Tools for Analyzing NIBRS Data and Tips for Merging NIBRS Data with Publicly Available Datasets

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1 Tools for Analyzing NIBRS Data and Tips for Merging NIBRS Data with Publicly Available Datasets Scott Came Executive Director Becki Goggins Director, Law and Policy Program 2016 Association of State Uniform Crime Reporting Programs (ASUCRP) Conference September 29, 2016

2 SEARCH, The National Consortium for Justice Information and Statistics Nonprofit organization established in 1969 Governed by a Membership Group of governor appointees from the 50 States, the District of Columbia, and the territories Policy statements are available at:

3 SEARCH s NCS-X Work Technical readiness assessments Required for Bureau of Justice Statistics funding Train-the-trainer model NIBRS Technical Assistance NIBRS Toolkit

4 Tableau Software Tableau Public is available as a free download Installations available for Mac or PC Visualizations (or vizzes ) are hosted on cloud at Users can links to galleries to others to view Full version is available at no cost to students and teachers

5 Seattle Dashboard

6 Seattle Maps

7 2015 Seattle Offenses by Month

8 Burglaries by Month

9 Bicycle Thefts by Month

10 Burglaries by Day of Week

11 Bicycle Thefts by Day of Week

12 Bicycle Thefts v. Other Thefts By Day of Week

13 Burglaries by Time of Day

14 Bicycle Thefts by Time of Day

15 Assaults and Disturbance Offenses By Time of Day

16 Combining NIBRS with Other Data Vast Amounts of Open Data Freely Available Tools Data Science Skills Greater value from NIBRS!

17 Case Study 1: Crime and Weather Current Directions in Psychological Science (2001) Hot temperatures increase aggression by directly increasing feelings of hostility and indirectly increasing aggressive thoughts. 2 degrees Fahrenheit (Avg Annual Temp) 9 murders+assaults per 100,000 population but what can we learn about this from NIBRS data?

18 Case Study 1: Approach Our Goal: Heat Hypothesis Test Crime Rate Crime Rate Data Temperature Data Get lots of observations Join them together Visualization Regression analysis Temperature

19 A Brief Aside: Tools Working with diverse, often messy, datasets requires powerful tools and skills You can only go so far with Excel If is not on your radar it should be (whether you are an IT person or not) Open Source Freely Available Awesome graphics/charting GIS Stats O Reilly Data Science Survey (2016)

20 Case Study 1: Crime Data NIBRS provides us with: Daily crime counts* Rich (fine-grained) classification of crimes Agency identifier (can be roughly mapped to county) Use your own curated NIBRS data ICPSR *When actually entered daily by the LEAs

21 Case Study 1: Crime Data Generally good to start with an initial visualization: Annual NIBRS offenses per 10,000 residents,

22 Case Study 1: Temperature Data Global Historical Climatology Network GHCN Temperature Precipitation Weather Conditions More 54,000+ weather stations globally Excellent US coverage back to the early 1900s Daily observations Station file gives lat/long of each stations

23 Case Study 1: Join Data Aggregate NIBRS data by day and county (we chose urban counties in the two states) Select GHCN stations with regular daily obs Find GHCN station closest to the centroid of each county (US Census provides centroids) Data quality: furthest station was 51 miles Aggregate temperature data for each county s station Merge NIBRS and weather data together

24 Case Study 1: Visualization

25 Case Study 1: Regression Ohio Washington

26 Case Study 2: Bars and Crime Question: Is a higher density of bars/taverns in an area correlated with crime rate? Not much research on this Survey paper by Pacific Institute for Research and Evaluation

27 Case Study 2: Data NIBRS data again, aggregated by county ( ) What about bar/tavern density??

28 Case Study 2: OpenStreetMap Crowd-sourced GIS repository Streets Geo-political boundaries Places Amenities like restaurants, parks, pharmacies, gas stations and bars/taverns Provides an application programming interface (API) to expose the data for free

29 Case Study 2: Visualization

30 Case Study 2: Interpretation Hypothesis: OpenStreetMap amenity data are incomplete and degree of completeness varies across areas

31 Final Tips Analyzing NIBRS data and merging datasets does not have to be expensive Many toolsets are readily available at no cost Require various skill levels Various levels of functionality Consider opportunities for partnering Statistical Analysis Centers Universities

32 NIBRS Toolkit Open-source analytics tool Open-source NIBRS validation tool Configurable for any state or jurisdiction Enforces all FBI NIBRS edits and validation rules Designed to speed transition to NIBRS

33 Thank you! Scott Came Becki Goggins For more information about SEARCH, please visit: SEARCH, The National Consortium for Justice Information and Statistics search.org