PIBC Annual Conference, 2016

Transcription

1 Land Use Quantified PIBC Annual Conference, 2016 A collaboration between: Christy & Associated Planning Consultants The Sustainable Transportation Partnership of the Central Okanagan Hazel Christy Rafael Villarreal Cameron Taylor-Noonan Graham March City of Kelowna

2 Introduction & Moderator Hazel Christy, Christy and Associates Planning Consultants

3 What does Land Use Quantified mean to a planner? Rafael Villarreal, City of Kelowna and Sustainable Transportation Partnership of the Central Okanagan

4 What do we mean by quantified Land Use?

5 For this session, it means that: Motherhood statements aren t enough! Mixed use Compact urban form Compact walkable urban centers Balanced transportation

6 We need facts (numbers) to shape and plan our municipalities

7 Efficiently plan services and design services Source: Esri - Advanced Modeling of Transportation Networks With ArcGIS 9.1 Network Analyst Souce: Aquasense - Intelligent water management for your utilityintelligent water management for your utility

8 Quantify impacts of urban form Source: the cost of sprawl -

9 Enough talk, we need to quantify Challenges: What Where When

10 Enough talk, we need to quantify Challenge 1: What Where When

11 Land Use Quantified = Activity generators (demand for services and activities) Population (Type of Population) Employment (Type of Job) Enrolment (School Type) What Where When Icons the noun project (thenounproject.com): Small Town Collection - Olesya Kozlova, Smoothline Building Collection - Pham Thi Dieu Linh, Briefcase - Pham Thi Dieu Linh, Family Relationship Collection - Gerald Wildmoser

12 Enough talk, we need to quantify Challenge 2: What Where When

13 Geographic Resolution Region Province BC Stats Macro Mid-Long Term Micro What Where When

14 Regional Region/city wide Macro TAZ: Traffic Analysis Zones Long Range Urban Planning Micro Parcel/Lot Level Operational planning Short and Mid-term Short and Mid-Term (3 to 10 years) What Long-Range (10 to 20 years) Where When

15 Our Focus in this session! Graham Region Province- BC Stats Macro Mid-Long Term Cam What Micro Where When

16 Enough talk, we need to quantify Challenge 3: What Where When

17 The land use quantification process (an approach) What Where When Macro Micro Growth Assignment at Zone Level (Shape the City) Estimated Future Growth (Quantified) Aggregation of base Land Use at Zone Level Base year Land Use Quantification at Parcel/Lot Level FUTURE 25 years FUTURE 25 years TODAY Base TODAY Base

18 Let s get started with the land use quantification methods

19 Micro Level: human scale planning Regional Macro Micro Cameron Taylor-Noonan, City of Kelowna and SCARP

20 At What Scale Do We Quantify the City?

21 Traffic Analysis Zones (TAZs)

22 Traffic Analysis Zones (TAZs)

23 Traffic Analysis Zone (TAZ)

24 Traffic Analysis Zone (TAZ) Dissemination Area (DA)

25 Traffic Analysis Zone (TAZ) Dissemination Area (DA)

26 Traffic Analysis Zone (TAZ) Dissemination Area (DA)

27 Traffic Analysis Zone (TAZ) Dissemination Area (DA) Parcels

28 What is Activity? Population Employment Enrolment Icons the noun project (thenounproject.com): Small Town Collection - Olesya Kozlova, Smoothline Building Collection - Pham Thi Dieu Linh, Briefcase - Pham Thi Dieu Linh, Family Relationship Collection - Gerald Wildmoser

29 Components of Activity Population Employment Enrolment

30 Population Challenges Census only happens every five years Population varies throughout the year Tourists place demand on services too

31 Population Data Sources Census: Population at DA level Year-round occupancy rate Average household size (for different types of dwellings) BC Assessment: Type and number of units

32 Method Estimate the population based on type of dwelling, keeping in mind Icons the noun project (thenounproject.com): Small Town Collection - Olesya Kozlova, Smoothline Building Collection - Pham Thi Dieu Linh, Briefcase - Pham Thi Dieu Linh, Family Relationship Collection - Gerald Wildmoser

33 Method There are wide differences in household sizes... 53% 47% Icons the noun project (thenounproject.com): Small Town Collection - Olesya Kozlova, Smoothline Building Collection - Pham Thi Dieu Linh, Briefcase - Pham Thi Dieu Linh, Family Relationship Collection - Gerald Wildmoser

34 Method And big seasonal variations in occupancy 50% ~90% 100% Regional Average

35 Method Based on type of dwelling, nearby vacancy rate, and the percentage of nearby households with children:

36 Method Based on type of dwelling, nearby vacancy rate, and the percentage of nearby households with children:

37 Icons: the noun project, Method Based on type of dwelling, nearby vacancy rate, and the percentage of nearby households with children:

