Paul Waddell Professor, City and Regional Planning University of California, Berkeley Director, Urban Analy;cs Lab President, UrbanSim Inc.

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1 2017 Philomathia Forum Urban Data Science and Simula9on For Metropolitan Sustainability Paul Waddell Professor, City and Regional Planning University of California, Berkeley Director, Urban Analy;cs Lab President, UrbanSim Inc.

2 Sustainability Research Framework 2 2

3 Urban Data Science Toolkit Open Source Python Data Science Stack Urban Data Science Toolkit: UrbanSim A pladorm for simula;ng urban real estate markets and their interac;on with transporta;on. ORCA A generalized framework for data processing and orchestra;on to support UrbanSim, Ac;vitySim, and other types of modeling. Ac9vitySim A pladorm for simula;ng Ac;vity-Based Travel. Pandana A fast network accessibility engine for compu;ng accessibility metrics. Spandex Spa;al Analysis and Data Extrac;on. Synthpop A Popula;on Synthesizer. ChoiceModels A library of flexible discrete choice models, including Mul;nomial Logit, Nested Logit, Mixed Logit, and Latent Class Models. UrbanAccess A library to obtain, clean, merge and analyze GTFS Transit Networks and OSM networks for pedestrian and transit accessibility. 3

4 Open Data for Sustainability Planning Open Street Map UrbanCanvas 4

5 Open Source Tools for Sustainability Planning Vizici9es A framework for 3D geospa;al visualiza;on in the browser. 5

6 Open Source Tools for Sustainability Planning Pandana A fast network accessibility engine for compu;ng accessibility metrics. 6

7 Open Source Tools for Planning UrbanAccess Quickly compute transit and pedestrian networks for accessibility analyses. Travel 9me integrated network Job accessibility 7

8 Harnessing Urban Data Streams: Scraping Rental Lis9ngs Na9onally 8

9 Integra9ng the Tools to Develop and Evaluate Sustainability Plans UrbanSim: A simula;on pladorm for suppor;ng planning and analysis of urban development, incorpora;ng the interac;ons between land use, transporta;on, the economy, and the environment. 9 9

10 UrbanSim Micro Macro 10 10

11 UrbanSim Simula;ng individual choices such as household loca;on, for en;re popula;ons, at an agent level

12 UrbanSim SeaUle, WA UrbanSim in opera9onal use Eugene-Springfield, OR San Francisco, CA Salt Lake City, UT Denver, CO Colorado Springs, CO Detroit, MI Phoenix, AZ Albuquerque, NM San Diego, CA Tucson, AZ Houston, TX Paris, FR Honolulu, HI San Antonio, TX 12 12

13 Reconciling Data From Many Sources Parcels Buildings Households Persons Jobs

14 UrbanSim Applica9on First regional plan to integrate transportation, land use, and housing (Sustainable Communities Strategy) Initiated by California Senate Bill 375

15 UrbanSim Applica9on

16 UrbanSim Applica9on: Plan Bay Area Policy Inputs to Model System Transportation Transit investments (Rail, Bus) Roadway investments (GP, HOV, HOT, Bike, Pedestrian) Pricing (Tolls, Land Use Regulations City comprehensive Plans Transit Oriented Development, Urban Villages & Centers Subsidies, Impact Fees Urban Growth Boundaries of Areas

17 UrbanSim Applica9on: Plan Bay Area Outputs from Model System Land and Development Housing units by type, density, price (affordability) Non-residen9al buildings by type, density, price Acreage in agricultural land, forest, open space Demographics: households by income, size, life cycle Economics: employment by sector and building type Transportation Accessibility, Mode Shares, Vehicle Miles Traveled, Conges9on Delay Environment Greenhouse Gas Emissions Pollu9on

18 UrbanSim Applica9on: Plan Bay Area ECONOMY ECONOMIC VITALITY Increase gross regional product TRANSPORTATION SYSTEM EFFECTIVENESS Increase non-auto mode share Reduce VMT per capita Maintain the transportation system ENVIRONMENT CLIMATE PROTECTION OPEN SPACE AND AGRICULTURAL PRESERVATION Reduce per-capita greenhouse gas emissions from cars and light-duty trucks Direct all non-agricultural development within the urban footprint HEALTHY AND SAFE COMMUNITIES Reduce premature deaths from exposure to particulate emissions Reduce injuries and fatalities from collisions Increase average daily time spent walking or biking EQUITY ADEQUATE HOUSING House all of the region s projected housing growth EQUITABLE ACCESS Decrease housing and transportation costs as a share of low-income household budgets

19 UrbanSim Applica9on: Plan Bay Area

20 UrbanSim Applica9on: Plan Bay Area

21 UrbanSim Cloud Pla\orm, UrbanSim Inc.

22 Representation of Space Parcel - Level Model Census Block Level Model Zone - Level Model The most detailed and powerful model application of UrbanSim using individual buildings and parcels. The census block models are pre-built from public data for most metropolitan areas in the United States. Users are required to upload zonal data whereby they will be able to build and calibrate an UrbanSim model. Users of the block or zone versions can convert to the parcel version easily when uploading local parcel data. This is the fastest way to begin using UrbanSim. For metropolitan areas outside the United States, this is the fastest way to build an UrbanSim model. Coming Soon Available Now Coming Soon

23 UrbanSim Cloud Platform: UrbanSim block model data

24 UrbanSim Cloud Platform: Making the methodology accessible Pre-built UrbanSim model with lower entry requirements! Comes with supporting tools needed for an operational forecast! MPO jurisdictions with pre-built census block level UrbanSim models!

25 Ques9ons? Further reading: Samuel D. Blanchard and Paul Waddell "UrbanAccess: A Generalized Methodology for Measuring Regional Accessibility with an Integrated Pedestrian and Transit Network." Transporta)on Research Record: Journal of the Transporta)on Research Board. No Paul Waddell "UrbanSim: Modeling Urban Development for Land Use, Transporta;on and Environmental Planning." Journal of the American Planning Associa)on. Vol. 68 No. 3, pp Paul Waddell "Integrated Land Use and Transporta;on Planning and Modeling: Addressing Challenges in Research and Prac;ce." Transport Reviews. Vol. 31, No. 2, pp