U NIEWS. The Official Government of Uganda Inter- Ministerial/Agencies Monthly National Integrated Multi-Hazard Early Warning Bulletin

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1 U NIEWS The Official Government of Uganda Inter- Ministerial/Agencies Monthly National Integrated Multi-Hazard Early Warning Bulletin Vol th APRIL to 15th MAY 2017 Issue No. 06 CROP & PASTURE CONDITIONS MAP OF UGANDA Source: Crop Monitor Uganda. This crop conditions map synthesizes information for all crops as of 2nd April Crop conditions ove r the main growing areas are based on a combination of national and regional crop analysts inputs along with remote sensing and rainfall data. Market conditions and Cross border migration of Pastoralists Early Warning by Region: Acholi: The region is largely under watch conditions due to persistent dry conditions through out most of March. Distinctly conditions in Alebtong are more than 25% below normal due to excessive rainfall in March following poor rainfall in February. Central: Conditions across the region are favorable while conditions in Bukomansimbi are exceptional due to consistent and average to above average rainfall since the start of season. East Central: Conditions are favorable across most the region. Elgon: Mixed conditions ranging from watch in Bukwa and Bududa and favorable in the remaining districts. Karamoja: Watch conditions prevail due to below average rainfall during March in all districts. Lango: Favorable conditions reported across most of Lango with Exceptional conditions in Bulisa District. Southwestern: The region is under favorable conditions except for kasese where there was a delay in onset rains. West Nile: Conditions are favorable in Koboko, Nebbi and Adjumani Districts and watch conditions in all other districts in the region.. Western: Bundibugyo, Kyenjojo, Kibaale, Kyegegwa, Kamwenge and Kyankwanzi are under watch conditions. Market Condition Highlights: Buyers scrambling for Ugandan maize, East Africa s main cereal exporter, face price increases in excess of 75 per cent. The recent appearance of armyworm in Uganda could severely impact exports and the supply of cereals in East Africa (UNOCHA, March 2017). Ugandan maize up by 60 per cent, other staples by 25 per cent. Maize prices levelled off in February after the second season harvest although below average increased market supplies. Prices in February were up to 60 per cent higher than a year earlier and at record to nearrecord levels. In the capital, Kampala, prices of important staples, beans and cassava were 25 per cent higher than a year earlier in February During the February to June lean season, very poor households in Moroto and Napak are expected to face food consumption gaps. In these areas, poorly distributed rainfall led to below-average production and very poor households depleted food stocks three months earlier than normal. Many are facing increasing difficulty purchasing sufficient food to meet their basic needs, as food prices are percent above average. (UNOCHA, March 2017). Food Insecurity: In Teso, Busoga, and east-central regions of bimodal Uganda, poor households experienced two consecutive seasons of below-average production. Household food stocks were depleted in January, four months earlier than normal. Many are engaged in casual labor opportunities and are selling additional livestock to fund food purchases, but face atypically high food prices. Poor households are able to minimally meet their basic food needs, but lack income to afford some essential non-food needs and are Stressed. Fall Army Worm (FAW) Crop-eating caterpillars known as fall armyworms are spreading across Uganda, raising fears for the East Africa region. The pests have appeared in 60 districts, attacking up to 40 per cent of the maize in some areas. Authorities warn they could wipe out 11 per cent of the country s annual four-million-metric-tonne maize output. Sugarcane fields have also suffered damage (Please read more information on page 3) (FAO, March 2017). Cross border Migration of pastoralists and Cattle heads: Drought and food insecurity are uprooting people and livestock. More than 30,000 Kenyans and 180,000 heads of cattle from Kenya and South Sudan have migrated to Uganda in search of water and grazing pastures. Ugandan have warned of the risk of confrontations between armed pastoralists and Ugandans in Karamoja (UNOCHA, March 2017). 1

