Climate and Weather Extremes What s the Relationship?

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1 Climate and Weather Extremes What s the Relationship? Deke Arndt Climate Monitoring Branch NOAA s National Climatic Data Center

2 If You Can Only Stay One Minute Climate: it s complex it s changing Extreme Events: There have been a bunch lately In the big picture, we know certain types of extreme events are changing with the climate It takes a lot of homework to assess the relationship between a single event and climate change

3 It s nice to be here INTRODUCTIONS, ETC. 10/6/2011 3

4 Today Focused on the hereand-now of climate, climate variability and climate change. No polar bear pics okay, just one

5 The National Climatic Data Center In Asheville since 1951 Mission: to preserve and provide historical weather and climate data A World Data Center Holdings date to early U.S. 5

6 Climate Monitoring Branch Established 1998 Mission: to monitor and assess the state of the climate CMB provides regular updates of the State of the Climate 18 of my favorite people in the world 6

7 In other words 10/6/2011

8 And a little bit of this 10/6/2011

9 About Me I m a meteorologist by training & education I learned about weather systems, jet streams, storms, tornadoes, etc. Then I got into drought Then I got into local climate Then I got into big-picture climate My meteorology background is only a tiny part of the climate system, but there s an important and obvious connection. 9

10 It s a lot more than temperature CLIMATE: IT S COMPLEX 10/6/

1880-2009 Global Temperature 2010 1990s warmest decade at the time.

11 Global Temperature s warmest decade at the time. Every year of 2000s warmer than 1990s average. 1980s warmest decade at the time. Every year of 1990s warmer than 1980s average.

12 Looking under the hood 12

13 Also a lot more than temperature CLIMATE: IT S CHANGING 10/6/

14 Globally: Temperature over Land 14

15 Globally: Temperature over Oceans 15

16 Global Ocean Heat Content (upper layers) 16

17 Northern Hemisphere Sea Ice 17

18 Stratospheric Temperature 10/6/

19 Back under the hood 19

20 Comparing Modeled Climate to Actual Climate 20

21 What s up with all this crazy weather? EXTREME EVENTS 10/6/

22 July 23, 2010: Vivian, SD New National Record for: Hailstone diameter: 8.0 Hailstone weight: lb. Image courtesy Aberdeen, SD WFO 22

23 Extreme Summer 2011

24 Summer 2011 Average Temperature

25 Summer 2011 Average Precipitation 25

28 Summer/Spring Floods February Snow Cover Extent Heavy Rainfall across Midwest and Northern Plains

29 Spring 2011 Tornado Outbreak 753 Tornadoes most during any month on record For the year-to-date there have been over 549 tornado related fatalities

31 10 Billion Dollar US Climate Events Date Summer Spring/Summer May 22 nd April 25 th -30 th April 14 th -16 th April 8 th -11 th April 4 th -5 th February 2 nd Spring-ongoing Late August Event Upper Midwest Flooding (Missouri and Souris Rivers) Mississippi River Flooding Joplin, Missouri Tornado Southeast Tornadoes Midwest/Southeast Tornadoes Southeast Tornadoes Midwest/Southeast Tornadoes Groundhogs Day Blizzard Southern Plains Drought/Heat/Wildfires Hurricane Irene So Far

32 Are these related? RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN WEATHER AND CLIMATE 10/6/

33 Relationship: weather & climate Literature Review: Stallone et al. (1976) Weather Climate

34 US Climate Extremes summer minimum temperatures 34

35 US Climate Extremes One-Day Precipitation 10/6/

36 How to connect the dots? ATTRIBUTION OF SPECIFIC WEATHER EVENTS 10/6/

37 The Lineup of Suspects It ain t just climate change Climate Change El Nino La Nina Arctic Oscillation Natural Weather 10/6/

38 Remember these slides? 10/6/

39 Determining what Drives a Weather Event: Attribution CSI: Miami Lots of high-tech models Investigators work with data from the scene Investigators systematically eliminate potential suspects In 60 minutes, it s all over Culprit is known without a doubt Case closed CSI: Climate Lots of high-tech models Investigators work with data from the entire world Investigators systematically include potential suspects Takes weeks, months, years Culprit is known to a certain confidence sometimes high, sometimes low Case is usually not closed 10/6/

40 About all those 2011 events Heat waves and heavy rain are consistent with climate change; homework still being done to determine whether climate change had a role in these specific circumstances Relationship between climate and tornadoes still largely unknown; homework and basic research still to be done 10/6/

41 Bottom line For the 2011 events: It would be irresponsible at this time to pin the blame on climate change It would be just as irresponsible to dismiss the role of climate change Real Time attribution is an important emerging area of climate science. 10/6/

42 Data sources and resources BAMS State of the Climate (annual, peer-reviewed) Monthly Climate Reports (monthly, internally reviewed) Climate Monitoring (updated daily-to-monthly-to-annually, depends on what you re after) 10/6/2011

43 Deke Arndt THANK YOU FOR YOUR TIME 43

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