Hazard assessment and risk mitigation for tourists at Hekla volcano, South Iceland. Jorge Montalvo Magnús Tumi Guðmundsson
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1 Hazard assessment and risk mitigation for tourists at Hekla volcano, South Iceland Jorge Montalvo Magnús Tumi Guðmundsson Volcandpark. Olot, Cataluña 25th of May
2 Overview Introduction Classification of Main Hazards Results Discussion (Suggestions) Conclusions 2
3 Introduction Tourism represents ~5% of Iceland s GDP (Icelandic Tourist Board, 2009) Nature attracts tourism Hike, camp, visit geologically active areas Rented cars and buses Increasing number of hikers in Hekla in recent years 3
4 Hekla Volcano Photo J. Montalvo Photo J. Montalvo 4
5 Hekla Map by Þorvaldur Þorðarson 5
6 Hekla Volcano Map by Þorvaldur Þorðarson 6
7 Explosive Vs. Effusive Activity Photo: Gísli Óskarsson Photo: Sæmundur Þórðarson 7
8 Classification of Hazards Main and Secondary hazards Three Main hazards Swiftness and level of danger much higher than for secondary hazards Main Haz: Tephra and ballistic fallout, PDC and Lavas Secondary, e.g., Fluorosis 8
9 Tephra and Ballistic fallout Ballistic production on Eyjafjallajökull eruption. May 2010 Photo: J. Montalvo Tephra fall on Eyjafjallajökull eruption. May 2010 Photo: J. Montalvo
10 Pyroclastic Density Currents (PDC) Photos: Hans Jürgen Beug Pyroclastic density current at Hekla eruption
11 Lava flows Lava flows from Hekla eruptions in 1970 and Photo: Gísli Óskarsson 11
12 Definition of Level of Danger Low Medium High Very High Little possibility of death or serious injuries Considerable possibilities of serious injuries or death Serious injuries or death very likely if people are directly hit or happen to be in the way Likelihood of Death is high if people are directly hit or exposed to phenomenon 12
13 Classification of Hazards Type of Hazard Occurrence Level of Danger Onset after eruption Speed Duration Reach Tephra fallout Always Medium - High min depending on (1, 2) distance from the source. Transported ~ 45 (2, 9) 70 km/h. ~ 2 hours (2) Depending on wind conditions, it could reach ~330 km in 5 hours (3) Ballistic fallout Always High Very High Few minutes after the onset of eruption. (5) ~ 5 km depending on size (10) Pyroclastic density currents Very Often - Always Very High Few minutes after the onset of >80 (7) 360 (1) eruption. (5) km/h. A few seconds. (1) ~ 3 4 Km. (5) Lava flows Very Often - Always High ~ 3 min 60 min.. (5, 9) Depending on the Several days or (2, 5) slope. ~ 1 10 even months. km/h. (6) Max. extent of historical lavas: ~10 km from the source. Lahars (or Jökulhlaups) Often Very often. (4) Medium High Few minutes after the start of the eruption. (1, 4) ~ 20 min after the onset of eruption. (4) ~ 25 km/h. (8, 9) Depending on volume of water but it has been documented ~ h. (4) Approx. 60 km in the first hours. But confined to channels (4) Earthquakes / Seismic Tremor Always None - Low Precursors, between min. before eruption. Throughout the eruption Lightning Rare Low - Medium Associated with production of tephra min (1) Gas poisoning Often Low to humans High to animals. (10) First hours after the eruption, Depending on Depending on weather related to tephra fallout. (10) weather conditions conditions. and precipitation. 13
14 Results Classification of hazards. Mainly three hazards are considered to be most relevant for Hekla. Tephra and ballistic fallout. Pyroclastic Density Currents (PDC). Lava flows. Hazard maps. 14
15 Results (cont.) Phenomena can occur within 5-10 min from onset of eruption Maps based on the assumption that Hekla will follow its pattern Explosive phase followed by effusive phase 15
16 Main Hazards at Hekla 16
17 Suggestions (Mitigation). Increase awareness with the relevant information available. Education. Increase preventive measures (e.g., signs and pamphlets). Other methods. 17
18 Where to put the signs? 18
19 Conclusions Danger to hikers Definition of main hazards (5-10 min after onset) Tephra fallout, max reach 10 km Pyroclastic Density currents, reach 5 km Lava flows, reach 2 km Long term predictions unlikely for Hekla Increase awareness by handling information Information placed around visited areas 19
20 Thank you! Volcandpark Olot, Catalunya 25 May 2012
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Jeopardy. Final Jeopardy $100 $100 $100 $100 $100 $200 $200 $200 $200 $200 $300 $300 $300 $300 $400 $400 $400 $500 $500 $500 $500 $500
Jeopardy Earthquakes Volcanoes Tsunamis Wildfires Landslides/ Droughts $100 $100 $100 $100 $100 $200 $200 $200 $200 $200 $300 $300 $300 $300 $300 $400 $400 $400 $400 $400 $500 $500 $500 $500 $500 Final
Study Guide: Unit 1. 1) Take careful notes in class during the lectures as well as the information given in the slides presented during class
Geology 101 Study Guide: Unit 1 The purpose of this study guide is to help you prepare for the first unit exam by focusing your studying and providing example essay questions. You will not be asked to