Yankee Ingenuity Will Capture the Prize

Transcription

1 The Elusive Bonanza

2 Yankee Ingenuity Will Capture the Prize

3 Chasing a Chasing a Mirage

4 Decades of Quiet, Punctuated by Outbreaks of Hoopla and Hype An oil shale industry could be initiated by 2011 with initial production of 200,000 b/pd, with an aggressive goal of 2 million b/pd by Ultimate capacity could reach 10 million b/pd report funded by the U.S. Department t of Energy

5 Colorado Oil Shale Follies : Long play starring dreamers, hucksters, gullible reporters, deluded federal officials, local boosters, stock swindlers, dedicated engineers and one Black Sunday

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7 Oil Price Canadian tar sands ethanol GTL CTL

8 1/10,000 th of global energy, much less than animal manure

9 Is God Brazilian? Sub-salt at Tupi Single well costs $100 million; development will take decades

10 Petroleum Quality FLU UID QAU ULITY ity) (A API grav CONVENTIONAL UNCONVENTIONAL ROCK QUALITY (permeability in md)

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13 Prudhoe Bay: 15 billion barrels Shell already has rights to $1 trillion of shale GONE

14 Petroleum Quality FLU UID QAU ULITY ity) (A API grav CONVENTIONAL UNCONVENTIONAL ROCK QUALITY (permeability in md)

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17 Petroleum Quality FLU UID QAU ULITY ity) (A API grav CONVENTIONAL UNCONVENTIONAL ROCK QUALITY (permeability in md)

18 70000 North Dakota Oil Production kb North Dakota has produced d more oil in the last 15 years than the global oil shale industry has in the last 150 years

19 Kerogen Is Not Petroleum, Tons Are Not Barrels FLU UID QAU ULITY ity) (A API grav CONVENTIONAL UNCONVENTIONAL ROCK QUALITY (permeability in md)

20 Immature Source Rock accumulation of organics and clay burial - organic black shale deeper burial - kerogen Wishing Can t Make it So oil generation & migration

21 In reality, so-called oil shale is a low-grade, high-ash, hydrogen- rich, sapropelic coal --Utah Geology Prof

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23 Cap n Crunch contains 3 times more energy per pound than oil shale

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26 The image cannot be displayed. Your computer may not have enough memory to open the image, or the image may have been corrupted. Restart your computer, and then open the file again. If the red x still appears, you may have to delete the image and then insert it again. Shell T G E B hell s Rube Goldberg M W T M W H P W F W S S F S W B Z

27 D B D Energy Return Will be Very Low

28 100,000 b/d operation would be the largest single user of electricity on Earth

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31 Carbon Budget must be divided between nations, generations, and fuels BAU ( 6 C+) (~3 C) (~2 C) Path for 50% chance of avoiding T avg >2 C (gold) is much more demanding than path for 50% chance of avoiding >3 C (green).

32 The Ultimate IQ test Other energy alternatives make much more sense

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40 The image cannot be displayed. Your computer may not have enough memory to open the image, or the image may have been corrupted. Restart your computer, and then open the file again. If the red x still appears, you may have to delete the image and then insert it again. Shell s IS P F C I T F W T M W H P W F W S S F S W B Z

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45 Home Delivery

46 U.S. OIL PRODUCTION 1900 TO 2050 PEAK 1970 GONE: 65% OF U.S. OIL HAS BEEN USED. IT S HISTORY. DOWN 2001 THE OIL OFF RAMP

47 Steady State Scenario OPEC stays ~35 million b/d World peaks at 86 million b/d in actual forecast millio on b/d OPEC FSU FSU OPEC Non-OPEC - FSU Non-OPEC - FSU

48 We have already begun an energy transition U.S. using 2 million b/d less oil today than 5 years ago

49 Remaining Oil Conventional: 1000 Bb Tar Sands: 500 billion Bitumen: 500 billion Oil Shale: 1000 billion Coal Liquids: 5000 billion

50 Dostoevsky in Crime and Punishment: Do you think I care if they talk nonsense? Hogwash! I am a man, therefore I talk nonsense. Nobody ever got a single truth without talking nonsense fourteen times first. Maybe even a hundred and fourteen. That s all right in its own way. We don t evenknow how to talk nonsense intelligently, though!

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52 Range of heating values for regional coals (maximum, minimum and average BTU/lb) 16,000 14,000 12,000 10, ,851 12,697 8,000 6,000 8,220 4,000 2,000 0 Colorado Coal Active Mines OIL SHALE Powder River Basin coal average (mean) heat content (BTU/lb) Eastern bituminous Sources: Colorado Geological Survey, Colorado Coal Quality Data (Information Series 58); USGS, CoalQual Database; USGS Professional Paper 1625-A.

53 Energy Content of Fuels natural gas crude oil coal cattle manure firewood municipal trash oil shale baked potatoes Million BTU/ton

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56 Time deformation, oil migration & accumulation in a trap

57 Time

58 The Petroleum Kitchen Oil window Gas window

59 The image cannot be displayed. Your computer may not have enough memory to open the image, or the image may have been corrupted. Restart your computer, and then open the file again. If the red x still appears, you may have to delete the image and then insert it again. C I W T M W H P W F W S S F S W B Z

60 Do we have the time, capital, carbon, and water to pursue this marginal energy resource? Don t we have better choices? things to do? Is oil shale an idea whose time has passed, whose time will never come, whose time never was, whose time has come, or whose time has passed?

61 60 RESOURCE QUALITY AND UNCONVENTIONALS LITY ty) FLU UID QUA (A API gravi OIL FROM MATURE SOURCE ROCKS 10 OIL SHALE EXTRA-HEAVY OIL/BITUMEN ROCK QUALITY (permeability in md)

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