Thanksgiving Eve snow of November 2014

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1 1. Overview Thanksgiving Eve snow of November 2014 By Richard H. Grumm National Weather Service State College, PA An early season east coast winter storm (ECWS: DeGaetano et al. 2002) brought snow and area of heavy snow to interior regions of the Mid-Atlantic region into New England on November 2014 (Fig. 1 and Fig. 1b). This storm impacted the region on Thanksgiving, the storm impacted both surface and air traffic on one of the busiest days of the year. The heaviest snow was reported in central Appalachians were over 20 inches of snow fell and in the mountains of western Massachusetts where up to 15 inches of snow was reported (Table 2). Snowfall around 12 inches was reported in isolated locations in central New York, Vermont, and Maine. It will be shown that this potential high-impact storm was predicted with about 1.5 to 2 days of additional lead-time using the European Center (EC) deterministic model and ensemble forecast system relative to the NCEP Global Forecast System (GFS) and Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS). The surface cyclone was a classic full-coast storm (Fig. 2) with a surface wave moving across the Gulf States, developing off the southeastern United States and then moving up the East Coast. This is an example of a Miller-A storm (Kocin and Uccellini 2004) which may be somewhat more common in El Nino years (DeGaetano et al. 2002) verse La Nina years. The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) often causally associated with ECWS was positive while the Arctic oscillation (AO: Fig. 3) was slightly negative during this event. A deep trough was present over central North America (Fig. 4) with sharp ridges over the adjacent oceans. The deep trough over North America was likely important in providing cold air for the early season ECWS. This paper will document the pattern associated with the early season ECWS of November Section 3 will focus on the pattern and standardized anomalies to put the event into context. An examination of forecasts is presented addressing the comparative skill and lead-time of the EC and ECF-S relative to the NCEP forecast systems. 2. METHOD AND DATA The large scale pattern was reconstructed using the Climate Forecasts System (CFS) as the first guess at the verifying pattern. The standardized anomalies were computed in Hart and Grumm (2001). All data were displayed using GrADS (Doty and Kinter 1995). The precipitation was estimated using the Stage-IV precipitation data in 6-hour increments to produce estimates of precipitation during the even in 6, 12, 24 and 36 hour periods. Snowfall was retrieved from National Snow Analysis website.

2 The NCEP GFS and GEFS were retrieved and examined in real-time and archived locally. The EC and EC-EFS were retrieved from the EC TIGGE site after the event. These data helped identify the different predictability horizons of the forecast systems. 3. Pattern overview The larger scale 500 hpa pattern (Fig. 4) showed a highly amplified pattern over central North America with a deep 500 hpa trough. The 500 hpa height anomalies were -2s below normal in the trough. The strong 500 hpa ridge and positive height anomalies over the western Atlantic implied strong southerly flow over the southeastern United States and adjacent western Atlantic Ocean. The deep southerly flow between the trough and ridge produced plume of deep moisture, depicted here using the precipitable water (PW: Fig. 5). The PW values in the return flow moisture plume were 40 to 55 mm with anomalies on the order of +3 to +5s above normal. The developing surface cyclone (Fig. 2) was near a plume of deep subtropical moisture which was on the warm side of the 850 hpa baroclinic zone (Fig. 6). The 850 hpa temperatures were below zero C inland but were above 0C in most of the coastal plane. As the wave evolved, along with the plume of high PW air, the wave pulled warm air northward with +2s above normal 850 hpa temperature anomalies present in the strong baroclinic zone along the New England Coast (Fig. 6). In addition to the plume of high PW air and the strong 850 hpa baroclinic zone, this storm had strong easterly winds north and west of the surface cyclone (Fig. 7). The strong and tight easterly jet was relatively well aligned with the region regions of higher precipitation and snowfall (Figs. 8 & 1). The event total QPE shows some isolated amounts of over 32 mm of QPE in the mountains of western Massachusetts where some of the higher snowfall amounts were observed. Most of the coastal plain was too warm for snow and received rainfall. These QPE data show that this storm had a very sharp western edge and a south-southwest to north-northeast axis of higher QPE values. Patterns such as this are often observed in cyclones with more northnortheasterly winds. The more easterly events often push the QPF shield farther inland and have an axis rotated closer to east-west. 4. Forecasts The EC deterministic models pressure forecasts valid at 26/1200 and 27/0000 UTC (Figs. 9 & 10). All of these EC runs, with the longest forecast initialized 6 days prior to the event, showed a surface cyclone along the East Coast and a potential ECWS. The EC forecasts after 0000 UTC 21 November began to shift the cyclone closer to the coast. The NCEP GFS (Figs. 12 & 13) forecasts were slower to show the deeper cyclone evolution along the coastal plain. There was about a 1.5 day difference in the ability of the NCEP forecasts

