Building a Weather Ready Nation: Linking Impact Based Decision Support Services to Observations, Forecasts, Warnings & Dissemination

Transcription

1 Building a Weather Ready Nation: Linking Impact Based Decision Support Services to Observations, Forecasts, Warnings & Dissemination Dr. Louis W. Uccellini Director, NOAA Assistant Administrator for Weather Services 20 August 2014 World Weather Open Science Conference

2 Outline Increased Vulnerability to Natural Disasters The Basis for Building a Weather-Ready Nation Taking Predictions to the Next Level Linking Forecasts/Warnings to Impact-Based Decision Support Services Challenges for Impact-Based Decision Support Services (IDSS) Ongoing Advances Summary

3 Building a Weather-Ready Nation 3

4 Increase in Extreme Events Average Year and Trends in the U.S. 650 Deaths $15B in Losses 26,000 Severe Thunderstorms 6 Atlantic Basin Hurricanes 1,300 Tornadoes 5,000 Floods Increasing population Increasing vulnerability More infrastructure at risk Improved forecasts of extreme events 4 8 days in advance Need to take these forecasts to the next level for effective decision support 4

5 NWS Strategic Outcome: A Weather-Ready Nation Becoming a Weather-Ready Nation is about building community resiliency in the face of increasing vulnerability to extreme weather: Ready, Responsive, Resilient REQUIRES Better Forecasts and Warnings Extending Forecast Accuracy and Consistency Linking Physical and Social Sciences Multiple Dissemination Pathways Working with Partners to Gain Response; includes embedding NWS in Emergency Operations Centers Involves entire US Weather Enterprise WORKING TOGETHER to achieve far reaching national preparedness for weather events 5

6 The Spectrum of IDSS* Linking Observations, Forecasts & Warnings to IDSS Observe Forecast Warn Communicate for Proper Response From a User Perspective the links between observations, forecast, and warnings and the decision makers Sustain Situational Awareness Relate/Connect to Key Decision Points Multiple questions/issues on how to sustain, relate and connect * As viewed by a meteorologist 6

7 Taking Predictions to the Next Level Linking forecasts/warnings to Impact-Based Decision Support Services Severe Weather Outbreaks Hurricanes Sandy & Arthur 7

8 2011 Severe Weather Season SOUTHEAST April U.S. 27, 2011 JOPLIN May 22, fatalities 158 fatalities A Vital Conversation : December 2011 Workshop (Norman, OK) Integrate social and physical science Is the message delivered equal to the message received? Focus Impact-based on the last Forecast mile : and Warnings delivery of warnings, reduce false alarm rate Assess and update warning dissemination strategy Improve outreach & education 8

9 Taking Predictions to the Next Level Moore EF-5 Tornado (May 20, 2013) Convective Outlooks highlighted threat 6 days out, SPC FEMA coordination began 4 days in advance Norman WFO coordinated with EM/city managers 5 days in advance 31 minutes of warning lead time for Moore, OK EF 5 Intensity, 200+ mph winds, 1.08 miles wide 24 fatalities Day 1 Tornado Probability 6 Days 4 Days 3Days 2Days 9

10 IDSS: Going Beyond the Forecast Moore Tornado (May 20, 2013) Successful Efforts to Improve Impact-Based Decision Support Services WFO Norman did focused partnership development with local leaders in Moore over a 2 year period Emergency managers, schools, and hospitals Impact-based Warning Demonstration applied in Norman (2012-current) Multiple dissemination outlets established by Norman WFO The information you and the weather service provided us ultimately saved more lives than we could ever count. --Shane Cohea, Moore Medical Center WFO connection to the Moore Medical Center; Lessons learned from Joplin Moore Medical Center took a direct hit No lives lost at the hospital Award-winning WCM Rick Smith worked with Moore Hospital months before it took a direct hit 10

11 Information Delivery Success Midwest Tornado Outbreak November 17, th Largest November Tornado Outbreak: ~71 tornadoes, 8 fatalities Wireless Emergency Alerts (WEA) Coordination calls with FEMA and state emergency managers 3 days in advance Successful dissemination Washington, IL 4 Days 36 Hours 12 Hours Watches/Warnings Storm Reports & 12hr Outlook 11

12 Hurricane Sandy October 21, Z through October 31, Z Click to edit Master title style Click to edit Master subtitle style National Hurricane Center's 5 day forecast track Issued at 11 a.m. EDT on Thursday, October