2 U NIEWS The Official Government of Uganda Inter- Ministerial/Agencies Monthly National Integrated Multi-Hazard Early Warning Bulletin Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) - REGIONAL HIGHLIGHTS - CENTRAL 1 MODIS Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) image (left) and time series (right) for Central 1 (1 to 17 February 2017). Highlights! Crop and pasture conditions are above the long-term average (2000 to 2017) for most of Central 1, however, northern parts of Gomba and Sembabule a slightly below average pertaining to a slight drop in rainfall during the 3rd Dekad of March. Damage due to pests and diseases has been widely reported in the region including cassava mosaic virous, cassava bacteria, bean rot, bean fly, and fall army worms in Kalungu. Photos: Casava mosiac in Lwengo, bean fly in Rakai, and army worms in Kalungu District. 2

3 The fall Army Worm (FAW) (Spodoptera frugiperda) U NIEWS The Official Government of Uganda Inter- Ministerial/Agencies Monthly National Integrated Multi-Hazard Early Warning Bulletin FALL ARMY WORM IN UGANDA FAW is part of the order of Lepidoptera and is the larval (see caterpillar) life stage of a fall armyworm moth. It is regarded as a pest and can wreak havoc with crops if left to multiply. Its name is derived from its feeding habits. Native to the Americas, these caterpillars mainly attack maize crops. They will eat everything in an area, and once the food supply is exhausted, the entire "army" will move to the next available food source. The fall armyworm cannot survive freezing temperatures. he armyworm's diet consists mainly of grasses and small-grain crops. An infestation is hard to detect, as the caterpillars migrate to new feeding areas in the cool of the night. When the caterpillars near maturity, they can lay waste to an entire crop in a few days. In early 2017, armyworms infested large swathes of corn crops across Southern Africa, devastating the livelihood of many farmers. It is thought they arrived from the Americas as armyworm eggs in imported produce. Many African countries have agreed to take urgent actions against armyworms (source: Internet) Fall Army Worm Reported Districts (12/04/2017) Fall Army Worm caterpillar Identification: Fall armyworm caterpillar have a characteristic pattern of dark pimples (spots) on their backs, each spot has a short bristle (hair). Although the skin looks rough it is smooth to the touch. Has four dark spots forming a square on the second to last segment. Each of the other body segments also has four spots, but they do not from a square pattern. The head is dark and shows a characteristic upside down Y shaped pale marking on the front. Impacts of Fall Army Worm in Uganda Nearly 100 hosts Fall Army Worm Caterpillar such as maize, wheat, sorghum, millet and rice, cotton, soybeans, beans, sugar beet, oat, peanut, potato, sweet potato, spinach, tomato, sweet peppers, cabbage, tobacco, sugarcane etc. All Agro Ecological Regions of Uganda that comprise the food basket of the country at Moderate to High risk. Physical presence of the pest has been confirmed in more than 60 districts (as of 12/04/2017) It is therefore certain that all mapped potential hot spot areas will be attacked by the pest. There is need to mitigate occurrence in areas not yet attacked and to control the pest where it has been identified. Source: Crop Protection Department, (Ministry of Agriculture, Animal Industry and Fisheries ) Districts Reported First Reported in May-June 2016 Fall Army Worm Risk in Uganda First Reported in May-June First Reported in May-June 2016 Management of FAW infestation in Uganda: Knowledge of participants is improved regarding damage caused by FAW. Knowledge of participants is improved regarding the spread of FAW. Report effective measures for FAW management from the experience of previously invaded countries. Adapt and scale out integrated management practices to prevent spread of FAW. Facilitate ex-ante policy and economic analyses and advocacy to guide. interventions for viable, equitable and gender responsive management of FAW. Strengthen the national capacity for innovation to prevent and control FAW. Enhance communication, information and knowledge management on FAW. 3 Source: FAO, April 2017

