fires caused an average of 9 civilian deaths, 53 civilian injuries and $451 million in direct property damage per year (National Fire Protection Association, 2013). The source also cites that fires are more common in June through August and in the late afternoon and evening. Lightning: Vulnerability Summary Fairchilds does not have any specific communications concerns, nor do they have stands of dried or heavy vegetation that could serve as fuel if a lightning strike were to ignite a blaze. The community does not have generator back-up for the Fire Department and this could result in an interruption in radio communication, affecting emergency response. 19

23 Hailstorms Hailstorms: Location The entire Village of Fairchilds is exposed to some degree of hail hazard. Since hail can occur at any location, hail events can be experienced anywhere within the planning area. NOAA s National Severe Storms Laboratory (NSSL) used historical data from 1980 to 1999 to estimate the daily probability of hail occurrences of at least ¾ diameter hail across the Country. Figure FC.20 shows the average number of hail days per year determined for the Village. The density of hail days per year in the map s legend indicates the probable number of hail days for each 25-square-mile cell within the contoured zone. It should be noted that the density number does not indicate the number of events that can be expected within each cell, rather the average number of days per year with 1 or more events occurring within each cell. According to this calculation, Fairchilds can expect 2 hail days per year. Figure FC.20, National Hail Days Per Year, Village of Fairchilds (National Severe Storms Laboratory, 2016) Hailstorms: Previous Occurrences Since hail can occur at any location, hail events could be experienced anywhere within the jurisdiction. While Fairchilds has not had any previous occurrences reported through the NOAA Storm Events Database, if an event were to occur, it would be similar in size and magnitude to events within the surrounding County area. Figure FC.21 lists the 37 hail events reported for Fort Bend County and its unincorporated jurisdictions since the year

24 Fatality, injury and damage amounts are shown in Figure FC.21, per the NOAA Storm Events Database. Community testimony indicates that these amounts do not reflect the most recent totals, however NOAA data is being used as the best source of public information available for the record period. Figure FC.21, Hail Occurrences, Fort Bend County Location Date Type Extent (mm) Fatalities Injuries Property Damage ($) Crop Damage ($) FORT BEND CO. 11/22/1961 Hail FORT BEND CO. 2/4/1964 Hail FORT BEND CO. 2/4/1964 Hail FORT BEND CO. 6/1/1967 Hail FORT BEND CO. 4/22/1968 Hail FORT BEND CO. 4/30/1975 Hail FORT BEND CO. 5/9/1981 Hail FORT BEND CO. 5/9/1981 Hail FORT BEND CO. 5/14/1981 Hail FORT BEND CO. 2/10/1985 Hail FORT BEND CO. 2/5/1986 Hail FORT BEND CO. 2/22/1992 Hail FORT BEND CO. 4/19/1992 Hail FORT BEND CO. 5/1/1993 Hail FORT BEND CO. 10/12/1993 Hail ,000 0 FORT BEND CO. 10/12/1993 Hail ,000 0 FORT BEND CO. 10/12/1993 Hail ,000 0 FORT BEND CO. 4/5/1994 Hail ,000 0 FORT BEND CO. 4/5/1994 Hail ,000 0 FORT BEND CO. 4/5/1994 Hail ,000 0 FORT BEND CO. 4/5/1994 Hail ,000 0 FORT BEND CO. 11/2/1995 Hail ,000 0 GUY 5/10/1999 Hail ,000 0 CLODINE 5/30/1999 Hail ,000 0 GUY 5/30/1999 Hail ,000 0 CLODINE 11/12/2000 Hail ,000 0 CLODINE 3/30/2002 Hail ,000 0 FRESNO 3/30/2002 Hail ,000 0 CLODINE 6/16/2002 Hail ,000 0 CLODINE 6/18/2008 Hail ,000 0 CLODINE 6/18/2008 Hail ,000 0 FRESNO 6/19/2008 Hail ,000 0 CLODINE 1/9/2012 Hail ,000 0 FRESNO 4/4/2012 Hail ,

25 Figure FC.21, Hail Occurrences, Fort Bend County, Cont d Location Date Type Extent (mm) Fatalities Injuries Property Damage ($) Crop Damage ($) CRABB 4/16/2015 Hail FRESNO 5/26/2015 Hail DEWALT 6/18/2016 Hail Total 0 0 $317,500 $0 (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, 2016) Figure FC.22, Hailstorms Probability Hailstorms: Extent The Tornado and Storm Research Organization (TORRO) created a hail extent index to measure hail called the Hailstorm Intensity Scale. According to the reported previous hail occurrences in the surrounding areas, the maximum hail extent experienced had hailstones up to 2 inches (50.8 mm) in diameter, corresponding to a TORRO Hailstorm Intensity Scale classification of Destructive. Refer to Chapter 2, the portion of the Fort Bend County HMP Update, for hail extent scale descriptions. Hailstorms: Probability Figure FC.20 reports 2 hail days per year as a result of NLDN s nationwide analysis. Since this calculation is based on national data, a more specific calculation based on local-level NOAA reports was utilized to calculate probability. Based on 37 reported events in 55 years, a hail event occurs approximately every 1 to 2 years on average in Fort Bend County. Since hail events can happen anywhere throughout the HMP update area, Fairchild s future probability is assumed to be similar to the surrounding County area. The Village can expect a hail event approximately once every 1 to 2 years on average in the future, with hail up to 2 inches (50.8 mm) in diameter, corresponding to a TORRO Hailstorm Intensity Scale classification of Destructive. Therefore, there is a 67% chance of a hailstorm event in a given year. This information is outlined in Figure FC.22. Number of Reported Events Number of Years in Dataset Probability Hailstorms: Impact Although there are no specific occurrences for which hailstorm damages are captured from the NOAA database, based on the maximum hail extent experienced 2 inches (50.8 mm) in the surrounding County area, the TORRO Hailstorm Intensity Scale (found in Chapter 2, the portion of the Fort Bend County HMP Update) indicates that impact can be expected to include any of the following: 22

