U NIEWS. The Official Government of Uganda Inter- Ministerial/Agencies Monthly National Integrated Multi-Hazard Early Warning Bulletin

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1 The Official Government of Uganda Inter- Ministerial/Agencies Monthly National Integrated Multi-Hazard Early Warning Bulletin Vol th SEPTEMBER to 15th OCTOBER 2017 Issue No. 11 CROP & PASTURE CONDITIONS MAP OF UGANDA Source: Crop Monitor Uganda. This crop conditions map synthesizes information for Maize and Cassava as of 29th August Crop conditions over the main growing areas are based on a combination of national and regional crop analysts inputs along with remote sensing and rainfall data. Early Warnings by Region! Acholi: Conditions are close to average but remain under watch for most districts in the region due to poor rainfall during July except for Kitgum that is above average due to increased ra infall leading to favorable conditions in the district. Central: Favorable conditions are reported throughout with exception of Kalangala and Buvuma were conditions are under watch. Conditions are improving due to continuous rains received throughout August and projected above average rainfall during September to December season (SOND). However, there have also been reports of cassava mosaic disease in the region. East Central & Elgon: Watch conditions across the region are reported and expected to improve due to continued rains throughout August in Elgon, Mixed conditions ranging from poor in Bukwa, Butaleja, Kapchorwa and Tororo to watch for the rest of the districts. Karamoja: Late planting was completed and the region is experiencing watch conditions due to a fall in rainfall pattern between late July and early August. However, pasture conditions are expected to remain above average and improve further due to late rains received at the end of August. Army worms affecting sorghum have also been reported in Napak District. Lango & Teso: Both regions are largely under watch due to below average rainfall early August causing dry conditions. Conditions are however, projected improve due to near normal to above normal rainfall during SOND. Western: Mixed conditions ranging from favorable in Kiriyandongo, Masindi, Hoima and Buliisa to watch for the remainder of the region. Steady near normal rainfall is expected to begin midseptember and will likely lead to favorable crop conditions. Southwestern: The region has had a poor start of season with three-month rainfall less than 50% of average. Crop are off to a poor start and the below normal rainfall projected in part of the region will likely lead to persistent poor conditions mid-season. West Nile: Conditions are favorable in Nebbi, Maracha Moyo and Arua. Watch conditions prevail in the rest of the districts but conditions will likely improve with average to above average harvest. 1

2 REGIONAL HIGHLIGHTS CENTRAL I Fig. 1: MODIS NDVI August 2017 Fig. 2: Rainfall time series for Luwero MODIS Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) Slightly below average to average crop conditions prevailed in the region during August. Start of season rainfall has been above average and crop conditions particularly beans and maize should improve further with projected above average rainfall in the region. Field reports confirm occurrences of cassava mosaic disease. REGIONAL HIGHLIGHTS KARAMOJA Fig. 1: MODIS NDVI August 2017 Fig. 2: Rainfall time series for Kotido MODIS Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) Sorghum attacked by the army worm within the block garden (7 -August 2017). Image source: NUSAF 3: DRF Project. Crop and pasture conditions have continued to improve across the region due consistently above average rainfall in the region. Late planted crops are likely to yield average yield particularly in Kotido district. There is field evidence of army worms affecting sorghum. 2