4 U NIEWS WEATHER OUTLOOK 1. EASTERN UGANDA: 1. Eastern Lake Victoria and South Eastern : The onset of seasonal rains is expected around late February to early March and the peak is expected around mid- April through early May. The cessation is expected around late May. RAINFALL FORECAST (MARCH TO MAY ) 2. Eastern Central: The onset of seasonal rains over this region is expected around early to mid-march. The peak rains are expected around late April and the cessation around mid-june. 3. North Eastern Region: This region has been experiencing dry conditions reaching drought levels in several areas since December. Irregular light rains are expected in around late March, thereafter a prolonged dry spell is expected until mid- April when steady rains are expected. The peak is expected around early to mid- May, and then moderate relaxation around mid-june. 2. NORTHERN UGANDA: 4. Eastern parts of northern region: The region is currently experiencing dry spells and are expected to continue up to mid/late March when the onset of the seasonal rains is expected. The moderate relaxation of rains is expected around mid-june. 5. Central Northern parts: The region is currently experiencing dry spells which are expected to continue up to mid/late March when the onset of the seasonal rains is expected. The moderate relaxation of rains is expected around mid-june. High chances for ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL High chances for NEAR NOR- MAL RAINFALL High chances for BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL 6. North Western: The region has been experiencing dry conditions since January. The onset of seasonal rainfall is expected around late March to early April. The peak of the rainfall is expected around late April 2017 and moderate relaxation is expected around mid-june. 3. WESTERN UGANDA: 7. South Western: The region has been experiencing dry conditions since December. The onset of seasonal rainfall is expected late February. The peak of the rains is expected around mid-april and the cessation expected around late May to early June. 8. Western Central: The region has been experiencing relatively dry conditions since January. The onset of seasonal rains is expected around mid to late March. The peak is expected around mid to late April. The cessation of the seasonal rains is expected around early to mid-june. RAINFALL PERFOMANCE - (21-31), MARCH LAKE VICTORIA BASIN & CENTRAL AREAS: 9. Central & Western Lake Victoria Basin: The onset of seasonal rains in this region is expected around late February to early March and is expected to be accompanied by strong and destructive winds as well as hailstorms and thereafter, rains are expected to intensify with the peak occurring around mid-april. The cessation is expected around early to mid-june Western parts of Central: The onset of the seasonal rains is expected to get established around early to mid-march. The peak of rains is expected to occur around mid-april. The cessation is expected around early/mid-june. 11. Eastern parts of Central: The onset of seasonal rains is expected around late February to early March. The peak of rains is expected around mid-april. The cessation is expected around early to mid-june. It should be noted that the seasonal rains in this region are expected to be interrupted by occasional dry spells. Highlights of Weather (March 2017) Rainfall: Dry conditions are still persisting in parts of Western, Eastern and Karamoja sub region. Lake Victoria basin and some parts Northern, West Nile, few areas in South Western, Central region, recorded moderate wet conditions The highest amount of rainfall recorded during this period was mm in Kampala station in Kampala followed by mm at Ntusi hydro met station in Sembabule district. Temperature: Country still experienced warm to very hot conditions with average Maximum temperatures ranging from 24.5 to degrees centigrade. The highest observed daily maximum temperatures of C recorded at Wadelai in Nebbi. The lowest of daily minimum temperatures was C observed in Kabale weather station. Water level Changes in Major Lakes: Lake Victoria - During the month of March water level of Lake Victoria indicated variations from 11.94m to 11.82m, there was a steady decrease and then started rising from 16th to 31st March due to some rainfall received within areas of Lake Victoria catchment. Lake Kyoga - Lake Kyoga is recharged by inflows from Lake Victoria through the Victoria Nile; it has been observed that most of stations both in Kyoga and Victoria catchment received rain above 10mm which has led to a steady increase in water levels of the Lake. Water level of the lake ranges from 11.16m to 11.24m. 4