26 Varying degrees of damage to vegetation and crops Damage to plastic structures Varying degrees of damage to glass Paint and wood scored Vehicle bodywork damage Bodywork of grounded aircraft dented Brick walls pitted Severe roof damage Risk of serious injuries Hailstorms: Vulnerability Summary The Village has not experienced any significant hail storm events that have caused significant damage. The Village vehicle includes a firefighting apparatus for the Fairchilds Volunteer Department, and it has a covered parking area. Fairchilds does not have any other heavy equipment or vehicles that require protection. Fairchilds residents who live in manufactured or mobile homes face more vulnerability to hail than site-built homes and are a cause for concern and consideration. 23

27 Windstorms Windstorms: Location The entire Village of Fairchilds is exposed to some degree of wind hazard. Since wind can occur at any location, wind events can be experienced anywhere within the planning area. NOAA s NSSL used historical data from 1980 to 1999 to estimate the daily probability of wind occurrences across the U.S., with gusts of at least 58 mph. Figure FC.23 shows the estimates for wind days determined for the Village. The density of wind days per year in the map s legend indicates the probable number of wind days for each 25-square-mile cell within the contoured zone. It should be noted that the density number does not indicate the number of events that can be expected within each cell, rather the average number of days per year with 1 or more events occurring within each cell. According to this calculation, Fairchilds can expect 3 wind days per year. Figure FC.23, National Wind Days Per Year, Village of Fairchilds (National Severe Storms Laboratory, 2016) Windstorms: Previous Occurrences According to the NOAA Storm Events Database, there was 1 documented wind event listed for the Village of Fairchilds and 51 documented events listed for Fort Bend County and its unincorporated jurisdictions from year While the database lists events since 1955 for the County, events were not documented per jurisdiction until The wind event reported for the Village is shown in Figure FC.23. Fatality, injury, and damage amounts are shown in Figure FC.24, per the NOAA Storm Events Database. Community testimony indicates that these amounts do not reflect the most recent totals, however NOAA data is being used as the best source of public information available for the record period. 24

28 Figure FC.24, Reported Wind Events, Village of Fairchilds Location Date Type Extent (knots) Fatalities Injuries Property Damage ($) Crop Damage ($) Thunderstorm FAIRCHILDS 6/20/1996 NA , Wind NA - No data available (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, 2016) Windstorms: Extent Wind is measured by the Beaufort Wind Scale that relates wind speed to observed conditions on land and sea. Although the reported wind occurrence for Fairchilds within the NOAA Storm Events Database did not include a magnitude, it can be assumed that events within the Village would be similar in magnitude to those in the surrounding County area. As described in the Windstorms: Extent section of the Fort Bend Unincorporated Annex, the surrounding area has experienced wind up to 70 knots, a Beaufort Wind Scale Classification of Hurricane. Refer to Chapter 2, the portion of the Fort Bend County HMP Update, for a description of wind extent scales. Windstorms: Probability Figure FC.23 reports 3 wind days per year as a result of NLDN s nationwide analysis. Since this calculation is based on national data, a more specific calculation based on local-level NOAA reports was utilized to calculate probability. Based on 1 reported event in 22 years, the Fairchilds can expect a wind event of up to 70 knots approximately once every 22 years on average in the future (Beaufort Wind Scale Classification: Hurricane) according to previous occurrences and extents in the Village and surrounding County area. Therefore, there is a 4% chance of a windstorm event in a given year. This information is outlined in Figure FC.25. Figure FC.25, Windstorms Probability Number of Reported Number of Years in Dataset Probability Events Windstorms: Impact Damages can be expected to be in line with the wind magnitude in knots according to the Beaufort Wind Scale detailed in Chapter 2, the portion of the Fort Bend County HMP Update. As described in the Windstorms: extent section, it can be assumed that events within the Village would be similar in magnitude to those in the surrounding County area. As described in the Windstorms: Extent section of the Fort Bend Unincorporated Annex, the surrounding area has experienced wind up to 70 knots, a Beaufort Wind Scale Classification of Hurricane, involving trees being broken or uprooted as well as considerable structural damage. Mobile and manufactured homes are most susceptible to windstorm damage as they may not have been installed or anchored correctly and can be moved and overturned in high winds. According to HAZUS, the jurisdiction contains 92 mobile and manufactured homes which comprises approximately 32% of the total building count. 25

