The PREVIEW project: general objectives and an overview of the landslides platform
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1 The PREVIEW project: general objectives and an overview of the landslides platform Risk Mitigation for Earthquakes and Landslides Giacomo Falorni Earth Sciences Dept. University of Firenze July 2007 Hotel Villa Carlotta, Belgirate (VB) - Italy Priority Global Change and Ecosystems / European Integrated Project GOCE-CT
2 PREVIEW risk.com Nicola Casagli, Gaia Righini, Giacomo Falorni Earth Sciences Department, University of Firenze, Italy Maria Grazia Ciminelli (Telespazio S.p.A, Roma, Italy) Geophysical Cluster leader Jean Louis Ducuing (Infoterra France) PREVIEW coordinator July 2007 Belgirate, Italy 2
3 PREVIEW General Info FP6 project - PRIORITY 4, Aeronautics & Space, Space 2004 European Global Monitoring for Environment and Security (GMES) 58 partners from 13 countries Universities, research institutes, large firms, national, regional and local administrations Start date: 1 April 2005 Duration: 45 months July 2007 Belgirate, Italy 3
4 PREVIEW objectives Technical objective: To develop, at the European scale, new or enhanced information services for risk management in support of European Civil Protection Units and local or regional authorities, making the best use of the most advanced research and technology outcomes in Earth Observation July 2007 Belgirate, Italy 4
5 PREVIEW objectives How? By enhancing risk mitigation through: better prevention and preparedness better anticipation more accurate assessment at various temporal and spatial scales of situations at risk improved timely dissemination of meaningful and adapted early warning information, perfectly fitted to the societal needs and to the concepts of operations of rescue forces July 2007 Belgirate, Italy 5
6 PREVIEW hazards PREVIEW multi-risk management regards the following types of hazards: Floods (alluvial plain floods, flash floods, etc.) Windstorms Forest fires (summer and winter fires) Earthquakes & volcanic eruptions Landslides Man-made (industrial) July 2007 Belgirate, Italy 6
7 PREVIEW test sites Landslides, July 2007 Belgirate, Italy 7
8 Hazards are grouped in clusters: PREVIEW structure Atmospheric (windstorms, floods, fires) Geophysical (earthquakes, volcanoes, landslides) Man-made Geophysical cluster contains 2 platforms: Landslides Earthquakes and volcanoes Landslides Platform contains 2 services: Service 1: Monitoring of slow-moving landslides Service 2: Prediction of shallow rapid slope movements July 2007 Belgirate, Italy 8
9 Objective: Monitor slow moving landslides using: remote sensing interferometry Landslides Platform Service 1 integration of diverse information sources several existent pre-operational functions To obtain landslide risk assessment and hazard zonation July 2007 Belgirate, Italy 9
10 Service 1 test sites COUNTRY TARGETED AREA END USERS Italy Valfurva, Lombardia Region, Italian Civil Protection (Dipartimento Protezione Civile) General Administration of Local Police, Prevention and Civil Protection of Lombardia ARPA Lombardia Sweden Vagnhärad, Trosa area Swedish Rescue Services Agency Trosa municipality July 2007 Belgirate, Italy 10
11 Service 1 test sites Valfurva, Lombardia, Italy Vagnharad, Sweden July 2007 Belgirate, Italy 11
12 Test site Lombardia Ruinon Landslide July 2007 Belgirate, Italy 12
13 Ruinon landslide Monitoring of Ruinon landslide with ground-based radar (LiSA) July 2007 Belgirate, Italy 13
14 Differential SAR interferometry Ruinon landslide July 2007 Belgirate, Italy 14
15 Ruinon landslide Differential SAR interferometry for Lombardia site July 2007 Belgirate, Italy 15
16 Lombardia DIFSAR Landslide inventory updating with DIFSAR A B C July 2007 Belgirate, Italy 16
17 Service 1 - WebGIS July 2007 Belgirate, Italy 17
18 PREVIEW Landslides platform Service 2: Prediction of shallow rapid slope movements July 2007 Belgirate, Italy 18
19 Service 2 Objectives Integrate meteo-hydrological modelling, remote sensing, geophysical methods and GIS techniques to develop a prototype service for: Identifying areas with shallow landslide potential Providing early warning of potential shallow landslides to local administrations based on meteo-hydrological modelling Use as a tool for rapid activation of civil protection resources July 2007 Belgirate, Italy 19
20 Service 2 test site Armea basin, Liguria, Italy July 2007 Belgirate, Italy 20
