Prediction of land use and transport changes in dynamic environments modelling the bipolar Vienna Bratislava metropolitan region

Transcription

1 Prediction of land use and transport changes in dynamic environments modelling the bipolar Vienna Bratislava metropolitan region CUPUM July 2007 Iguassu Falls, Brasilia

2 The region Vienna Bratislava: history and status quo Index national = 100 Index EU = 100 Gross regional product in PPP per person Bratislava district Vienna Vienna Northern hinterland Vienna Southern hinterland Burgenland North Pfaffenbichler, Haller, Emberger, Pontikakis Page 2 of 15 Quelle: (Hrdina et al., 2002) S. 4, (MA 18 - Stadtentwicklung und Stadtplanung, 2003)

3 The model MARS of the region Vienna - Bratislava Complexity through spatial detail Complexity through systems involved MARS 1. No model 2. Simple cost based 3. Spreadsheet model 4. Sketch planning model 5. Network assignment model without elastic assignment 6. Network assignment model with elastic assignment 7. Network assignment model in conjunction with external demand / mode-choice model 8. Four stage model 9. Land-use Transportation Interaction (LUTI) model 10. Strategic Transport/ Environment Model Pfaffenbichler, Haller, Emberger, Pontikakis Page 3 of 15

4 The model MARS of the region Vienna - Bratislava CLD of the land use sub model - Land available for development + New Housing + Housing stock H1- H3- H Attractiveness to develop + Excess demand for - housing Land Price H2+ Rent + + Population Green areas Accessibility Pfaffenbichler, Haller, Emberger, Pontikakis Page 4 of 15 Source: Pfaffenbichler et. al. (2006)

5 The model MARS of the region Vienna - Bratislava CLD of the transport sub model Source: Pfaffenbichler et. al. (2006) Pfaffenbichler, Haller, Emberger, Pontikakis Page 5 of 15

6 The model MARS of the region Vienna - Bratislava Quantitative realisation of the model in Vensim Supply HU J T-1> Stock HU J> d(r) in c(r) in b(r) in a(r) in k supply HU e(r) in Attractiveness moving in Accessibility Access Attr <Recreational green land J> Recreational green land Attr Rent Attr <access to wp> a(r) out Attractiveness moving out b(r) out c(r) out d(r) out <Housing costs> Residents out J Avg time living at the same HU Residents potential in J Potential residents move in HUs made available J Residents J t=0 Residents per HU J t=0 Residents total <Unsatisfied demand residents J T-1> Residents in Growth rate population T Residents Residents out Unsatisfied demand residents J T-1 Residents move in J Residents J Residents move out J Pfaffenbichler, <New Haller, HU Emberger, Pontikakis <Residents Page out J> 6 of 15 occupiable> Unsatisfied demand residents J <Residents potential in J> <Residents out J> Supply HU J T-1 Supply HU J T <Residents per

7 The model MARS of the region Vienna - Bratislava Pfaffenbichler, Haller, Emberger, Pontikakis Page 7 of 15

8 The model MARS of the region Vienna - Bratislava Pfaffenbichler, Haller, Emberger, Pontikakis Page 8 of 15

9 The model MARS of the region Vienna - Bratislava Commuting trips 100,000 y = x R 2 = y = x R 2 = Census ,000 1,000 y = x R 2 = Slow PT Car Linear (PT) Linear (Car) Linear (Slow) ,000 10, ,000 Pfaffenbichler, Haller, Emberger, Pontikakis Page 9 of 15 MARS 2001

10 Transport infrastructure projects Rail Main lines Regional lines Improvements New construction Pfaffenbichler, Haller, Emberger, Pontikakis Page 10 of 15 Source:

11 Transport infrastructure projects Road Highways Inter-regional roads New construction Source: Pfaffenbichler, Haller, Emberger, Pontikakis Page 11 of 15

12 First results car-km/resident and day Pfaffenbichler, Haller, Emberger, Pontikakis Page 12 of 15

13 First results Link with animated GIS Pfaffenbichler, Haller, Emberger, Pontikakis Page 13 of 15

14 Conclusions The special history and situation of the region Vienna Bratislava requires dynamic modelling. The model MARS of the region Vienna Bratislava is still under development. Important task like calibrating the land use part have not yet been carried out due to difficulties with data availability. First results for a Do nothing -scenario show a continuing trend of suburbanisation and increase in car use. In the next step we will define different policy instruments and strategies and calculate their effects on land use, transport and the environment. Pfaffenbichler, Haller, Emberger, Pontikakis Page 14 of 15

15 We would like to thank the Wiener Wirtschaftskammer, for funding the underlying project PLUTO (Prediction of Land Use and Transport changes due to Open borders a modelling framework for the Vienna Bratislava metropolitan region). Thank you for your attention! Paul Pfaffenbichler Tel.: +43 (1) Fax: +43 (1) paul.pfaffenbichler@tuwien.ac.at