3 Price (UGX) Price (UGX) Brief update on Market Prices of Selected Crops - (Last week of July 2017) Cooking banana (matoke), dry cassava chips, sorghum, millet, beans, and white maize are important food commodities for Ugandans. The staple food varies by region. Matoke is most important in the central, western, and southwestern regions; millet in the east; and sorghum in the east, north and northeast. Cassava chips, beans, and white maize are also very important for a significant part of population; cassava chips are especially important in eastern (Soroti), northern, and north-western (Arua) Uganda. In Mbarara and Kampala, matoke is most important commodity for all households. Lira and Soroti depend heavily on sorghum and millet and also represent a supply source for Karamoja. Beans are consumed across the country, but monitored in Kampala and Lira: the latter of which is also a production area. Masindi is a production and commercial area for white maize (FEWSNET). In Kanungu, Rukungiri, Rubirizi, Kisoro, and Kabale of southwestern Uganda, first season harvests are poorer than previously expected due to persistent moisture stress. However, food security among poor households is still improving in July due to the availability of some harvests and declining market prices. In Karamoja, staple food prices have declined slightly due to green harvests in southern Karamoja and harvests in bimodal areas. Poor households are relying primarily on the sale of charcoal/firewood to purchase food and. Conflict in South Sudan continues to drive displacement to Uganda, although the arrival rate slowed to roughly 700 people per day in July. Many who arrived before December 2016 cultivated and are now accessing cereals from June/July harvest, but remain heavily reliant on humanitarian assistance to meet their food needs. Food security has improved throughout the country with the harvest and declining staple food prices. Above-average rainfall in July supported early planting of short-cycle crops, which is expected to lead to further improvements in late 2017 (FEWSNET). Prices of some commodities were increased due to increased demand; The price of Simsim sharply drops in Hoima market. Matooke prices drop tremendously in Lira Market. Sharp increase in the price of super rice in Hoima market. Market Price Analysis for selected Crops Regional market Prices of Selected Crops 6, ,000 5, ,000 4, ,000 3, ,000 2, , Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Sep-17 Months 2,000 1,000 0 Cassava Flour Ground Nuts Kaiyso Rice Maize Flour Matooke Millet Flour Nambale Beans Simsim Sorghum Spatial distribution of Market Prices of Cassava Flour August 2017 Market Price (UGX per/kg) Ground Nuts Maize Flour Super Rice Nambale Beans Spatial distribution of Market Prices of Simsim August 2017 Market Price (UGX per/kg) Avg Central Eastern Northern Western 3 (Source: Infotrade Market report, August 28, 2017).

4 SEASONAL FORECAST September December (SOND) South Western (Kisoro, Kabale, Rubanda, Rukiga, Rukungiri, Kanungu, Ntungamo, Ibanda, Bushenyi, Buhweju, Mitooma, Sheema, Rubirizi and Kasese) districts; The peak of rains is expected around late October to mid-november. Rainfall is expected until mid-december. South Western (Eastern parts of Ntungamo, Mbarara, Kiruhura, and Isingiro districts); Following the dry conditions experienced during June and July, the region has receiving outbreaks of light showers and thunderstorms. The peak of rains is expected around late October to mid- November. NEAR NORMAL RAINFALL (75% - 125%) of LTM Central Western (Bundibugyo, Ntoroko, Kabarole, Kyenjojo, Kyegegwa, Kamwenge, Masindi, Buliisa, Hoima, Kakumiro, and Kibaale) districts; Region is currently experiencing isolated showers and thunderstorms which are expected to persist up to around early September when steady rains are expected. However, most areas of Masindi and Hoima have been experiencing substantial amounts of rain since July. It should be noted that the areas around Mt. Rwenzori are expected to receive above normal (enhanced) rainfall during this period. Western parts of Central (Nakasongola, Luwero, Kyankwanzi, Nakaseke Kiboga, Mubende, Kasanda, Sembabule, Lwengo, Lyantonde, Kyotera and Rakai) districts; The peak levels of rainfall are expected around mid- October with a steady decline expected to set in from late November and continue up to early December. Eastern parts of Central (Mukono, Buikwe, Kayunga, and Buvuma) districts; The area is experiencing occasional outbreaks of showers and thunderstorms which are signifying the onset of