Rapid evolution of a proglacial coastal lake
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1 Rapid evolution of a proglacial coastal lake 20 th and 21 th century changes in Jökulsárlón at Breiðamerkursandur, Vatnajökull, Iceland 1 Sverrir Guðmundsson 1 Helgi Björnsson 1 Finnur Pálsson 2 Etienne Berthier 1 Earth Science Institute, University of Iceland 2 LEGOS, Toulouse, France
2 Overview Site description: Breiðamerkurjökull glacier/ Jökulsárlón lake - Surface and bedrock topography Formation and evolution of Jökulsárlón - 20 th century glacier retreat - Ice fluxes, calving rates - Energy balance of the lake Modelling iceflow and lake evolution - Observations - Iceflow, calving and mass balance model - Predicted future changes - Comparison to coupled iceflow- and mass balance model of southern Vatnajökull (Aðalgeirsdóttir and others)
3 Landsat 1 MSS image, USGS Vatnajökull icecap Jökulsárlón lake Breiðamerkurjökull outlet glacier
4 Breiðamerkurjökull Surface topography Glacier area 994 km 2 Jökulsárlón Lake area 17.4 km 2
5 Breiðamerkurjökull Sub-ice topography mapped by radio echo sounding 1991 Not measured 25 km long trench below sea level Jökulsárlón
6 Overview Site description: Breiðamerkurjökull glacier/ Jökulsárlón lake - Surface and bedrock topography Formation and evolution of Jökulsárlón - 20 th century glacier retreat - Ice fluxes, calving rates - Energy balance of the lake Modelling iceflow and lake evolution - Observations - Iceflow, calving and mass balance model - Predicted future changes - Comparison to coupled iceflow- and mass balance model of southern Vatnajökull (Aðalgeirsdóttir and others)
7 Formation of Jökulsárlón since 1933 Glacier retreat Ice Bedrock
8 Ice reduction in Jökulsárlón since 1933 Calving ice flux estimated from : I i : ice flux towards lagoon through a cross section above lagoon (from cross section area and flow velocity) I b : surface mass balance on snout between cross section and lagoon I h : net ice volume change (thinning) between lagoon and cross section I l : net ice volume change between lagoon and cross section due to change in margin position
9 Energy supplied to ice melting in Jökulsárlón since 1933
10 From Landmælingar Íslands
11 - Breiðamerkurjökull and Breiðamerkurlón. - SPOT5, August Pixel resolution 2.5 x 2.5 m
12 - Breiðamerkurjökull and Breiðamerkurlón. - SPOT5, August Pixel resolution 2.5 x 2.5 m
13 Esjufjöll Breiðamerkurjökull Photo: Helgi Björnsson 1990
14 Breiðamerkurjökull Photo: Helgi Björnsson 1990
15 Overview Site description: Breiðamerkurjökull glacier/ Jökulsárlón lake - Surface and bedrock topography Formation and evolution of Jökulsárlón - 20 th century glacier retreat - Ice fluxes, calving rates - Energy balance of the lake Modelling iceflow and lake evolution - Observations - Iceflow, calving and mass balance model - Predicted future changes - Comparison to coupled iceflow- and mass balance model of southern Vatnajökull (Aðalgeirsdóttir and others)
16 Observed mass balance and thinning rate
17 Sonic echo sounder at 200 m a.s.l. May 5, 2002 ~ 40 cm
18 Sonic echo sounder at 200 m a.s.l. July 23, 2002 Steini
19 Sonic echo sounder at 200 m a.s.l.
20 Observed glacier surface velocity Observations: -DGPS -SPOT5 correlation DGPS
21 Observed glacier surface velocity Observations: -DGPS -SPOT5 correlation SPOT5 correlation: Input: 2 optical images (2.5 X 2.5 m) Output: 2D horizontal displacement SPOT5, August 11, 2004 SPOT5, Sept. 26, 2004 Correlation and mass balance correction V C V L Horizontal displacement V H
22 Observed glacier surface velocity Observations: -DGPS -SPOT5 correlation Horizontal velocity inferred from two SPOT5: August 11 and September 26, 2004 At the calving front Esjufjöll Jökulsárlón SPOT5 velocity: LEGOS and CNES, Toulouse, France
23 Coupled iceflow-calving models Mass balance model tuned to observations since 1996 Calving model Iceflow model Ice Bedrock
24 Predicted response to present-day climate Average climate condition since 1996 Ice Bedrock Ice Bedrock
25 Southern Vatnajökull: coupled iceflow-mass balance models Predicted response to the average climate conditions of zero annual mass balance Guðfinna Aðalgeirsdóttir and others, in press (JGR)
26
27 Reasponse to climate scenario Based on CWE climate change scenario near Iceland, Temperature changes approximated by: sinusoidal annual variation. continious linear warming: maximum of +0,3 C per decade (winter) and a minimum of 0,15 C per decade (summer). Precipitation changes: monthly fluctuations appear without a clear climate change signal. simplified to 5% per 1 C warming, independent of the season.
28 Southern Vatnajökull: coupled iceflow-mass balance models Predicted response to the CWE climate scenario By Guðfinna Aðalgeirsdóttir and others, in press (JGR)
29
30 Conclusions Site description - Jökulsárlón is the southernmost part of a 25 km long trench Formation and evolution of Jökulsárlón - 20th century glacier retreat: 5.6 km - Lake appeared in 1933, and was at the year 2004: 17.4 km 2 - Present calving flux: 0.25 km 3 a -1 - Velocity at calving front: 500 m a -1 - Thinning rate at calving front: 8 m a -1 (ablation 13 m ice a -1 ) - Present energy supply for melting lake ice: ~3000 MW of which half provided by ocean water Predictions - Near-future lake growth rate: 0.4 km 2 a -1 - Lake ~25 km long after 200 years - Glacial sediment deposit in the lake and not compensating for coastal abrasion - Input to studies of earth response to glacier variations
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