Assessing Investment in Future Landsat Instruments for Ecosystem Management: The Example of Forest Carbon Sequestration

Transcription

1 Assessing Investment in Future Landsat Instruments for Ecosystem Management: The Example of Forest Carbon Sequestration Molly K. Macauley Jhih-Shyang Shih ACES December 2010 macauley@rff.org;shih@rff.org

2 The Problem Periodically a decision is made to invest in a follow-on Landsat spacecraft and an instrument suite The decision has a long lead time Selection, funding, sourcing Can we inform the instrument choice decision by describing and estimating the value of future Landsat data

3 Linking Landsat and other Earth Observing Systems to Public Benefits A longstanding concern of some in the community of those who use Landsat A recommendation of the NRC Earth Science Decadal Survey An emphasis of the Office of Science and Technology Policy report on Earth observations A necessary condition to inform congressional decisions

4 Earth Science and Applications from Space: National Imperatives for the Next Decade and Beyond The scientific community must focus on meeting the demands of society explicitly, in addition to satisfying its curiosity about how the Earth system works (ES-1)

5 to realize more of the apparent potential of remotely sensed data to identify ways of making satellite observations more useful sources of data for social science, research on human-environment relations, and other applications. to make potential uses more evident, eventually to the broader social science community. (pp. vii-viii)

6 Remotely sensed data provide a spatial perspective on human health issues not typically incorporated into human health research and applications Health professionals do not typically observe the human land uses and ecological conditions affecting human health from the viewpoint of the remote sensing satellites the visual and spatial perspective fosters a more integrative approach Interdisciplinary and international collaboration are needed between remote sensing scientists, ecologists, and human health scientists to realize the full potential of remote sensing applications ( Challenges and Potential, p. 33)

7 Through these national and international strategies to advance Earth observations, the Obama Administration is working to ensure that our Nation s decision makers, businesses, farmers, health care workers, and indeed all our citizens have the information they need to take actions to improve human well-being and the health of our environment.

8 Who should pay? The observing system is like the heroine tied to the railroad tracks in silent films. Landsat is yanked from doom at the last minute by administrative hatpassing to fund the program (Gabrynowicz 2005, 45). operating beyond their design lifetimes in degraded status and are subject to failure at any time A number of factors have made it difficult for the Congress... Landsat has never had a permanent agency home at NASA for planning and operation, and the project is small compared to the agency s major space activities USGS funding is also limited. (Behrens 2009, 1-3)

9 The Instrument Choice Hyperspectral imager for Landsat 10 in FY2021 Slices the electromagnetic spectrum into very large number of discrete spectral bands, usually more than 100 (Strand et al 2007) Could increase ability to identify tree species thus complementing traditional Landsat area measures of land use Could enhance understanding of carbon sequestration by species, as well as changes in sequestration due to fire, pests, and other disturbances May not be the most preferred instrument choice if carbon sequestration measurement is the only objective** We do not consider joint benefits or co-benefits but strongly recommend this for future research **

10 Casting the Problem as a Value of Information (VOI) Problem We assume that future Landsat data will have inherent science value in informing fundamental understanding We focus on an additional value, that of the value of future Landsat data in informing management of natural and environmental resources

11 Our Case Study: Forest Carbon Sequestration Allometric Expression for Forest Carbon Stock

12 Information about Climate Scenarios (2020 and 2030) Source: U.S.EIA 2009, Table ES-1

13 Cost Effectiveness: Projected Changes in GDP Cumulative change in GDP ranges from -0.2% ($432 billion in 2000 dollars) to -0.9% ($1,897 billion in 2000 dollars) Source: EIA, 2009

14 Illustration of the Model

15 Cost Index

16 Expenditure and Cost Index

17 Scenarios for Attributing Information Value (percent of offset expenditures) all of the studies I know of the value of perfect information find its value to be on the order of one percent of the value of output. The value of information is not zero, but it is not enormous either. halve the standard error of precipitation and temperature gives increased value of output of about 2% of the value of wheat production similar for cotton, nuclear power, energy.. (Nordhaus 1986, 130)

18 Estimated Benefits by Year Basic Case High Offsets No International Offset No Change in VOI for LS 10/11 Slow Adoption

19 Cumulative Discounted Present Value, ($2009 billions)

20 References Macauley, M.K. and J.S. Shih Assessing Investment in Future Landsat Instruments, RFF Discussion Paper 10-14, Washington, DC: Resources for the Future, May. Nordhaus, W The Value of Information, in Richard Krasnow, ed., Policy Aspects of Climate Forecasting (Washington, DC: Resources for the Future). Strand, H., R. Hoft, J. Stritthold, L. Miles, N. Horning, E. Fosnight and W. Turner (eds) Sourcebook on Remote Sensing and Biodiversity Indicators, Convention on Biological Diversity Technical Series No. 32 (Quebec, Montreal Canada: Secretariat of the Convention on Biological Diversity). US Energy Information Administration (EIA) Energy Market and Economic Impacts of H.R SR/OIAF/ (Washington, DC: US EIA)

21 ACKNOWLEDGMENTS Financial support from the USGS and RFF and comments from Rich Bernknopf are greatly appreciated.

22 Selected Standards for Accuracy and Precision of Forest Carbon Data

23 Selected Standards for Accuracy and Precision of Forest Carbon Data (Cont.)

24 We can do even better - is it worth it? Fagan and DeFries, ImageTree

25 Whose information? Geo-WIKI 2009 and McCallum et al 2010