LWMMI. Protecting The Communities We Live In. DIRECTORS. David Benforado Village Trustee Village of Shorewood Hills

Transcription

1 Protecting The Communities We Live In. DIRECTORS David Benforado Village Trustee Village of Shorewood Hills David De Angelis Village Manager Village of Elm Grove Joseph Laux Administrator City of Eagle River Kathleen Morse Clerk/Treasurer City of Rice Lake Mark Rohloff City Manager City of Oshkosh Zachary Vruwink Mayor City of Wisconsin Rapids Jerry Deschane Executive Director League of Wisconsin Municipalities OFFICER Dennis Tweedale Chief Executive Officer League of Wisconsin Municipalities Mutual Insurance 402 Gammon Place Suite 225 Madison, Wisconsin p f dennis@lwmmi.org LWMMI League of Wisconsin Municipalities Mutual Insurance

2

3 WEATHER & CLIMATE: VOLATILITY OR CHANGE IN THE AIR? JOSH DARR LEAD METEOROLOGIST, SENIOR VICE PRESIDENT MAY 11, TH ANNUAL LWMMI POLICYHOLDER CONFERENCE AGENDA VOLATILITY OR CHANGE IN THE AIR? What are the latest scientific views on global climate change? How does the changing climate impact the frequency and severity of North American catastrophe events? Will the future resemble the past? 2 WEATHER VOLATILITY & CLIMATE CHANGE WHY IS IMPORTANT TO STAY IN TUNE WITH LATEST SCIENCE? 2017 World Economic Forum Global Risks Report Increasing acknowledgement by many policy groups that we are witnessing an increase in cat events and extreme weather globally 3

4 GLOBAL TEMPERATURES & JET STREAM IMPACTS GLOBAL TEMPERATURES SINCE 1880 THE GLOBAL WARMING PAUSE SINCE 1998 IS OVER? Source: NASA GISS Baseline temperatures EL NIÑO 2016 RECORD STRONG INTENSITY 6

5 7 COMPARING BACK TO BACK MEGA EL NIÑOS WHERE IS THE WARMING TREND MOST SIGNIFICANT? El Niño events tend to propel natural warming of the globe Most of the mega 2016 El Niño warming was focused in the Arctic Winter temperatures were 8-15 C (15-28 F) warmer than average THE ACCELERATION OF ARCTIC ICE LOSS LINKING CLIMATE CHANGE TO WEATHER VOLATILITY 8 THE JET STREAM MEASURING THE STRENGTH OF TEMPERATURE CONTRAST NASA 9

6 10 WISCONSIN ANNUAL TEMPERATURES WARMING WITH INCREASING VARIABILITY Average Temperature ( F) Wisconsin Average Annual Tempeartures ( F) : warmest March of all time, 17 F above normal 2: winter 2014 second coldest winter on record 3: 3 rd warmest winter and record warm autumn TALE OF TWO WINTERS COMPARING FEBRUARY OF 2015 TO WISCONSIN ANNUAL PRECIPITATION (INCHES) WETTER TREND WITH MORE EXTREME LOCALIZED RAINFALL 45 Wisconsin Annual Precipitation (inches) Average Precipitation (inches)

7 13 PRECIPITATION IS LOCALIZED PARTICULARLY IN THE SUMMER! CURRENT CLIMATE CHANGE UNDERSTANDING STACKING WEATHER PERILS SIDE BY SIDE Is there a way to link a changing climate to any individual catastrophe peril event? Science evolving rapidly in this field Highest confidence in link to precipitation events Least confidence in thunderstorm and winter events 2014 National Academy of Sciences Climate Change: Evidence & Causes 15

8 Iowa State Analytics Symposium HIGHER CONFIDENCE WITH PRECIPITATION WHY? According to NOAA, global temperatures have been trending upward: Annual global temperatures were C above average in 2016, the warmest year on record E. Clapeyron (1834) R. Clausius (1850) Clausius-Clapeyron For every degree C rise in temperature, there is a 6 7.5% increase in water vapor in the atmosphere Can we expect increasingly more extreme rainfall events? EXTREME RAINFALL EVENTS MORE FREQUENT? Extreme One-Day Precipitation Events in the Contiguous 48 States (NOAA) Change in amount of precip falling in heaviest 1% of all daily events (NCDC) 2016 was the year of the flood in the U.S. In total, 19 separate floods swamped the nation last year, the most in one single year since records began in ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS THE MOISTURE FREEWAYS As the atmosphere warms, the ability to transport higher amounts of moisture from the tropics to the mid-latitudes increases 18

9 20 POLAR VORTEX NATURAL DRIVER OF HEMISPHERE WEATHER PATTERNS earth.nullschool.net WINTER TEMPERATURES SINCE 1950 BASED ON POPULATION AND ENERGY DEMAND December to February US Temperatures Trended for Population Demand Cold Winters Increase in volatility since 1980, much higher than seen in the 50s through 70s Warm Winters 21

