O2.3 Cold-season thunderstorms and aviation
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1 O2.3 Cold-season thunderstorms and aviation NMM June2018 Robert Mäkitie Finnish Meteorological Institute Aviation and Military Weather Service
2 Overview of my masters thesis Research question: Is it possible to improve the information of cold-season thunderstorms from weather models and observations near Helsinki-Vantaa airport? 3 cases close to Helsinki-Vantaa airport Compared to other research studies: Koninklijk Nederlands Meteorologisch Instituut, Netherlands Met Office, UK Meteorologiska Intitutt, Norway Finnish Meteorological Institute, Finland USA
3 Convection theory If one of the three main conditions dosen t appear, convection won t occur. Conditions that are needed for development of convection and thunderstorms
4 Cold-season Warm-season Difference between warmand cold-season thunder The theory of thunder and deep convection is based on warm-seasons. One way to predict thunderstorms during warm-seasons is by using CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) and the equilibrium level. In Finland the CAPE threshold value for thunder is about 100 J/kg. The equilibrium level should be colder than -20 C. Cold-season thunderstorms occur in Finland a couple of time a season. Studies have shown about cold-season thunderstorms: The CAPE value is really low during cold-season thunderstorms. In some cases the equilibrium level is warmer than -20 C
5 Cases Dates: 3rd of January 2017 Lake-effect 23rd of April 2016 Surface trough 1st of May 2014 Lake-effect 14 lightning strikes totally, where of 5 airplanes got hit Radar image (PPI) over southern Finland 3rd of January :25 UTC, from where you can clearly see a lake-effect occuring over the southern Finland. Retrieved from radar.fmi.fi. Hit rate 36 %
6 Cases Equilibrium level from the AMDAR-soundings: -22 C ( feet) -40 C ( feet) -16 C ( feet) Respective CAPE values from the sounding in Jokioinen: 0.70 J/kg 5.53 J/kg 1.38 J/kg AMDAR-sounding from an ascending airplane at EFHK, 07:00 UTC on 1st of May Retrieved from amdar.noaa.gov
7 Cases Hydroclass radar image from over Helsinki region, 23rd of April :45 UTC. Also a cross-section radar image from Vantaa radar in direction 238. The yellow color indicates graupel. Retrieved from radar.fmi.fi
8 Other research studies Netherlands, KNMI Algorithm requirment: 1. The temperature is colder than - 10 C at the 700 hpa height 2. Freezing level below 3000 feets height 3. A cold advection from the north United Kingdom, Met Office Algorithm requirment: 1. The average temperature between 2000 and 3000 feets height is between -6 C and -1 C. 2. Freezing level between 2000 and 3000 feets height 3. Precipitation over 4 mm/h. Norway, MET T 750m,ind = 1 when -6 C <T < -1 C W 750m,ind = max value in the neighbourhood area [min(1, W/0.75)] Precip ind = max value in the neighbourhood area [min(1,precp/0.75)] LowClouds ind = maximum cloud cover minus minimum cloud cover in the neighbourhood area
9 Own thoughts 1. Answer to my research question: YES, it s possible. 2. By using hydroclass radar, it gives a chance to tell if there s any risk for cold-season thunder. 3. KNMI s algorithm more of a guideline to creating an own algorithm. 4. Weak and low CB clouds - related with airplanes? 5. Is wind-shear a significant factor during the cold-season? 6. By improving the AMDAR-program, it would give better observation for cold-season thunderstorms
10 Thank you! Bright, D.R., M.S. Wandishin, R.E. Jewell & S.J Weiss, 2005: A physically based parameter for lightning prediction and its calibration in ensemble forecast. Conf. on Meteor. Appl. of Lightning Data, Amer. Meteor. Soc. Vol Hemink, J., W.R. Gough & T.H. Fahey, 2007: Prediction and occurrence of aircraft lightning encounters around Amsterdam Airport Schiphol. KNMI Research Triennial Scientific Rep,2009, Køltzow, M.Ø., 2016: Lynvarsling, NyttNasjonlatVarslingssystem, MulgheterogBergrensninger. Solakonferansen, SUV, Meteorological institute of Norway. Mäkelä, A., E. Saltikoff, J. Julkunen, I. Juga, E. Gregow& S. Niemelä, 2013: Cold-season thunderstorms in Finland and their effect on aviation safety. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 94.6, Punkka, A-J., 2009: Vaarallisenkonvektiontuntomerkit, Sääpäivät. FinnishMeteorologicalInstitute. Schultz, D.M. & R.J. Vavrek, 2009: An overview of thundersnow. Weather,64.10, Wilkinson, J.M., H. Wells, P.R. Field & P. Agnew, 2013: Investigation and prediction of helicopter triggered lightning over the North Sea. Meteorological Applications,20.1, More references can be found in my master thesis
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