38 Components of Activity Population Employment Enrolment

39 Employment Challenges No census for employment Some jobs have no fixed location Others work from home

40 Icons from: the noun project, Employment Data Sources Canada Business Points: Addresses and employment counts for two-thirds of businesses Survey of Major Employers Business Licenses: Address and type of business BC Assessment: Type and floorspace of buildings

41 Icons the noun project (thenounproject.com): Small Town Collection - Olesya Kozlova, Smoothline Building Collection - Pham Thi Dieu Linh, Briefcase - Pham Thi Dieu Linh, Family Relationship Collection - Gerald Wildmoser Inputs Output

42 Inputs Output

43 Inputs Output

44 Inputs Output

45 Inputs Output

46

47 Components of Activity Population Employment Enrolment

48 Enrolment Data Sources School District 23 Post Secondary Institutions Survey of Private Schools

49 Population

50 Population Employment

51 Icons from: the noun project, Population Employment Enrolment

52 So, Now What?

53 Parcels

54 Traffic Analysis Zones

55 Traffic Analysis Zones

56 Macro Level: Long-range planning Region Macro Micro Graham March, City of Kelowna

57 Challenge How to become the city we envision for the future?

58 The vision for Kelowna s future is primarily described in our Official Community Plan (OCP) through qualitative, motherhood statements such as: Please don t try to read, I will read it for you!

59 Quantitative side but very incomplete And by assigning growth at a nebulous scale

60 Quantifying growth allows us to plan for the future Source: Esri - Advanced Modeling of Transportation Networks With ArcGIS 9.1 Network Analyst Source: Aquasense - Intelligent water management for your utilityintelligent water management for your utility

61 Before we start at the Macro level We first start with projections at Regional Level Region Macro Micro

62 Future Growth at a Regional Scale Challenges: Region-wide projections Need to distribute between municipalities Within each municipality, need to distribute geographically Region Macro Micro

63 Future Population BC Stats PEOPLE Projections Region-wide only, have to break up between municipalities

64 Future Employment 2040 Employment Forecast (HDR Consulting) Some employment is population-driven i.e. more people = more dentists Other employment depends the outlook for specific industries Employment forecast has to mesh with future labour force

65 Employment Categories Retail Services Manufacturing Institutional School Jobs We have a forecast for the number of jobs for each category Icons the noun project (thenounproject.com): Small Town Collection - Olesya Kozlova, Smoothline Building Collection - Pham Thi Dieu Linh, Briefcase - Pham Thi Dieu Linh, Family Relationship Collection - Gerald Wildmoser

66 Now we can Start with Macro-Level: Macro Level: Long-range planning, how to allocate 25 years of growth Region Macro Micro

67 Distribute OCP growth at TAZ level Growth nodes

68 2040 Growth Allocation We have an idea of the future 2040 population and employment for the Region and the City Challenge: Where is this growth going to occur to realize motherhood objectives? Qualitative + Quantitative

69 Distribution methodology Distribution of the 2040 population and jobs projections was done using a combination of tools we created in-house: Vacant Land Inventory Tool (VLI-T) Development Potential Tool (DP-T)

70 Vacant Land Inventory Tool Identifies lands that will likely redevelop in the near term

71 VLI Tool - Kelowna Core Value of Building Value of Land

72 Land to redevelop by 2040 (Vacant Land Inventory Tool)

73 Development Potential Tool Determines future population and employment of properties

74 Development Potential Tool: The Development Potential Tool converts property size and future land use designation into population and job yield these results are based on zoning regulations and other factors. We used this tool for the properties that will redevelop to get a sense of the units and jobs future capacity for each TAZ.

75 Development Potential of Site (Development Potential Tool)

76 Employment growth allocation methodology Employment assumption was to intensify where jobs already exist to create employment nodes Identify underutilized lands that are designated for commercial Determined square feet of potential commercial space Applied employment factors Future jobs COMM sq.ft. Employment factors Future jobs

77 2040 Landuse Projections Growth In Employment

78 Population growth allocation methodology Growth assigned to lands that is vacant or will likely redevelop by 2040 Growth assigned to parcels that are highest and best use (including desired future designation) Apply future growth to areas that will help realize the vision Balance of qualitative and quantitative

79 2040 Landuse Projections Growth In Population

80 How about Market realities? Experience is critical to apply the gut check to the numbers Realizing growth is a balance between the qualitative (vision/motherhood statements), and quantitative (growth numbers), and experience (does it feel right)

81 Successful growth projection balances Motherhood statements + Growth projections + Market reality (experience)

82 Conclusion (Long Range Quantification) Combining qualitative and quantitative, along with experience (knowledge of market), helps to shape the city s future vision

83 Now let s talk What Where When Hazel Christy, Christy and Associates Planning Consultants

84 Challenges - How to decide what land use to quantify? - Assumptions - Future is unknown - Population distribution - Qualitative vs. Quantitative vs. Market realities