OREGON POPULATION FORECAST PROGRAM

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1 OREGON POPULATION FORECAST PROGRAM PROGRAM OVERVIEW BACKGROUND Beginning in 1973 with the passage of Senate Bill (SB) 100, Oregon s growth management system has relied on population forecasts as the primary tool for determining Urban Growth Boundary (UGB) expansions, as well as for crafting planning policy. Estimating future populations based on historic and current trends, as well as assuming the likelihood of future events, population forecasts provide necessary information to help planners, public officials, private firms, and developers better understand the short and long-term implications of population growth in local areas. In the recent past, Oregon law required that counties prepare coordinated population forecasts according to generally accepted demographic methods, which yielded forecasts produced with a highly diverse set of demographic methods. Equally important, the prohibitive cost of forecasting meant that not all communities could update their forecasts on a regular basis. Recognizing the need to be more responsive to accounting for current population trends by preparing population forecasts on a more regular basis, and with a consistent forecast methodology for communities across the state, the Oregon House of Representatives and Senate recently approved legislation 1 assigning coordinated 2 population forecasting to the Population Research Center (PRC) at Portland State University (PSU). JUST THE FACTS In consultation with state representatives, members of the public, as well as officials in the private sector, the main highlights of the newly created Oregon Population Forecast Program are provided below: Coordinated forecasts with a 50-year forecast horizon for Oregon counties and cities 3 no less than once every 4 years. Forecasts will be prepared and released in three groups, each consisting of roughly one-third of the counties along with their corresponding city UGBs, according to the schedule outlined in Figure 1. The Oregon Forecast Program depends on active participation from local governments and members of the public. o To encourage and formally incorporate public input into the coordinated population forecasts: 1 HB2253 legislation became effective July 1, For more information regarding the approved law, see: 2 The following description of coordinated population forecasts is as defined by the Coordinated Population Forecasting Under the Oregon Land-Use Program report, authored by Bob Rindy (DLCD) (2010, p. 2): Coordinated population forecasts are required by law and related rules (ORS and ORS (5) and Oregon Land Use Planning Goal 2, and more specifically OAR ) and these forecasts are, to a large degree, the foundation for each community s land use plan. Outside of the Metro context, a coordinated population forecast means the forecast adopted by each county for the entire county, including cities and rural areas in the county. This term also means those population forecasts adopted by each city in coordination with the county for the land area inside a UGB. Population forecasts must be adopted in coordination with all levels of government. The other levels of government that need to be involved with a county s adoption of a coordinated population forecast include, at a minimum, cities in the county, state agencies, and special districts. 3 Forecasts will be provided for all counties (except for the portions of Multnomah, Clackamas and Washington Counties that are within Metro) and areas within each urban growth boundary (other than the urban growth boundary of Metro) at the time of the base year. For cities with UGBs that are located in more than one county, PRC shall issue forecasts for each part of the UGB (e.g. the City of Willamina s forecast shall be reported separately for the part of the UGB that is in Yamhill and Polk counties). Oregon Population Forecast Program Information Sheet, April

2 PRC will hold Regional meetings across the state to gather input from public officials, developers, citizens, and other interested parties, and; Forecasts will be constructed using locally sourced data provided to PRC by affected local governments and members of the public. The Oregon Forecast Program provides a formal Review Period where local governments, public officials, and citizens have the opportunity to challenge proposed forecasts. The forecast program is fully funded by the State of Oregon, granting counties and cities greater budget flexibility in meeting state land-use planning requirements. FORECAST DELIVERABLES The forecast program provides Oregon cities and counties with the following deliverables: County forecasts containing age-specific cohort detail by five-year time intervals for a 50-year horizon. City UGB forecasts containing total population by five-year time intervals for a 50-year horizon. A report, which at a minimum, includes the following: o Summary of recent demographic characteristics and trends; o Summary of information collected from members of the public and local government; o Documentation of any formal reviews or objections received, and; o Summary of the methodology and assumptions used to develop the forecasts. Figure 1. Population Forecast Schedule. Oregon Population Forecast Program Information Sheet, April

3 A generalized timeline of what local municipalities should prepare for is as follows: Figure 2. Population Forecast Production and Process. Forecast Development Period July Begin process August/September Regional MeeIng #1: Meet with affected local governments & members of the public to gather informaion & answer quesions (dates and locaions TBA) Local governments receive and return PRC Forecast Survey October - January PRC develops forecast for designated groups of counies & corresponding ciies FEBRUARY Regional MeeIng #2: Meet with affected local governments & members of the public to discuss Preliminary forecasts (dates and locaions TBA) Opportunity to provide feedback MARCH Issuance of Proposed forecasts Commence formal Forecast Review Period (see Forecast Review Period at right) Forcast Review Period 45- day period commencing with issuance of Proposed forecast Governments & public may file objecions with new or updated data FinalizaIon Adjustments to Proposed forecast, if necessary NoIce of Final forecast (no later than June 30) Forecast will be accompanied by report including methodological statement, summary of demographic trends, supporing data used, and summary of objecions Oregon Population Forecast Program Information Sheet, April

