Cities 2070: What is Truly Sustainable? Antony Wood CTBUH Chief Executive Officer Research Professor, Illinois Institute of Technology

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1 Cities 2070: What is Truly Sustainable? Antony Wood CTBUH Chief Executive Officer Research Professor, Illinois Institute of Technology

2 What are the Biggest Threats to Tall Buildings?

3 Earthquakes? Jiji, Taiwan

4 Fire? Dubai, UAE

5 Terrorism? New York City, USA

6 Funding / Financial Downturns? Torre David, Caracas, Venezuela

7 Negative Connotations? Gate to the East, Suzhou, China

8 Design Flaws / Professional Incompetence? Shanghai, China

9 Or are the Biggest Threats on the Urban Scale?

10 Pressure on space and infrastructure due to population growth and urbanization?

11 Misplaced Cities? Ordos, China

12 Terrorism on an Urban Scale?

13 Urban Pollution?

14 Extreme Natural Events? Houston, Hurricane Ike, 1991

15 Extreme Natural Events? Japan, Earthquake & Tsunami, 2011

16 Extreme Natural Events? New Orleans, Flooding, 2005

17 Climate Change Making many of the other threats worse! Source: NASA

18 9 September 6 weeks ago

19 11 October 1.5 weeks ago The third strongest storm in recorded history to hit the mainland USA

20 New York, USA Hurricane Sandy, 2012

21 Will we one day see the large-scale abandonment of some existing cities?

22 Reconsidering the Sustainability of Cities

23 Student Design Research Studio Sustainable Vertical Urbanism: Towards 2050 with support from:

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25 Overview of Student Projects

26 MARSHLAND Location: Sudd Marsh, South Sudan

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32 SEA Location: Manila Bay, Philippines

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37 POLAR TUNDRA Location: Greenland, Denmark

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43 MOUNTAINS Location: Sikkim, India

44 Mountains / Highlands

45 Mountain / Highlands Sikkim, India

46 Stratification of Climate Burj Khalifa, Dubai External Air temp at top = 8 C cooler

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48 The Shortfall of Tall?

49 Homogenization of Cities Paris Seattle Vancouver

50 The High Rise Menagerie?

51 Shibam, Yemen circa. 16 th Century

52 MOUNTAINS, Project 2 Location: Sikkim, India

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54 DESERT Location: Yobe, Nigeria

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56 GRASSLAND Location: Eastern Equatoria, South Sudan Population Density: 43,375 people / km 2

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59 RAINFOREST Location: Amazon forest, Brazil

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63 Which existing Cities are in the most Sustainable Locations?

64 224 Urban Areas with Population of Over 2 million

65 224 Urban Areas with Population of Over 2 million 45 of these are Megacities

66 224 Urban Areas with Population of Over 2 million Megacities A megacity is an urban agglomeration with a total population of 10 million people or greater, consisting of a continuous built-up area that encompasses one or more city centers and suburban areas, economically and functionally linked to those centers Total Combined Population: 958 million 13% of global population Total Combined Area (sq. km): 990, % of global land surface area Total Number of 200m+ Buildings: % of world s 200m+ buildings

67 224 Urban Areas with Population of Over 2 million

68 Sea Level Rise Impact of 6 Meters (Science, 2015)

69 115 Cities affected - 51%

70 Hurricanes: Level Scale

71 37 Cities affected - 17 %

72 Tornadoes: Level 4 (Highest Frequency & Intensity)

73 3 Cities affected - 1%

74 Seismic Hazard: Levels 4 & 5 (Highest Peak Ground Acceleration)

75 45 Cities affected - 20%

76 Water Stress: Levels 18, 19 & 20 (Highest Stress Level)

77 85 Cities affected - 38%

78 Temperature: Cold Areas: Annual Heating degree days > 2500

79 56 Cities affected - 25%

80 Temperature: Hot Areas : Annual cooling degree days > 1250

81 108 Cities affected - 48%

82 Temperature: Cold + Hot Areas

83 164 Cities affected - 73%

84 59 Cities not affected - 26%

85 All Environmental Factors Combined

86 The Most Inherently Sustainable (or Viable ) Locations?

87 The Most Inherently Sustainable (or Viable ) Locations?

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89 ctbuh.org