21 Armea test site In 2000, intense rainstorm triggered hundreds of shallow rapid landslides July 2007 Belgirate, Italy 21
22 Meteo-hydrological modelling Service 2 data flow and processing WebGIS CIMA TPZ FTP UNIFI Mapserver Slope stability modelling July 2007 Belgirate, Italy 22
23 Performed by CIMA (Centro Interuniversitario di Monitoraggio Ambientale Univ. Genova): Meteo-hydrological modelling Ground-based radar provides the precipitation field at a scale of a few km in space and tens of minutes in time Nowcasting of rainfall provides maps indicating the exceedance probability of given precipitation intensity-duration thresholds for the following hours July 2007 Belgirate, Italy 23
24 Meteo-hydrological modelling RADAR SCAN RESOLUTION: 1x1 km 10 min RADAR PRODUCT RESOLUTION (cumulated rainfall corrected on the basis of rain-gauge measurements): 1x1 km 1 hr July 2007 Belgirate, Italy 24
25 Meteo-hydrological modelling Radar rainfall July 2007 Belgirate, Italy 25
26 Meteo-hydrological modelling Radar rainfall corrected with rain gauges July 2007 Belgirate, Italy 26
27 Used as a monitoring tool Meteo-hydrological modelling Rainfall nowcasting Similar basis as the downscaling model Langevin eq (simplified convection-diffusion equation) is integrated forward randomizing the phases in the frequency domain An ensemble of nowcasts is provided together with the probability of exceedence of fixed rainfall thresholds The lead time spans from 30-min to 2 hrs (quite optimistic) July 2007 Belgirate, Italy 27
28 Meteo-hydrological modelling Rainfall nowcasting Radar history Nowcast members at T0+2 hrs July 2007 Belgirate, Italy 28
29 Meteo-hydrological modelling Soil saturation July 2007 Belgirate, Italy 29
30 Meteo-hydrological modelling Soil saturation maps July 2007 Belgirate, Italy 30
31 Slope stability other input data DEM Distributed geotechnical parameters (angle of internal friction, cohesion) Distributed soil thickness July 2007 Belgirate, Italy 31
32 Measure soil depth Measure soil permeability Collect soil samples for lab tests (geotechnical parameters) Slope stability Fieldwork July 2007 Belgirate, Italy 32
33 Slope stability Soil depth modelling In the infinite slope model the factor of safety is very sensitive to soil depth Soil depth is difficult to determine accurately at basin scale Simplified models for estimating soil depth generally produce poor results July 2007 Belgirate, Italy 33
34 Slope stability Soil depth modelling Common basin-scale soil depth models: Constant thickness Proportional to elevation Proportional to slope July 2007 Belgirate, Italy 34
35 We propose a model that takes into account: Slope stability Soil depth modelling Topography Mean abs. Model error (cm) Slope angle Slope curvature Elevation 78 Geology Soil catena Slope 103 GIST July 2007 Belgirate, Italy
36 Slope Stability computation Soil saturation FS = ( 2 cos β ) c / γz + r u sin β cos β tanφ Soil thickness Soil parameters GIS Distributed FS
37 19-20 July 2007 Belgirate, Italy Slope stability Results
38 Slope stability validation Compare FS results to actual event The 2000 event in Armea basin was extensively mapped and studied but Radar rainfall data was not yet available! Need new event July 2007 Belgirate, Italy
39 Slope stability validation 18 December 2006 New event! July 2007 Belgirate, Italy
40 Couple infinite slope approach with infiltration model Introduce uncertainty: Service 2 Future development Use rainfall nowcasting to produce multiple FS maps and analyze statistically Use probability distribution of geotechnical parameters Addsecondtest site July 2007 Belgirate, Italy
41 Island of Ischia, Italy Service 2 Second test site
42 April 2006 Shallow landslides caused 4 deaths Service 2 Second test site
43 Where, after a hard day of work in the field The thermal baths of Ischia are waiting!
44 Contacts Thank you For more info: Nicola Casagli Gaia Righini Giacomo Falorni July 2007 Belgirate, Italy
45 Meteo-hydrological modelling NTT LAMI FORECAST 12 GMT 20 GMT 71 GMT 84 GMT NCT DOWNSCALED RAINFALL 12 GMT 20 GMT 30 GMT 39 GMT 63 GMT 72 GMT RADAR+GAUGES EVERY 3HRS C-DRiFt LANDSLIDES STABILITY MODEL 41 hrs LEAD TIME NOWCASTING 30 GMT31 GMT 72 GMT EVERY HR (lead-time 2 hrs) C-DRiFt 84 GMT 12 GMT 84 GMT Landslides Training Session 28 Feb - 1/2 March 2007 Firenze Italy
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