Boston Extremes. Lodovica Illari - EAPS mit.edu. 8/30/2011 Hurricane Irene slams East Coast. 8/23/2011 Earthquake shakes Boston area

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1 Boston Extremes 8/23/2011 Earthquake shakes Boston area 8/30/2011 Hurricane Irene slams East Coast 10/30/2011 Bizarre Blizzard hits Boston area Lodovica Illari - EAPS illari@ mit.edu

2 Not Christmas but October 29-30, 2011 Heavy snow in Coopersburg, PA on October 29 brought down trees and blocked roads. Image credit: wunderphotographer boyrr. Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

3 Very confused (stoneygirl) One half of this photo is fall and The other half is winter. Crazy isn't it? Snowbound!! (suzi46) Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

4 Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

5 . Snow depth as of 2 am EDT Sunday October 29, Image credit: NOAA.

6 NWC Record breaking 2.9 of snow fell in Central Park. Record dates back to The storm damaged about half the park's 800 acres. It could cost $500,000 to repair the damage and replant is New York City's 3rd wettest year on record. The city's year-to-date total is 65.75", 24.10" above normal. New York City has a chance to beat its all-time wettest year in history, the 80.56" that fell in 1980.

7 The Snowstorm of October 2011 is a record breaking snow storm. Why so early?? 10/27/2011: GOES East satellite image A peculiar interaction between tropical storm Rina and the mid latitude jet

8 Surface pressure map + surface obs

9 Surface pressure map + IR satellite image

10 1 day later

11 2 days later

12 Main clue: the upper level jet

13 A typical Nor easter: interaction between upper level jet and surface temperature anomalies US - unique location with large amplitude anomalies US Gulf Cold air over land Jet dips down over the Gulf region Advection of warm air northward along the East coast

14 Nor easter: typical vertical structure Forced from ABOVE tropopause 15km Observations W E

15 Many questions: Is this just natural variability? Or is it related to global warming?

16 Historic storm: the Great Snow Hurricane of October 9, 1804 A very similar scenario: a hurricane roared ashore on Long Island and encountered an arctic air mass over southeastern Canada. The winds of the hurricane caused extensive damage from NY to MA the steeple of North Church in Boston was blown down. In Vermont up to three feet of snow. The Catskills of New York reported The Berkshires of Massachusetts received 24-30". Coastal New Haven reported some snow (and 3.66" of rain). Reference: "Early American Winters: ", by David M. Ludlum, American Meteorological Society, 1966, and "Early American Hurricanes, ", by the same author. But the October 2011 storm looks of even greater magnitude than the 1804 storm, although three weeks later in the season.

17 Past Blizzards Blizzard of Feb 06 Blizzard of Feb 10 or Snowpocalypse The Synoptic Laboratory: Case Studies

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19 More snow on the way..

20 The Dome

21 Sidewalk Canyon

22 Parking Lot Mountain

23 Drifting at Building 54

24 Snow pictures The Blizzard of 2006

25 New York Blizzard of 2010

26 New York City

27 Historic Blizzards The Blizzard of 1978 Stranded cars on Route 128

28 Route 128 near Great Blue Hill in Canton

29 NO EXIT: The scene on Route 95 near RI exits 21 and 22 shows the total obstruction of the interstate

30 LONG DISTANCE: There are long distance phone calls, and there are long distance phone calls. This woman reached into a phone booth on Broad Street, Providence, and made it the hard way. Of course, there was a reason for it... the booth was filled with snow. - Bob Emerson Copyright 1998 The Providence Journal Company

31 The End

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33 Blizzard of Feb 06 An example of a Nor easter 1 (1) Phenomenology 2 Structure: horizontal and vertical Development: where do they come from? (2) Forecasting extreme events How reliable are forecasts of tracks and intensity? 3 (3) Current issues what might happen in the future? More winter storms? Any connection to global warming? Gallery of Images

34 1 Horizontal structure surface pressure Blizzard of Feb 06 L 2000km

35 2 Vertical Structure Forced from ABOVE tropopause Blizzard Feb 06 W E

36 Development of a Nor easter tropopause surface temperature Strong mid-latitude cyclones develop through: Trop_loop interaction of tropopause anomalies and surface temperature anomalies

37 A Nor easter: key is Interaction between tropopause and surface temperature anomalies US - unique location with large amplitude anomalies US Gulf Cold air over land Tropoapuse dips down over the Gulf region Advection of warm air northward along the East coast

38 (3) 3 Current issues Frequency of stronger and more destructive Blizzards has increased in recent years??? Is this just natural variability? Blizzards and global warming? Time article: Another Blizzard: What Happened to Global Warming

39 Have forecasts improved? Blizzards - track forecast: sometimes difficult - Intensity forecast: short range good, longer range more difficult Let s compare now with the Blizzard of 78