Status of Atmospheric Winds in Relation to Infrasound. Douglas P. Drob Space Science Division Naval Research Laboratory Washington, DC 20375

Transcription

1 Status of Atmospheric Winds in Relation to Infrasound Douglas P. Drob Space Science Division Naval Research Laboratory Washington, DC 20375

2 GOT WINDS? Douglas P. Drob Space Science Division Naval Research Laboratory Washington, DC 20375

3 G.O.T.S. WIND? Douglas P. Drob Space Science Division Naval Research Laboratory Washington, DC 20375

4 Today s Menu NOAA NCEP GFS CONUS RUC NOMADS NCAR WRF ARW NMM NASA GMAO GEOS-5 MERRA NRL SSD HWM07/MSISE-00 G2S-RT/E

5 Today s Menu NOAA NCEP - GFS - CONUS RUC - NOMADS - NCAR - WRF ARM - NMM - NASA GMAO - GEOS MERRA - NRL SSD - HWM07/MSISE G2S-RT/E (In Season)

6 Global Forecast System (GFS) Nation s Operational Workhorse (analysis and forecasts, 6 hours intervals, out to 16 days) This is the only global numerical weather prediction model for which all output is free, over the internet (as a result of U.S. law), and as such is the basis for most web based forecast services, AccuWeather, The Weather Channel, the Weather Underground etc. Model Specifics Horizontal- spectral triangular 254 (T254); gaussian grid of 768X384, 0.5 x 0.5 degree latitude/longitude. Vertical 0 45 km (0.27 hpa), sigma coordinates, 64 layers with enhanced resolution at bottom and top Physics - Data available in GRIB/GRIB2 format (high demand/high volume, redundant operational servers, 24/7). Now ftp://ftp.ncep.noaa.gov/pub/data/nccf/com/gfs/prod ftp://tgftp.nws.noaa.gov/sl.us008001/st.opnl/mt.gfs_cy.00 Historical (see NOMADS)

7 Rapid Update Cycle (RUC) High-frequency (every 1h) short-range weather model forecasts (out to 12+ h) in support of aviation and other mesoscale weather forecast users. 13 x 13 km and 20 x20 horizontal resolution numerical forecast model +analysis/assimilation system to initialize that model, hybrid-sigma vertical coordinates, 50 native levels up to 100 mb (~15 km) D Fields [u,v] components of wind height pressure virtual potential temperature water vapor mixing ratio vertical velocity [cloud, rain] water mixing ratios [ice, snow, graupel] mixing ratio cloud ice number concentration turbulence kinetic energy 46 2-D fields

8 From -

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10 The NOAA National Operational Model Archive and Distribution System (NOMADS) is a Web-services based project providing both real-time and retrospective format independent access to climate and weather model data.

11 Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) See links (RUC2 is WRF NMM) For OCONUS operations ask Air Force Weather Agency (AFWA) -or- Navy Fleet Numerical Meteorology and Oceanography Center (FNMOC) for Couple Ocean Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System (COAMPS). Leverage radionuclide transport modeling efforts.

12 GEOS-5/MERRA Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS-5) 1/2 x 2/3 degree global model on 72 sigma levels up to 0.01 hpa (~80 km). Same data assimilation scheme as GFS + extra data, physics, post validation. Focused of data assimilation for climate/geophysical research, not forecasting. Documentation - Rienecker et al. (NASA Tech Memo) and references therein. Modern Era Retrospective-Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) Reprocessing of atmospheric observations from 1979 to present using the GEOS-5 Data Assimilation System; through 2007 to be completed by August, The focus of MERRA is the hydrological cycle. For data access -

13 From Michele Rienecker (NASA GSFC)

14 From

15 GEOS-5 still better than climatology below 65 km on any given day! (DPD) From later in presentation (DPD) From Steve Pawson (NASA GSFC)

16 HWM07 (+NRLMSIS-E) The recently upgraded Horizontal Wind Model (HWM07) provides a statistical representation of the horizontal wind fields of the Earth s atmosphere from the ground to the exosphere (0 to 500 km). It is a empirical model (a compact Fortran-90 subroutine) that is function of geographic location, altitude, day of the year, solar local time, and geomagnetic activity. The model includes representations of the zonal mean circulation, stationary planetary waves, migrating tides, and the seasonal modulation thereof; these are forced harmonic oscillation which to first order dominate the meteorology of the upper atmosphere. There are 18,840 unknown model parameters that are estimated with a novel sequential estimation process from available data points from 35 different satellite, rocket, and ground-based instruments spanning a period of over 50 years. Drob, D. P., et al. (2008), An empirical model of the Earth s horizontal wind fields: HWM07, J. Geophys. Res., 113, A12304, doi: /2008ja

17 HWM07 Observational Database

18 Average WINDII zonal winds as function of height (black), and corresponding results from HWM93 (red) and HWM07 (blue). The results represent quiet-time (Kp< 3), December solstice (November-February) conditions in the indicated local time and latitude bins. The models were evaluated for the conditions of each observation, then binned and averaged in the same way as the data. Error bars denote the estimated uncertainty of the mean.

19 Same as last figure, except for the meridional component.

20 Ground to Space (G2S)

21 G2S