seasonal rainfall. The seasonal rainfall is expected to reach the peak around mid-october. BELOW NOMAL RAINALL (50% - 75%) of LTM NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL RAIN- FALL (>125%) of LTM Central and Western Lake Victoria Basin (Kalangala, Kampala, Wakiso, Masaka, Mpigi, Butambala, Kalungu, Bukomansimbi, Gomba, and Mityana) districts; The onset of seasonal rains over this region is already established. The rains are expected to reach the peak levels around mid- October. Eastern Lake Victoria Basin: (Jinja, Bugiri, Busia, Mayuge, Namayingo and Tororo) districts; Currently the region is experiencing some showers and thunderstorms that are expected to persist up to early September, when seasonal rains are expected to get established and reach peak levels around mid/late October. South Eastern: (Kamuli, Iganga, Luuka, Namutumba, Buyende, Kaliro, and Butaleja) districts; The rains which are being experienced in this region are expected to continue up to early September when steady seasonal rainfall is expected to get established. The peak of rains is expected around mid/late October, thereafter, a reduction in the rainfall is expected to set in and continue up to the end of the season. NEAR NORMAL RAINFALL (75% - 125%) of LTM RAINFALL PERFORMANCE - (11-21) August Eastern Central: (Pallisa, Budaka, Kibuku, Mbale, Sironko, Manafwa, Bududa, Bulambuli, Kapchorwa, Kween, Bukwo, Bukedea, Kumi, Serere, Ngora, and Soroti) districts; Currently the region is experiencing heavy down powers which have resulted into landslides in some areas. However, the peak of the rainfall is expected to be around early/ mid-october. It should be noted that some areas around the mountain Elgon are expected to receive enhanced rains which might cause negative severe impacts over the area. North Eastern: (Amuria, Katakwi, Moroto, Kotido, Nakapiripirit, Abim, Napak, Amudat, and Kaabong) districts; This region is currently experiencing occasional heavy showers and thunderstorms, which are expected to continue up to around late September. The peak levels are expected around early/mid-october. North Western (Moyo, Yumbe, Adjumani, Arua, Terego, Zombo, Nebbi, Koboko) districts; The region is currently experiencing seasonal rains characterized by heavy showers and thunderstorms which are expected to continue up to around late September/early October. Eastern Northern Part: (Lira, Kitgum, Pader, Lamwo, Agago, Otuke, Pader, Kole, Alebtong, Amolatar, Dokolo and Kaberamaido) districts; The region has been experiencing its seasonal rainfall since June. The rains are expected to continue and reach the peak levels around early/ mid-october. Central Northern Parts : (Gulu, Apac, Nwoya, Amuru, Oyam and Kiryandongo) districts; The rainfall being experienced over this region is expected to continue up to around late November, and thereafter, a reduction in the rainfall punctuated with dry conditions are expected to prevail up to end of the forecast period. Highlights of rainfall performances August 2017 There was an increased rainfall conditions to prevail over northern, eastern, western and a few parts of central and Lake Victoria basin. The rest of the country that includes southern cattle corridor districts of Rakai, Lwengo, Lyantonde and parts of Kiruhura and Sembabule were experienced moderate showers during the period. 4

5 MULTI HAZARD EARLY WARNING PROBABILITY MAP (Including incidents Reported) Malaria Cases Reported Flood occurred at Elegu Town (22/08/2017) due to Unyama river Bacterial Meningitis South Sudan The road linking Adjumani/Amuru to Lamwo district and the refugee settlement in Palabek is cut off at Odiki where river Unyama flash floods swept away the bridge (22/08/2017) Bacterial Meningitis Democratic Republic of Congo Bacterial Meningitis Bacterial Meningitis Landslide occurred in Bulucheke and Bumayoka sub counties on 27/08/2017 Landslide occurred in Kihoko village at Harugale sub county on 24/08/2017 Crimean Congo Haemorrhagic Fever Measles outbreak Landslide occurred in Masaba sub county on 28/08/2017 Measles outbreak Measles outbreak Kenya Potential Disasters Landslides Floods Hailstorm Landslide occurred in Nyundo & Bukimbiri sub counties on 5/09/2017 Tanzania Rwanda