Phenology, Networks and Climatic Change

Transcription

1 unesp Phenology, Networks and Climatic Change Patrícia Morellato Laboratório de Fenologia Phenology Laboratory Departamento de Botânica UNESP Univ Estadual Paulista, Rio Claro, São Paulo Brazil

2 PHENOLOGY Phainestai, the ancient Greek word meaning to show or to appear. Modern phenology is the study of the timing of recurring biological events in the animal and plant world, the causes of their timing with regard to abiotic and biotic forces, and the interrelation among phases of the same or different species. Following the definition of Lieth (1974), which goes back to Schnelle (1955). The scientific study of periodic biological phenomena, such as flowering, breeding, and migration, in relation to climatic conditions. The American Heritage Dictionary

3 WHY PHENOLOGY? The timing of seasonal activities of animals and plants is perhaps the simplest process in which to track if changes in ecology of species is responging to climatic changes Starting flower of Horse chestnut (Aesculus hippocastanum) - Wageningen, Neederlands, from 1901 to 2000.

4 Dates of leaf bud burst of the horse-chestnut in Geneva, Smoothing: Gauss low-pass filter with a period of 20 years (extended according to Defila 1996) Phenology and Climatic Change

5 Phenology, Networks and Climatic Change In recent years phenology has changed its image from a traditional data collection to a very important integrative parameter to assess the impact of climate change on ecosystems. Long phenological data series, historical (legacy) data or those originating from the plant-observation networks, have become the basis of several climate change research projects Actually, the observation networks are a priority and phenological observations integrate several national meteorological services and long term ecological projects Plantwatch Canadian Phenology Network Action 725-Establishing a European Phenological Data Platform for Climatological Applications

6 Models Mechanistic models Prognostic phenology Statistical models Measurements Remote sensing Near-surface remote sensing Leaf Area Index Flux measurements Environmental parameters Phenology Events & Phases Observations Phenology Networks Legacy data sets Experimental sites

7 Tropical phenology has not contributed much for climatic change research since the historical or legacy data sets are scarce or absent the lack of a restrictive season and of a distinctive factor driving phenology High within site species diversity make difficult the detection of changes over time.

8 One way to have insights on climate driven phenology shifts on tropical plants is through the comparison of plant species phenology under different environmental conditions.

9 Local Environment interior borda Cannopy openess: Fisheye photos Temperature, relative humidity Tree density, next neighbor, Canopy heigth,

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11 Edge effects include both abiotic and biological changes on environmental conditions that likely affect plant phenological patterns. Since local environmental conditions Abiotic and biological effectsfactors affect plant reproductive phenology, we expect that plant phenological Direct responses biotic to effects edge effects (such as increasing temperature and dryness) may be similar to some extent to shifts induced by Indirect climatic biotic change effects on plant phenology T. Nadia I. Machado

12 Study Site EDGE INTERIOR EAST Cerrado SOUTH

13 Miconia ruibiginosa (Melastomataceae) we monitored the reproductive phenology of Miconia rubiginosa (Melastomataceae) weekly on edges and interiors facing east (high light incidence) and south (lower light incidence) of the cerrado savanna. (Andreu-Ureta 2005, Reys 2008)

14 Miconia rubiginosa (Bonpl.)DC (Melastomataceae), Comparisons of the reproductive phenology of Miconia rubiginosa, a common treelet at the study site, between edges and interiors of a cerrado savanna vegetation in Southeastern Brazil during 2004 reproductive season (after Adreau-Ureta 2005). (a) and (b) Flowers and fruits of M. rubiginosa (photos by M.G.G. Camargo); (c) and (d) Box-plot showing the median and standard deviation of the starting (left) and peak (right) weeks of flowering (c) and fruiting (d) of M. rubiginosa on the edges and interiors (east faced and south faced) of the cerrado savanna; (e) Comparison of temperature sum at the starting date of flowering between forest edges and interiors; Threshold: 5 C; edge-interior temperature difference: 3 C.

15 Effects of cardinal orientation and light on the reproductive phenology of the cerrado savanna tree Xylopia aromatica (Annonaceae)

16 Percentage of species whether local environment variability such as natural edges along the river affect the reproductive phenology of Myrtaceae OPEN FLOWER natural edge forest interior A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M RIPE FRUIT natural edge forest interior A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M months Percentage of Myrtaceae species (n=46) flowering and fruiting on the edge of the Fazenda river, and in the interior of the atlantic rain forest at Parque Estadual da Serra do Mar, Núcleo Picinguaba, Ubatuba, São Paulo State, Brazil. The blue shadow represents the rainy season (October to April) natural edges affect the reproduction of Myrtaceae

17 whether local environment variability such as natural edges along the river affects the reproductive phenology of Myrtaceae Gomidesia blanchetiana Flower visitors 11,8% Effective pollinators 30,1% Flower visitors Effective Pollinators 9,7% 52,7% 58,2% Occasional Pollinators 37,6% Occasional Pollinators EDGE INTERIOR natural edges affect the reproduction of Myrtaceae

18 Models Mechanistic models Prognostic phenology Statistical models Measurements Remote sensing Near-surface remote sensing Leaf Area Index Flux measurements Environmental parameters Phenology Events & Phases Observations Phenology Networks Legacy data sets Experimental sites

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20 Models Mechanistic models Prognostic phenology Statistical models Measurements Remote sensing Near-surface remote sensing Leaf Area Index Flux measurements Environmental parameters Phenology Events & Phases Observations Remote phenology Phenology Networks Legacy data sets Experimental sites

21 e-phenology: The application of new technologies to monitor plant phenology and track climate changes in the tropics (a) use of new technologies of environmental monitoring - remote phenology monitoring systems; (b) creation of a protocol for a Brazilian Network - long term phenology monitoring program; and (c) provide models, methods and algorithms to support management, integration and analysis of remote phenology data.

22 Monitoring local environment

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24 June 28 May 18 May 1 Monitoring phenology with a network of wewbcams Quantify temporal (seasonal, annual) and spatial patterns of variation in phenology Interannual variation Across different ecosystems Correlate to environmental factors A. Richardson website

25 PHENOCAM Tower mounted webcams offer great potential for quantifying patterns of canopy phenology across sites, without the need for intensive field monitoring by an observer.

26 Colour Fraction of ROI_1 0,37 0,36 %_Red %_Green %_Blue 0,35 0,34 0,33 0,32 0,31 0,3 0,29 0, DOY 2008

27 Colour Fraction of ROI_1 0,36 0,355 0,35 0,345 0,34 0, DOY 2008

28 THANKS!

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30 whether Myrtaceae reproductive phenology across sites is constrained by phylogeny and what is the shared influence of phylogeny and ecology on phenology

31 Precipitação (mm) precipitation % of trees % de indivíduos A late fruiting season Flowering is reduces the amount of displaced Lower seed due dispesal, to a fruits seed available germination for and climatic change seedling establishment frugivores months 5 months 4 months J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D Ano 1 Ano 2 Ano 3 Year 1 Year 2 Year Precipitação rainfall Floração flowering Frutificação fruiting

32 Climatic Change and Tropical Phenology Global warming Increase Frequency El Niño droughts? Synergic effects Land use changes - Deforestation -Forest fragmentation Less evapotranspiration Edge effects, fire, logging Less (dry season) rainfall Higher surface mperatures Reduction in the % of species and trees fruiting Forest management Sustainable use of natural products Plant-animal interactions Forest regeneration Genetic diversity