5.0 POPULATION, HOUSEHOLD AND EMPLOYMENT FORECASTS

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1 5.0 POPULATION, HOUSEHOLD AND EMPLOYMENT FORECASTS 5.1 Hemson Consulting Ltd. Forecasts Hemson Consulting Ltd. was retained in 03 to prepare new growth projections for the County as part of its Official Plan review and update process. The final Hemson report was released in May 04. The following identifies the main conclusions and assumptions of the Hemson study: Simcoe has grown faster than the Province as a whole over the past three decades and faster than the GT A over the past years. Growth within the County has been highly concentrated in the southern areas of the County due to the proximity to the GTA. Net migration has been the largest contributor to growth in Ontario over the past to 30 years; Simcoe has a young enough population that it would continue to grow without migration through natural increase, but at a much slower rate. Barrie and the other municipalities along the Highway 400 corridor in southern Simcoe, and Wasaga Beach, have experienced recent high rates of growth. Growth in Orillia and the municipalities in central Simcoe (including Springwater) have been more modest than Barrie or south Simcoe. Hemson's forecast at the local level only take into account historic shares of the County Growth and recent shares of housing construction and as such, is a demand based forecast. They do not take into account the supply or availability of water and waste water servicing. The pattern of growth in Simcoe seen in recent years will continue through the forecast period, with Barrie and areas to the south growing rapidly. Barrie will attract a greater amount of growth in the Hemson forecasts than the current County OP forecasts, affecting Springwater and other municipalities around Barrie, who are forecast to see smaller populations than the previous forecasts. There is no physical or policy reason why more growth than currently forecasted should be directed to the County. Higher growth is dependant on designating more lands for development and ensuring that the capital investment in the required infrastructure is made. A regional (County) approach to the following growth management issues should be undertaken: How much growth should the County accommodate? What are the appropriate locations for future growth? How should it be implemented? Hemson Consulting, as part of their work for the County has been directed to prepare a work plan that will set out the terms of reference for a regional growth management exercise for review by County Council. It is our understanding that this exercise will form part of the County Official Plan review process currently underway. Of interest in the Hemson report is the assumption that Page 36

2 Barrie will attract a greater amount of the growth forecast for the County and that the forecast for Springwater will fall in response. The Hemson report does not assess the different functions of the communities in Springwater and the different housing markets that they tend to supply. If Barrie is not or cannot provide the type and form of development and communities that will be provided in Springwater, increased growth in Barrie should have no or little impact on the share of growth expected to occur in Springwater. Provided in Figures 22 to 25 are the results of the Hemson forecasts for Springwater. Figure 22 County Population Forecast Census ,055 Growth Source: Hemson 04 Forecast ,600 45, Total 473, , , ,0 44,818 47,058 49,584 50, ,462 Figure 23 Springwater Population Share Census Forecast % Source: Hemson % % 2.80% 2.80% 2.80% Figure 24 Springwater Population Forecast Census Forecast ,104 17,400 18,700 Growth 1,296 1, ,000 1, ,300 1, ,600 1,300 Total 6,496 Source: Hemson 04 Figure 25 Springwater Dwelling Unit Forecast Census Forecast 01 5, , ,0 21 7, ,400 Source: Hemson 04 The Hemson forecasts, while conservative, still assume a significant level of growth for the Township and a significant obligation to plan for its accommodation. Based on the Hemson forecasts, Springwater's population will increase by almost 6,500 persons to 22,600 persons by 26. This level of population growth will generate housing unit demand of 3,049 units to 26. Utilizing the CMHC data on Housing Completions for Simcoe County between 1994 and 03 (Figure 26) and our assumptions regarding the share of housing by type for the Township of Page 37

3 Springwater, the municipality will need to accommodate a full range of housing types by 26. This would potentially inc/ude 2479 single detached dwellings, 127 semi-detached dwellings, 331 row or townhouse dwellings, and 112 apartment style dwelling units to the end of the forecast period of 26 (Figure 27). Accommodating this growth and the supply of a range of housing is one of the most significant roles and responsibilities of the Township's planning function. Figure 26 coumy t H ousmg c omple If lons- T en Y ear A verage Single Detached Semi-Detached Row House Apartment 81.22% 4.24% 10.85% 3.69% Source: CMHC 04 Figure 27 S iprmgwa. t er H ousm ~ b )y T Iype Semi- Year Single Detached Detached Row House Apartment Ministry of Finance, Ontario Population Projections , July 00. The Ministry of Finance regularly prepares population forecasts to assist municipalities and government ministries with their long range planning. While not government policy targets, the forecasts are detailed projections at the provincial and regional level based on the normal cohort survival methodology. Produced in July 00 and updated in August 02, the most recent Ministry of Finance report forecasts population to the year 28. The Ministry's forecast has been reviewed and analyzed with respect to the projections for Simcoe County and the likely results for Springwater Township. Provided in Figure 28 is the forecasted population for Simcoe County based on its forecasted share of the provincial forecast. By 26 the Province is forecasting the County to have a total population of 629,834, an increase of 249,853 persons. The Province has forecast that the County of Simcoe will increase its share of the Provincial population from 3.2% in 01 to /0 by 26. Page 38