Source: NECOC/OPM, MoH, Multiple Sources, August, 2017 Early Warning for Hydro meteorological Hazards: Landslides: If the rain falls as forecasted, moderate chance of occurrence of landslides in western and southern parts of Mr. Elgon region and north eastern parts of Mt. Rwenzori region and steep slopes of Kisoro in south western of Uganda. Floods: If the rain falls as forecasted, moderate chance of occurrence of Floods in 1) Adjumani, 2) Amuru, 3) Nebbi, 4) Zombo, 5) Lamwo, 6) Bulambuli, and low lying districts of Mt. Elgon, Teso and lower regions around Rwenzori mountains. Lightning: High chance of occurrence of lightning in Victoria River basin districts - Rakai, Kalungu, Masaka, Mpigi, Wakiso, Mukono, Buikwe, Jinja, Mayuge, Bugiri, Busia, Kalangala, Namiyango, Buvuma Districts. High winds: High chance of occurrence of strong winds in Victoria River basin districts. Hailstorms: High chances of occurring hailstorms in areas where near normal to above normal rainfall forecasted. Health Hazard Cases Reported: Malaria: 132,689 Reported cases have remained high in northern Uganda. Western, Wet Nile and Kampala also indicates a relatively high number of cases. Bacterial Meningitis: Four (4) suspected cases were reported from three districts; Arua, Lira, Oyam and Yumbe. 5

6 DISASTER EARLY WARNINGS! Early Warning! The second season rainfall is above normal and heavy. It will continue up to December. It is causing massive floods and landslides in the mountainous areas. Those whose homes are on steep slopes please shift to safe homes of relatives, friends, schools, Churches and Mosques. The dangerous rains take 30 to 60 days only. So by 30th October it will begin reducing. While in those places of safety, you may go back to your gardens to collect food during day time when it has not rained. Government and Partners will deliver relief food and non-food commodities soon. The rains will be much lower in November/ December and people will then go back to their homes. Arrangements for the permanent relocation of those at high risk to new safer plots are being worked out but will take a little while. Highlights of the Month! Deaths due to landslides & Floods: 06; (10 Missing) Displaced population: 40,000 (Kisoro; Bududa; Sironko; Bulambuli; Bundibugyo; Rukungiri and Elegu in Amuru Districts) Floods in Teso Region: displaced 50,000 80,000 Plantation crops were damaged due to landslides in Bududa 30 houses are in Danger (Bulucheke and Bumayoka in Bududa District) Immediate Relief assistances required: Shelter, food, cooking utensils, blankets; and household kits, tarpaulins, tents, etc. Early Warnings for September October 2017 Disaster Statistics for the month of August HYDRO-METEREOLOGICAL HAZARD - FLOODS Districts: People living in Adjumani, Amuru, West Nile and lower regions of Mt. Elgon, Teso and Mt. Rwenzori sub regional areas needs to be vigilant. HYDRO-METEREOLOGICAL HAZARD - FLOODS Districts: Amuru district received heavy rain which caused the river Unyama to flood at Elegu town area and the bridge has been swept away by the flood connecting Lamwo district at Okidi. No of People Affected: 2000 Dead: 01 Injured: 00 Missing: 0 No of houses damaged (Fully): 0 No of houses damaged (Partially): 0 METEREOLOGICAL HAZARDS Strong winds: Victoria River basin districts and also in Karamoja region Hailstorms: Areas where average rainfall is High / Near normal Rainfall Lightning: Mostly on Victoria River basin districts. METEREOLOGICAL HAZARDS Heavy Rains: No fatal incidents were reported High winds: No fatal incidents were reported Thunderstorms (Lightning): No fatal incidents were reported. Hailstorms: Hailstorms were reported from Mbarara district. GEOPHYSICAL HAZARDS - LANDSLIDES Districts: Communities living on hills of Mt. Elgon Area; Especially in Mbale, Sironko, Bududa, Manafwa, Bukwo, Kween and Kapchorwa districts needs to be vigilant while people in Bundibugyo in Northern parts of Mt. Rwenzori also needs to be cautious. GEOPHYSICAL HAZARDS Landslides occurred in Bundibugyo district on 24/08/2017 resulting 01 death; Bududa district and 200 families were evacuated on 27/08/2017; and 10 people died in Sironko districts due to landslide occurred on 28/08/2017. Earthquake: Not