National Hurricane Program. FEMA Region IV

Transcription

1 National Hurricane Program FEMA Region IV

2 Percent NHP A quick background Hurricane Program major buckets (Toolboxes) Hurricane Evacuation Study HURREVAC Post Storm Assessments Training Hurricane Liaison Team (HLT) Believe Home Would Flood Dangerously in 155 MPH Hurricane Northern Coastal Tampa Bay Southwest Coastal Cat Cat Northern Inland Central Inland Southern Inland Inland of

3 Hurricane Evacuation Studies New Hurricane Evacuation Studies are in the process of starting (AL, MS, GA, SC) Work with Fed (USACE, FEMA, NOAA), State, local partners New hazard data (SLOSH model) Updated analyses New maps and Clearance times

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5 Studies Surge maps.shp files HES website features Hurrevac training and propaganda Historical Post Storm Assessments Current activities

6 HES Web portal

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8 Interactive maps

9 HURREVAC - a toolbox A one-stop-shop Storm info Storm forecast Storm Watches/Warnings Wind timing Wind decay models 1-3 day QPF Flood outlooks River gauge obs/forecast Common Operating Picture

10 HURREVAC 2010

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17 Hurrevac 2010 training Webinar training Tuesday, August 17, :30-11:30am EDT

18 Training to Coastal Communities G-363 Hurricane Readiness for Coastal Communities NHC, NWS, FEMA 2 day EMI course Hurricane basics Hurricane Hazards Hurricane Products EM readiness checklist driven by phased operations L-324 Intro to Hurricane Preparedness 5 day NHC IS-324 online! Updated May 2010

19 Training to Inland Communities Development of training for inland frequently requested Hurricane Readiness for Inland Communities SERFC, NWS, FEMA 1 day EMI course Hurricane basics High Winds Tornadoes Rainfall/Flooding/Products EM readiness checklist driven by phased operations

20 Links to register for Hurrevac and training! for Community Hurricane Preparedness

21 Hurricane Liaison Team Mission Melissa Ann Janssen/FEMA FEMA Hurricane Liaison Team Technical Support Officer Ed Simmers prepares for a video teleconference with those states potentially affected by Hurricane Ivan. Coordination Cooperation Collaboration Support hurricane response operations through the rapid exchange of critical information between the National Hurricane Center and emergency managers at all levels. 21

22 Hurricane Liaison Team Summary of Operations Andy Newman Michael Brown, former director of the Federal Emergency Management Agency reviews projected-hurricane Dennis tidal surge levels for the Gulf coast of the United States with Brock Long and Matthew Green, Saturday, July 9, 2005, at the National Hurricane Center in Miami. Full-time FEMA staff at the NHC HLT may be activated when a hurricane threatens the United States or territories and the NHC deems the assistance is required Full activation can occur within 24 hours of notification Request support from local NWS WFOs to the NHC HLT remains operational until the hurricane threat passes 22

23 Hurricane Liaison Team Responsibilities White House Photo President George W. Bush is handed a map by Deputy Chief of Staff Joe Hagin, center, during a video teleconference with federal and state emergency management organizations on hurricane Katrina from his Crawford, Texas ranch on Sunday August 28, Facilitate video and audio conference briefings to Federal and State agencies Direct issues of importance to the NHC Hurricane Specialists Field and refer emergency management calls to appropriate state or other offices 23

24 FEMA Hurricane Liaison Team Communication Flowchart DHS HSOC FEMA NRCC National Hurricane Center HLT HLT FEMA RRCC State EOCs Local NWSFOs Local EOCs 24

25 Hurricane Liaison Team Contact Us Brandon Bolinski Rebecca Jennings Pete Curran HLT Phone Numbers (305) (305) (305) HLT HLT Web site 25

26 Use and Misuse of Hurricane Forecast Products because great minds don t always think alike

27 Hurricane Forecast Products: Needs for information What works, what doesn t Seasonal Forecasts Models Timing Sorting through information

28 Needs Forecasts Impact focused forecasts What does that mean to me? Plain language briefings Watch/Warning Definition Many communities start prep and evacuations well before warnings and some before watches PSA: >50% of public can t define watch or warning Hazard based warnings?

29 Needs More info Updates of forecasts/impacts more frequently Event driven Tropical Weather Outlooks outside of season A better feel for confidence in forecast Good feelings about certain aspects Weakest handle on the situation

30 Needs Less info Forecast details and changes More plain language products, discussions Website-apalooza Multiple offices/products are needed to get the entire picture Blogs, websites, models, twitter, mobile, briefings, s,.etc. = information overload?

31 Providing a consistent message From Post Storm Assessments - Consistent message is important Multiple sources with reaffirming information helps decision makers Exceedingly difficult with availability of independent forecasts Model output information on the web

32 Seasonal Forecasts = Awareness

33 Raw Models Track and Intensity forecasts used Used in conjunction with Forecast Discussion Helps with forecast confidence and worst case scenarios (possible tracks mentioned by forecasters) Decisions based on official track Used prior to named storm and forecast Still misunderstanding some of the uses

34 Does this help?

35 Good News?

36 Thurs Wed Tues Timing Mon

37 Imminent Threat

38 Preparing (responding) well in advance Photo by Dr. Sandy Bogucki

39 7 Day Forecast?

40 Briefing Examples

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42 What is the likelihood that the storm will follow a path outside this cone? 10% Storm can go where it wants to, but the storm is supposed to be inside the error cone for the first 24hrs. very likely Remote, but possible 1/3 of the time (4)

43 Model Data

44 Using this model data please rate your confidence in the following the forecast information:

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46 Shows the cone of uncertainty of hurricane force winds over the next five days Storm forecast (intensity, size, wind speed) Forecast track and error cone swath Probable wind speeds at generally different locations and times

47 Summary official forecast information Hurricane Liaison Team: briefing products, additional information HURREVAC additional briefing tools Be cautious of additional information (more doesn t = better) Planning, preparation for all scenarios

48 Regional Hurricane Program Brandon Bolinski Rebecca Jennings