4 Figure 28 Simcoe County Forecasts 700,000.., , , ==-- 400, == ,000 0, ,000 o Simcoe forecasted pop_ Source: MOF, Ontario Population Projections, 02 Based on Springwater's historical share of the Provincial population (0.14%- average of 1996 & 01 census) and Springwater's' share of the County's population (4.31% - average of 1996 & 01 census) and no changes to that share over the forecast period, Figure 29 shows that Springwater's population is forecast to be between 21,570 to 27,146 persons in 26. These forecasts, utilizing a steady share approach, would result in population increases for the Township of between 4,882 persons and 10,769 persons. Figure 29 Springwater Forecasts III Springwater forecast based on historical proportion/province I!I Springwater forecast based on historical proportion/county Year Source: MOF, Ontario Population Projections, 02 The Provincial forecasts for the County are higher than those prepared by Hemson Consulting Ltd. The Province is forecasting a total population for the County in 26 of 629,834, an increase of 249,853 persons, while Hemson is forecasting a population of 618,0, an increase of 237,462 for the same time period. This illustrates the need to expect and plan for a range of population numbers, in the event that growth is quicker than that anticipated by the County projects. Page 39

5 5.3 HOUSING LAND DEMAND REQUIREMENTS In order to accommodate the projected growth for the Township to the end of the forecast period, the Township must ensure that sufficient lands are contained within the defined settlement areas and designated for housing purposes in the Official Plan. Utilizing the population and housing forecasts produced by Hemson Consulting Ltd., a demand calculation can be undertaken to determine the amount of land required to meet the forecasted growth. Forecasting demand requires a number of assumptions, which are provided below: The population and household forecasts generated by Hemson Consulting for the County of Simcoe will be utilized. Density figures from the approved Official Plan and the 1996 Growth Management Strategy will be utilized. Springwater has a full range of servicing standards within the nine defined settlement areas, from full municipal services in Elmvale to complete private services in Orr Lake. Assuming full servicing, it is possible to calculate the amount of land required to accommodate the forecasted growth. Of course, existing approved but un-built developments would also form part of the supply of lands available to accommodate new growth. A deficiency in the amount of land designated for new growth would support the need to designate new lands within the Township for growth. Figure 30 below details the required lands to accommodate the forecasted growth for the Township, assuming no lands were currently designated and full services were available. Igure 30 G reen f Ie Id R equiremen t Units Single Oetached Semi-Oetached Row House Apartment Total Totals (01-26) Density (uph) Land area (ha) EMPLOYMENT LAND DEMAND REQUIREMENTS Utilizing the forecasted population growth for the Township generated by Hemson Consulting Ltd, and also utilizing the high and low forecasts generated from the Provincial forecasts, it is possible to calculate the demand for employment land in the Township for the forecast period. Like all forecasting methodologies, the forecasting of employment land demand for Springwater is based on a number of assumptions. The assumptions used in this forecast are as follows: The labour force participation rate has been set at the 01 rate of 69%. Although the rate has trended upwards from the 1991 census, a rate of 69% was felt to be conservative. The relative shares of employment in the three main categories (resource based, manufacturing, and services) will remain relatively constant throughout the forecast Page 40

6 period. The forecast utilizes minor changes in the shares (i.e. forecasting a decline in the resource based sector from 5.1% in 01 to 4% in 26). Resource based employment is located on the existing agricultural land base in the Township and therefore requires only the continuation of the protective policy framework to meet its land needs. Population based employment (services, retail, education, etc.) will be planned through individual applications responding to market need and through the development approval process like plans of subdivision, secondary plan or community plan exercises. No municipal action will be required to provide land needs for this employment sector as part of the OP review, as long as their uses are all permitted in Settlement Areas. The Township must accommodate manufacturing jobs in a long term planning process as a result of the larger land needs and the locational sensitivity of this sector. The ratio of jobs maintained in the Township versus commuting outside the Township will remain constant through the planning period. The ratio of 0.51, being the 01 Census figure, was utilized in the forecast. Employment density figures used in the 1996 report for industrial development on private services of 15 employees per net hectare are assumed to be reflective of actual and achievable densities in Springwater. A range of densities is used in the forecast to determine a range of land needs in order to provide for a flexible and competitive market. Density figures for fully serviced industrial development can range from 30 to 40 employees per net hectare, but are not used in this report. Figures 31 to 33 show the calculated land demand for employment purposes for Springwater based on the three population forecasts. F Igure 31 - L ow Employment Lands Demand Employees per hectare Land (hectares) F Igure 32 - M"d I -range Employment Lands Demand Employees per hectare Land (hectares) Page 41

7 Figure 33- High Employment Lands Demand Employees per hectare Land (hectares) Based on the range of growth forecasts, the demand for employment lands in the Township of Springwater will range from 27 hectares (67 acres) at the low end to a high of 60 hectares (148 acres) based on a net density of 15 employees per hectare. The mid range demand, based on the Hemson population forecasts and a net density of 15 employees per hectare, reports a need for 33 hectares (82 acres) of land for employment purposes in the Township of Springwater to 26. In order to provide a flexible and competitive market, and to recognize the standard vacancy factor of 50%, and in order to capture a portion of the significant demand for industrial space in the Simcoe market, the Township should ensure that at least a 90 hectare (222 acre) supply of employment lands is identified as part of the Official Plan update process and is planned and available during the planning period. Page 42

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