3 to show the deeper cyclone closer to the coast. Not as dramatic as the October 2012 Sandy EC left turn but clearly, a lag in the GFS in capturing the potential storm on November relative to the EC forecast system. The impact of the cyclone intensity and track were significant with regards to the QPF shield and all sensible weather elements associated with winter storms. EC QPFs (Fig. 13) had the precipitation shield affected the Mid-Atlantic and at least coastal northeastern United States regions 2 to 3 days earlier than the GFS QPFs did (Fig. 14). The older GFS forecast, from 0000 UTC 21 November kept the QPF offshore and did not bring it into the entire coastal regime until the 0000 UTC 23 November 2014 forecast cycle. The EC-EFS data showed a cyclone in the mean with high spread (not shown) from forecasts issued at 0000 UTC 21 November 2014 (Fig. 15b). A similar signal appeared in the GEFS at 0000 UTC 23 November 2014 (Fig. 16d). The forecasts centered on the time the EC EFS began to show a cyclone in the mean was used to produce a comparative forecast set in 12 hour increments. The EC EFS showed a closed low with high confidence (using 1s standardized anomalies) from forecasts issued at 1200 UTC 22 November (Fig. 17d). The GEFS converged toward a stronger cyclone 1.5 days later at 1200 UTC 23 November 2014 (Fig. 18f). The EC EFS and NCEP GEFS probability of 12.5 mm or more QPF for the 24 hour period ending at 1200 UTC 27 November 2014 (Figs 19 & 20) show the wetter and farther west QPF shield in the EC EFS relative to then NCEP GEFS. 5. Conclusions An early season winter storm affected the eastern United States on November The inland snows fell on Thanksgiving Eve, one of the busiest travel days of the year. Fortunately, most of the precipitation fell as rain on the heavy travelled corridor from Washington DC to New York City. The heavier accumulating snow fell mainly to the west of this region. The storm had all the characteristics associated with ECWS including a deep surface cyclone and a strong easterly jet north of the cyclone center and north and west of the track of the surface cyclone center. Of significance in this event was the clear 1 to 1.5 days of additional lead-time provided by the EC deterministic model and the EC ensemble forecast system relative to the comparative NCEP forecast systems. It would interesting to know what provides the EC systems this additional 1.5 day of predictability relative to the NCEP systems. 6. References

4 Doty, B.E. and J.L. Kinter III, 1995: Geophysical Data Analysis and Visualization using GrADS. Visualization Techniques in Space and Atmospheric Sciences, eds. E.P. Szuszczewicz and J.H. Bredekamp, NASA, Washington, D.C., DeGaetano, A. T., M. E. Hirsch, and S. J. Colucci Statistical prediction of seasonal East Coast winter storm frequency. Journal of Climate 15: Kalnay, Eugenia, Stephen J. Lord, Ronald D. McPherson, 1998: Maturity of Operational Numerical Weather Prediction: Medium Range. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 79,

5 Figure 1.National Snow Analysis site image of the snow fall (inches and mm) over the northeastern United States for the 24 hour period ending 0600 UTC 27 November Text based image 1b linked here. Return to text.

6 Figure 2. CFS analysis of the surface pressure pattern and surface pressure anomalies over eastern North America in 6-hour increments from a) 0000 UTC 26 November through f) 0600 UTC 27 November Return to text.

7 Figure 3. Plots of the North Atlantic and Arctic oscillations and forecasts from the NCEP models of these indices. Data from the Climate Prediction teleconnection website. Return to text.

8 Figure 4. CFS 500 hpa height (m) and height anomalies in 12 hour increments from a) 0000 UTC 25 November through f) 1200 UTC 1200 UTC 27 November Return to text.

9 Figure 5. CFS precipitable water (PW) and PW anomalies in 6-hour increments from a) 0000 UTC 26 November 2014 through f) 0600 UTC 27 November Return to text.

