Population Dynamics of Arctic Alaska A graphical library of demographic change in 43 towns and villages,

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Population Dynamics of Arctic Alaska A graphical library of demographic change in 43 towns and villages, 1990 2013 Contribution to the Sustainable Futures North (SFN)

1 Population Dynamics of Arctic Alaska A graphical library of demographic change in 43 towns and villages, Contribution to the Sustainable Futures North (SFN) project, supported by the U.S. National Science Foundation Lawrence Hamilton Richard Lammers Stanley Glidden Kei Saito (Lawrence.Hamilton@unh.edu) University of New Hampshire May 2014

2 43 Arctic Alaska communities map from Hamilton & Mitiguy (2009)

3 Sustainable Futures North (SFN): Water, energy and food security in the North The SFN project explores possible synergies among the goals of food, water and energy security, as well as resource development in the North American Arctic. Combines integrated regional assessments of water, food, and energy systems in 3 regions: Bristol Bay and Kotzebue Sound (Alaska) and Baffin Island (Canada), which face challenges related to climate change, socioeconomic change, and industrial development. Research methods in the project s interdisciplinary toolkit include key informant interviews, integration and analysis of secondary data, climate change downscaling, engineering best practice and gap analysis, and rural-urban network analysis. Findings of this research will inform a collaborative education and outreach program designed to build capacity through workforce development, STEM internships, and post-secondary curricula and programs in environmental management and engineering. This collaborative effort is directed by Philip Loring (lead, University of Alaska Fairbanks), Henry Huntington (Huntington Consulting), Lawrence Hamilton (University of New Hampshire) and Shari Gearheard (Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences). Researchers will travel to communities in the study regions of Bristol Bay and Kotzebue Sound in Alaska, and Baffin Island in Canada, to conduct interviews with key personnel in the communities. Additional activities include mediated modeling, integrated analysis of socioeconomic and biophysical data, engineering best practice and gap analysis, and rural-urban network analysis. Arctic Science, Education and Engineering for Sustainability (ArcSEES) project, supported by a grant from the U.S. National Science Foundation (PLR )

4 Population and vital statistics data Annual mid-year estimates of community population were obtained from the U.S. Census or, between Census years, the Alaska Department of Labor and Workforce Development. The Department of Labor and Workforce Development estimates population using administrative data, notably Permanent Fund Dividend applications a unique resource permitting what the U.S. Census Bureau has judged to be the most accurate yearly estimates of any U.S. state (Alaska Department of Labor and Workforce Development 2008). Counts of births and deaths in each fiscal year are provided by the Alaska Bureau of Vital Statistics. Fiscal year 2013, for example, counts births and deaths from July through June This corresponds approximately to the time frame of population counts as well. Net migration each year is estimated from the difference between this year s population, and last year s population adjusted for births and deaths. More details and discussion of these data and the graphical approach can be found in the following papers: Hamilton, L.C. and A.M. Mitiguy Visualizing population dynamics of Alaska s Arctic communities. Arctic 62(4): Hamilton, L.C., D.M. White, R.B. Lammers and G. Myerchin Population, climate and electricity use in the Arctic: Integrated analysis of Alaska community data. Population and Environment 33(4): doi: /s Hamilton, L.C. Climate and demographic change in Arctic Alaska Pp in K.G. Hansen, R.O. Rasmussen and R. Weber (eds.), Proceedings from the First International Conference on Urbanisation in the Arctic. Stockholm, Sweden: Nordregio.

5 Temperature and precipitation data Sampling MERRA climate data for Alaskan communities NASA's Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) climate reanalysis product (Rienecker et al., 2011) generated by the GMAO office was used to produce temperature and precipitation inputs for each of the n = 51 Alaskan communities. The MERRA products were created using version of the Goddard Earth Observing System model (GEOS-5 DAS) with a spatial resolution of ½ x 2/3 of a degree over the temporal range from 1979 to present and a 6-hour time step. The temperature and precipitation data were aggregated to monthly time steps and latitude and longitude coordinates for each community were used to extract the climate time series with nearest neighbor sampling. Rienecker, Michele M., and Coauthors (2011) MERRA: NASA s Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications. Journal of Climate, doi: The central web address for the MERRA products is

6 Bethel Census Area Aniak Bethel Tuluksak

10 Dillingham Census Area Aleknagik Dillingham Manokotak New Stuyahok Togiak

16 Nome Census Area Brevig Mission Diomede Elim Gambell Golovin Koyuk Nome Saint Michael Savoonga Shaktoolik Shishmaref Stebbins Teller Unalakleet Wales White Mountain

33 Anaktuvuk Pass Atqasuk Barrow Kaktovik Nuiqsut Point Hope Point Lay Wainwright North Slope Borough

42 Northwest Arctic Borough Ambler Buckland Deering Kiana Kivalina Kobuk Kotzebue Noatak Noorvik Selawik Shungnak

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