13 Communicating the Threat Hurricane Sandy (2012) Consistency in Forecast Products & Communication From Thursday through Monday: Forecaster collaboration - NCEP Centers, WFOs, and other NOAA line offices (NESDIS, NOS, OMAO) Communication with FEMA, local emergency management (through the WFOs), other government agencies, private sector weather firms, and the media all worked from same basic message Impact-Based Decision Support Focused on the following messages: Unique nature of storm (expected transition from tropical to extra-tropical) Large area of wind impacts, focusing on more than the storm center Unusual track (re-curvature of storm toward New Jersey) Worst Case Scenario compared to the Perfect Storm in 1991 Record inundation along the East Coast & Record Blizzard in Appalachian Mtns. Because of these actions, decision makers and the general public understood the dangerous impacts & took action days before the storm made landfall. THESE ACTIONS SAVED LIVES! 13

14 2014: Improved Forecasts & Products Hurricane WRF Model & New Storm Surge Graphics HWRF Forecast Track & Forecast Radar Reflectivity for Hurricane Arthur (18z 01 JUL 14) Hurricane Arthur Potential Storm Surge Mapping Best Guess, Worst Case Scenario Actual Track HWRF Forecast Track 14

15 Challenges for IDSS People s Reaction to Risk The Spectrum of Decision-Making Incorporating Social Science 15

16 People s Reaction to Risk From the Biology of Risk by John Coates; New York Times Sunday Review (8 June 2014) Most models in economics and finance assume that risk preferences are a stable trait, much like your height. But this assumption, as our studies suggest, is misleading. Humans are designed with shifting risk preferences. They are an integral part of our response to stress or challenges. The shifting risk preference poses enormous challenges to linking predictions to IDSS. 16

17 Additional Challenges for IDSS The shifting risk preferences are compounded by the spectrum of decision makers (as described by William Wittel of Hall County Georgia, WMO international conference - AMS Annual Meeting in Atlanta, GA) Organized government agencies Loosely Coupled e.g. social/religious organizations Organic - personal 17

18 Barriers to Successful IDSS The recognition of and response to risks are a function of: The decision maker The extent that they have a plan The extent that plan suits their risk management AND addresses shifting risk preferences Organizations and people (individuals) will shop around for confirmation risk assessment [multiple dissemination multiple choices] = Consistency of Message The role of social science & successful partnerships loom large! 18

19 Ongoing Advancements Linking a Seamless Suite of Forecast Products to IDSS thru Ensemble Prediction Connecting Prediction to Societal Needs

20 Climate Prediction Center Outlooks February 13-14, 2014 (Snow Event & Cold Outbreak) Days 8-14 Precipitation Days 8-14 Temperature Days 6-10 Precipitation Days 6-10 Temperature 20

21 Forecasting Successes of February 13-14, 2014 Weather Prediction Center Surface Analysis Forecasts Day 5 Day 3 Day 1 Weather Prediction Center Forecasts - Probability of more than 4 snow Day 3 Day 2 Day 1 Analysis Analysis

22 Upcoming Advancements Extend Forecast Accuracy, reduce uncertainty Multi-model ensembles linked to key decision thresholds 3 Days Before Event Criteria for DCA Slight Prob >40% Modt Prob >40% High Prob > 40% 3-h Snow > 0.2 > 0.75 > h Snow > 1 > 2 >6 3-h Fz Rain > 0.01 > 0.05 Visibility < 3 mi < 1 mi < ½ mi 22

23 Communicating Impact (Aviation) 2 Days Before Event Criteria for DCA Slight Prob >40% Modt Prob >40% High Prob > 40% 3-h Snow > 0.2 > 0.75 > h Snow > 1 > 2 >6 3-h Fz Rain > 0.01 > 0.05 Visibility < 3 mi < 1 mi < ½ mi 23

24 Communicating Impact (Aviation) 1 Day Before Event Criteria for DCA Slight Prob >40% Modt Prob >40% High Prob > 40% 3-h Snow > 0.2 > 0.75 > h Snow > 1 > 2 >6 3-h Fz Rain > 0.01 > 0.05 Visibility < 3 mi < 1 mi < ½ mi 1/3 of flights canceled at DCA 24

25 Making Connections Connecting Prediction Capabilities to Societal Need Water How Much, How Little, Quality HAB, Hypoxia, Vibrio Agriculture Food Security Energy Production Health Prediction of vectors for Malaria, Cholera, Dengue Fever 25

26 Summary Building a Weather-Ready Nation/Globe Making progress in IDSS but we need a better understanding of the human factors as we extend forecast & warnings to a full IDSS paradigm Social Science! Successful IDSS requires improved forecast/warning with decreased uncertainty Multi-Model Ensembles applied across all scales from climate to mesoscale are now the basis for making this happen -> Congratulations THORPEX The Weather Enterprise is poised to take prediction to other fields for societal impact experiments water/agriculture/energy/health 26

27 THANK YOU!

28 Improving Track Forecasts for Land-Falling Hurricanes Narrowing the Cone of Uncertainty White cone 2003 Blue cone 2011 Yellow cone