10 Figure 6. As in Figure 5 except for CFS 850 hpa temperatures (C) and 850 hpa temperature anomalies. Return to text.

11 Figure 7. As in Figure 5 except for CFS 850 hpa winds (ms-1) and 850 hpa u-wind anomalies. Return to text.

12 Figure 8. Stage-IV storm total estimated liquid equivalent precipitation (mm). Return to text.

13 Figure 9. EC surface pressure forecasts and pressure anomaly forecasts valid at 1200 UTC 26 November 2014 from EC forecasts initialized at a) 1200 UTC 25 November, b) 0000 UTC 25 November, c) 0000 UTC 24 November, d) 0000 UTC 23 November, e) UTC 22 November, and f) 0000 UTC 21 November Return to text.

14 Figure 10. As in Figure 9 except EC surface forecasts valid at 0000 UTC 27 November Return to text.

15 Figure 11. As in Figure 9 except for NCEP GFS model forecasts valid at 1200 UTC 26 November Return to text.

16 Figure 12. As in Figure 9 except for NCEP GFS model forecasts valid at 0000 UTC 27 November Return to text.

17 Figure 13. As in Figure 9 except EC 24 hour QPF for the period ending 1200 UTC 27 November Return to text.

18 Figure 14. As in Figure 13 except for NCEP GFS. Return to text.

19 Figure 15. As in Figure 10 except EC EFS showing 52 member ensemble mean of pressure and pressure anomalies valid at 0000 UTC 27 November 2014 from EC EFS forecasts initialized at a) 0000 UTC 20 November, b) 0000 UTC 21 November, c) UTC 22 November, d) 0000 UTC 23 November, e) 0000 UTC 24 November and f) 0000 UTC 25 November Return to text.

20 Figure 16. As in Figure 15 except for the NCEP 21-member GEFS. Return to text.

21 Figure 17. As in Figure 16 but showing successive 12-hour forecasts around the time the EC EFS began to predict the ECWS from a) 0000 UTC 21 November through f) 1200 UTC 23 November Return to text.

22 Figure 18. As in Figure 17 except for NCEP GEFS forecasts. Return to text.

23 Figure 19. As in Figure 17 except for EC EFS QPF forecasts for 50 members showing the mean 12.5 mm contour and the probability of 12.5 mm or more QPF in the 24 hours ending at 1200 UTC 27 November Return to text.

24 Figure 20. As in Figure 19 Except for NCEP GEFS. Return to text.

25 Figure1b. Snowfall plotted as text all values 1 to 9 inches are black and above 10 inches are red. A map of all values over 8 inches is in Fig 1c.. Return to text.

26

27 Location Latitude Longitude Elevation Report Time (UTC) Amount (in inches) 3 SE PAW PAW PUBLIC, WV feet 11/26/ : NE PETERSBURG PUBLIC, WV feet 11/26/ : SE PAW PAW PUBLIC, WV feet 11/26/ : SE PAW PAW BROADCAST MEDIA, WV feet 11/26/ :00 18 BAKER, WV feet 11/26/ :30 18 ROMNEY, WV feet 11/26/ :00 18 WARRENSBURG, NY feet 11/27/2014 5: SIDELING HILL REST SOCIAL MEDIA, PA feet 11/26/ : N FRENCHBURG PUBLIC, WV feet 11/26/ : WSW MONTEREY, VA feet 11/26/ :00 14 ORWELL, VT feet 11/27/2014 3: PLAINFIELD, MA feet 11/27/2014 3: WSW DEER RUN TRAINED SPOTTER, WV feet 11/26/ :51 13 FONDA, NY feet 11/27/2014 4:36 13 PORTER CORNERS WEATHERNET6, NY feet 11/27/2014 2: PERU, MA feet 11/27/2014 1: WORTHINGTON GENERAL PUBLIC, MA feet 11/27/2014 3: PLATTE CLOVE, NY feet 11/27/2014 5: MONTAGUE TRAINED SPOTTER, NJ feet 11/27/2014 4: CONKLIN, NY feet 11/26/ : W SMITH CROSSROADS, WV feet 11/26/ : BERKELEY SPGS, WV feet 11/26/ :00 12 FAIRFIELD, NY feet 11/27/2014 2:00 12 AUGUSTA, NH feet 11/26/ :44 12 SPECULATOR, NY feet 11/27/2014 4:00 12 MIDDLEBURY PUBLIC, VT feet 11/27/2014 3:04 12 PINE PLAINS, NY feet 11/26/ :30 12 BRIDGTON, ME feet 11/27/2014 4:15 12 PAW PAW MESONET, WV feet 11/26/ :21 12 BARRE, VT feet 11/27/2014 5:00 12 LEYDEN, MA feet 11/27/2014 5:35 12 Table 1

28 Figure 21. All snowfall reports of 8 inches or greater with values over 10 inches in red. Return to text.

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