Social-ecological feedbacks between climate, reindeer and people - contributions to climate change adaptation?

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1 Social-ecological feedbacks between climate, reindeer and people - contributions to climate change adaptation? Jukka Käyhkö 1, Tim Horstkotte 1, Sonja Kivinen 1 & Bernt Johansen 2 1 Department of Geography and Geology, University of Turku, Finland 2 Norut IT, Tromsø, Norway EGU Session BG Photo: Tove Agnes Utsi

2 The circumpolar tundra ecosystem...has no escape in warming climate NO PLACE TO GO Circumpolar Arctic Vegetation Map (CAVM) with five subzones of tundra vegetation Walker et al. J. Veg Sci 16, 2005

3 The Sámi reindeer husbandry...is facing a multitude of challenges sociocultural changes landscape fragmentation *Sámi are the indigenous people of northern Fennoscandia and NE Russia climate/ vegetation change administration / policies economy land allocation tourism forestry mining

4 Projected changes in mean annual temperature ( C) Today 2070 (RCP 4.5) +4 C Temperatures are derived from WorldClim data (spatial resolution 2.5 arc min; ~ 5 km x 2.5 km) Today = period Projected temperatures in 2070 are based on 17 global circulation models (GCM; CMIP5) 2070 (RCP 8.5) Global average ~ +2 C +6 C Global average ~ +4 C

5 Shrubification: tundra is (first) turning into a shrubby forest (in the photo: willow [Salix])

6 snow CO 2 CH 4 predation min T albedo administration Sámi culture From data to information to knowledge vegetation moth damage biodiversity trees rodent herbivory shrubs rare plants lichens reindeer management reindeer herbivory soil properties

7 Tundra structure: 8 work packages in 3 realms Abiotic changes (temperature, snow, freeze-thaw cycles...) Sámi culture and reindeer herding practices (ecology, economy, politics, ) Biotic changes (vole dynamics, moth dynamics, birch forest structure & function, food webs ) Integration and analysis of information from work packages GIS database building soft data from the reindeer workshops narratives and ccenarios for decision makers modelling the entity with a systems model (ABM?)

8 A quick tour to some NCoE Tundra highlights

9 Seamless cross-border vegetation/land cover map in 30 m resolution Vegetation types in Northern Fennoscandia Mountain vegetation and open lowland; 28.3% of the land area: Heath/Grass/Meadow/Dwarf shrub; 13.3% Lichen heath; 0.5% Heather ridge; 2.2% Bedrock/Boulder; 2.9% Snow patch vegetation; 7.9% Glacier/Snow; 2.4% Forest/Mire; 70.3% of the land area Mapping based on 64 Landsat TM/ETM+ images from Extensive field checks of the reliability & representativeness

10 Birch damages by moth caterpillars Egg survival over winter is temperature dependent: T below -36 C kills the eggs -> inversions, cold air drainage and snow thickness have local impact m asl Katja Kosonen, MSc thesis 2014

11 Birch forest killed by autumnal moth in (50 years!) Today still no recovery -> reindeer are harvesting the seedles

12 Arctic greening and the role of grazers to slow it down REINDEER For all 50+ NCoE Tundra publications, visit: LEMMING VOLE

13 Different reindeer husbandry systems across Fennoscandia Summer pastures Spring / autumn pastures Winter pastures Year-round pastures

14 Similar average annual reindeer densities (2.5 /km 2 ), but different pasture rotation Finland; few Betula trees Norway; dense Betula forest National border + reindeer fence -> albedo impact

15 No trees - pale white

16 Pasture rotation -> vegetation -> snow cover -> albedo + Albedo - Melting season Finland - Absorption + Norway Finland Due to different grazing practices and vegetation cover, fractional snow cover is larger and albedo 5% higher on the Finnish side during melting period à lower solar absorption Cohen et al. (2013), Remote Sens. Environ. 135 During March-May, the heat balance difference between Finland and Norway (in the study area of km 2 ) is enough to melt 1 km 3 of ice -> treeless tundra sustains climate change mitigation! 1 km 1 km

