PLURISK project 'Forecasting and management of extreme rainfall induced risks in the urban environment'

Transcription

1 PLURISK project 'Forecasting and management of extreme rainfall induced risks in the urban environment' programme 'Science for a Sustainable Development' 1 st Follow-up Committee Meeting Brussels, 12 October 2012

2 PLURISK Title: «Forecasting and management of extreme rainfall induced risks in the urban environment» Period: 1 May Funded by BelSPO SSD «Science for a Sustainable Development» programme

3 Focus PLURISK Extreme rainfall induced RISKs in the urban environment: Urban inundations (Belgian cities) Local scale -> PLUvial flooding

4 14-17 november 2010: 50 mm / days 80 mm / 5 days

5 23 August 2011: 36 mm / 30 min PLURISK, 1FCM 12 October 2012

6 Rainfall statistics, Uccle, from 1898 Rainfall intensity [mm/h] Short very intense summer thunderstorms (minutes hours) Longlasting rainfall events (hours days) High 20 long term jaar 5 jaar rainfall volume 2 jaar = high soil saturation levels (days weeks) Rain storm duration [days]

7 Focus PLURISK Extreme rainfall induced RISKs in the urban environment: Urban inundations (Belgian cities) Local scale -> PLUvial flooding Fine-scale (local, short duration) rainfall estimation and nowcasting (= short term forecasting in real time) River flooding (fluvial flooding) Involvement of local authorities (have low capacity in setting up risk quantification, forecasting, control and management systems) River authorities

8 Focus PLURISK Development of methodologies and software for: Nowcasting of fine-scale extreme rainfall 2D fine-scale modelling, mapping and nowcasting of inundations in urban areas Socio-economic risk quantification of urban inundations Risk communication and flood risk warning based on nowcasting results Risk reduction by new sustainable management strategies (e.g. better interfacing urban water management, spatial planning and ecomanagement)

9 Focus PLURISK Extreme rainfall induced RISKs in the urban environment: PLUralistic nature of risk quantification and management strategies: Meteorological aspects Hydraulic Economical Ecological Social Warning Perception Coping capacity Etc. bringing together disciplines and views

10 PLURISK partners KU Leuven, Hydraulics division (prof. P.Willems, general coordinator; researchers: Laurens Cas Decloedt, Charlotte Buyse) Royal Meteorological Institute of Belgium, Observations Department, Radar and Lightning Detection group (dr. Laurent Delobbe, dr. Maarten Reyniers, dr. Dieter Poelman) ULg Gembloux Agro-Bio Tech, Unité Biodiversité et Paysage (prof. Gregory Mahy, prof. Jan Bogaert; researcher: Justine Marechal) KU Leuven, Research Institute for Work and Society (HIVA) (Kris Bachus, Lieven De Smet) KU Leuven, R. Lemaire International Center for Conservation / Unesco Chair on Preventive Conservation, monitoring and maintenance of monuments and sites (prof. K.Van Balen; researchers: Ona Vileikis, Aziliz Vandesande) with support of Follow-up Committee members

11 Agenda 13:30 Introduction by Christine Mathieu (BelSPO) 13:45 Overview of the PLURISK project (PLURISK coordinator) 14:00 Presentation and discussion on PLURISK objectives and methodologies (PLURISK WP leaders) 15:30 Presentation/discussion on case-studies: Leuven case / Interreg RainGain project (Johan Van Assel, Aquafin) Liège case (Roland De Schryver, Jean-Pierre Silan, Laurent Malherbe, AIDE) Gent case (Ilse Pauwelyn, TMVW) 16:30 17:00 Closure

12 Structure PLURISK WP1 WP2 Nowcasting of fine-scale extreme rainfall y Small meso-scale areas x Large meso- θ scale areas Rain cells R(x,y) y x u RMI & KU Leuven - Hydr 2D fine scale modelling, mapping and nowcasting of urban inundations KU Leuven Hydr WP3 WP4 Socio-economic risk quantification of urban inundations (incl. cultural heritage) KU Leuven HIVA & Lemaire Risk communication and warning HIVA & RMI WP5 Risk reduction by new sustainable management strategies (better interfacing urban water management, spatial planning and eco-management) Gembloux Agro-Bio Tech

13 Structure PLURISK WP1 WP2 Nowcasting of fine-scale extreme rainfall y Small meso-scale areas x Large meso- θ scale areas Rain cells R(x,y) y x u Nation-wide rainfall nowcasting system 2D fine scale modelling, mapping and nowcasting of urban inundations WP3 WP4 WP5 Socio-economic risk quantification of urban inundations (incl. cultural heritage) demonstrated and tested for 3 Belgian cities; Risk communication and warning applicable to any Belgian urban area Risk reduction by new sustainable management strategies (better interfacing urban water management, spatial planning and eco-management)

14 Pluvial flooding Required data resolution: << 1 km in space; around 5 min in time

15 Rain gauge network 12 : rain gauges Antwerpen km

16 National C-band radar network Jabbeke

17 High resolution X-band radar technology Aquafin & KU Leuven X band radar installed since 2008 City LAWR (DHI) Brussels Leuven 10 km

18 High resolution X-band radar technology 1 km: 50 m:

19 RainGain hoge resolutie neerslag en wateroverlastinformatie in steden Xband/Verbeterde Cband radars in 4 Pilots: Rotterdam (NL) Leuven (B) Paris (F) London (UK)

20 Rain cells R(x,y) y u Work Packages y Small meso-scale areas x Large meso- θ scale areas x WP1: Nowcasting of fine-scale extreme rainfall using advanced techniques for storm cell tracking Integrating: national (C-band) radar technology local (X-band) radar technology numerical weather prediction lightning detection quantification of the uncertainty in the nowcasting

