Indices and Indicators for Drought Early Warning
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1 Indices and Indicators for Drought Early Warning ADRIAN TROTMAN CHIEF, APPLIED METEOROLOGY AND CLIMATOLOGY CARIBBEAN INSTITUTE FOR METEOROLOGY AND HYDROLOGY IN COLLABORATION WITH THE NATIONAL DROUGHT MITIGATION CENTRE (NDMC) UNIVERSITY OF NEBRASKA, LINCOLN WMO WORKSHOP ON ENHANCING CLIMATE INDICES FOR SECTOR-SPECIFIC APPLICATIONS IN PACIFIC ISLAND REGION Nadi, Fiji, 7-11 December 2015
2 Types of Drought
3 What is a Drought Indicator versus a Drought Index? Indicator: a measure of a meteorological, hydrological, agricultural, or socio-economic variable that provides an indication of potential drought related stress or deficiency. Index: a method of deriving value added information related to drought by comparing current conditions to historical information based upon statistical calculations. (Note: Indices are indicators as well)
4 Precipitation amounts River and Streamflow levels Soil Moisture information Evapotranspiration information Reservoir storage Impact information Crop status/yield estimation reports Temperature Vegetation Health/Stress Short and long-term/seasonal forecasts Ground water Snow pack Examples of Indicators
5 Examples of Indices Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) Surface Water Supply Index (SWSI) Percent of Normal/Departure from Normal Precipitation Deciles Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) Effective Drought Index (EDI) Many others!
6 Criteria for a Drought Index The timescale should be appropriate to the problem at hand The index should be a quantitative measure of large-scale, long-continuing drought conditions (intensity, duration, spatial extent) The index should be applicable to the problem being studied A long accurate past record of the index should be available or computable The index should be able to be computed on a near realtime basis to be used operationally
7 Lincoln Declaration on Drought Indices Recommends that the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) be computed and used by Meteorological/Hydrological Services as the common meteorological drought index globally (WMO)
8 Characteristics of the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) Developed by McKee et al. in 1993 Simple index--precipitation is the only parameter Probability of observed precipitation transformed into an index Being used in research or operational mode in over 80 countries Multiple time scales allow for temporal flexibility in evaluation of precipitation conditions and water supply
9 SPI Methodology Overview: The SPI is an index based on the probability of precipitation for any time scale. Who uses it: Many drought planners appreciate the SPI s versatility. Pros: The SPI can be computed for different time scales can provide early warning of drought and help assess drought severity less complex than the Palmer. One number/has historical context Can be calculated with missing data in the input Cons: Based on Precipitation only no Temperature, no ET. Values based on preliminary data may change. The SPI was designed to quantify the precipitation deficit for multiple time scales These time scales reflect the impact of drought on the availability of the different water resources Soil moisture conditions respond to precipitation anomalies on a relatively short scale. Groundwater, streamflow, and reservoir storage reflect the longer-term precipitation anomalies For these reasons, McKee et al. (1993) originally calculated the SPI for 3, 6,12, 24, and 48 month time scales.
10 SPI Methodology The SPI calculation for any location is based on the long-term precipitation record for a desired period. The long-term record is fitted to a probability distribution, which is then transformed into a normal distribution so that the mean SPI for the location and desired period is zero (Edwards and McKee, 1997) Positive SPI values indicate greater than median precipitation, and negative values indicate less than median precipitation Because the SPI is normalized, wetter and drier climates can be represented in the same way, and wet periods can also be monitored using the SPI.
11 SPI Classifications SPI Classification (Mckee et al 1993) SPI classification used from January 2011 by CIMH SPI Category Probability (%) Extremely wet to 1.99 Very wet to 1.49 Moderately wet to 0.99 Near normal to Moderately dry to Severely dry and less Extremely dry 2.3 SPI value Category SPI value Impact to Normal 0.50 to 0.01 Normal to Abnormally dry 0.80 to 0.51 Abnormally wet to Moderately dry 1.30 to 0.81 Moderately wet to Severely dry 1.60 to 1.31 Very wet to Extremely dry 2.00 to 1.61 Extremely wet Exceptionally dry 2.01 Exceptionally wet
12 SPI on Different time scales SPI1 SPI3 SPI6 SPI12
13 Tailoring from rainfall to a drought alerting system Supporting Disaster Risk Management Drought alert maps Part persistence, part forecast Short Term Drought Based on SPI 6 month Another forecast related example forecasting the SPI Into an alerting Long Term Drought at end of Wet/Huricane Season based on SPI 12 Month Activity began as a collaboration between CariCOF, CACOF and IRI Also widely used by water resources managers and agriculturists
14 Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) Based upon precipitation and temperature data Has the capacity to include the effects of temperature variability on drought assessment SPEI is based on water balance, Developed by Serrano, Begueria and Moreno
15 Calculating the SPEI Based upon the original SPI calculation procedure. SPI is calculated using monthly precipitation as the input data. Uses the same available time scales as the SPI.
16 Calculating the SPEI The SPEI uses the monthly difference between precipitation and PET(Potential Evapotranspiration) which is a simple water balance methodology(based upon work by Thornthwaite, 1948) that is calculated at different time scales to obtain the SPEI. Can also use other means of PET calculation. A serially complete data set of both temperature and precipitation is needed to calculate the SPEI. Software has been created to automatically calculate the SPEI over a wide range of time scales. The software is freely available in the Web repository of the Spanish National Research Council (available online at
17
18 Penman- Monteith Rn net radiation at the crop surface [MJ m-2 day-1], G soil heat flux density [MJ m-2 day-1], T air temperature at 2 m height [ C], u2 wind speed at 2 m height [m s-1], es saturation vapour pressure [kpa], ea actual vapour pressure [kpa], es - ea saturation vapour pressure deficit [kpa], D slope vapour pressure curve [kpa C-1], g psychrometric constant [kpa C-1].
19 Year Month SPEI Point Salines, Grenada Year Month SPEI Point Salines, Grenada Year Month SPEI Point Salines, Grenada
20 Thank you
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