29 Windstorms: Vulnerability Summary Fairchilds has previously experienced debris accumulation on roadways during windstorm events. Such incidents could negatively impact the ability of public safety officials to access emergency calls. The existence of overhead power lines also poses a vulnerability to electrical outages. The lack of a generator at the Fire Department poses a possible interruption to emergency response functions. 26

30 Tornadoes Tornadoes: Location The entire Village of Fairchilds is exposed to some degree of tornado hazard. Since tornadoes can occur at any location, tornado events can be experienced anywhere within the planning area. NOAA s NSSL used historical data from 1980 to 1999 to estimate the daily probability of tornado occurrences across the U.S., regardless of tornado magnitude. Figure FC.26 shows the average number of tornado days determined for the Village. The density of average tornado days per year in the map s legend indicates the probable number of tornado days for each 25-square-mile cell within the contoured zone. This density number does not indicate the number of events that can be expected within each cell, rather the average number of days per year with 1 or more events occurring within each cell. Figure FC.26, National Tornado Days Per Year, Village of Fairchilds (National Severe Storms Laboratory, 2016) Tornadoes: Previous Occurrences According to the NOAA Storm Events Database, there was 1 documented tornado event listed for Fairchilds and 29 documented events listed for Fort Bend County since year While the database lists events since 1950 for the County, events were not documented per jurisdiction until The tornado events reported for the Village of are listed in Figure FC

31 Fatality, injury and damage amounts are shown in Figure FC.27, per the NOAA Storm Events Database. Community testimony indicates that these amounts do not reflect the most recent totals, however NOAA data is being used as the best source of public information available for the record period. Figure FC.27: Tornado Events, Village of Fairchilds Property Crop Location Date Type Extent Fatalities Injuries Damage ($) Damage ($) FAIRCHILDS 5/30/1999 Tornado F ,000 0 (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, 2016) Tornadoes: Extent Tornadoes are measured by severity on the Enhanced Fujita Scale, with a range from 0-6, 6 being most catastrophic. According to the reported previous tornado occurrences in the jurisdiction, the maximum tornado extent experienced was a category F1. Refer to Chapter 2, the portion of the Fort Bend County HMP Update, for a description of tornado extent scales, Fujita (F) Scale and Operational Enhanced Fujita (EF) Scale. Tornadoes: Probability Figure FC.26 reports 1 tornado day per year as a result of NLDN s nationwide analysis. Since this calculation is based on national data, a more specific calculation based on local-level NOAA reports was utilized to calculate probability. Based on 1 reported event in 23 years, Fairchilds can expect a tornado event approximately once every 23 years on average in the future, with up to a F1 magnitude. Therefore, there is a 4% chance of a tornado event in a given year. This information is outlined in Figure FC.28. Figure FC.28 Tornadoes Probability Number of Reported Events Number of Years in Dataset Probability Tornadoes: Impact The wind speeds and debris caused by tornadoes can impact all residents in the community. The Village has experienced a tornado at a F1 level in the past. If similar events were to happen in the future, the type of impacts that the Village could expect associated with that magnitude would include: Light Damage - Broken branches; shallow rooted trees pushed over; some chimney damage. Moderate Damage - Surface damage to roofs; mobile homes pushed off foundation; moving vehicles pushed off the road. (Tornado Facts, 2016) Additional impacts from tornado events could include downed utility poles, communication towers, street signals, and debris created from residential and commercial property. Critical infrastructure could be disrupted, resulting in periods of impact to service due to the lack of backup utility resources. See Lightning Impact section for more information on utility interruption. 28

32 Tornadoes: Vulnerability Summary There are not any temporary shelters available to accommodate residents affected by a tornado. Sheltering efforts would need to be coordinated through Fort Bend County. The Village does not have reverse-911 system for emergency communications source for residents, nor do they maintain outdoor warning sirens. 29

33 Expansive Soils Expansive Soils: Location Areas within the Village of Fairchilds with structures that are underlain by soils containing clays with swelling potential are most affected by expansive soils. Figure 2.13 within Chapter 2 (the portion of the Fort Bend County HMP Update) shows the location of expansive soil areas for the Village. Expansive Soils: Previous Occurrences There was no documentation of site-specific past events for structural damage due to expansive soils from local, state, or national databases queried. Expansive soils cannot be documented as a time-specific event, except when they lead to structural and infrastructure damage. There are no specific damage reports or historical records of events in the Village, however future events can occur. Expansive Soils: Extent According to the USGS Expansive Soils Regions, Figure 2.13 in Chapter 2 (the portion of the Fort Bend County HMP Update), less than 50% of the planning area is underlain with soils with clay textures that have high shrink-swell properties. Expansive Soils: Probability Due to the minimal amount of swelling potential and the lack of reported events, the probability of a future event is low (unlikely in next 10 years). Expansive Soils: Impact Building standards help mitigate the impact to an extent. Besides new construction, a portion of the residences in the community were constructed when the Village was not yet incorporated. Since building standards were not in place for this earlier development, it is possible that those structures could be impacted by expansive soils in the event of shrink-swell activity. Expansive Soils: Vulnerability Summary The structures in the community were constructed on average between 20 and 30 years ago, before the community was incorporated and before National Building Codes were adopted with specific codes for foundation work. As time progresses and the structures continue to age, the number of foundation issues could increase. A general lack of concern for the hazard creates a vulnerability due to the resulting lack of individual-level (homeowner) mitigation action for expansive soils. 30

