U NIEWS. The Official Government of Uganda Inter- Ministerial/Agencies Monthly National Integrated Multi-Hazard Early Warning Bulletin

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1 U NIEWS The Official Government of Uganda Inter- Ministerial/Agencies Monthly National Integrated Multi-Hazard Early Warning Bulletin Vol th OCTOBER to 15th NOVEMBER 2017 Issue No. 12 CROP & PASTURE CONDITIONS MAP OF UGANDA Source: Crop Monitor Uganda. This crop conditions map synthesizes information for Maize and Cassava as of 29 September Crop conditions over the main growing areas are based on a combination of national and regional crop analysts inputs along with remote sensing and rainfall data. Early Warnings by Region! South western: During August at the start of the second season rainfall and planting season, below normal rainfall was received, but the rainfall trend picked up to above normal in September. Therefore, favourable conditions in districts of Kanungu, Kisoro, Kabale, Rukungiri and Ntungamo; and watch conditions in the districts along in the cattle corridor extending to the Western region. Western: Mixed conditions ranging from favourable in Ntoroko, Kabaale, Bulisa, Bundibugyo, Kiryandongo and Masindi and watch conditions reported in districts of Kasese, Kamwenge, Kibaale and Kyenjojo. However, conditions are expected to improve due to persistent rainfall received throughout the month of September. Central 1: Most districts in the region received exceptional rainfall during the month of September and conditions are favourable with exception of Kalangala district that is under watch conditions. Central 2: Favourable conditions reported across the region with exception of Buvuma district were conditions are poor and way below the average. However, conditions are highly expected to improve further due to above normal rainfall received at end of the month of September. East Central and Elgon Region: Conditions have continued to improve in the region to favourable due to above average rainfall from late August and throughout the month of September. Teso, Lango, Acholi & West Nile: Most districts in the regions received above normal rainfall throughout the month of September with the pattern estimated to continue towards end of November and crop conditions are reported favourable. Karamoja: The region is under its harvesting season, but pasture conditions are favourable due to a high increase in the rainfall pattern throughout the month of September. However Fall Army worm infestation was reported in all districts in the region which greatly affected the crop yield. 1

2 U NIEWS REGIONAL HIGHLIGHTS KARAMOJA Fig. 1: MODIS NDVI September 2017 Fig. 2: Rainfall time series for Napak MODIS Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) Fig. 3- A Block garden showing late planted Sorghum in Moroto district Image source: NUSAF 3: DRF Project Fig. 4- Ripening Sorghum crop in Nakapiripirit district, 2017 Fall Army Worm Threat! The presence of FAW is expected during the second agricultural season and given the wide-spread occurrence of FAW in early 2017, it is likely to impact crops at a similar or greater level than was observed during the first season. There were reports of new cases in Kayunga and Mukono last week. Then latest reports indicated outbreak of Caterpillars in Busoga subregion too. Harvesting have started in most districts and pasture conditions have continued to improve across the region due to consistently above average rainfall in the region. Late planted crops are likely to yield average yield particularly in Kotido district. 2

3 Brief update on Market Prices of Selected Crops - (September 2017) Cooking banana (matoke), dry cassava chips, sorghum, millet, beans, and white maize are important food commodities for Ugandans. The staple food varies by region. Matoke is most important in the central, western, and southwestern regions; millet in the east; and sorghum in the east, north and northeast. Cassava chips, beans, and white maize are also very important for a significant part of population; cassava chips are especially important in eastern (Soroti), northern, and north-western (Arua) Uganda. In Mbarara and Kampala, matoke is most important commodity for all households. Lira and Soroti depend heavily on sorghum and millet and also represent a supply source for Karamoja. Beans are consumed across the country (FEWSNET). Prices of Matooke a bunch were seen to have dropped from the previous month across most markets and traders attribute this to the increased supply of the commodity from major producers like Mbarara and Kabale. Upland rice prices Soya beans prices equally continued to soar because of increased demand for the commodity and yet it was scarce in the market. Livestock prices are expected to follow seasonal trends, but be slightly below average during the outlook period. Staple food prices are expected to slightly decrease through October as first season harvests enter markets, after which prices will increase through November. Despite seasonal fluctuations, prices are likely to remain above average throughout the period. Exports of maize and beans to Kenya, South Sudan, and Rwanda are expected to continue according to seasonal trends, but at volumes below last year and the four-year average due to likely below-average first season production in Uganda. No major livestock disease outbreaks that would necessitate quarantine periods or lead to the closure of livestock markets are anticipated. Spatial distribution of Market Price of Cassava Flour September 2017 Market Price (UGX per/kg) Spatial distribution of Market Price of Simsim September 2017 Market Price (UGX per/kg) Spatial distribution of Market Price of Millet Flour September 2017 Market Price (UGX per/kg) Spatial distribution of Market Price of Maize flour September 2017 Market Price (UGX per/kg) 3 (Source: Multiple Sources September, 2017).

4 SEASONAL FORECAST September December (SOND) South Western (Kisoro, Kabale, Rubanda, Rukiga, Rukungiri, Kanungu, Ntungamo, Ibanda, Bushenyi, Buhweju, Mitooma, Sheema, Rubirizi and Kasese) districts; The peak of rains is expected around late October to mid-november. Rainfall is expected until mid-december. South Western (Eastern parts of Ntungamo, Mbarara, Kiruhura, and Isingiro districts); Following the dry conditions experienced during June and July, the region has receiving outbreaks of light showers and thunderstorms. The peak of rains is expected around late October to mid- November. NEAR NORMAL RAINFALL (75% - 125%) of LTM Central Western (Bundibugyo, Ntoroko, Kabarole, Kyenjojo, Kyegegwa, Kamwenge, Masindi, Buliisa, Hoima, Kakumiro, and Kibaale) districts; Region is currently experiencing isolated showers and thunderstorms which are expected to persist up to around early September when steady rains are expected. However, most areas of Masindi and Hoima have been experiencing substantial amounts of rain since July. It should be noted that the areas around Mt. Rwenzori are expected to receive above normal (enhanced) rainfall during this period. Western parts of Central (Nakasongola, Luwero, Kyankwanzi, Nakaseke Kiboga, Mubende, Kasanda, Sembabule, Lwengo, Lyantonde, Kyotera and Rakai) districts; The peak levels of rainfall are expected around mid- October with a steady decline expected to set in from late November and continue up to early December. Eastern parts of Central (Mukono, Buikwe, Kayunga, and Buvuma) districts; The area is experiencing occasional outbreaks of showers and thunderstorms which are signifying the onset of seasonal rainfall. The seasonal rainfall is expected to reach the peak around mid-october. BELOW NOMAL RAINALL (50% - 75%) of LTM NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL RAIN- FALL (>125%) of LTM Central and Western Lake Victoria Basin (Kalangala, Kampala, Wakiso, Masaka, Mpigi, Butambala, Kalungu, Bukomansimbi, Gomba, and Mityana) districts; The onset of seasonal rains over this region is already established. The rains are expected to reach the peak levels around mid- October. Eastern Lake Victoria Basin: (Jinja, Bugiri, Busia, Mayuge, Namayingo and Tororo) districts; Currently the region is experiencing some showers and thunderstorms that are expected to persist up to early September, when seasonal rains are expected to get established and reach peak levels around mid/late October. NEAR NORMAL RAINFALL (75% - 125%) of LTM RAINFALL PERFORMANCE - (01-10) September South Eastern: (Kamuli, Iganga, Luuka, Namutumba, Buyende, Kaliro, and Butaleja) districts; The rains which are being experienced in this region are expected to continue up to early September when steady seasonal rainfall is expected to get established. The peak of rains is expected around mid/late October, thereafter, a reduction in the rainfall is expected to set in and continue up to the end of the season. Eastern Central: (Pallisa, Budaka, Kibuku, Mbale, Sironko, Manafwa, Bududa, Bulambuli, Kapchorwa, Kween, Bukwo, Bukedea, Kumi, Serere, Ngora, and Soroti) districts; Currently the region is experiencing heavy down powers which have resulted into landslides in some areas. However, the peak of the rainfall is expected to be around early/ mid-october. It should be noted that some areas around the mountain Elgon are expected to receive enhanced rains which might cause negative severe impacts over the area. North Eastern: (Amuria, Katakwi, Moroto, Kotido, Nakapiripirit, Abim, Napak, Amudat, and Kaabong) districts; This region is currently experiencing occasional heavy showers and thunderstorms, which are expected to continue up to around late September. The peak levels are expected around early/mid-october. North Western (Moyo, Yumbe, Adjumani, Arua, Terego, Zombo, Nebbi, Koboko) districts; The region is currently experiencing seasonal rains characterized by heavy showers and thunderstorms which are expected to continue up to around late September/early October. Eastern Northern Part: (Lira, Kitgum, Pader, Lamwo, Agago, Otuke, Pader, Kole, Alebtong, Amolatar, Dokolo and Kaberamaido) districts; The region has been experiencing its seasonal rainfall since June. The rains are expected to continue and reach the peak levels around early/ mid-october. Central Northern Parts : (Gulu, Apac, Nwoya, Amuru, Oyam and Kiryandongo) districts; The rainfall being experienced over this region is expected to continue up to around late November, and thereafter, a reduction in the rainfall punctuated with dry conditions are expected to prevail up to end of the forecast period. Highlights of rainfall performances September 2017 South Western sub region and Southern Cattle corridor received marginal rainfall in most areas which slightly moderated the dry condition that had prevailed for so long. By contrast, the highest amount of rainfall received during period was from Eastern region of 165.2mm at Kiige station and 147.6mm at Kitgum station in Northern part of the country respectively followed by Serere Agro-met weather station in Serere District with a record of 120.2mm of Rainfall. The highest average maximum temperature recorded was 32.20C at Nebbi weather station While the lowest of the average maximum temperature of 20.30C was recorded at Bushenyi in Bushenyi District. Overall, the highest of the daily maximum temperatures observed was 32.20C. The mean minimum temperatures for this period of 12.30C to 28.10C were recorded respectively at Kabale and Masindi weather stations in Kabale. 4

