Eastern Shore Weather and Climate. Bill Sammler Warning Coordination Meteorologist National Weather Service Wakefield, VA

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1 Eastern Shore Weather and Climate Bill Sammler Warning Coordination Meteorologist National Weather Service Wakefield, VA

About The NWS The National Weather Service is: A

Dedicated to Saving Lives and Protecting Property WFO

2 About The NWS The National Weather Service is: A Federal Government Agency Part of the Dept. of Commerce Nat l Oceanic and Atmospheric Admin. (NOAA) is our Parent Agency A 4700 Employee Agency Dedicated to Saving Lives and Protecting Property WFO Wakefield is 1 of 122 local offices nationwide (including Puerto Rico & Guam)

3 NWS Field Office Structure America s Weather Enterprise: Protecting Lives, Livelihoods, and Your Way of Life

4 NWS in the Mid Atlantic

NOAA s National Weather Service Provide climate, water,

and enhance the economy 76 billion observations A Typical

10,000 Violent Thunderstorms Drought Conditions 500 Deaths;

5 NOAA s National Weather Service Provide climate, water, weather forecasts and warnings to protect life and property and enhance the economy 76 billion observations A Typical Year Brings: 6 Hurricanes 1,000 Tornadoes 5,000 Floods 10,000 Violent Thunderstorms Drought Conditions 500 Deaths; 5,000 Injuries; $14 Billion in Losses 1.5 million forecasts 50,000 warnings

6 Weather Forecasting Most only see the Tip of the Iceberg

7 NWS Technology WSR-88D Doppler Radar Advanced Weather Interactive Processing System (AWIPS) AWIPS Data Ingest Automated Surface Observation System (ASOS)

8 Weather Versus Climate Weather is what you get Now: Temperature Moisture Air Pressure Wind Speed/Direction Climate is what happened in the past, and what you might expect in the Future: Based upon recent past Defined by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) 30 year average of daily weather

9 What is the 2nd Biggest Influence on All Weather and Climate? The Oceans!!! Ocean Temperature Changes

10 El Nino and La Nina El Nino and La Nina are Pacific OCEAN Phenomena SSTs Warmer (El Nino) or Colder (La Nina) than Normal El Nino and La Nina Produce Significant Short term Climate/Weather Anomalies The Stronger the Ocean Signal, the Stronger and More Predictable the Atmospheric Response

11 El Nino and La Nina El Nino La Nina

13 El Nino/La Nina Impacts El Nino LA Nina

14 Geography and VA Weather Summer Water Warm/Land Warm/Hot Bay/Ocean Become Moisture Sources Sea Breezes Tstms Develop Along Mtns and Sea Breeze Fronts

15 Sea Breeze Land heats up more quickly than water Cold air begins to push inland creating a breeze off the ocean Rising warm air cools and moves over the ocean to replace cold air that moved inland 15 Copyright 1992, USA TODAY. Reprinted with permission.

16 Sea/Bay Breeze Example Thunderstorms Bay/Ocean Convergence Zone June 29, 2001

17 Geography and VA Weather Fall Water Warm/Land Cooling Bay/Ocean Still Provide Moisture Cold Fronts Can Be Dramatic (Wind) Growing Season and Tornado Season End Later

18 Dates of First/Last Freezes Last Spring Freeze First Fall Freeze

19 Geography and VA Weather Winter Water Cold/Land Cold (Usually) Less Snow Near Coast due to Water Temps Wind Direction Key Mtns Help Hold In Cold Air Inland (Damming) Late Winter Warming Can Be Slowed Near Ocean

20 Cold Air Damming H

21 Nor easters Well organized low pressure intensifies over Gulf Stream and collides with cold air from the north November 2009 Nor Easter (Nor Ida)

22 How many East Coast lows per season? Typically in a winter season (10/15 3/31) we have between coastal winter storm events (Cione, 1993; Sanders, 1980) Most of these storm events occur from December through February with January being the month with the most storm events. Most of these storms do their intensifying from Cape Hatteras northward

23 January 4 th 2018 Blizzard Storm Evolution 7am Wed 7 am Fri

24 AKQ Snow Amounts

25 PHI Snow Amounts

26 Blizzard Definition Sustained wind or frequent gusts greater than or equal to 35 mph Falling and/or blowing snow Frequently reducing visibility to less than 1/4 mile for three hours or more.

27 Accomack Observations

28 Tangier Isl. Observations

29 RPLV2 Observations

30 Unusual Tides Cambridge, MD Ocean City, MD

31 Unusual Tides Wachapreague, VA MLLW

32 Unusual Tides Kiptopeke, VA MLLW

33 Early March Nor Easter/Wind Storm

34 Surface Low Evolution

35 March 1 5 Winds Chesapeake Bay Bridge Tunnel Rappahannock Range Light

36 Geography and VA Weather Spring Water Cold/Land Warming Warming Near Coast can be Slowed Sea Breezes Back Door Fronts Reduced Severe Thunderstorms Near Bay/Ocean (early)

37 Back Door Cold Front April 7, 2001

38 Hurricanes/Tropical Systems

39 Tropical Cyclone Climatology Tropical Cyclone Probabilities By Month

40 All Tropical Systems (passing within 100 miles of Norfolk, VA)

41 Hurricanes (passing within 100 miles of Norfolk, VA)

42 How many hurricanes have tracked into the Bay? How would such an event compare to past disasters?

43 Help observe precipitation in your community!! 43

44 4 diameter plastic rain gauge and 10 minutes a day! Around 7 am Gauge measures to the hundredth of an inch It s fun and easy. We need your help!

45 Volunteers take their readings once a day Observers can easily transmit their observations using mobile devices CoCoRaHS observers help provide a much better post storm analysis picture! Without CoCoRaHS data With CoCoRaHS data

46 7.12, 24-hour amount - May 6, 2008, New Braunfels, Texas All but 0.02 fell between 3:30 and 5:30PM. Station TX-CML-17 Radar image of the isolated storms Your observation can make a difference!

47 How can I join the network? Five easy steps Sign-up on the CoCoRaHS web page: Obtain a 4 plastic rain gauge View the on-line training slide show or attend a training session Set-up the gauge in a good location in your yard Start observing precipitation and report on-line

48 Help observe precipitation in your community!! 48

49 The End!! Any Additional Questions?

Untitled.notebook May 12, Thunderstorms. Moisture is needed to form clouds and precipitation the lifting of air, or uplift, must be very strong

Untitled.notebook May 12, Thunderstorms. Moisture is needed to form clouds and precipitation the lifting of air, or uplift, must be very strong Thunderstorms Moisture is needed to form clouds and precipitation the lifting of air, or uplift, must be very strong cold air and warm air must mix; creating an active circulation system that has both