The Potential Role of a Stratospheric Intrusion in the March 7, 2004, High Wind Event
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1 The Potential Role of a Stratospheric Intrusion in the March 7, 2004, High Wind Event Dry downbursts are rather rare in North Carolina, so the high wind event of Sunday, March 7, 2004, merits particular attention. Despite the unlikelihood of an event of this caliber happening again this season, I believe it worthwhile to closely examine its potential driving mechanisms, one of which might be the intrusion of stratospheric air. This could have lead to a rapid intensification of the mid level vorticity and the surface low, leading to more intense convection and downdrafts Below are (clockwise from top left) the 850 mb, 300 mb, mean RH, and surface analyses for 12z/07 followed by those for 00z/08. As has been noted by others, the strong upper jet intensifies over NC during the day (from about 135 to 155 kt). This may have helped enhance convection over northeast NC, in the jet s left exit region. An apparent triple point low shows up over NC at 00z/08.
2 Supporting the stratospheric intrusion theory are the three maps below depicting total ozone for March 6, 7, and 8. Note the greatly increased ozone with the trough passing through the midsection of the country and across NC, which is often indicative of a tropopause fold or stratospheric intrusion. I m not sure how anomalous this particular ozone maximum is, but is certainly sticks out compared to the surrounding air masses, and it rivals the ozone concentration in the polar regions. (This product is typically available in the short term from the GOES sounder.)
3
4 I looked at the water vapor imagery hoping to see some intense drying that might help confirm a stratospheric intrusion, but it wasn t terribly obvious. Here are a few snapshots of water vapor imagery atop 15 min observations, with a blue line roughly depicting the location of the leading edge of the wind gusts. If you can see it, note the thunder at Boone followed by a period of moderate snowfall.
5 March 7, 2245z
6 March 7, 2345z
7 March 8, 0101z
8 March 8, 0215z I was also interested in the fact that the winds greatly intensified after they got past the higher terrain, which made me wonder if the jet-level winds encountered the mountain chain on the west side, got pushed up into the stratosphere, then pulled back down in a wave-like pattern, exacerbating the downburst action. The satellite image below shows that a full blown comma head ended up developing over northeast NC.
9 Further evidence of stratospheric involvement is found in the mesoeta cross sections, taken N-S over central NC (first image) then W-E over the area (following images).
10 Above: 08/00z MesoEta 3h forecast. The image is potential vorticity in PVUs, blue lines are isotachs, pink lines are omega. Research has indicated that PV >1.5 PVU typically is associated with stratospheric origin air. Note the strong omega accompanying the PV nosing down from aloft. Above: 08/00z MesoEta 0h forecast. The image is potential vorticity in PVUs, yellow lines are theta, white lines are ageostrophic circulation. Note the warmer (higher theta) air at mb coming in from the west, along with broad upward motion ahead of the intrusion. Compare this to the same plot 3 hours later:
11 Above: PV has increased in the mid troposphere (although another cross section cut differently may have picked up increased PV farther down). Note the downward motion behind the front (designated by the tight horizontal theta gradient at the surface).
12 Above: 08/00z MesoEta 3h forecast. The image/orange lines are potential vorticity in PVUs, pink lines are omega (vorticity is missing for some reason). Note the strong lift/subsidence couplet. Compare this to 3 hours later:
13 Above: 08/00z MesoEta 6h forecast. The image/orange lines are potential vorticity in PVUs, yellow dashed lines are vorticity, pink lines are omega. The vorticity increased as the PV worked into the lower troposphere This document is intended to be a brief overview of a hypothesis, not a rigorous study. I welcome any and all comments and thoughts on the theories presented here. -Gail Hartfield Forecaster, WFO RAH 3/14/03
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