34 Floods Floods: Location The location of the 1% (100 year) Annual Chance Event (ACE) floodplains are shown in Figure FC.29 and are based off of the best public information available to date. These are the locations within the planning area that are most affected by flooding. Figure FC.30 provides the total acreage in the jurisdiction that is located in the 1% ACE floodplain. D R AF T Figure FC.29, Special Flood Hazard Areas, Village of Fairchilds (Texas Natural Resources Information System, 2011) Figure FC.30, Village of Fairchilds Floodplain Acreage 100yr (1%) Floodplain 500yr (0.2%) Floodplain Acres Acres (Includes Floodway) (Includes 100yr) Shaded Zone X - Protected by Levee * 0 *This area does not have current effective 0.2% ACE floodplains mapped. It is assumed that the 0.2% ACE is at least the area of the 1% ACE. 31

35 Floods: Previous Occurrences Fort Bend County was included in 3 Federal disaster declarations between 2015 and 2016, all related to flooding. Although there were no flood events reported specifically for the Village of Fairchilds in the NOAA Storm Events Database, Figure FC.31 lists the 19 documented events reported for Fort Bend County and its unincorporated jurisdictions from year Due to the size and extent of some flood occurrences as well as the regional nature of reports in the NOAA Storm Events Database, the Village may have been affected by many of the events that were reported for the surrounding areas. Fatality, injury and damage amounts are shown in Figure FC.31, per the NOAA Storm Events Database. Community testimony indicates that these amounts do not reflect the most recent totals, however NOAA data is being used as the best source of public information available for the record period. Figure FC.31, Flood Events, Fort Bend County Location Date Type Fatalities Injuries Property Crop Damage ($) Damage ($) SE COUNTY 1/27/1997 Flash Flood 0 0 5,000 0 COUNTYWIDE 4/25/1997 Flash Flood 0 0 5,000 0 FORT BEND (ZONE) 10/17/1998 Flood COUNTYWIDE 10/18/1998 Flash Flood ,000 0 COUNTYWIDE 10/18/1998 Flash Flood FORT BEND (ZONE) 11/12/1998 Flood COUNTYWIDE 11/12/1998 Flash Flood 0 0 3,000 0 COUNTYWIDE 5/30/1999 Flash Flood ,000 0 EAST PORTION 6/7/2001 Flash Flood EAST PORTION 6/8/2001 Flash Flood EAST PORTION 6/9/2001 Flash Flood COUNTYWIDE 8/30/2001 Flash Flood ,000 0 SOUTH PORTION 8/31/2001 Flash Flood ,000 0 CLODINE 11/23/2004 Flash Flood TAVENER 5/12/2012 Flash Flood ,000 0 CLODINE 4/27/2013 Flash Flood 0 0 1,000,000 0 CLODINE 5/26/2014 Flash Flood CLODINE 5/25/2015 Flash Flood HOBBY 10/31/2015 Flash Flood Total 1 0 $2,923,000 $0 (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, 2016) Floods: Significant Past Events Due to the size and extent of some flood occurrences, as well as the regional nature of reports in the NOAA Storm Events Database, the Village may have been affected by many of the events that were reported for the surrounding areas. Refer to the Floods: Significant Past Events section within the Fort Bend Unincorporated Annex for descriptions, including the 3 previous Federal disaster declarations referred to in Floods: Previous Occurrences above. 32

36 Floods: Extent Flood extent is described by a combination of ground elevation, river heights, 100 year Water Surface Elevations (WSE s) and HAZUS depth grids. While there are not any WSE s in the jurisdiction, a USGS Gage and HAZUS depth grids are used to measure flood extent. Areas along Fairchilds Creek in the jurisdiction are exposed to some of the greatest flood extents. An example of flooding within the jurisdiction is the area along Fairchilds Creek at Fairchild s Rd. This area has an approximate overbank ground elevation of 69 feet with an intersecting 100 year HAZUS depth grid of 1 foot. For a 100 year event, water depth of approximately 1 foot can be expected within this area. A further analysis of Fairchilds Creek is described below. With Fairchilds Creek having an approximate normal in-channel elevation of 65 feet at Fairchilds Rd (per Light Detection and Ranging [LiDAR] and USGS gauge data) and a HAZUS 100 year depth of 7 feet, flood depths would be 7 feet. Such an event is categorized as an Action Stage. Refer to the Water Depth Extent Scale in Chapter 2 (the portion of the Fort Bend County HMP Update). Floods: Probability Probability has been calculated on the basis of NOAA reported events, as a standard, consistent calculation method for all hazards profiled with the Fort Bend County HMP. Based on 19 reported events in 19 years, a flood event occurs approximately once per year on average in Fort Bend County and its unincorporated jurisdictions. Due to the size and extent of some flood occurrences, as well as the regional nature of reports in the NOAA Storm Events Database, Fairchilds future probability is assumed to be similar to the surrounding County area. The Village can expect a flood event approximately once per year on average in the future, with flood water depths in the category of a Action Stage. Therefore, it can be assumed that there is a 100% chance of a flood event in a given year. This information is outlined in Figure FC.32. Figure FC.32, Floods Probability Number of Reported Events Number of Years in Dataset Probability Floods: Impact The following describes the inventory counts and building replacement values for the entire jurisdictional area. Figure FC.33, Building Counts, Village of Fairchilds Residential Commercial Other Total Figure FC.34, Building Replacement Value, Village of Fairchilds Building ($) Content ($) Total ($) 49,894,183 27,693,819 77,588,002 33

