A Survey of Hydrological and Ecological Effects of Landfalling Atmospheric Rivers
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1 A Survey of Hydrological and Ecological Effects of Landfalling Atmospheric Rivers Mike Dettinger, USGS/CW3E David Lavers, ECMWF
2 Impacts of ARs Atmospheric determinants of the impactfulness of ARs Landscape determinants of impactfulness Regional characteristics of AR impacts
3 Key AR impacts Floods Global survey Droughts California droughts example Landslides & debris flows Oakley et al will be talking about this Glacial & ice-cap mass balances Gorodetskaya & Mattingly have spoken about this Snow abundance & rain-on-snow Guan, GRL 2016 Huning et al will be talking about this Avalanches Hatchett et al will be talking about this Erosion & geomorphic fx Groundwater recharge Mojave example Significant water resources Western US example Strong winds Small will be talking about this Estuarine variability X2 example Vegetation variations & wildfire Albano et al will be talking about this Fisheries FIRO has been discussed several times Oceanic fx?
4 Floods (examples from the literature) New Zealand: Kingston et al Australia/Tasmania: Stuart, this conf Hawaii (Kauai): Neiman et al California: e.g., Ralph et al Washington: Neiman et al Tennessee: Moore et al Iowa: Nayak et al Alaska: Jacobs, this conference Canada, Brit Columbia/Alberta/Eastern Maritimes: Assorted, this conf Mexico: Bosart et al, this conf, in press Chile: Viale, 2014 Greenland: Neff et al. 2014; Mattingly, this conf Western Europe: Lavers & Villarini 2013 UK: Lavers et al Iberia: Trigo et al Italy: Malguzzi et al. 2006; Lang et al Greece: Mita et al Southern California, 2014 Southern England, 2014
5 ARs & West Coast floods Russian River floods, Non AR AR fed (34/39) ARs hit Central California ~8 days per year ALL 7 major floods of Russian River since 1997 have been atmospheric rivers (Ralph et al, GRL, 2006) On a longer time scale, among all 39 declared floods of the Russian River from % were caused by ARs (Dettinger & Ingram, SciAm, 2013) PE Storm AR Storm } Other On lee side of Sierra Nevada, 74% of major floods of Truckee River have been caused by ARs In Washington, 46 of 48 (96%!) annual peak daily flows have been associated with ARs (Neiman et al, JHM, 2011)
6 CONTRIBUTIONS FROM ARs TO PRECIPITATION & STREAMFLOW Water Resources Contributions to Total Streamflows Percentages of Winter Precipitation that comes from Atmospheric Rivers Contributions to Winter Precip Chile: ARs contribute 15-35% of precipitation (Viale) Rutz et al., MWR, 2014; Dettinger et al., Water, 2011
7 Central Valley levee breaks, Snowmelt ARs 104/128 breaks During the times of year when ARs make California landfalls, they are THE mechanism behind historical levee breaks. Florsheim & Dettinger, chapter, 2015; Florsheim & Dettinger, GRL, 2007
8 Mojave Desert aquifer recharge Most of the time, the Mojave River channel is dry. Stamos et al. USGS WRIR , 2001 but when it flows, it recharges. Flows > 1000 cfs for > 3 days Others Atmospheric rivers 4 of 7 such episodes Flows > 5000 cfs for > 1 day Atmospheric rivers 4 of 6 such episodes
9 AR as US West Coast drought makers & drought breakers Dettinger, JHM 2013; Dettinger, SFEWS 2016
10 mospheric Rivers & Estuarine Health: X2 Distance from Golden Gate Bridge to where near-bottom salinity drops to 2 %o San Francisco
11 Atmospheric Rivers & X2: Distance from Golden Gate Bridge to where near-bottom salinity drops to 2 %o 4/23 other mechanisms 19/23 caused by AR storms 83% of largest (daily-scale, >0.85 km) X2 retreats freshening the estuary, WY , have been due to atmospheric-river storms R**2 = 49% R**2 = 38% R**2 = 31%
12 Ecologically Valuable Floodplain Inundations, 55 yrs of Yolo Bypass inundations Number of inundations Number of AR-initiated inundations Percentages of inundations from ARs Florsheim & Dettinger, chapter, 2015
13 Warm AR storms in a snowy setting Of 38 days with Tmin > 0ºC & Precipitation > 5 cm at Tahoe City, WY % AR Not AR All such days AR days among them Dettinger et al, Tahoe-book chapter, in prep
