Public Lightning Alerting in Canada A Risk-Based Approach -
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1 Public Lightning Alerting in Canada A Risk-Based Approach - Dennis Dudley Manager, Canadian Lightning Detection Network Environment Canada, MSC CHRNet Annual Symposium Vancouver, BC October 23-26, 2012 Photo credit: Dennis Dudley
2 Key Messages Lightning is a hazard in Canada Environment Canada is developing a web-based map to alert Canadians. Map shows areas of immediate lightning danger. Influence protective action Operational in summer 2013 Weatheroffice.gc.ca Mobile alerting in the future Photo credit. Hobson
3 Lightning Climatology North America
4 A bit of context. Photo credit: Dennis Dudley Photo credit: Matt Van Emmerick
5 Where we are now... Lightning density 40 KM boxes Past 60 minutes min delay Effective? Top 10 page
6 Or... Today...Partly cloudy. 40% chance of shower or thundershower. High 21. Monday...Mix of sun and cloud. Risk of a thundershower. Tuesday...Sunny. Wednesday...Mix of sun and cloud.
7 Our Business... To influence decision making Outcomes: 1. To reduce personal harm 2. To improve economy How? by changing behaviour People must believe the threat is real before behaviour change people need to be informed by multiple sources that are credible» Jennifer Spinney, 2012
8 ...In the context of lightning in Canada Lightning is a hazard. Vulnerable populations... outdoor sports outdoor events / venues outdoor workers How can we use national lightning detection network to reduce harm? Photo credit: Andrew Hillson
9 Canadian Lightning Danger Map Developing a map that identifies circles of lightning danger. Plot these danger circles on a map that Canadians can access from their mobile. Lightning danger circles updated every 10 minutes What would it look like?
10 Lightning Incidences - Case Studies Case 1 Fredericton, New Brunswick, 2003 Case 2 Whitby, ON (Ribfest), 2012 Case 3 SWRN Ontario, 2012 Case 4 Brampton, ON, 2009
11 CASE #1 Fredericton, NB July 20, 2003 U15 soccer tournament at local middle school Final game - gold medal game 14 year old girl killed by lightning 23 sent to hospital, including linesman unconscious. Fatal strike at 1755 UTC (1455 ADT)
12 1550 Lightning danger circle Immediately seek safe shelter Car, enclosed building Location of lightning incident
13 1600
14 1610
15 1620
16 1630
17 1640
18 1650
19 1700
20 1710
21 1720
22 1730
23 1740
24 1750
25 1800 lightning fatality at 1755
26 Case #2 Whitby, Ontario July 15, 2012 Mass gathering event - Rib Fest food festival 17 injured 1800 UTC
27 1700
28 1710
29 1720
30 1730
31 1740
32 1750
33 injured
34 CASE #3 Southwestern Ontario August 15, 2012 Migrant Worker Fatal strike 2015 UTC
35 1840
36 1850
37 1900
38 1910
39 1920
40 1930
41 1940
42 1950
43 2000
44 2010
45 2020 lightning fatality
46 CASE #4 Brampton, Ontario Child killed by lightning seeking shelter under a tree near a baseball field. Occurred at 1820 UTC
47 1720
48 1730
49 1740
50 1750
51 1800
52 1810
53 1820 fatal strike
54 Summary of cases Fatal strikes can arrive with little lead time. Lightning danger map from Environment Canada offers a credible source to corroborate other senses. official directive may influence protective action.
55 Keys to success Collaborate with audiences at risk Sports organizations Venue managers Collaborate with social / behavioural science to create an altering service that will achieve protective action. Improve lightning risk perception and literacy in Canada Build towards mobile access
56 Contact Info
57 Acknowledgements - Gabor Fricska, Service Liaison Meteorologist, Kelowna - Jacques Descureiux, Social Scientist, Kelowna - Ron Holle, Viasala Inc. - And many others. Photo credit. Gabor Fricska
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