37 A Probabilistic 100-year Return Period HAZUS-MH 3.2 analysis was run on the participating communities. HAZUS results are calculated to census blocks. This analysis utilized the 2013 USGS National Elevation Dataset (NED) 1/3 arc-second Digital Elevation Model (DEM). These blocks were then intersected with the participating community to run a weighted area analysis to get jurisdictional results. The following describes results of the 100-year Return (1% Annual Chance Event) weighted area analysis. HAZUS-MH Results General Building Stock Damage HAZUS estimates that 2 buildings will be at least moderately damaged within the Village. At least moderately damaged is defined by HAZUS as greater than 10% damage to a building. No buildings were estimated to received Substantial Damage. Substantial Damage is defined by HAZUS as greater than 50% damage to a building. Figure FC.35, Building Damage Counts, Village of Fairchilds Residential Buildings Commercial Buildings Other Buildings Total Buildings Building-Related Losses Exposed Value is the total building and content values for structures within the community. The exposed value for the community is $77,588,002. The total building-related losses were $242 for this scenario. This represents 0.01% of the total replacement value of the community. Loss values are divided into building and content loss dollars. Figure FC.36, Building-Related Losses, Village of Fairchilds Building Loss ($) Content Loss ($) Total Loss ($) Essential Facility Damage HAZUS does not estimate any critical facilities or infrastructure to be out of service for more than 1 day on the day of the event. Additionally, the model estimates that 100 of available hospital beds are ready for use by patients already in the hospital and those injured by an event. Debris Generation HAZUS estimates the amount of debris that will be generated in this scenario at a total of 1 ton. If the building debris tonnage is converted to an estimated number of truckloads, it will require 1 truckload (with 1 to 25 tons per truck) to remove. Shelter Requirements HAZUS estimates the number of households that are expected to be displaced from their homes due to the flood and the associated potential evacuation. HAZUS also estimates those people displaced that will require accommodations in temporary public shelters. The model estimates no one will be displaced or need temporary shelter in public shelters due to the flood. 34

38 Floods: Vulnerability Summary Instances of localized structural flooding can and do occur outside of the mapped SFHA. Because the structures located outside of the SFHA floodplain are not required to construct their finish floor elevations at or above an elevation based on regulatory flood elevations, it is possible for localized flooding to partially or fully inundate these structures. Older homes within the community that were constructed before the adoption of the Flood Insurance Rate Maps (FIRM) and passing of the flood damage prevention ordinance were permitted to construct at possibly higher risk elevations. National Flood Insurance Program Repetitive Loss (RL) Fairchilds is a current participant in the National Flood Insurance Program. As of February of 2017, the Village does not have any listed RL or SRL properties according to FEMA RL/SRL data and no claims have been made. 35

39 Land Subsidence Land Subsidence: Location Two major contributing factors to land subsidence are karst areas or groundwater depletion zones. Although the planning area is not within a designated karst region according to Texas Speleological Survey mapping (Texas Speleological Survey, 2017). The Village of Fairchilds is located within a known USGS groundwater depletion area, as illustrated in Figure FC.37. This figure shows groundwater depletion within the US from 1900 to 2008 where long-term cumulative depletion rates were calculated from 40 separate aquifers measuring the cumulative loss over that time. The Village is in an area of the Gulf Coast Aquifer estimated to have had a cumulative annual depletion of 25 to 50 cubic km over 108 years (1900 to 2008) (Leonard F. Konikow, 2013). Figure FC.37 also shows the locations of recent study sites discussed in the next section. Figure FC.37, Groundwater Depletion Zones, Village of Fairchilds (Groundwater depletion in the United States ( ), 2013) Land Subsidence: Previous Occurrences Fort Bend Subsidence District was formed in 1989 to provide groundwater withdrawal regulations in an effort to mitigate future subsidence events and regulate all areas within the County. The District s 2015 Annual Groundwater Report discusses compaction measurements taken from varied extensometer and GPS monitoring sites as part of a joint funding agreement with the District, the Harris-Galveston Subsidence District, the City of Houston, the Brazoria County Groundwater Conservation District, and the Lone Star Groundwater Conservation District. Extensometers measure deformation or displacement under a certain stress load, or in this case, compaction that is associated with land subsidence. 36