10 MORE FREQUENT SNOW STORMS SNOWPOCALYPSE, SNOWZILLA, SUPERSTORM BLIZZARD Madison, WI Judah Cohen AER / Jason Furtado University of Oklahoma TORNADOES INCREASING OR DECREASING TREND SINCE 1950S? Many factors for the increasing trend in total tornado reports However, after detrending tornado frequency data: Significant increase in year to year variability starting early 2000s Recent 5-year period well below the detrended average of ~1,370 tornadoes 24

11 FAST START TO 17 SEVERE WEATHER SEASON HIGHEST LEVEL OF STORM ACTIVITY ON RECORD FOR Q1 17 Storm Activity Basis Normal Tornado +50% +60% +105% Winds The first quarter of 2017 recorded all-time high levels of tornado activity, which has maintained record high levels of storm activity during the month of April All three convective storm perils (tornado, hail, wind) are seeing activity 50% to 105% above average through late April Hail EL NIÑO SOUTHERN OSCILLATION ABILITY TO MODULATE ATMOSPHERE AROUND THE GLOBE 26 SPRING SEVERE WEATHER FLUCTUATIONS EL NIÑO VERSUS LA NIÑA La Niña: Mississippi / Ohio River valley El Niño: Texas, Plains, Upper Midwest, Florida and Southeast 27

12 TORNADO CLUSTERING ARE OUTBREAKS MORE FREQUENT? Tippett & Cohen, WHAT ABOUT SEVERE WEATHER TRENDS? CHANGING CHARACTER OF OUTBREAKS No meaningful change in # of severe weather outbreaks per year 1960s & 1970s Outbreak 2010s Outbreak: blue tracks + yellow tracks However, the number of tornadoes that occurs in an outbreak has increased by 50%, and the most severe outbreak days of 30 or more tornadoes has tripled since the 1960s/70s Tippett & Cohen, 2016 Elsner & Jagger, TREND IN CONVECTIVE STORM EVENTS HAIL WITH OBJECTIVE TECHNOLOGY Hail reports show even more historical bias of trend and data issues than tornado Radar detected hail swath data has enabled a more systematic way to detect hail coverage, frequency and severity JLT Re licenses hail swath data for claims alerting and research 30

13 SUMMARY OF OBSERVED/FUTURE TRENDS INCREASED WEATHER VOLATILITY Will the future resemble the recent past? Increasingly frequent and severe northern US Lack of landfalls but warm oceans More frequent large outbreaks Expanding seasonally and geographically Winter temperatures more volatile and bigger snowstorms Population demographics 31 WEATHER & CLIMATE PATTERNS INCREASING VOLATILITY OR FUNDAMENTAL CHANGES? Is the weather getting worse? No! However, it is getting more volatile Why is weather getting more volatile? Warmer Arctic linked to stickier weather patterns, causing longer regimes with embedded extremes Can we say anything about the future? Arctic ice loss expected to continue, no sign of going back to historical normals What can be done to manage the volatility? Resiliency, insurance protection, real time monitoring & catastrophe modeling % Region Under Extreme Conditions Upper Midwest Climate Extremes Index CEI 5 per. Mov. Avg. (CEI) 32 APPENDIX

14 WHERE ARE THE MAJOR HURRICANES? 2005 THE LAST CATEGORY 3+ US LANDFALL Credit: Hall & Hereid years 11 years 1-in % Annual Probability of 11 probability of Cat 3 year drought of US landfall major landfalls 34 RECENT UPTICK IN NUMBER OF LARGE STORMS KATRINA VS. SANDY Hurricane Katrina 2005 Hurricane Sandy 2012 Sandy windfield of tropical storm force winds was largest in recorded history and over three times the size of Hurricane Katrina 8th Weather Annual LWMMI & Climate: Policyholder Volatility Conference: or Change May 2017in the Air? 2016 NYMIR Summer Retreat: West Point, NY July 28,

15 37 SUPPORTING RESILIENCY LOSS MITIGATION & RESILIENCY DEFINED LOSS MITIGATION RESILIENCY ACCEPT TRANSFER MITIGATE AVOID YES RISK NO the act of making a condition or consequence less severe. the power or ability to return to the original form; ability to recover readily from adversity or the like, buoyancy. SUPPORTING RESILIENCY FOUR MAIN FOCUS AREAS NEIGHBORHOODS BUILDING COASTAL RESILIENCY / FLOOD INFRASTRUCTURE 38 SUPPORTING RESILIENCY RESILIENT AMERICA CITIES Source: National Academies of Sciences ~ Engineering ~ Medicine; Office of Special Projects Program on Risk, Resilience, and Extreme Events 39

16 Iowa State Analytics Symposium ARCTIC AMPLIFICATION IS A WOBBLIER JET STREAM CAUSING EXTREME WEATHER? CONTACT Josh Darr, Senior Vice President & Lead Meteorologist Chicago, IL E: josh.darr@jltre.com T: