The Future of Remote Sensing

Transcription

1 The Future of Remote Sensing BELSPO - 30 Years of Remote Sensing Research 17 September 2015, Brussels Research and Michael Berger Earth Observation Sector Directorate Climate Action and Resource Efficiency I4 Directorate General Research & EUROPEAN COMMISSION Michael.Berger1@ec.europa.eu

2 What is the Future of Remote Sensing?

3 What is the Future of Remote Sensing? 42

4 What is the Future of Remote Sensing? 1: 0: Very bright Not so bright

5 Pigeon photography by Julius Neubronner, 1907 Vega VV05, carrying Sentinel-2A, Kourou Spaceport 23 June 2015

6 Pigeon photography by Julius Neubronner, 1907 Vega VV05, carrying Sentinel-2A, Kourou Spaceport 23 June 2015 Remote Sensing Infancy: driven by reconnaissance Technology development further supported through the cold war and space race ( ) ESA established in 1975 as a merger of ELDO and ESRO (ESA's precursor established in 1964) End of cold war supported the development of the civilian use of spaceborne EO systems (e.g Rockot launcher derived from SS-19 Stiletto intercontinental missile), but at this time mainly driven by technology. Although more driven by technology, scientists were very innovative of making use of the data which led to ESA's Living Planet Programme with the Earth Explorers (science driven) and Earth Watch (application driven) mission components Further milestones were CEOS establishment (1984), Baveno Manifesto - GMES manifesto (1998), the oxygen (open & operational) strategy by ESA (2003), GEO establishment (2005), Copernicus regulation (2014),.. Which led Europe to the most comprehensive EO programme globally which currently is in transition from implementation to operation.

7 Pigeon photography by Julius Neubronner, 1907 Vega VV05, carrying Sentinel-2A, Kourou Spaceport 23 June 2015 Remote Sensing Infancy: driven by reconnaissance Technology development further supported through the cold war and space race ( ) ESA established in 1975 as a merger of ELDO and ESRO (ESA's precursor established in 1964) RS1.0: End of cold war supported the development of the civilian use of spaceborne EO systems (e.g Rockot RS2.0: launcher derived + from technology SS-19 Stiletto driven intercontinental missile), but at this time mainly driven by technology. RS3.0: driven by reconnaissance Although more driven by technology, scientists were very innovative of making use of the data which led to ESA's Living Planet Programme with the Earth Explorers (science driven) and Earth Watch (application driven) mission components RS4.0:.+ science driven + driven by operational services Further milestones were CEOS establishment (1984), Baveno Manifesto - GMES manifesto (1998), the oxygen (open & operational) strategy by ESA (2003), GEO establishment (2005), Copernicus regulation (2014),.. Which led Europe to the most comprehensive EO programme globally which currently is in transition from implementation to operation.

8 From tubes to PetaFLOPS ExaFLOPS (2020). ZetaFLOPS (2030) From Pixel Counting to Earth System Modelling, improved Knowledge and operational Services

9 Launch ENVISAT mission: 10 years Iceland 2010 Arctic 2007 Ozone hole 2005 L Aquila 2009 First images Japan 2011 Global air pollution Prestige tanker oil slick B-15A iceberg Bam earthquake Hurricane Katrina Chlorophyll concentration CO2 map Serving 4000 scientific projects and many operational users Mar 02 Sep 04 Envisat Symposium Salzburg (A) Apr 07 Envisat Symposium Montreux (CH) Living Planet Symposium Bergen (N) Jun 10 and many workshops dedicated to specific Envisat user communities Mar 12

10 The number of near-polar orbiting, land imaging civilian satellites operational as of 1st August 1972 to 2013 Years in which sovereign states launched one or more near-polar orbiting, land imaging civilian satellites. Bold denotes launch of at least one SAR sensor. Horizontal dotted lines demark the end of each decade. Figures from: Alan S. Belward, Jon O. Skøien: ISPRS Journal of Photogrammetry and Remote Sensing, Volume 103, 2015, ,

