Developing the Transit Demand Index (TDI) Gregory Newmark, Regional Transportation Authority Transport Chicago Presentation July 25, 2012
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1 Developing the Transit Demand Index (TDI) Gregory Newmark, Regional Transportation Authority Transport Chicago Presentation July 25, 2012
2 Outline Present RTA methodology Transit Demand Index (TDI) Demonstrate online application Regional Transit Index Data Viewer
3 How to Assess the Demand for Transit in Chicago s Suburbs?
4 Methodology Must: 1. Be simple to apply and interpret 2. Rely on available, frequently updated data 3. Scale to different geographies 4. Emphasize planning variables 5. Quantify the demand
5 Existing Methodologies 1. Density Thresholds 2. Relative Comparison 3. Multiple Regression
6 Density Thresholds Nelson/Nygaard Consulting Associates
7 Existing Methodologies 1. Density Thresholds 2. Relative Comparison 3. Multiple Regression
8 Existing Methodologies 1. Density Thresholds 2. Relative Comparison 3. Multiple Regression
9 Multiple Regression Example: Housing Price = 90(SQFT) (#Bedrooms) - 700(Age) Generic Form Y = B 1 X 1 + B 2 X 2 + B 3 X 3 Y = Dependent Variable (What we are predicting) X = Explanatory Variable (What we use to predict) B = Coefficients (How much each variable contributes)
10 Multiple Regression DVRPC Transit Score
11 Our Approach Multiple Regression Differentiation in explanatory variables Incorporate all trip types A meaningful dependent variable A mappable dependent variable Transit Trip End Density
12 CATS Travel Demand Model Transit Trip Tables
13 CMAP Transportation Analysis Zones
14 Transit Trip End Density Quantiles Transit Trip Ends / Mile CBD Chicago (exclud Suburbs Quantile n = 47 Quantile n = 272 Quantile n = 1,371
15 How to Assess the Demand for Transit in Chicago s Suburbs?
16 How to Account for Potential Demand?
17 The Switch Derive transit demand relationship for city of Chicago ( Chicago Model ) Apply Chicago Model to Suburbs Legend Suburbs Chicago Study Areas Outliers CBD Miles
18 Outliers Removed Suburbs CBD Legend Study Areas Outliers Chicago Miles
19 Explanatory Variables Correlation Correlations Ratio Category Variable Chicago Suburbs Suburbs/Chicago Demographic Total Population % Children (17 and under) % Adults (18 to 64) % Seniors (65 and older) % Workers % Vehicles % Total Households % Households with No Vehicles % Households with Income <$25k % Employment Total Employment % Retail Employment % Non-Retail Employment % Total School Enrollment % Elementary School Enrollment % High School Enrollment % Small College Enrollment % Large College Enrollment % Urban Form Pedestrian Environment Factor (PEF) % Regional Employment Context % 5-Mile Radius Employment Context %
20 TDI Transit Demand Index Chicago Model Suburban Model Coefficient Ratio Variable Coefficient Sig. b Coefficient Sig. Suburban/Chicago Demographic Children (17 and under) *** * 64% Adults (18 to 64) *** *** 58% Seniors (65 and older) *** *** 92% Vehicles *** ** 39% Employment Retail Employment *** *** 32% Non-Retail Employment *** *** 29% Model Adjusted R F Statistic df 6, df 6, 1349 P Value
21 TDI Transit Demand Index What does the TDI mean?
22 TDI Transit Demand Index How do we interpret the TDI?
23 Compare the TSI and the TDI Comparing TSI and TDI in Chicago TSI TDI
24 TDI = TSI / TDI Thresholds Levels TDI Exemplar Bus Weekday Bus Operations Trips Service Span Headways (minutes) (minutes) Low North Riverside - LaGrange Medium 1, Cicero - River Forest 63 1, High 3, Halstead 165 1, TDI Thresholds correspond to transit service levels
25 Application Scaled the TDI to the subzone for suburbs 2010 Census Data 2010 CMAP Employment Data 2012 DMV Data Put the data online in an interactive map
26 Innovations Transit trip end density as a measure Consideration of potential demand Explanatory variable differentiation
27 Limitations Modeled, not actual data used for regression Several social factors not included Only considers walk access to transit Relies on current transit conditions in Chicago as the upper bound
28 Future Steps Incorporate drive / park and ride access Apply at the subzone level Employ in planning studies (e.g. I-90) Thank you for listening We welcome your feedback!
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