40 Extensometer sites that were equipped with GPS antennas atop the extensometers inner pipe and were used as Continuous Operating Reference Stations (CORS). Additional GPS sites were developed, Periodically Active Monitor Sites (PAMS), to calculate average weekly heights. This data was processed against the data calculated by the CORS sites to calculate subsidence rates at each site. The closest sites to the Village of Fairchilds are PAM 58, 14, 31 and (CORS) TXRS, illustrated on Figure FC.37 (Fort Bend Subsidence District, 2015). Figure FC.38 lists the reported rates. Although no monitoring sites were listed within the planning area, it can be assumed that the Village would experience similar rates of occurrence as those observed at the closest proximity sites. It should be noted that the reported subsidence rates do not take into account other factors that could have possibly contributed, such as extreme weather or seismic activity, however is the best data available. Figure FC.38, Observed Subsidence, Village of Fairchilds Monitoring Site Name 2015 One-Year Observed Subsidence (feet) PAM PAM PAM (CORS) TXRS Subsidence where negative and land-surface uplift where positive. (Fort Bend Subsidence District, 2015) Land Subsidence: Extent Land subsidence extent can be calculated by the depth in feet that has been lost or that has given way. According to the recent studies detailed in the Land Subsidence Previous Occurrences, of the sites measured near the planning area, the most subsidence observed in 2015 was PAM 31 at a rate of feet within 1 year. Land Subsidence: Probability The occurrence of subsidence is an ongoing process resulting from natural and human-induced causes. As seen in Figure 37, the entire Village of Fairchilds is located within a known groundwater depletion area. Additionally, with the documented occurrence of subsidence from recent studies, the probability of a future land subsidence event for the Village is high (probable in next 10 years) and can be assumed to be similar in extent to previous events in the area, up to feet each year. Land Subsidence: Impact When considering the impact of land subsidence, it is important to note that any area within the groundwater depletion zone could have structures and infrastructure located in and around the subsided area. The possible impact of isolated incidents within the region could include damage to any, but not all, of the 285 structures located in the zone in the unlikely event of a future occurrence. These structures are cumulatively valued at approximately $ 77,588,002 based on HAZUS building and content values. Land Subsidence: Vulnerability Summary The lack of incidences and testimonies of impact lends to a general dismissal of the risks of land subsidence. As the community experiences periods of depletion of groundwater, the risk of land subsidence is increased and may impact the community. As water may become a scarcer resource in the State, and in the County, a lack of mitigation could lead to increased damage to structures and roads. There is a focus group aimed at reducing the subsidence hazard, and helping to reduce vulnerability. 37

41 Hurricanes/Tropical Storms Hurricanes/Tropical Storms: Location Due to the regional nature of a hurricane or tropical storm event, the entire Village of Fairchilds is equally exposed to a hurricane or tropical storm. Figure FC.39 illustrates the location of the planning area with historical hurricane and tropical storm paths documented by NOAA. D R AF T Figure FC.39, Historical Hurricane/Tropical Storm Paths, Village of Fairchilds (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, 2016) Hurricanes/Tropical Storms: Previous Occurrences Previous events are listed in Figure FC.40 from NOAA Hurricane Tracker. Included events are those whose track, as defined as the path from the eye of the storm, was within 20 nautical miles of the County or those that are known to have impacted the area. As hurricanes and tropical storms are large and regional in nature, those whose path is near the planning area would still affect the area. Because hurricane and tropical storm events occur on a regional scale, all events and affected Fort Bend County have been included as they would impact the Village of Fairchilds. 38

42 Figure FC.40, Hurricanes/Tropical Storms Affecting Fort Bend County Storm Name Date Classification (highest at recorded point nearest planning area) Grace 08/30/ /02/2003 Tropical Storm Alicia 8/15/ /21/1983 H3 Allison 06/24/ /01/1989 Tropical Storm Allison 06/05/ /19/2001 Tropical Depression Cindy 09/16/ /20/1963 Tropical Depression Danielle 09/04/ /07/1980 Tropical Storm Dean 07/28/ /02/1995 Tropical Storm Delia 09/01/ /07/1973 Tropical Storm Elena 08/30/ /02/1979 Tropical Depression Unnamed /01/ /05/1871 Tropical Storm Unnamed /04/ /06/1888 Tropical Storm Unnamed /26/ /27/1899 Tropical Storm Unnamed /27/ /15/1900 H4 Unnamed /05/ /23/1915 H4 Unnamed /16/ /26/1921 H1 Unnamed /12/ /15/1932 H3 Unnamed /10/ /17/1938 Tropical Storm Unnamed /17/ /27/1941 H2 Unnamed /24/ /29/1945 H1 Unnamed /18/ /27/1947 H1 Unnamed /27/ /07/1949 H2 Unnamed /24/ /26/1974 Tropical Depression Unnamed /17/ /21/1980 Tropical Depression Unnamed /03/ /05/1981 Tropical Depression (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Office of Coastal Management, 2017) Hurricanes/Tropical Storms: Significant Past Events Since hurricane and tropical storm events can happen anywhere throughout the HMP update area and occur on a regional scale, the Village would have been affected by the events that were captured as affecting the surrounding County area. Refer to Fort Bend Unincorporated Area s Significant Occurrences for descriptions of significant events affecting the planning area. Hurricanes/Tropical Storms: Extent The Saffir-Simpson Scale measures pressure, wind speed, and storm surge in 5 categories, 5 being the most catastrophic. According to the previous hurricane and tropical storm occurrences in the planning area, the maximum hurricane extent experienced were Category 4 hurricanes in 1900 and Refer to Chapter 2, the portion of the Fort Bend County HMP Update, for a description of storm extents. 39