21 Work Packages WP2: Two-dimensional fine-scale modelling, mapping and nowcasting of inundations in urban areas making use of fine-scale rainfall estimation and nowcasting results (WP1) by hydraulic sewer modelling 2D surface inundation modelling and mapping quantification of uncertainties on the inundation quantifications

22 Work Packages WP3: Socio-economic risk quantification incl. material and immaterial (social, ecological) damage assessment quantification of risk perception (awareness) coping capacity and recovery capacity impacts on built heritage uncertainty estimation on the impacts

23 Work Packages WP4: Risk communication and flood risk warning based on the nowcasting results extreme rainfall warnings

24 Work Packages WP5: Risk reduction by new sustainable management strategies better interfacing between spatial planning, eco-management and urban water management green blue water role of landscape architecture restoration of biodiversity in urban areas incl. ecotechnologies on buildings and very dense urbanized areas considering the services of biodiversity for human population

25 WP1: Nowcasting of fine-scale Rain cells Small meso-scale areas R(x,y) y u extreme rainfall y x θ Large mesoscale areas x Task 1.1: Calibration and evaluation of the performance of local high resolution X-band radar (for the Leuven case), and full scale acquisition of X-band radar data and merging of the X-band radar data with rain gauge data (Leuven case) Task 1.2: Integration of C-band (all cases) and X-band (Leuven case) radar observations with rain gauge data to generate hybrid spatial rainfall composites with high resolution, and evaluation of these composites for the study regions Task 1.3: Implementation and testing of real-time fine-scale rainfall forecasting Task 1.4: Downscaling Task 1.5: Uncertainty estimation Task 1.6: Organization of an international workshop

26 WP2: 2D fine scale modelling, mapping and nowcasting of urban inundations Task 2.1: Simulation of the historical X-band and C-band based fine-scale spatial rainfall estimates and forecasts (results from WP1) in the sewer network models of the study cases Task 2.2: Extension of the current models with a 2D surface flood calculation module Task 2.3: Evaluation of the 2D surface flood simulation results Task 2.4: Analysis of the added value of the fine-scale rainfall data for accurate (extreme) rainfall estimation and urban flood simulation, prediction and warning Task 2.5: Development of a real-time urban flood forecasting system Task 2.6: Organization of an international workshop on realtime urban flood forecasting

27 WP2: 2D fine scale modelling, mapping and nowcasting of urban inundations Dual Drainage Concept overland network + sewer network Bi directional interaction Effective rainfall Surface component Sub surface component Sewer flow

28 WP2: 2D fine scale modelling, mapping and nowcasting of urban inundations 1D overland flow modelling Nodes (ponds) and links (flow paths) 2D overland flow modelling Surface divided into small elements (squares or irregular triangles)

29 WP2: 2D fine scale modelling, mapping and nowcasting of urban inundations 1D / 2D To combine their advantages and overcome their disadvantages 1D / 1D Hybrid 1D/1D + 1D/2D simulation

30 WP2: 2D fine scale modelling, mapping and nowcasting of urban inundations Need from case studies: Availability of sewer system model High resolution DEM Recent rain gauge data (Additional rain gauges, X-band radar) Data on historical inundations (area, streets, approx. inundation depths, ) Expertise by local urban water managers; follow-up of PLURISK results; feedback Other WP: info on current urban flood management approach, usefulness of warnings, how uncertainty can be best handled in practice,

31 WP3: Socio-economic risk quantification Task 3.1: Development and execution of a questionnaire targeting Belgian households that have already been affected by urban flooding or lightning strikes Task 3.2: Definition and (e)valuation of specific flood/lightning social impacts Task 3.3: Assessment of the (tangible and intangible) flood/lightning risk reducing effects of risk awareness, warnings and private precautionary measures Task 3.4: Evaluation and calibration of existing flood depth damage functions Task 3.5: A methodology for assessing damage to historic buildings and sites will be developed and applied to the study areas

32 WP3: Socio-economic risk quantification (contin ) Task 3.6: Extension of the flood nowcasting system developed in WP2 to a flood risk nowcasting system, such that the forecasting and mapping of hydraulic variables (WP2) will be transferred to socio-economical risk variables Task 3.7: International workshop on real-time socio-economic risk assessment for the urban environment Task 3.8: Flood risk assessment for the selected case study areas using improved flood risk assessment methodology

33 WP4: Risk communication and flood risk warning Task 4.1: Mapping and evaluation of the state-of-the-art knowledge/practices/systems with respect to delivering flood risk and lightning stroke warnings to both the general public and managers of vulnerable infrastructures/activities Task 4.2: Design of a real-time flood risk and lightning stroke warning system s communication strategy based on rules and procedures for the urban environment

34 WP5: Risk reduction by new sustainable management strategies Task 5.1: Detailed literature review to identify the original green structures that have been reported to play a role in flooding control for the urban environment. Task 5.2: The evolution of the capacity of the studied landscapes to provide ESs linked to water flow control in the urban environment will be assessed. Task 5.3: Evaluation of the contribution of existing green infrastructure to management of current and future flooding events by assessing the efficiency of their spatial localization in regard to flooding models developed in WP2 Task 5.4: Development of a real-time control strategy

35 3 Belgian cities Leuven (linked to RainGain project, Aquafin, city of Leuven) Gent (TMVW) Liège (AIDE) Antwerp?

36 Final items Initial report List of Follow-up Committee members Website: