EXECUTIVE BRIEF: El Niño and Food Security in Southern Africa October 2009

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1 El Niño is a phenomenon which occurs in the Pacific Ocean, but affects climate globally. This document summarizes the known historic impacts of El Niño in southern Africa. The impact of El Niño in the SADC region has varied significantly in its severity, though it generally has a greater impact in the southern half. The current El Niño is classified as weak to moderate. The document explains how the possible climatic outcome might influence agricultural prospects and food security. Understanding El Niño Figure 1: Pacific SST Anomalies October 11-17, 2009 An El Niño can be defined as the appearance of warm sea surface temperature (SST) in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean off the coast of Peru and Ecuador. Specifically, it occurs when a three month average SST anomaly exceeds 0.5 o C. El Niños are recurrent weather phenomena, occurring approximately every four to seven years, and usually lasting between 12 and 18 months. The last four El Niños however, including the current one, have occurred every two to three years. These SST changes can drive major weather and climate fluctuations around the globe, which in turn have major consequences for food security. Therefore, understanding this relationship, and applying this knowledge to improved climate forecasts, is a valuable early warning tool. The 1997/98 El Niño event (4 o C above normal sea surface temperatures over the equatorial Pacific Ocean) was the strongest observed in the last 50 years of accurate data gathering. This warming, coupled with the warming of SSTs over the southwestern Indian Ocean, resulted in extreme weather conditions in the Greater Horn of Africa. Previous strong El Niño events have been less warm, with some events having SST anomalies of 2 o C to 3 o C above normal. Figure 2: The El Niño Regions Source: NOAA Source: NOAA While El Niños are strongly associated with climate anomalies, the impacts vary greatly between events. Important variables include how warm the SST gets, how large an area of the equatorial Pacific heats up, and the timing of the onset of the event. Six of the last nine El Niño events over the last 30 years were weak to moderate, and all produced varying impacts. The most intense El Niños in the last 30 years occurred in 1982/83, 1991/92, and 1997/98. Despite the record strength of the 1997/98 El Niño, the impacts in many areas of southern Africa were not as severe as had been expected. This led forecasters to conclude that factors other than El Niño indices could have a significant bearing on the outcome of the rainfall season, even during an El Niño year. In particular, climate scientists concluded that the deviation from expected rainfall outcomes in 1997/98 was due to several global and regional scale climate systems that were significantly different from previous El Niño events, and may have caused greater than usual precipitation in parts of Southern Africa. From an agricultural perspective, one of the main impacts of El Niño in southern Africa is one or more prolonged dry spells at some time between January and March. Usually, the most affected areas include the southern half of the SADC region, particularly Zimbabwe, southern Mozambique, Swaziland, South Africa, Botswana, and Namibia. These long dry spells usually come when rainfall is most required by crops (particularly cereals) and tend to lead to below normal seasonal FEWS NET Washington 1717 H St NW Washington DC info@fews.net FEWS NET is a USAID-funded activity. The views expressed in this publication do not necessarily reflect the view of the United States Agency for International Development or the United States Government.

2 rainfall totals, thus negatively affecting crop production. In most of the recent El Niño events, at least some areas in the southern half of the region were mildly to severely affected. Current conditions and forecast Forecasts indicate that the current El Niño is likely to be of weak to moderate strength through the remainder of 2009, with SSTs already reaching 0.9 o C anomaly in the Niño 3.4 area of the Pacific Ocean. This threshold was reached during the May June July analysis, but it was in early June that the SSTs in the Niño 3.4 region first recorded a similar anomaly. Figure 3: Model Forecasts of ENSO from October 2009 Current forecasts from nearly all the models predict the warm SSTs will continue through the northern hemisphere spring and have temperatures that peak in November, December, and January. However, there is some disagreement among the models over the strength of the anomalies. Current conditions and forecasts suggest the continuation of a weak to moderate El Niño through the rest of 2009, with a likely El Niño of at least moderate strength in late 2009 to early Source: IRI Possible climatic impacts Eastern and southern Africa experience significant changes in rainfall performance as a result of El Niño. In southern Africa, there is sometimes an increase in precipitation very early on, during October December. However, this slightly elevated moisture typically drops off as the season progresses. Usually, much of the region ends the season with a net deficit, although Tanzania, which can also be considered part of East Africa, has experienced above normal rains in the last three El Niño events, particularly between October and December. It is very rare for El Nino impacts to affect the entire SADC region, but it is possible, with larger areas historically having been more affected during stronger El Niños. In general, the southern half of the region has historically been more affected, with extensive dry spells and generally below normal rains in extensive areas between January and March. Figures 4 and 5 show average rainfall performance in the October December and January March periods during the most recent El Niño events (2002/03, 2004/05, and 2006/07). The 2009 Southern African Regional Climate Outlook Forum (SARCOF) seasonal rainfall forecast, issued in August 2009, and covering October 2009 March 2010 (see Annex) depicts a situation similar to historically observed El Niño impacts, with normal to below normal rains expected in the southern half of the SADC region, and normal to above normal rains expected in many of the northern parts of the region. The SARCOF forecast is prepared by meteorologists from the SADC member states using a number of predictor inputs, including Indian Ocean SSTs. With a moderate El Niño expected this year, it is more likely that some areas will face drier than usual conditions beginning in January Typically, the number of tropical cyclones is reduced in this scenario. Across southern Africa, there is no consistent pattern as to what areas are more likely to be impacted. The SARCOF outlook suggests a greater likelihood of reduced rainfall across South Africa, Swaziland, Lesotho, Botswana, and Namibia, and adjacent portions of Zimbabwe and Mozambique. An increase in rainfall is likely for the area north of the Zambezi river and across northern and central Madagascar. High temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean are likely to increase rainfall along coastal Angola. The Famine Early Warning Systems Network 2

