Jeffrey Boyne, NOAA/NWS WFO La Crosse, WI

Transcription

1 Jeffrey Boyne, NOAA/NWS WFO La Crosse, WI Wednesday, May 23, 2018 NOAA's 16th Annual Climate Prediction Applications Science Workshop (CPASW)

2 Trends: Warmer Earlier Spring in the Upper Midwest Climate at Glance

3 Trends: Warmer Earlier Spring in the Upper Midwest Climate at Glance 8 out of 25 warmest March- April have occurred this century. 3 out of 25 coldest March-April have occurred this century.

4 900 Accumulation of Growing Degree Days Based on 42 F for La Crosse, WI 800 Growing Degree Day Accumulation Apr 3-Apr 5-Apr 7-Apr 9-Apr 11-Apr 13-Apr 15-Apr 17-Apr 19-Apr 21-Apr 23-Apr 25-Apr 27-Apr 29-Apr 1-May 3-May 5-May 7-May 9-May 11-May 13-May 15-May 17-May 19-May 21-May 23-May 25-May 27-May 29-May 31-May Avg

5 Critical Temperatures for Apple Tree Frost Damage Bud Loss Silver Tip Green Tip Half-Inch Green 10% 15 F 18 F 23 F 90% 2 F 10 F 15 F Degree Days (DD) Base 42 (McIntosh) References: 1) Michigan Fruit Management Guide ) Critical Temperatures for Frost Damage on Fruit Trees

6 Critical Temperatures for Apple Tree Frost Damage Bud Loss Tight Cluster First Pink (Pink) Full Pink (Open Cluster) 10% 27 F 28 F 28 F 90% 21 F 24 F 25 F Degree Days (DD) Base 42 (McIntosh) References: 1) Michigan Fruit Management Guide ) Critical Temperatures for Frost Damage on Fruit Trees

7 Critical Temperatures for Apple Tree Frost Damage Bud Loss First Bloom (King Bloom) Full Bloom & Post Bloom Petal Fall 10% 28 F 28 F 90% 25 F 25 F Degree Days (DD) Base 42 (McIntosh) References: 1) Michigan Fruit Management Guide ) Critical Temperatures for Frost Damage on Fruit Trees

8 900 Accumulation of Growing Degree Days Based on 42 F for La Crosse, WI Apple bud & blossoms are developing nearly a week earlier than the long-term average Growing Degree Day Accumulation Petal Fall (511 GDD) King Bloom (390 GDD) 0 1-Apr 3-Apr 5-Apr 7-Apr 9-Apr 11-Apr 13-Apr 15-Apr 17-Apr 19-Apr 21-Apr 23-Apr 25-Apr 27-Apr 29-Apr 1-May 3-May 5-May 7-May 9-May 11-May 13-May 15-May 17-May 19-May 21-May 23-May 25-May 27-May 29-May 31-May Tight Cluster (242 GDD) Avg

9 900 Accumulation of Growing Degree Days Based on 42 F for La Crosse, WI Growing Degree Day Accumulation Petal Fall (511 GDD) King Bloom (390 GDD) Tight Cluster (242 GDD) Apr 3-Apr 5-Apr 7-Apr 9-Apr 11-Apr 13-Apr 15-Apr 17-Apr 19-Apr 21-Apr 23-Apr 25-Apr 27-Apr 29-Apr 1-May 3-May 5-May 7-May 9-May 11-May 13-May 15-May 17-May 19-May 21-May 23-May 25-May 27-May 29-May 31-May Axis Title Avg

10 March 2012 Record Warmth State Ranks 15 to 17 F Above Normal Source: NCEI s Climate at a Glance Warmest March in 31 states March 2012 Avg. Temp Contiguous U.S F ( +8.9 F - Warmest) Previous Record 1910 (49.4 F) Mean Anomaly Illinois 55.5 F 39.8 F F Indiana 55.0 F 39.5 F F Iowa 51.6 F 34.6 F F Michigan 44.7 F 29.0 F F Minnesota 41.8 F 25.3 F F North Dakota 40.6 F 24.8 F F South Dakota 47.0 F 30.8 F F Wisconsin 45.6 F 28.3 F F

11 Growing Degree Days (42 F) March 2012 Apple Bud Development Silver Tip 127 Green Tip ½ Green 242 Tight Cluster 284 Full Pink 395 First (King) Bloom 422 Full (Post) Bloom 422 Petal Fall

12 April 2012 A Return to Reality State Ranks Source: NCEI s Climate at a Glance April 2012 Avg. Temp Mean Contiguous U.S F ( +3.6 F 4 th Warmest) Anomaly Illinois 54.6 F 51.5 F +3.1 F Indiana 52.9 F 50.6 F +2.3 F Iowa 52.4 F 48.1 F +4.3 F Michigan 43.9 F 41.9 F +2.0 F Minnesota 45.5 F 41.3 F +4.2 F North Dakota 45.8 F 41.2 F +4.6 F South Dakota 50.2 F 44.7 F +5.5 F Wisconsin 45.1 F 42.6 F +2.5 F