17 Reindeer herd size Sweden Norway Finland Year Epirrita autumnata: Ca year regional periodicity in outbreak dynamics in northern Fennoscandia (Ruhomäki et al. 2000) Herbivory has different non-linear impacts at various spatial and temporal scales L. & T. Oksanen, unpublished Of these, only reindeer can be effectively controlled

18 Reindeer is a potential victim and a stakeholder...so we organised workshops Norway Finland Russia Sweden 6 districts 2 in each country (Norway, Sweden & Finland) autumn-winter structured round-table discussion with herders and academics 16 questions, 4 hrs

19 Socio-ecological hoof print Social landscape: nature is a home a community of biotic actors with whom to have social life... livelihoods are interwoven with conservation goals. we need to understand stakeholder behaviour (Heller & Hobbs 2014) Landscape of multiple values, priorities and practices based on social heterogeneity KEY MESSAGES: yes, changes are happening Can we implement existing most changes are negative, not all grazing practices we can adapt (always had) as management tool on large young generation is willing to spatial scales? continue the livelihood other land uses disturb herding administrative changes are the serious bottleneck (little selfgovernance) Photo: more Philip stakeholder Burgess discussion needed

20 The co-evolving relationship between people and nature Science ( the truth ) Communication Policy ( power ) What are the ecological consequences of the decline in tundra habitat? Does the decline in tundra habitat warrant a change in policy? Co-production of knowledge by science and society needed for policy decisions (Vogel et al., 2007) Resilience of reindeer husbandry livelihood will require co-existence of: Viable social-cultural-economic system Critical ecosystem functions at variable spatio-temporal scales

21 Decision-making maze of reindeer husbandry Socio-administrative drivers Ecological drivers National Regional Local Patch Landscape Region EU regulations Legislation of transborder grazing Availability / accessibility of grazing resources Mobility across landscapes / borders Certification schemes Weather dynamics Land use legislation Land use planning Power distribution Self-determination Plant community composition Density dependency of reindeer condition Siida decision making Reindeer management Increasing hierarchical organization

22 Conclusions to date reindeer are able to sustain tundra by grazing dramatic influence on albedo -> climate mitigation tool timing of grazing is crucial ->optimization of herding practices however, we have no control on natural herbivory (moth, rodents), which has a strong influence on the ecosystem to harmonize ecological and socio-economic requirements, codesigned scenarios are necessary this will be a choice of socially desirable and ecologically reasonable management: a socio-political process, not scientific decision per se

23 Vision and focus Targets derived from the vision Strategy formulation Mission Current state and capacity X Current knowledge, skills and resources Next steps action plan New knowledge, skills and resources required by the vision Visionary development activities

24 NCoE Tundra Partners NCoE Tundra Team: Lauri Oksanen, Pekka Niemelä, Lars Ericson, Bruce C. Forbes, Jane Uhd Jepsen, Bernt Johansen, Erkki Korpimäki, Annamari Markkola, Tarja Oksanen, Johan Olofsson, Jouni Pulliainen, Tove Aagnes Utsi, Rolf Anker Ims, Juha Tuomi, Risto Virtanen, Annu Ruotsalainen, Jarmo Vehmas, Sami Aikio, Mariska te Beest, Martin Biuw, Anu Eskelinen, Tim Horstkotte, Katrine S. Hoset, Liisa Huttunen, Sonja Kivinen, Elina Koivisto, Cécile B. Ménard, Lise Ruffino, Patrick Saccone, Karita Saravesi, Judith Sitters, Mysore Tejesvi, Piippa Wäli, Saija Ahonen, Antti Aikio, Juval Cohen, Dagmar Egelkraut, Nirmalee Hengodage, Karoliina Huusko, Elina Kaarlejärvi, Maarit Kaukonen, Åsa Larsson Blind, Inkeri Markkula, Miia Kauppinen, Tuija Pyykkönen, Maria Tuomi, Hélène Prouillet- Leplat, Piippa Wäli, Ole Petter L. Vindstad