3 Figure 4: Oct-Dec rainfall performance (average of 2002, 2004, and 2006 El Niño years) expressed as percentage of longterm average Percent of avg Figure 5: Jan-Mar rainfall performance (average of 2003, 2005, and 2007 El Niño years) expressed as percentage of longterm average Percent of avg Source: USGS Source: USGS Modeling potential impacts based on similar seasons (analogue years) in the recent past One way to model potential impacts of the current El Niño is to use analogue years. There are some similarities between the current El Niño and the 1972/73 and 1986/87 El Niños. These two seasons can be used to provide scenarios of how the current season may turn out. Modeling the water requirements satisfaction index (WRSI) for the past few El Niño events shows scenarios in which most parts of the southern half of the region had below average crop performance (brown and red areas, Figure 6). We then pick out the two analogue years (1972/73 and 1986/87) to represent potential scenarios based on rainfallrelated crop performance. Yellow colors indicate areas which experienced near normal crop water satisfaction, while white areas experienced either normal or above normal crop water satisfaction. It should be noted, however, that rainfall patterns this season may differ significantly from the two analogue seasons mentioned. Figure 6: End-of-season WRSI anomalies for El Niño years End of season WRSI anomalies for recent moderate to strong El Niño years. Years refer to end of growing season. Source: 2002 FEWSNET El Niño report. Source: IRI Modeling possible impacts on historical El Niño events between 1982 and 2007 The WRSI, which historically has been a good predictor of yields, indicates the extent to which a crop s water requirements are met. The maps in Figure 7 indicate the WRSI at different scenario levels expressed as a percentage of average. Orange and red areas indicate below normal performance. These maps, based on historical events, indicate which areas may likely The Famine Early Warning Systems Network 3

4 be affected under different severities of El Nino impacts, but do not suggest that the entire area shown on the map would be affected during this season under any given scenario. Figure 7. El Niño impact scenarios based only on historical El Niño events between 1982 and (a) Greater El Niño impact scenario (b) Average El Niño impact scenario (c) Lesser El Niño impact scenario The WRSI analysis was done for all nine seasons in which El Niño events occurred between 1981 and 2007 (1982/83, 1986/87, 1987/88, 1991/92, 1994/95, 1997/98, 2002/03, 2004/05, and 2006/07). From this, scenarios were developed indicating the expected WRSI deviation from normal at the 33 rd percentile, the median, and the 67 th percentile of all nine El Niño events. In other words, in one out of three El Niño events, the outcome in any of the areas can be equal to or worse than the indicated Greater El Niño Impacts Scenario (Figure 7a), while in one out of three events, the outcome in any of the areas can be equal to or better than the indicated Less El Niño Impacts Scenario (Figure 7c) The analysis indicated that the impacts of different El Niños over the last few years have varied significantly. In general, the southern half of the region tends to experience increased crop water deficits during El Niño events, particularly areas in Botswana, Namibia, southern and central Mozambique, Zimbabwe, Swaziland, and South Africa. Of these areas, the most affected are around southern/eastern Zimbabwe, southern Mozambique, and northern South Africa. Larger parts of southern Zambia, Lesotho, and southern Malawi also appear to experience crop water deficits in greater impact scenarios (Figure 7a). In contrast, in areas such as central South Africa and Tanzania, above average performance has sometimes been observed during some El Niño events (Figure 7c). Food security implications As indicated, in southern Africa, El Niño is usually associated with mid season prolonged dry spells in some areas and drought in others, leading to either complete crop failure or reduced harvests. Most of the rural households in the region are subsistence farmers who rely heavily on rainfall for crop production and livestock pasture. In years of high rainfall, yields in agricultural production are good, resulting in adequate food stocks, which are easily available and accessible from own production and from local markets. Consequently, food prices tend to be affordable. Income earning opportunities through agricultural labor are usually favorable, making it easy for market dependent households to earn income and access adequate amounts of food. In contrast, in poor rainfall years, staple and cash crop production is reduced along with wage earning opportunities associated with the crop production cycle, and households usually struggle to access food from own production or from local markets. Usually, food prices tend to rise in tandem with increased demand, making staple foods less affordable to the majority poor households. Livestock condition deteriorates due to poor pasture, while livestock prices also decline as many households offload stock (especially the smaller stock) to purchase staple foods. The likely impacts of the current El Niño are likely to be along the same lines as those during the two analogue years (as explained above), when most of the southern half of the region had below average crop performance (brown and red areas, Figure 6). Similarly, looking at the scenario analysis based on averaged historical impacts of El Niño (Figure 7), the same areas are affected, although the intensity varies depending on whether a greater, average, or lesser impact scenario plays out. If we assume an average impact scenario (based on the fact that a weak to moderate El Niño is expected), we The Famine Early Warning Systems Network 4

5 can surmise that the southern half of the region, particularly Botswana, Namibia, southern and central Mozambique, Zimbabwe, Swaziland, and South Africa, including areas around southern/eastern Zimbabwe, southern Mozambique, and northern South Africa, could face below normal harvests this season. This analysis suggests that the current El Niño could result in drier and/or drought conditions in the areas highlighted above, some of which are important maize growing areas. Should this happen, food availability will be very tight across much of the sub region, and many of the chronically vulnerable households will easily tip into food insecure conditions, which will quickly deteriorate as the consumption year progresses. As typically happens in years of poor rainfall and crop production, the region will have a much greater number of rural (and urban) households at risk of transitory food insecurity and requiring some kind of assistance. For instance, during the El Niño of 2006/07, more than six million people were assessed as vulnerable to food insecurity by the various national assessment committees. Many rural and urban poor households will depend earlier than normal on markets, leading to price increases beyond affordability levels, resulting in food access problems. Agricultural activities will be reduced, casual labor opportunities will be scarce, wages will be low, and prices are likely to rise beyond the current levels and the past five year average. Thus, this El Niño event needs to be closely monitored as the season progresses. Appropriate contingency and emergency preparedness plans need to be developed quickly (as planned through the SADC Regional Workshop for Emergency Preparedness Planning held on October 6 8, 2009). Particular attention should be given to monitoring rainfall performance in areas likely to be adversely affected and ensuring that the correct messages are disseminated to crop and livestock producers, and to those in sectors such as water, health, and energy. The Famine Early Warning Systems Network 5

6 ANNEX: Southern Africa Climate Outlook August 2009 Figure 1: SADC October December 2009 Rainfall Forecast Zone I: (Southwestern Angola and extreme northwestern Namibia): Increased chances of above normal to normal rainfall Zone II: (Northern and western parts of Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), most of Angola, bulk of Namibia, most of South Africa, most of Botswana, western Lesotho, western parts Swaziland and southwestern Zimbabwe): Increased chances of normal to below normal rainfall Zone III: South of Lake Victoria (Tanzania): Increased chances of normal to below normal rainfall Zone IV: (Southeastern DRC, most of Zambia, most of Tanzania, most of Mozambique, extreme eastern Angola, extreme northeastern parts of Namibia, northern Botswana, north and southeastern parts of Zimbabwe, western tip of Zimbabwe, extreme eastern parts of South Africa, eastern Lesotho, extreme northern part of Malawi and eastern parts of Swaziland) : Increased chances of normal to above normal rainfall Zone V: (Central and southern Malawi, eastern Zambia and northern Mozambique): Increased chances abovenormal to normal rainfall Zone VI: (Western parts of Madagascar): Increased chances of normal to above normal rainfall Zone VII: (Eastern and southern Madagascar): Increased chances of normal to below normal rainfall Zone VIII: (Mauritius): Increased chances of normal to below normal rainfall Famine Early Warning Systems Network i

7 Figure 2: SADC January March 2010 Rainfall Forecast Zone I: (Extreme western parts of Angola): Increased chances of above normal to normal rainfall Zone II: (Most of Angola, most of central DRC, most of Tanzania, extreme southern Zambia, central and southern Malawi, extreme northern Botswana, northern half of Zimbabwe, central and northwestern parts of Mozambique): Increased chances of normal to above normal rainfall Zone III: (Extreme northern DRC): Increased chances of above normal to normal rainfall Zone IV: (Extreme eastern Angola, southeastern DRC, the bulk of Zambia, northern Malawi, southern Tanzania and northern Mozambique) : Increased chances of above normal to normal rainfall Zone V: (Most of Madagascar): Increased chances of above normal to normal rainfall Zone VI: (Southern Madagascar) : Increased chances of normal to above normal rainfall Zone VII: (Most of Namibia, extreme south Angola, most of Botswana, southern Zimbabwe, southern Mozambique, South Africa, Swaziland and Lesotho) : Increased chances of normal to below normal rainfall Zone VIII: (Mauritius) : Increased chances of normal to above normal rainfall Famine Early Warning Systems Network ii

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