Caribbean Early Warning System Workshop
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1 Caribbean Early Warning System Workshop Hamonization in Existing EWS April 14-16, 2016 Presenter: Shawn Boyce Caribbean Institute for Meteorology and Hydrology Husbands, St. James Barbados
2 Background Between 2006 and 2007 a country-level survey conducted by WMO found that the hazards affecting the Caribbean are tropical cyclones, flash floods, thunderstorms, storm surges, coastal flooding, drought, landslides, strong winds, river flooding and earthquakes WMO-No. 1082
3 Background cont d Between 1980 and 2007 WMO documented that nearly 98% of disasters, 99% of casualties and 99% of economic losses related to natural hazards were caused by recurrent meteorological, hydrological and climate related events primarily tropical cyclones, storm surges, floods and drought WMO-No. 1082
4 Harmonization Cyclone Landslide Flood Drought MHEWS Multi-Hazard Early Warning Systems (MHEWS)
5 Harmonization cont d During WMO with supoort from regional and international partners conducted a comprehensive assessment of the institutional and technical capacities and needs of the Caribbean region to support MHEWS. The outcomes of this assessment can be found in the document presented
6 Harmonization cont d Monitoring and Forecasting Preparedness and Response MHEWS Risk Analysis Dissemination and Warning Components of Effective MHEWS
7 Harmonization cont d Hazard Data Economic Data Data Ingestion Process Modeling DEWETRA Scenario Development Risk Analysis Caribbean Dewetra Platform Online Decision Support Forum Social Data
8 Harmonization cont d ERC Project Primary Centre Backup Centre Italian Dewetra Caribbean Dewetra Platform Conceptualization Caribbean Dewetra
9 MHEWS Components Weather Monitoring Station Data
10 Weather Monitoring - GOES
11 Weather Monitoring Weather Radar
12 Climate Monitoring Drought Monitor (1 month SPI) Short-term conditions (soil moisture, plant stress)
13 Climate Monitoring Drought Monitor (12 month SPI) Long-term conditions (river flows, reservoirs)
14 Weather Forecasting - WRF
15 South Rivers Vinlec Intake Weather Forecasting NHC Forecast Track & Cone
16 Wave Height Forecasting TAOS
17 Climate Prediction Outlooks Work in progress...
18 Risk Analysis - Elements at Risk
19 Risk Analysis Population Demographics
20 Water level sensor 1 Rain Gauge Water level sensor 2
21 Warning Level 1 (Alert Stage) Flood is possible but the condition does not pose any imminent danger to the residents. Warning Level 2 (Preparation Stage) It is very likely that the flood may take place. Warning Level 3 (Evacuation Stage) Flood is absolutely very dangerous for the people. Dissemination and Warning
22 Rio Cobre Watershed Predicted rainfall intensity 2013/10/16 23Z 2013/10/17 00Z
23 From: To: Date: Thu Oct 17 22:24: Subject: Rainfall Intensity Alert //TEST// The WRF hourly rainfall intensity has exceeded 50 mm/hr in the Rio Cobre watershed. Flash flooding is a possibility in the next 48 hrs //TEST// *Algorithm searches for rainfall intensity above threshold within target watershed and issues alert Warning and Dissemination Dissemination and Warning
24 Weather/Climate Impacts Reporting Crowd Sourcing
25 Weather Impacts Reporting Crowd Sourcing
26 Summary Monitoring and Forecasting Preparedness and Response MHEWS Risk Analysis Dissemination and Warning Components of Effective MHEWS
27 Thank You Shawn A. Boyce Chief Hydrologist (Ag.) Caribbean Institute for Meteorology and Hydrology Web: Facebook: YouTube:
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