Probabilistic Analysis of Earthquake Risk. Baja California Case, México

Transcription

1 Probabilistic Analysis of Earthquake Risk. Baja California Case, México Mario González-Durán Daniela Patricia Madrigal Machain Talía Isabel Hernández Sánchez ECITEC-Universidad Autónoma de Baja California July, 12, 2018

2 OUTLINE OF PRESENTATION I. Instruction Basics Concepts Seismic Hazard Assessment Model II. Methodology Hazard Model Vulnerability Evaluation Integrity Information III. Results Damage on buildings Impact on the population IV. Conclusions The importance of using a Geographic Information System

3 I. Introduction Basics Concepts Risk Pan-European Seismic Risk Assessment, 2015 Pr CȁE = σ e E σ5 n=0 σ 12 F k=1 σ j=a Pr CȁD n, V j Pr D n ȁi k, V j Pr I k ȁe P r V j, Zechar, 2014

4 Seismic Hazard Plate boundary rate is about 50 mm/yr of strain accumulation About 10-15% is coastal or offshore Rockwell, 2015

5 Seismic Hazard Seismic Hazard Model EZ-FRISK HAZUS-MH OpenSHA CRISIS2007 PAGER SEISMOCARE Calculation Method PSHA PSHA PSHA PSHA/DSHA DSHA DSHA

6 Assessment Model Seismic risk assessment model Developer organization and regions of influence Type of results Hazus FEMA; USA Estimates lost buildings; facilities, transportation; estimation of the vulnerable and affected population. RADIUS IDNDR; Emerging Countries Seismic intensity; damage to buildings; Affectation to the Population. Platform management Interactive; Complex Static; simple SEISMOCARE European Comission; Greece. Seismic intensity; damage to buildings, injuries, estimate of the cost of losses due to damage. Static; moderate GEM Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD); some countries of North Africa. Lost for damage to buildings, social and economic impact. Interactive; Moderate CAPRA Global Initiative for Disaster Reduction and Building Rehabilitation; Countries of Central America (Belize, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua and Panama). Economic losses due to property, probable and expected maximum, and the occupation of the occupants in deaths and injuries. Interactive; Complex SELENA International Center of Geological Hazards of Norway; Norway Physical and economic damages to buildings; number of injured. Static; moderate. KMH (Karmania Hazard Model) Kerman Disaster Management Center; Kerman, Iran.. Daño a edificaciones y reporte de victimas. Interactive; moderate. R. Hassanzadeh, Z. Nedović- Budić, A. Alavi Razavi, M. Norouzzadeh, and H. Hodhodkian, Interactive approach for GIS-based earthquake scenario development and resource estimation (Karmania hazard model), Comput. Geosci., vol. 51, pp , Feb

7 Location of study area City Population Tijuana, B.C , 570 Mexicali, B.C. 988, 417 INEGI, 2015

8 Assessment Model Cardona, 2016

9 II. Methodology Hazard Model Seismic Sources (USGS) 1. Coronado Bank 2. Rose Canyon 3. Laguna Salada 4. Imperial 5. San Jacinto 1 6. San Jacinto 2 Cardona, 2005

10 II. Methodology Results Seismic Hazard Model Tijuana City Hazard. Cardona, 2005 Mexicali City Hazard.

11 II. Methodology Vulnerability Evaluation. Focused on homes of 1 and 2 levels Vulnerability functions for houses of one level. Vulnerability functions for two-level houses

12 II. Methodology Integrity Information

13 III. Results Damage on building, considering only houses of one and two levels Tijuana City Mexicali City

14 III. Results Impact on the Population, considering only houses of one and two levels Tijuana City Mexicali City

15 IV. Conclusions The importance of using a Geographic Information System The use of Geographic Information Systems in Civil Engineering studies, as well as, in other areas, is to have a powerful tool that allows to perform probability and statistical correlations, as well as having the possibility of graphically reflecting and geolocating the results obtained when these are associated with any kind of affectation in the population.

16 Thank you!!! Probabilistic Analysis of Earthquake Risk. Baja California Case, México González-Durán, Mario Madrigal-Machain, Daniela Patricia Hernández-Sánchez, Talía Isabel