5 MULTI HAZARD EARLY WARNING PROBABILITY MAP (Including incidents Reported) Malaria Cases Reported South Sudan Measles outbreak Lightning strike on 10/10/2017 and 04 school children died Landslide occurred on 09/09/2017;01 died Cholera outbreak Democratic Republic of Congo Heavy rains displaced 150 residents in Kagadi districts Bacterial Meningitis Lightning strike; 01 death at kibuku Lightning strike; 01 death at Bunyangabu district Bacterial Meningitis Cholera outbreak Kenya Rubella outbreak Landslide occurred on 29/09/2017; 13 died Measles outbreak Measles outbreak Typhoid fever Potential Disasters Landslides Floods Lightning Heavy rains Landslide occurred on 09/09/2017;02 died Tanzania Hailstorm Rwanda Source: NECOC/OPM, MoH, Multiple Sources, September, 2017 Early Warning for Hydro meteorological Hazards: Landslides: If the rain falls as forecasted, moderate chance of occurrence of landslides in western and southern parts of Mr. Elgon region and north eastern parts of Mt. Rwenzori region and steep slopes of Kisoro and kabale in south western of Uganda. Floods: If the rain falls as forecasted, moderate chance of occurrence of Floods in 1) Adjumani, 2) Amuru, 3) Nebbi, 4) Zombo, 5) Lamwo, 6) Bulambuli, and low lying districts of Mt. Elgon, Teso and lower regions around Rwenzori mountains. Lightning: High chance of occurrence of lightning in Victoria River basin districts - Rakai, Kalungu, Masaka, Mpigi, Wakiso, Mukono, Buikwe, Jinja, Mayuge, Bugiri, Busia, Kalangala, Namiyango, Buvuma Districts. High winds: High chance of occurrence of strong winds in Victoria River basin districts. Hailstorms: High chances of occurring hailstorms in areas where near normal to above normal rainfall forecasted. Health Hazard Cases Reported: Malaria: 121,424 Reported cases have remained high in northern Uganda. Western, West Nile and Kampala also indicates a relatively high number of cases. Measles outbreaks ongoing in Lwengo district. 5

6 DISASTER EARLY WARNINGS! Early Warning! The second season rainfall is above normal and heavy. It will continue up to December. It is causing massive floods and landslides in the mountainous areas. Those whose homes are on steep slopes please shift to safe homes of relatives, friends, schools, Churches and Mosques. The dangerous rains take 30 to 60 days only. So by 30th October it will begin reducing. While in those places of safety, you may go back to your gardens to collect food during day time when it has not rained. Government and Partners will deliver relief food and non-food commodities soon. The rains will be much lower in November/ December and people will then go back to their homes. Arrangements for the permanent relocation of those at high risk to new safer plots are being worked out but will take a little while. Highlights of the Month! Floods: Occurred in Amuru and Rukungiri Districts; 03 deaths Mudslide: Rubanda District affected by mudslide occurred on 26/09/2017; 13 confirmed dead Strong winds with heavy made the tree in which the tents were fell down destroying a police motor cycles damaging. lightning strike at kafumura primary school and affected the primary four and six classes of which four boys and three girls were unconscious were rushed and admitted in Hoima hospital. Early Warnings for September October 2017 Disaster Statistics for the month of August HYDRO-METEREOLOGICAL HAZARD - FLOODS Districts: People living in Adjumani, Amuru, West Nile and lower regions of Mt. Elgon, Teso and Mt. Rwenzori sub regional areas needs to be vigilant. HYDRO-METEREOLOGICAL HAZARD - FLOODS Districts: Rukungiri and Amuru districts received heavy rain which caused the floods. No of People Affected: Not reported Dead: 03 Injured: 00 No of houses damaged (Fully): 0 No of houses damaged (Partially): 0 METEREOLOGICAL HAZARDS Strong winds: Victoria River basin districts and also in Karamoja region Hailstorms: Areas where average rainfall is High / Near normal Rainfall Lightning: Mostly on Victoria River basin districts. METEREOLOGICAL HAZARDS Heavy Rains: Reported in western Uganda High winds: Reported in western Uganda Thunderstorms (Lightning): Fatal incidents were reported from Nebbi & Hoima Hailstorms: Hailstorms were reported from Bushenyi district. GEOPHYSICAL HAZARDS - LANDSLIDES Districts: Communities living on hills of Mt. Elgon Area; Especially in Mbale, Sironko, Bududa, Manafwa, Bukwo, Kween and Kapchorwa districts needs to be vigilant while people in Bundibugyo in Northern parts of Mt. Rwenzori and Kisoro Kabale areas also needs to be cautious. GEOPHYSICAL HAZARDS Landslides occurred in kabale district on 09/09/2017 and 29/09/2017 resulting 15 death; Mudslides occurred on Moroto district on 11/09/2017; and 01 person. Earthquake: Not reported BIOLOGICAL HAZARDS Measles: Kampala & Wakiso Districts needs to be watchful. Typhoid Fever: Moyo, Kotido, Kiboga districts needs to be vigilant. Malaria: Northern Uganda has highest attack rates, but possible through out the country. BIOLOGICAL HAZARDS Animal bites; Bacterial Meningitis; Dysentery; Malaria; MDR TB; Measles; Severe Acute Respiratory Infection; Typhoid cases were recorded. No of People Affected: 124,090 Dead: 77 Source: 36 week, ESU, MoH, 2017 TRANSPORT / TECHNOLOGICAL HAZARDS Transport Accidents: Any Location Fire: Any Location Electrocution: Any Location Drowning: Lakes Victoria, Rivers, Lakes or Streams TRANSPORT / TECHNOLOGICAL HAZARDS Fatal Road Accidents occurred in: Mbarara, Luwero, Bugiri, Moroto, Kapchorwa, Mpigi, Kiboga, Mubende, and Jinja districts. Deaths: 26 Injured: 33 Affected: 59 Fire outbreaks: Kampala and Wakiso Districts; Source: NECOC/OPM, Uganda Police Force, September,

