Risk Management. from Volcanoes to Finances. Prof. Joan Martí Institute of Earth Sciences Jaume Almera, CSIC, Barcelona
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1 Risk Management from Volcanoes to Finances Prof. Joan Martí Institute of Earth Sciences Jaume Almera, CSIC, Barcelona April 7, 2014
2 Why to compare volcanoes and finances? Both are systems (volcanoes, natural; finances, human made) which structure, behaviour, and interconnectivity can be constrained by mathematical equations that define, respectively, the physical and economic (and political?) laws that govern them. The future behaviour of both systems can be forecasted based on past activity and current indicators. The forecast of future activity is subject to varying degrees of uncertainty depending on the information available (past and present) While volcanoes are natural systems governed by the Physics' laws that cannot be manipulated, finances are human made systems that are highly vulnerable and sensitive to human manipulation. In both cases, forecast future activity is essential to protect society Global Association of Risk Professionals. All rights reserved.
3 How volcanoes work? seismometer GPS gravimeter Earth surface Host rock (rock mechanics) Earth is a gravitational system Global Association of Risk Professionals. All rights reserved. gas monitoring Magma: molten rock and fluids (thermodynamics and fluid dynamics)
4 How volcanoes work? EARTHQUAKES FLOODS LANDSLIDES VOLCANOES STORMS Global Association of Risk Professionals. All rights reserved. TSUNAMIS
5 How volcanologists work? volcano PHYSICAL VOLCANOLOGY Field studies of products and Structures. Analysis of products Experimental and matemathical modelling of volcanic processes VOLCANO MONITORING Ground and remote geophysical and geochemical monitoring of active volcanoes ERUPTION FORECAST (HOW, WHEN, WHERE) Global Association of Risk Professionals. All rights reserved.
6 How volcanologists work? Eruption (erupted products) Long-term risk assessment Unrest (geophysical + Geochemical monitoring) Short-term risk assessment Global Association of Risk Professionals. All rights reserved.
7 How volcanologists work? EPISTEMIC UNCERTAINTY (DATA) DATA ALEATORIC UNCERTAINTY (PROCESS) Global Association of Risk Professionals. All rights reserved. INTERPRETATION
8 How volcanologists work? EXPERT 1 (INTERPRETATION 1) EXPERT 2 (INTERPRETATION 2) DATA CONSENSUS ROOM EXPERT 4 (INTERPRETATION 4) EXPERT 3 (INTERPRETATION 3) CONSENSUS ASSESSMENT FOR CIVIL PROTECTION Global Association of Risk Professionals. All rights reserved.
9 PRECURSOR OUTCOME CONDITIONAL OUTCOME LOCATION EXPLORIS FINALPRIMARY MEETING: TEIDE REFERENCE ERUPTION SCENARIOS AND EVENT TREE EVENT TREE: Risk management from volcanoes to finances probabilities assigned by NO ERUPTION Expert Elicitation Judgement or Bayesian inference Central vents How volcanologists work? UNREST (Including external triggers) ERUPTION Flanks SECTOR FAILURE (debris avalanche) No eruption Phreatic blast only Triggered eruption Global Association of Risk Professionals. All rights reserved ERUPTIVE STYLE SubPlinian or larger Phreatomagmatic Violent Strombolian Strombolian Mainly effusive Phreatic C CSIC S IC SubPlinian or larger Phreatomagmatic Violent Strombolian Strombolian Mainly effusive Phreatic SubPlinian or larger Phreatomagmatic Violent Strombolian Strombolian Mainly effusive Phreatic Naples, May 2006
10 How volcanologists work? Global Association of Risk Professionals. All rights reserved.
11 How volcanologists work? Global Association of Risk Professionals. All rights reserved.
12 How volcanologists work? Global Association of Risk Professionals. All rights reserved.
13 How volcanologists communicate? Global Association of Risk Professionals. All rights reserved.
14 Global Association of Risk Professionals. All rights reserved.
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