5 MULTI HAZARD EARLY WARNING PROBABILITY MAP (Including incidents Reported) Filled Malaria Contours Cases Reported ,204 1,204-1,593 1,593-2,118 2,118-2,827 2,827-3,783 U NIEWS South Sudan Democratic Republic of Congo Probable Hazards Kenya Tanzania Rwanda Source: OPM, MoH, Multiple Sources, April, 2017 Early Warning for Hydro meteorological Hazards: Landslides: If the rain falls above the average, moderate chance of occurrence of landslides in 1) Bundibugyo, 2) Kabale, 3) Kabarole, 4) Kanungu, 5) Rubirizi, 6) Rukungiri, 7) Bulisa 8) Kisoro 9) and Mt Elgon Area. Floods: If the rain falls above the near normal average, high chance of occurrence of Floods in 1) Adjumani, 3) Nebbi, 3) Kasese, 4) Hoima, 5) Ntoroko districts. Lightning: High chance of occurrence of lightning in Victoria River basin districts - Rakai, Kalungu, Masaka, Mpigi, Wakiso, Mukono, Buikwe, Jinja, Mayuge, Bugiri, Busia, Kalangala, Namiyango, Buvuma Districts. High winds: High chance of occurrence of strong winds in Victoria River basin districts. Hailstorms: High chances of occurring hailstorms in areas where near normal rainfall forecasted Health Hazard Cases: Malaria: Reported cases have remained high in the outbreak districts in Northern Uganda. A total of 140,413 cases of Malaria with 27 deaths were reported. Measles: Fifty two (52) suspected measles cases reported from Amuria, Jinja, Kampala and Buikwe AFP: 2 suspected cases reported from Amudat NNT: 2 Neonatal tetanus suspected cases reported from Mbale and Kibaale 5

6 U NIEWS DISASTER OUTLOOK Early Warning for April - May 2017 Status of the month of March HYDRO-METEREOLOGICAL HAZARD - FLOODS Districts: 1) Adjumani; 3) Nebbi; 3) Kasese; 4) Hoima; 5) Ntoroko; 6) Mt. Elgon Area; 7) Areas around Mt. Rwenzori and 8) Kamapala Capital City HYDRO-METEREOLOGICAL HAZARD - FLOODS Districts: Some parts Jinja road near Kampala (Nakawa Area) affected by road inundation in late March No of People Affected: 0 Dead: 0 Injured: 0 Missing: 0 No of houses damaged (Fully): 0 No of houses damaged (Partially): 0 METEREOLOGICAL HAZARDS Strong winds: Victoria River basin districts and also in Karamoja region Hailstorms: Areas where average rainfall is High or Near normal Rainfall High winds: Any location in the country Lightning: Mostly on Victoria River basin districts METEREOLOGICAL HAZARDS Hailstorms: Storm accompanied by hailstorms, thunder storms and violent winds occurred on 1/3/ in Kole while hailstorms occurred in Mbale also. High winds: 1) Kole; 2) Kapchorwa Thunderstorms: No fatal incidents reported GEOPHYSICAL HAZARDS - LANDSLIDES Districts: 1) Bundibugyo, 2) Kabale, 3) Kabarole, 4) Kanungu, 5) Rubirizi, 6) Rukungiri, 7) Bulisa 8) Kisoro 9) Mt. Elgon Area 10) Areas around Mt. Rwenzori GEOPHYSICAL HAZARDS Landslides: No Incidents Recorded Rock falls: No Incidents Recorded Earthquakes / Tremors: No Incidents Recorded BIOLOGICAL HAZARDS Measles: Jinja; Amuria; Wakiso; Buvuma Typhoid Fever: Lyantonde, Kotido, Kigowa, Kyankwanzi, Bundibugyo, Soroti, Sembabule, Kanungu, Bulisa, Maracha, Moyo, Kalungu, Bukwo, Arua, Nakaseke, Kagadi, Lira, Malaria: Northern Uganda BIOLOGICAL HAZARDS 1) Measles, 2) Malaria, 3) Dysentery, 4) Animal Bites, 5) Typhoid Fever, And 6) Multi-Drug Resistant Tuberculosis cases were recorded. No of People Affected: 146,631 Dead: 38 Source: ESU, MoH, Week 11, 2017 TRANSPORT / TECHNOLOGICAL HAZARDS Transport Accidents: Any Location Fire: Any Location Electrocution: Any Location Drowning: Lakes Victoria and any other Rivers, Lake or Stream TRANSPORT / TECHNOLOGICAL HAZARDS Fatal Road Accidents occurred in: Mbarara; Lamwo; Zombo; Wakiso; Lwengo; Ntungamo; Tororo; Mubende; Buikwe; Busia and Mpigi districts. Deaths: 46 Injured: 23 Source: NECOC/OPM, Uganda Police Force, March 2017 Early Warnings! Health Highlights: Landslides: People living in areas prone to landslides are warned. Floods: People living in areas prone to floods are warned. Hailstorms: After long dry spells, hailstorms are expected in most parts of the country, especially in Mt. Elgon Region. High Winds: After dry spells, sudden changes of wind speed are expected in lake Victoria basin and all great lake districts including Karamoja region. Drought: Dry spells are continuing in Karamoja region Malaria: Cases have remained high in Northern Uganda. Measles: 75 suspected cases of Measles were reported from 25 districts with no measles related death. Typhoid Fever: 1,739 cases of suspected Typhoid fever were reported from 92 districts. 03 Maternal deaths were reported from 3 districts and; 19 Perinatal deaths from 10 districts were reported (High in kasese) 6