43 Hurricanes/Tropical Storms: Probability Based on 24 reported events in 145 years, a hurricane or tropical storm event occurs approximately every 6 years on average in Fort Bend County. Since hurricane and tropical storm events can happen anywhere throughout the HMP update area, the Village of Fairchild s future probability is assumed to be similar to the surrounding County area. In the future, the Village can expect an event approximately once every 6 years on average, of up to a magnitude of a Category 4 Hurricane based on historical extents for the planning area. Therefore, there is a 17% chance of a hurricane/tropical storm event in a given year. The 100 year maximum (100yr Max) wind speeds in Figure FC.41 below represent the maximum sustained (3 second) wind gusts of a 100 year hurricane event per census tract. When the jurisdiction covers multiple census tracts, the highest wind speed value is shown. Figure FC.41, Hurricanes/Tropical Storms Probability Number of Reported Events Number of Years in Dataset Probability 100yr Max Wind Speed (mph) Hurricanes/Tropical Storms: Impact A Probabilistic 100-year Return Period HAZUS-MH 3.2 analysis was run on the participating communities. The following describes the results of this analysis. HAZUS-MH Results General Building Stock Damage The total property damage losses were $1,107,000. The majority of damage can be expected to impact residential areas (93%). The remaining damages (7%) are for commercial, industrial, agricultural and religious buildings. It is estimated that 2 buildings will experience severe damage and 2 will be completely destroyed. Exposed Value is the total building and content values for structures within the community. Loss values are divided separately for building and content loss in dollars. Property damage losses are shown in Figure FC.42. Figure FC.42, Property Damage Losses, Village of Fairchilds Exposed Value ($) (Building + Content) Building Loss ($) Content Loss ($) Total Loss ($) 77,588, , ,000 1,107,000 Essential Facility Damage HAZUS does not estimate any critical facilities or infrastructure to be out of service for more than 1 day on the day of the event before the hurricane. Fort Bend County had 345 hospital beds available for use. On the day of the hurricane, the model estimates that 22 hospital beds (only 6%) are available for use by patients already in the hospital and those injured by the hurricane. After 1 week, 30% of the beds will be in service. By 30 days, 100% will be operational. 40

44 Debris Generation HAZUS estimates the amount of debris that will be generated by the hurricane at a total of 117 tons. Of the total amount brick/wood comprises 100% of the total. If the building debris tonnage is converted to an estimated number of truckloads, it will require 5 truckloads (with 1 to 25 tons per truck) to remove the building debris generated by the hurricane. For trees, the model estimates that a total of 10 tons of tree debris will be generated. The number of tree debris truckloads will depend on how the 10 tons (100 cubic yards) of tree debris are collected and processed. The volume of tree debris generally ranges from about 4 cubic yards per ton for chipped or compacted tree debris to about 10 cubic yards per ton for bulkier, uncompacted debris. Shelter Requirements HAZUS estimates the number of households that are expected to be displaced from their homes due to the hurricane and the number of displaced people that will require accommodations in temporary public shelters. The model estimates 2 households to be displaced due to the hurricane, however none will require temporary shelter. Hurricanes/Tropical Storms: Vulnerability Summary Similar to the impacts of windstorms, hailstorms, and lightning, Fairchilds can expect to be impacted with debris and possible utility interruptions of critical infrastructure during a hurricane or tropical storm event. In addition, the community s proximity to State Highway 36, and Fort Bend County s designation as a Pass-Through community, could lead to traffic delays during coastal evacuations. 41

45 Earthquakes Earthquakes: Location Locations within proximity to fault lines are typically the areas most at risk of earthquakes. As seen in Figure 2.20 within Chapter 2, the portion of the Fort Bend County HMP Update, the Village of Fairchilds is not within any proximity to USGS mapped fault lines as the closest line is over 50 miles west of Fort Bend County. Therefore, if an event were to occur, however unlikely, the entire planning area is equally at risk. Earthquakes: Previous Occurrences There have been no documented earthquake events for the Village according to USGS 1847 to 2015 data as illustrated in Figure 2.20 within Chapter 2, the portion of the Fort Bend County HMP Update. Earthquakes: Extent Earthquakes are measured by Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA). The FEMA How-To Guidance, Understanding Your Risks (FEMA 386-2, page 1-7), suggests the earthquake hazard should be profiled if the PGA is greater than 3%g, where PGA measures the acceleration of gravity (g). The PGA for the planning area is 1.88%g (see Earthquakes: Impact Section for a description of the HAZUS Analysis). This corresponds to the Modified Mercalli Scale Category IV, with light perceived shaking and no potential structure damage. HAZUS measures PGA on a census tract level. Cities within more than 1 census tract were assigned the highest PGA level to reflect the maximum possible extent. Refer to Chapter 2 for PGA and extent scale descriptions (the portion of the Fort Bend County HMP Update). Earthquakes: Probability As there have been no recorded previous occurrences of earthquakes for Fairchilds and the PGA is less than 2%g for the area as shown in Figure FC.43, the probability of an earthquake in the Village in the future is low (unlikely within the next 10 years). Figure FC.43, Earthquakes Probability Number of Reported Events Number of Years in Dataset 500yr PGA %g Earthquakes: Impact Fairchilds PGA is less than 3%g (0.03) and there have been no recorded earthquakes in or near the jurisdiction. Therefore, only a minimum level-1 HAZUS analysis was profiled using the 500-year probability event scenario. The HAZUS analysis produced a PGA of 1.88%g. HAZUS also produced $0 in building damages (Residential, Commercial, Agriculture, Religious and Government) from an event. Critical facilities and Infrastructure did not experience any loss of service. There were no critical facilities or infrastructure that experienced moderate to complete damage. No debris was generated from this event and no people or households required temporary housing. There were no moderate, extensive or completely damaged buildings by this event. HAZUS estimates no households are expected to be displaced from their homes or will require accommodations in temporary public shelters due to the earthquake. Additionally, the HAZUS analysis estimated that there will be no casualties or fatalities from this event. 42

46 Earthquakes: Vulnerability Summary As the Chapter 2 and HAZUS analysis state, the jurisdiction has a PGA of less than 3%g and does not have to be profiled (FEMA 386-2, page 1-7). Per HAZUS analysis, the jurisdiction can expect no loss of functionality for critical facilities and infrastructures, utility, transportation, and other essential services as defined in the Earthquakes: Impact section. Additionally, the Mercalli Scale describes the maximum PGA (see Chapter 2 portion of the Fort Bend County HMP Update) as Light with no damage to people or buildings. With a PGA of less than 3%g, no previous events within the jurisdiction and the nearest fault line approximately 50 miles northwest of the County, vulnerabilities for the jurisdiction are considered negligible. 43

47 Dam/Levee Failure Dam/Levee Failure: Location There are no known dams within the Village of Fairchilds according to US Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) National Inventory of Dams (NID) data. However small, non-documented private dams may exist within or upstream of the jurisdiction. The locations that would be affected by a dam failure event are those directly downstream at lower elevations than dams within or upstream from the HMP update area. According to the USACE National Levee Database (NLD), there are no known levees within the planning area. Dam/Levee Failure: Previous Occurrences There were no recorded dam or levee failure events found affecting the Village. Dam/Levee Failure: Extent There are no known dams within Fairchilds according to USACE NID data. However, privately owned, undocumented dams or levees could exist within or upstream of the planning area. These would most likely be small in size. As they are undocumented, there is insufficient data to determine Hazard Classification. Refer to Chapter 2, the portion of the Fort Bend County HMP Update for Dam and Levee Extent Scale descriptions. The extent of levee failure can be determined by assessing the amount of area being protected by the levee; a greater amount of area being protected offers greater opportunity for damage in the event of a failure. FEMA has developed flood zone categories to show different potential flood inundation areas. One such category is Shaded Zone X - Protected by Levee, areas of moderate flood hazard between the 100 year and 500 year floodplain extents. As there are no known levees within the jurisdiction, there are no FEMA flood hazard zones (such as Shaded Zone X Protected by Levee) to identify an extent for the jurisdiction. Dam/Levee Failure: Probability Fairchilds has had no previous occurrences of dam or levee failure reported. Considering the lack of previous events within the planning area, the probability of a dam or levee failure in the future for the Village is low (unlikely in the next 10 years). Dam/Levee Failure: Impact The impact of a dam/levee failure would affect the areas downstream of any non-reported, nondocumented private dams, should they exist. It is unknown how much damage would be caused if a failure were to occur, due to a lack of registry data regarding the size and hazard classification. Damage would likely be experienced by structures and roadways in close proximity to the related flood inundation area. Additionally, infrastructure that supports these homes and other parts of the Village could be interrupted or compromised. Dam/Levee Failure: Vulnerability Summary The registries referenced for the update of the Mitigation Plan do not show any documentation of dams or levees within the Village. There is a possibility of privately owned dams existing upstream of or within the Village. These unknown private dams could introduce a risk to structures and roadways downstream in the event of a dam breach. The likelihood of a dam breach increases without proper maintenance. 44

48 Wildfires Wildfires: Location The Texas A&M Forest Service Texas Wildfire Portal (TxWRAP) can be used to help communities understand their wildfire risk. Figure FC.44 below shows the location of TxWRAP s documented wildfire occurrences with Wildland Urban Interface (WUI) classifications within the Village of Fairchilds. The WUI illustrates areas of development that are abutting natural areas. Here, communities and the built environment have an increased vulnerability to a wildfire event. Wildfires can be ignited from a variety of sources including lightning or human activity such as campfires, smoking, arson, or equipment use. T D R AF Figure FC.44, Wildland Urban Interface (WUI) and Reported Wildfire Ignitions, Village of Fairchilds (Texas A&M Forest Service, 2016) 45