14 98-yr of daily Streamflows of the Merced River, Sierra Nevada, CA Snow melt AR TOP 10 FLOODS Atmospheric River Spring Snowmelt 7 / 10 top floods have been due to atmospheric rivers
15 Lake Tahoe: ARs & sediment transport Upper Truckee River at South Lake Tahoe, % of all sediments from UTR into Lake Tahoe were delivered on 0.6% (36) of the days. Total sediment transports by 36 high-load vs other days, and by AR high-load vs other high-load days Daily Suspended Sediment Loads from Upper Truckee River Other High Loads AR storms 6% 12% All other days (5727 days) Dettinger et al, Tahoe-book chapter, in prep
16 WINTER ARs & SUMMER TAHOE CLARITY R**2 = 67% R**2 = 58% of clarity variance explained Immediate impact of AR is a clarity increase; at annual level (including following summer), more ARs means less clarity. Dettinger et al, Tahoe-book chapter, in prep
17 What determines intensity, storm/seaonal totals, distribution & impacts of AR precipitation? Number of landfalls per year Vapor transport onshore & cross-topography Wind speed & vapor content in low level jet Dynamic, convective & orographic uplift Duration of AR passage overhead Mesoscale frontal waves Altitude of AR core Sierra Nevada spillover (Backes et al, JHM, 2015) Temperature of AR Snowline altitude Closeness to saturation How much uplift before precipitation begins Stability of atmosphere How readily is AR lifted by orography Presence/absence of resulting barrier jet
18 Land conditions that determine AR impacts Topographic slopes and orientations Neiman example Rain shadowing Anderson example Elevation and temperatures Antecedent soil moisture or snow cover conditions Ralph example Bedrock and soils Land uses Drainage patterns and geometries Vegetation types and densities
19 Conclusions ARs frequently lead to floods for GOOD and ill. Its time for us to start paying more attention to impacts & benefits from ARs besides (in addition) to the damaging impacts of floods. April Waters 19
20 AR impacts Floods Droughts Landslides & debris flows Glacial & ice-cap mass balances Snow abundance & rain-on-snow Avalanches Erosion & geomorphic fx Groundwater recharge Water resources Strong winds Estuarine variability Vegetation variations & wildfire Fisheries Oceanic fx?
21 Why do landfalling ARs yield heavy rain? moist neutral Composite sounding located 500 km off CA coast in precold-frontal LowLevel Jet (atmospheric river) LL Jet directed toward coast and situated at 1-2 km MSL, wind speeds 15 to 20 m/s low-level jet Most (75%) of pre-coldfrontal along-river moisture flux is below 2.5 km MSL 75% of flux Vapor transport ~ Mississippis Moist neutral stratification below 2.8 km MSL, hence no resistance to orographic lifting Overlapping set of conditions very conducive to orographic rain enhancement in coastal mtns & Sierra Nevada Ralph et al. (2004, 2005) MWR
22 ROLE OF ELEVATION OF AR CORE Distance from Sierra Nv crest, in km Backes et al, JHM, 2015
23 Things get complicated around mountains High-resolution rain shadowing Mountain Barrier Jets Ralph et al., MWR, 2003 Neiman et al., MWR, 2013
24 Orientations of Catchments (relative to AR approach) Matters to Precipitation Intensities & Locations Neiman et al, JHM 2011
25 Key AR impacts Floods Global survey Droughts California droughts example Landslides & debris flows Oakley et al will be talking about this Glacial & ice-cap mass balances Gorodetskaya & Mattingly have spoken about this Snow abundance & rain-on-snow Guan example Huning et al will be talking about this Avalanches Hatchett et al will be talking about this Erosion & geomorphic fx Groundwater recharge Mojave example Significant water resources Western US example Strong winds Small will be talking about this Estuarine variability X2 example Vegetation variations & wildfire Albano et al will be talking about this Fisheries FIRO has been discussed several times Oceanic fx?
26 Sudden changes in Lake Tahoe clarity Largest Measurement-to-Measurement Changes in Lake Clarity, WY (>10 m!) Of 15 occasions with largest msmt-msmt CLARITY INCREASES, ALL 15 were preceded by stormy conditions, and 73% ARs 11/15 were preceded by ARs. Dettinger et al, Tahoe-book chapter, in prep
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