13 April 2012 A Return to Reality March 2012 April 2012 March 2012 Avg. Temp April 2012 Avg. Temp Difference Illinois 55.5 F 54.6 F -0.9 F Indiana 55.0 F 52.9 F -2.1 F Iowa 51.6 F 52.4 F +0.8 F Michigan 44.7 F 43.9 F -0.8 F Minnesota 41.8 F 45.5 F +3.7 F North Dakota 40.6 F 45.8 F +5.2 F South Dakota 47.0 F 50.2 F +3.2 F Wisconsin 45.6 F 45.1 F -0.5 F

14 2012 NWS Central Region (CR) Frost/Freeze Services NWS Central Region Spring Freeze Warnings by Year 137 # of Freeze Warnings

15 2012 NWS Central Region (CR) Frost/Freeze Services Number of Spring Freeze Warnings by NWS Central Region 27 of the 38 NWS CR offices issued at least 1 freeze warning during the Spring of 2018

16 Spring 2012 Freeze Warnings

17 Spring 2012 Freeze Warnings March 26, 2012 April 5-7, 2012 April 10-12, 2012 April 21, 2012 April 23, 2012 April 26-29, 2012

18 NWS La Crosse Apple Orchard Network Minnesota NWS La Crosse Apple Orchard Network Wisconsin 1. Apples on the Avenue Nashua, IA 2. Apple Ridge Orchard Mazeppa, MN 3. Belaire Winery St. Ansgar, IA 4. Cain s Orchard Hixton, WI 5. East View Orchard Fredericksburg, IA 6. Ferguson s Morningside Orchards Galesville, WI 7. Maple Ridge Orchard Cashton, WI 8. NWS La Crosse 9. Pepin Heights Lake City, MN 10. Shefelbein Orchard Holmen, WI 11. Shihata Orchard Prairie du Chien, WI 12. Star Valley Orchards LLC Warrens, WI 13. Starry Ridge Orchard Gays Mills, WI 14. Sunset Orchard Richland Center, WI Iowa Illinois

19 VIP web page link: Frost/Freeze Guidance page link:

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28 Early Season (Mid to Late August) Freeze Mitigation: Planting Different Apple Varieties Mid-Season (September) Late Season (October) Beacon Mid- to late August Chestnut Crabapple Early September Honeycrisp Late September Haralson Late September to early October Snow Sweet Mid-October Centennial Crabapple Mid- to late August State Fair Mid- to late August McIntosh Early to Mid- September Ginger Gold Early to Mid- September Honeygold Late September Gala Mid-September to Early October Frostbite Late September to early October Red Delicious Late September to Early October Keepsake Mid-October Fireside/ Connell Red Mid-October Sweet Tango Mid- to late August Zestar Late August to Early September Red Baron Mid-September Sweet Sixteen Mid- to Late September Regent Early to Mid October Jonathan Early to Mid October Prairie Spy Late-October Denotes apple varieties developed by the University of Minnesota

29 Freeze Mitigation: Planting at Varying Elevations One of the more common freeze mitigation in the Coulee Region is planting apple trees at various elevation levels.

30 Freeze Mitigation: Over-Tree Sprinkler Systems Can provide the highest level of protection. The key to using water is to continually use it to form clear ice. Clear ice means that an endothermic reaction is taking place and the warmth of the plant is being trapped inside it. If the water stops spraying on the clear ice, it goes from being endothermic to exothermic (ice will appear cloudy), and the heat loss and ice will damage the fruit. Water-saving methods do not work. Some growers have attempted to spread overhead water applications by wide spacing of sprinkler heads, cycling of water applications on and off, or misting techniques to reduce the total water supply needs across a block. However, these techniques do not apply adequate water directly to the plant canopy to account for evaporation, and these systems are not recommended because of the high level of risk. Clear ice good! Cloudy ice bad!

31 Freeze Mitigation: Under-Tree Sprinkler Systems Success is influenced by how strong the temperature inversion is and where it is located in the air column, the amount and temperature of the water applied, the volume of air flow through the orchard, the release of latent heat from the freezing of the applied water and the radiant heat from the soil. The air flowing through the orchard can be affected by fans and other measures and can actually rob heat from the water (evaporative cooling) and trees. The combination of over- and under-tree systems work very well with each other as under-tree sprinklers are less likely to have massive heat losses due to air movement.

32 Freeze Mitigation: Frost Fans Originally spawned from airplane propellers in the 1960s can blow your hat off 150 feet away. A single fan can keep frost off trees in a 10-acre circle. Buying & installing a new one can cost as much as $35,000. Used ones are harder to come by but can cut the price in half. Gasoline-powered fans (most run on propane) each cost $60 to $70 an hour to run. A fan that saves 10 acres of fruit can result in $25,000 at harvest.

33 Freeze Mitigation: Helicopters The rotors pull the air down from aloft. The use of helicopters is a last resort kind of measure. The cost is extremely prohibitive and there are many safety and noise factors to take into account. They can cover a large area, up to 40 acres per helicopter, but the cost can quickly reach astronomical levels for a single use. Renting a helicopter can run an average of $1,600 per hour.

34 Freeze Mitigation: Heaters Heat guns, small gas-powered heaters or even the burning of organic materials such as wood or hay have been used for some time with varied success. However, it is one of the least effective frost prevention methods. This is because heat rises, and heaters can t cover a large area. It is more efficient to use many smaller heaters instead of large, central heat sources. It takes anywhere from 40 to 60 heaters per acre to survive a frost event.

35 Questions