reported BIOLOGICAL HAZARDS Measles: Kampala & Wakiso Districts needs to be watchful. Typhoid Fever: Moyo, Kotido, Kiboga districts needs to be vigilant. Malaria: Southern & Northern Uganda has highest attack rates, but possible through out the country. BIOLOGICAL HAZARDS Animal bites; Bacterial Meningitis; Dysentery; Malaria; MDR TB; Measles; Severe Acute Respiratory Infection; Typhoid cases were recorded. No of People Affected: 135,551 Dead: 30 Source: 31 week, ESU, MoH, 2017 TRANSPORT / TECHNOLOGICAL HAZARDS Transport Accidents: Any Location Fire: Any Location Electrocution: Any Location Drowning: Lakes Victoria, Rivers, Lakes or Streams TRANSPORT / TECHNOLOGICAL HAZARDS Fatal Road Accidents occurred in: Kisoro; Mbale; Jinja; Wakiso; Ntoroko; Mukono; Masaka; Iganga and Mpigi districts. Deaths: 22 Injured: 27 Affected: 49 Fire outbreaks: Kyankwanzi and Mbale Districts; Drowning incident in Namutumba District. Source: NECOC/OPM, Uganda Police Force, August,

7 REFUGEE STATUS OF UGANDA (01/09/2017) Refugee Population; Refugee and Host Community Ratios by District South Sudan Democratic Republic of Congo Kenya Tanzania Disclaimer: Rwanda Refugee Settled Districts District Administrative Permanent Wetlands Seasonal Wetlands Inland Waterbodies This map is not an authority on delineation of administration or Data Source (s): Population projection data of 2016 provided by UBOS; Refugee Data provided by OPM & UNHCR; Nutrition data provided by UNICEF 7

8 National Emergency Coordination and Operations Centre (NECOC) The Office of the Prime Minister s Department for Disaster Preparedness and Management established the National Emergency Coordination and Operations Centre (NECOC) in October 2014, with the support of United Nations Development Programme (UNDP). Uganda's National Emergency Coordination and Operations Centre (NECOC) is a 24 hour, 7- days a week central facility for early warning dissemination and coordination of emergency and crisis response and recovery action. The NECOC is established under the National Policy for Disaster Preparedness and Management of Uganda (NPDPM) with the purpose of contributing towards the functionality and characteristics that make creation of an integrated and multi-sectoral system approach to planning, preparedness and management of disasters that is fundamental to sustained productivity and socio-economic growth of the country. Important Note! The Uganda National Integrated Multi Hazard Early Warning System (U-NIEWS) U-NIEWS monthly bulletin can be used to understand the conditions of crops and pasture, food insecurity, weather/climate forecast and to determine the anticipated disasters which may occur in the days to come while providing the disaster and humanitarian response status update based on monthly statistics. The information in this bulletin can be used as baseline information for planning processes while detail information may required for respective locations through relevant local and technical agencies for local level planning. For any specific details and information, relevant sources should be contacted using the NECOC website given below. In addition, Sub national level officials are encouraged to re circulate U-NIEWS among the locals including CSO s in their respective districts. The development partners are also encouraged to re circulate this bulletin among their partners, peers and colleagues. The information provided here is shared by the respective government, UN agencies and non governmental agencies stationed in Uganda. The Uganda National Integrated Early Warning monthly bulletin is issued on 15 th of every month to notify the Ministries, Departments, Authorities, UN Agencies and General public on probable disasters which may occur without warning. For more details: Office of the Prime Minister (OPM) National Emergency Coordination and Operations Centre (NECOC) 5th Floor, Postel Building, Clement Hill Road P.O Box 341, Kampala Uganda. Tel No Toll Free Hotline: Toll Free SMS Number: info@necoc-opm.go.ug Web site: Twitter:@OPMUganda To subscribe the U-NIEWS bulletin please send an to news@necoc-opm.go.ug Publication Partners: OPM, MAAIF, MWE, MoH, DWRM, UNMA, UPF, UNDP, WHO, WFP, FAO, UNHCR, UNICEF, DFID, FEWSNET 8