11 7075 satellite launches between 4 Oct 57 and 31 Dec 2013, out of these 879 contributing to Earth science There are 3921 satellites orbiting Earth, 1167 are active (UNOOSA July,2014) Concerning Land observation, some 33 sovereign states have launched dedicated missions (total still operational by end of 2013) Failure dropped from 60 to 20% and life cycle has almost tripled. (some 3.3. yrs in 1970 to 8.6 yrs and still increasing) The number of near-polar orbiting, land imaging civilian satellites operational as of 1st August 1972 to 2013 Years in which sovereign states launched one or more near-polar orbiting, land imaging civilian satellites. Bold denotes launch of at least one SAR sensor. Horizontal dotted lines demark the end of each decade. Average satellite launch for land imaging systems increased from 2 to about 12 per year (total about 120 launches per year) Spatial resolution from 80m to 1m multispectral and less than 1m for panchromatic HR. SAR from 25m in 1970 to 1m post 2007 Figures from: Alan S. Belward, Jon O. Skøien: ISPRS Journal of Photogrammetry and Remote Sensing, Volume 103, 2015, ,

12 New EO missions under implementation in Europe: Earth Explorers: ADM Aeolus (2017), EarthCare (2018), Biomass (2020), (FLEX or CarbonSat) (2023), new call likely end of 2015 Copernicus: S3A (Oct 2015), S1B (2016), S2B (2016), S3B (2017), S5P (2016), S4A (MTG-S1) (2021), S4B (MTG-S2) (2029 ), S5A Metop-SG-A (2021), S5B (Metop-SG-B)(2027), S6A (2020), S6B (2025) National missions: EnMAP(2018), MERLIN (2020), VENµs (2016),

13 New EO missions under implementation in Europe: Earth Explorers: ADM Aeolus (2017), EarthCare (2018), Biomass (2020), (FLEX or CarbonSat) (2023), new call likely CEOS end database of 2015 features details of 268 EO satellite missions with 785 instruments (409 distinct instruments, some being repeats), which are Copernicus: S3A (Oct 2015), S1B (2016), S2B (2016), S3B currently (2017), operating S5P (2016), or planned S4A (MTG-S1) for launch (2021), in the S4B (MTG-S2) (2029 ), S5A Metop-SG-A (2021), S5B next 15 years - funded and operated by around (Metop-SG-B)(2027), S6A (2020), S6B (2025) 30 space agencies worldwide. National missions: EnMAP(2018), MERLIN (2020), VENµs (2016),

14 2.25m.and many more ideas 12 m 2m Interferometer core Active optical bench (laser emission & interferometry) Accelerometers Angular/lateral metrology Angular metrology Passive optical bench (laser retro-reflection) Retroreflector Satellite 1 Beam Steering Mechanism Satellite 2

15 Why are Nations doing this? National pride and identity Strategic value (diplomacy, control over infrastructures) Space as an acknowledged tool for Growth and Technology advancements -> Affordability, Reliability & Longevity Education and training new generations of scientists and engineers Continuity of programmes often taken as granted but this is risky.

16 Challenges ahead: Political acknowledgement of GEO as an EU approach Integrating Copernicus into GEOSS and reinforcing their in-situ components Promoting GEOSS and Copernicus as a source of dataset for H2020 and as a system for sharing data and information resulting from H2020 activities Coordinating respective European mechanisms & programmes for streamlining national and pan-european EO research & innovation (e.g. ERA coordination), overcoming fragmentation in programmes and data standards and license policies Easing data access and processing capability for EO Big Data Fostering Copernicus service evolution/new services and uptake Consulting and mobilising the EU EO private sector through fora and incubator programmes and to develop a EU strategy to transform GEO / Copernicus into a lever to support EU industry

17 Looking into the future of R&I actions in the GEOSS context HORIZON Development of a European Hub of the GEOSS information system (2016) 2. Incubating new services and products for the citizens integrating Earth Observation 3. Integrated Arctic Observing System (2016) 4. Towards an Integrated Mediterranean Sea Observing System (2016) 5. Novel in-situ observation systems 6. Earth Observation services for the monitoring of agricultural production in Africa 7. Coordination of citizen observatories initiatives

18 Looking into the future of R&I actions in the GEOSS context HORIZON Development of a European Hub of the GEOSS information system (2016) 2. Incubating new services and products for the citizens integrating Earth Observation 3. Integrated Arctic Observing System (2016) 4. Towards an Integrated Mediterranean Sea Observing System (2016) 5. Novel in-situ observation systems 6. Earth Observation services for the monitoring of agricultural production in Africa 7. Coordination of citizen observatories initiatives

19 What is the Future of Remote Sensing?

20 What is the Future of Remote Sensing? Short to mid term 1: Very bright

21 What is the Future of Remote Sensing? Short to mid term 1: Very bright Long term 1: 0: Very bright Not so bright

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