7 U NIEWS REFUGEE STATUS OF UGANDA (01/09/2017) Refugee Population; Refugee and Host Community Ratios by District South Sudan Democratic Republic of Congo Kenya Tanzania Rwanda Due to ongoing conflict in South Sudan, it is expected that the number of South Sudanese refugees in Uganda will continue to increase throughout the outlook period. WFP plans to distribute a full ration to refugees who arrived after July However, WFP requires financial aids to provide the assistance through the end of the year and despite new pledges in June, funding from pledges has not been received to guarantee the continuation of assistance at planned levels. 7

8 National Emergency Coordination and Operations Centre (NECOC) The Office of the Prime Minister s Department for Disaster Preparedness and Management established the National Emergency Coordination and Operations Centre (NECOC) in October 2014, with the support of United Nations Development Programme (UNDP). Uganda's National Emergency Coordination and Operations Centre (NECOC) is a 24 hour, 7- days a week central facility for early warning dissemination and coordination of emergency and crisis response and recovery action. The NECOC is established under the National Policy for Disaster Preparedness and Management of Uganda (NPDPM) with the purpose of contributing towards the functionality and characteristics that make creation of an integrated and multi-sectoral system approach to planning, preparedness and management of disasters that is fundamental to sustained productivity and socio-economic growth of the country. Important Note! The Uganda National Integrated Multi Hazard Early Warning System (U-NIEWS) U-NIEWS monthly bulletin can be used to understand the conditions of crops and pasture, food insecurity, weather/climate forecast and to determine the anticipated disasters which may occur in the days to come while providing the disaster and humanitarian response status update based on monthly statistics. The information in this bulletin can be used as baseline information for planning processes while detail information may required for respective locations through relevant local and technical agencies for local level planning. For any specific details and information, relevant sources should be contacted using the NECOC website given below. In addition, Sub national level officials are encouraged to re circulate U-NIEWS among the locals including CSO s in their respective districts. The development partners are also encouraged to re circulate this bulletin among their partners, peers and colleagues. The information provided here is shared by the respective government, UN agencies and non governmental agencies stationed in Uganda. The Uganda National Integrated Early Warning monthly bulletin is issued on 15 th of every month to notify the Ministries, Departments, Authorities, UN Agencies and General public on probable disasters which may occur without warning. For more details: Office of the Prime Minister (OPM) National Emergency Coordination and Operations Centre (NECOC) 5th Floor, Postel Building, Clement Hill Road P.O Box 341, Kampala Uganda. Tel No Toll Free Hotline: Toll Free SMS Number: info@necoc-opm.go.ug Web site: Twitter:@OPMUganda To subscribe the U-NIEWS bulletin please send an to news@necoc-opm.go.ug Publication Partners: OPM, MAAIF, MWE, MoH, DWRM, UNMA, UPF, UNDP, WHO, WFP, FAO, UNHCR, UNICEF, DFID, FEWSNET 8