4 FORECAST DEVELOPMENT AND DATA Developing population forecasts requires numerous data sources. In addition to relying on data we compile from secondary sources (e.g. United States Census Bureau, Oregon Department of Education, Oregon Center for Health Statistics, and the Oregon Employment Department, residential tax lot data from local GIS departments, PRC will administer two Forecast Surveys one for cities and counties and another survey specific to housing development in order to gather information about zoning, urban growth boundaries, comprehensive plans, tax lot/parcel changes, existing conditions, and future plans. REGIONAL PUBLIC MEETINGS The success of the forecast program depends on active participation from local governments and members of the community. To encourage public participation in the forecast process, PRC plans to hold two meetings per forecast group to engage with members of affected local governments, public officials, developers, and public citizens around the following topics: 1. Outline and explain the forecast process. 2. Present demographic changes and trends. 3. Receive input about local areas. 4. Present forecast results and seek feedback. 5. Explain forecast methodology and rationale for forecast assumptions. 6. Field and address questions about forecasts. Additional information regarding the Regional Public Meetings, including location, timing, and possibilities for virtual attendance will be posted to PRC s website as they become available. Members of the public may sign-up to be notified of program developments, meetings, and forecast results here. REVIEW PROCESS The release of the Proposed forecasts will commence the Review Process, which is a 45-day period during which local governments or members of the public can formally object to a Proposed forecast. Objections to a Proposed forecast must: 1. Be in writing and be submitted to PRC via U.S. Mail or , and; 2. Include data or other information 4 not submitted during the development of the Proposed forecast that supports a more accurate forecast. Upon receipt of the formal objection, PRC will work in partnership with the local government or person who brought forth the objection to arrive at a mutually agreeable resolution wherever possible. 4 Under OAR (5a-5d), acceptable data or information may include: (a) Corrections or revisions to information that had been previously sent to PRC ( , 3a-3g); (b) New information that was obtained after submitting the completed questionnaire during the forecast development period; (c) Proof that any of the supporting information used to develop the forecasts are erroneous; (d) Other information that PRC determines is relevant. Oregon Population Forecast Program Information Sheet, April

5 If the objection for one jurisdiction affects the population forecast for any other city or county, then that city or county will be notified during the process and kept abreast of any adjustments potentially affecting their jurisdiction. At the conclusion of the 45-day Review Period additional adjustments to the forecasts will be made at the discretion of PRC, as appropriate, for issuing the Final forecasts. ABOUT PRC The Population Research Center has provided demographic services and analyses for the State of Oregon since 1965, including the Annual Population Estimates Program, which provides annual population estimates for Oregon s cities and counties. PRC also has close ties with the United States Census Bureau as the lead agency responsible for the Oregon State Data Center, a federal-state cooperative program providing access to census data. PRC has worked with private firms, public agencies, and nonprofits on various demographic studies, with its researchers holding over 80 years of combined experience in demographic methods, estimates and forecasts, census data research, teaching, survey research, GIS, and statistical analysis. PRC has a long history and well-regarded reputation working collaboratively with public officials, planners, and the public on population forecasts. Over the course of the past two decades, PRC has completed coordinated population forecasts for numerous communities across Oregon. We recognize the importance of working collaboratively with all of Oregon s cities, towns, and counties large and small and are committed to implementing the forecast program in the most transparent and efficient way. For more information about the Center, go to FURTHER INFORMATION For more information about the Oregon Population Forecast Program, contact Deborah Loftus (loftus2@pdx.edu) or visit the program website at: Oregon Population Forecast Program Information Sheet, April

6 FAQs Why are Multnomah, Clackamas, and Washington counties excluded from this program? o PRC will produce county-level forecasts for these three counties, as well as for city UGBs outside of Metro s jurisdiction. Metro is the only MPO responsible for both transportation and land-use planning, its charge requires the agency to work collaboratively with numerous agencies, and Portland metro has unique data input demands. What do the changes in population forecasting mean for my city? o Population forecasts will be conducted on a regular basis every four years. o These forecasts will be comparable between different locations and times due to consistent methodology. o Planners will need to compile data and answer questionnaires sent by PRC. Please refer to the blank section for more details. What are the benefits of the Oregon Population Forecast Program? o The 50-year time horizon exceeds state mandates for land-use planning, allowing other agencies to use these forecasts without having to commission new reports and forecasts. o PRC already produces annual population estimates under the Oregon Population Estimates Program; conducting both estimates and forecasts at PRC improves efficiency and increases cost savings. o Forecasts are coordinated between counties and their corresponding cities UGBs; feedback from all concerned parties must be considered and incorporated where appropriate, minimizing formal objections to forecasts. o Adoption of final forecasts is not a land-use decision and thus is not appealable to Land Use Board of Appeals (LUBA), reducing legal challenges. o The forecast program is fully funded by the State of Oregon, granting counties and cities greater budget flexibility in meeting state land-use planning requirements. Where can I find Oregon Administrative Rules (OARs) governing this program? o Link to OARs What is the difference between Population Estimates and Population Forecasts? o Population estimates provide snapshots of the current population, while population forecasts are the estimated populations for future years. Both estimates and forecasts are part of this program and provide necessary information to help planners, public officials, private firms, and developers better understand the short and long-term implications of population growth. To ensure that the most current population trends are considered, Oregon law requires preparing and updating population forecasts on a regular basis. Oregon Population Forecast Program Information Sheet, April