7 U NIEWS HUMANITARIAN RESPONSE OUTLOOK ASYLUM SEEKERS & REFUGEES: Top 3 Countries of Arrivals: South Sudan, DR Congo, Burundi As of 31 march 2017 Total Refugee Population: 1,199, 051 Children: 58% : 496,563 Male : 48% : 414, : 40% : 338,566 Female : 52% : 441, : 2% : 20,511 Total District Population : 220,864 Refugee Population: 35.5% New Refugee Settlement yet to open Total District Population: 805,161 Refugee Population: 33.5% Total District Population: 452,412 Refugee Population: 47.6% Total district Population: 918,479 Refugee Population: 10.2% Total District Population: 452,412 Refugee Population: 47.6% Total District Population: 664,057 Refugee Population: 6.8% Total District Population: 664,057 Refugee Population: 6.8% Total District Population: 1,659,251 Refugee Population: 5.4% Total District Population: 342,757 Refugee Population: 7.1% Total District Population: 659,256 Refugee Population: 20.3% Tanzania Rwanda Reception Center Refugee population increasing Refugee population not changed Refugee Settled Districts District Administrative boundary Permanent Wetlands Seasonal Wetlands Inland Waterbodies Disclaimer: This map is not an authority on delineation of administration or wetlands boundaries. Data Source (s): Population projection data of 2016 provided by UBOS; Refugee Data provided by OPM & UNHCR; Nutrition data provided by UNICEF 7

8 U NIEWS NECOC and the Uganda National Integrated Multi Hazard Early Warning System The Office of the Prime Minister s Department for Disaster Preparedness and Management established the National Emergency Coordination and Operations Centre (NECOC) in October 2014, with the support of United Nations Development Programme (UNDP). Uganda's National Emergency Coordination and Operations Centre (NECOC) is a 24 hour, 7- days a week central facility for early warning dissemination and coordination of emergency and crisis response and recovery action. The NECOC is established under the National Policy for Disaster Preparedness and Management of Uganda (NPDPM) with the purpose of contributing towards the functionality and characteristics that make creation of an integrated and multi-sectoral system approach to planning, preparedness and management of disasters that is fundamental to sustained productivity and socio-economic growth of the country. Important Note! U-NIEWS monthly bulletin can be used to understand the conditions of crops and pasture, food insecurity, weather/climate forecast and to determine the anticipated disasters which may occur in the days to come while providing the disaster and humanitarian response status update based on monthly statistics. The information in this bulletin can be used as baseline information for planning processes while detail information may required for respective locations through relevant local and technical agencies for local level planning. For any specific details and information, relevant sources should be contacted using the NECOC website given below. The information provided here is shared by the respective government, UN agencies and non governmental agencies stationed in Uganda. The Uganda National Integrated Early Warning monthly bulletin is issued on 15 th of every month to notify the Ministries, Departments, Authorities, UN Agencies and General public on probable disasters which may occur without warning. For more details: Office of the Prime Minister National Emergency Coordination & Operations Centre (NECOC) 5 th Floor, Postel Building, Clement Hill Road, Plot 65-69, Kampala Web site: To subscribe the U-NIEWS bulletin please send an to news@necoc-opm.go.ug Twitter:@OPMUganda Toll Free Hotline: Publication Partners: OPM, MAAIF, MWE, MoH, UNMA, UPF, UNDP, WHO, WFP, FAO, UNHCR, UNICEF, DFID 8