GIS-based Quantitative Assessment for Hazard Area of Gigantic Volcanic Eruptions in Japan

Transcription

1 / (,**3), 12*,**2 +* 1,**3, GISbased Quantitative Assessment for Hazard Area of Gigantic Volcanic Eruptions in Japan Takahiro Y AMAMOTO, Tatsuro C HIBA, Yoshinori M ATSUNAGA, Akira M IYAMOTO and Michihisa T ANAKA Highlevel radioactive waste has to be disposed in a stable geological formation at a depth of more than ** meters Infrequent geological and climate processes and their e# ects, however, can not be perfectly ignored in / 0 +* to +* years longterm future assessments Therefore, we must evaluate the hazard area and probability of infrequent disruption which will not be excluded by the selection program of the final repository site This study deals with gigantic volcanic eruptions, forming large collapse calderas, as one of the assessments and constructs the GIStool for its scenario analysis Our GIStool is composed of ( + ) database of eruptive history of largecaldera volcanoes in Japan during Quaternary time and (,) program to calculate twotype circular hazard areas The first hazard area is defined as a crustal deformation zone due to growth of the magma chamber using a sill model The second hazard area shows a runout distance of a largevolume of pyroclastic flow on the ground using a subcritical flow model (Bursik and Woods, +330) Key words : caldera, pyroclastic flow, highlevel radioactive waste, hazard area, GIS + +* +*,**,**1 (,**,) +/ km +** +/ km km +** km * km +*/ *** , Tsukuba */ 2/01, Japan,+/ *** +,, Japan Nuclear Energy Safety Organization, Safety Standard Division, +1+, Toranomon, Minatoku, Asia Air Survey Co Ltd, +,,, Manpukuji, Asaoku, Tokyo +*/ ***+, Japan Kawasaki, Kanagawa,+/ ***, Japan : */ 2/ Corresponding author: Takahiro Yamamoto Geological Survey of Japan, AIST Central 1, Higashi tyamamoto@aistgojp

2 74 Connor and Hill, +33/ JNES (Perry et al,,**+ ; Sheridan, +33, ) Yucca Mountain (YMP), (DOE) YMP ArcGIS (TSPASR) Smith et al (,**,) ArcGIS DOE Arc Smith GIS ArcGIS,, : : : : DOE TSPA + SR, (km DRE: Density Rock Equivalent) (coignimbrite ash fall) (JNES) (,**) (GIS) 1 : / : / +, ArcGIS (ArcView 3, SP DAnalyst) (,**) GIS +1

3 75 Fig + The first page of the GIS system for hazard area of gigantic volcanic eruptions in Japan Red triangles show caldera volcanoes on the Red Relief Image Map for the Japan islands + +,) + ) + ),) ) ) + ) (precaldera tumescence ; Smith and Bailey, +302 ),**,) + m D +* +** m +* m s ( Dt) t 0, +, */ +** +* km +** )

4 76 Fig, An output image of data table for a caldera volcano, Google Earth kml kmz, W (Sun, +303) (km DRE) (Bursik and Woods, +330) ArcGIS h (km) B (km) a (km) Sun ( +303) V m

5 77 Fig Basic concept for hazard area of a gigantic volcanic eruption forming a large collapse caldera Schematic sections of caldera collapse are taken from Whitney and Stormer ( +320) Whitney and Stormer ( +320) Sun ( +303 ) ( +0) Accocella r W (,**1) WBsinq, cosq, (Whitney and Stormer, +320) q ( +/ ) r h a qarccot, ah,,, k Sun ( +303) (km DRE),,,, + r h, h,, + (s) a a a fountain r (km) ( +/ ) q T (K) arccot * q p, q p q W +** +* + * + m a B R (J/K kg) T a (K) V (m/s) s n * *

6 78 Fig An output image of precaldera uplifting area Fig / An output image of runout area for the for the Aso pyroclastic flow case (magma Aso pyroclastic flow case (magma volume: volume : ** km DRE ; depth of magma chamber : ** km DRE; eruption time : **** s) and the +/ km) W and r are vertical dislocation and Ito pyroclastic flow area (magma volume: +0 radius of uplifted area, using sill model km DRE; eruption time : **** s), using Bursik and Woods ( +330) model ** km DRE, / +/ km ** km DRE, **** s +0 km DRE, **** s a (kg/m ), a R T (N/m ) a a Bursik and Woods ( +330),,, V + n* Ta r fr * ln V n TT (,*) + + art a a Mfb* V V nrt, M : r V; b Bursik and Woods ( +330 ) ( +3) fountain f s * * a f

7 79 Bursik and Woods ( +330 ) + ms JNES +3 M f Bursik and Woods ( +330) M f / +* +* s Bursik and Woods ( +330) +* s, 1 /* km DRE 01km +2+/ +* Acocella, V (,**1) Understanding caldera structure and ++ ; Sigurdsson and Carey, +323 developments : an overview of analogue models compared to natural calderas Earth Sci Rev, 2/, +,/ +0* Bursik, MI and Woods, AW ( +330) The dynamics and +* s thermodynamics of large ash flows Bull Volcanol, /2, +1/ +3 Connor, CB and Hill, BE ( +33/ ) Three nonhomogeneous Poisson models for the probability of basaltic volcanism : **** s ++ application of the Yucca Mountain region, Nevada J / Geophys Res, +**, +*+*1 +*+,/ (,**,),, p ( +333), + JNC TN+** 33 *,+ (,**) 0* p Perry, FV, Valentine, GA, Desmarais, EK and Wolde Gabriel, G (,**+) Probabilistic assessment of volcanic hazard to radioactive waste repositories in Japan : intersection by a dike from a nearby composite volcano Geology,,3,,//,/2 (,**1) no /3 Sheridan, MF ( +33, ) A Monte Carlo technique to estimate the probability of volcanic dikes: highlevel radio active waste management In: Proceedings of the Third Int Conf, +33,, Las Vegas, Nevada,,*,*2 Sigurdsson, H and Carey, S ( +323) Plinian and coignimbrite tephra fall from the +2+/ eruption of Tambora volcano Bull Volcano, /+,,,1* ( +33/ ) /3* p Smith, EI, Keenan, DL and Terry, P (,**,) Episodic volcanism and hot mantle : implications for volcanic Yellowstone Long hazard studies at the proposed nuclear waste repository Valley at Yucca Mountain, Nevada GSA Today, +,, 3 +33/ p,1,2 Smith, RL and Bailey, RA ( +302) Resurgent cauldrons Geol Soc Am Mem, ++0, 0+00,

8 80 Sun, R J ( +303 ) Theoretical size of hydraulically induced +, +, horizontal fractures and corresponding surface uplift in Whitney, JA and Stormer, Jr, JC ( +320) Model for the an idealized medium J Geophys Res, 1, /33/ 0*++ intrusion of batholiths associated with the eruption of (,**) co largevolume ashflow tu# s Science,,+, 2 2/ ignimbrite ash,**