2008 Growing Season. Niagara Region
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1 28 Growing Season Niagara Region Weather INnovations Staff November 14, 28
2 Overview The start of the 28 growing season looked promising. After an extremely dry 27 growing season, soil moisture levels had returned to normal by the spring of 28, through winter snowfall and snowmelt. April was warmer than normal, while May temperatures were near-normal. Precipitation levels were also average in the spring of 28. Although June temperatures were also above-average, a change began to take place. Increasing cloud, frequent and often intense rainfall events were a regular occurrence in the region. The number of days with rain, as well as the amount of rainfall, was significantly greater than normal during the summer and fall. In addition, most areas experienced hailstorms at least once this year, with varying levels of intensity; and consequently, varying damage to crops. The worst-hit area was Winona and Grimsby, which experienced a severe hailstorm on July 22, followed by a number of significant rainfall events in July and August. Disease pressure was also higher this year, as a result of these extensive wet periods, in combination with warm temperatures. When it is both warm and very wet, disease progress is rapid. As the growing season drew to a close, grapes had difficulty maturing, particularly the early varieties. A number of consecutive cool, wet weeks occurred during the harvest season, making drying conditions very poor and slowing the maturation process. All of these conditions negatively influenced much of the grape production in the Niagara Region in 28. The graphics presented in this report illustrate the following details: higher rainfall, lower heat accumulation, lower solar energy and higher than average disease pressures. These influences create challenges for growers and wineries. The Number of Days from Apr-Oct Where Tmax was Greater Than 3 C Number of Days N/A Winona Grimsby Beamsville Vineland Cherry Ave. Vineland Escarpment Jordan Hwy 8 Jordan Escarpment West St. Catharines Niagara College Virgil Lakeshore Parkway Queenston Year Avg. 2
3 Temperature and Growing Degree Days Noteworthy in 28 is the above-average temperatures that occurred in April. May temperatures were close to normal, while June was slightly above-normal. July through October consisted of near-normal temperatures during the day, but cooler than average at night. The number of days that reached 3 C or greater in 28, is in sharp contrast compared to the number noted last year. Much fewer of these days occurred during the 28 growing season. As shown in the following graphs, accumulated growing degree days were actually higher in April 28 than in April 27. After a slightly cooler May, growing degree days accumulated at a similar rate to last year. A significant difference to last year is visible beginning mid-september. While the upward trend continued through the fall months in 27, the accumulation of growing degree days levelled off in 28. The total accumulation of base 1 C chart illustrates the significant drop in heat units, as compared to the previous year, as well as the normal. This shortened growing season explains the problems that arose in the maturation process. Average Daily Maximums for April - October Compared to Normal Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Normal (Vineland Stn) Winona Grimsby Beamsville Vineland Cherry Ave Vineland Escarpment Jordan Hwy Jordan Escarpment West St. Catharines Niagara College Virgil Lakeshore Parkway Queenston Normal Above-normal Below-normal 3
4 28 Accumulated Base 1 C Growing Degree Days Compared to 27 GDD Vineland 27 Virgil 27 Vineland 28 Virgil Apr-1 Apr-15 Apr-29 May-13 May-27 Jun-1 Jun-24 Jul-8 Jul-22 Aug-5 Aug-19 Sep-2 Sep-16 Sep-3 Oct-14 Oct-28 Average Daily Minimums for April - October Compared to Normal Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Normal (Vineland Stn) Winona Grimsby Beamsville Vineland Cherry Ave Vineland Escarpment Jordan Hwy Jordan Escarpment West St. Catharines Niagara College Virgil Lakeshore Parkway Queenston Normal Above-normal Below-normal 4
5 Seasonal Accumulation of Base 1 C GDD (April 1 - October 31) GDD Winona Grimsby Beamsville Vineland Cherry Ave. Vineland Escarpment Jordan Hwy 8 Jordan Escarpment West St. Catharines Niagara College Virgil Lakeshore Parkway Queenston Normal Total Precipitation: This season will also be remembered for the frequency and number of rainfall events. Although monthly totals may not appear to be significantly different than normal, there are notable differences that can be seen. The following graph shows much larger amounts of monthly rainfall in June and July. In addition, the extreme rainfall events that occurred in the western portions of Niagara can be clearly seen in the months of July and August. Most stations reported above-normal rainfall conditions in 28. Although the increase in 28 precipitation at some Niagara locations was not as dramatic as in other areas, it is important to remember that it is not only the amount of rainfall that causes issues, but the number of days of precipitation as well. The charts for number of days with rain and accumulative rainfall clearly explain why we remember this growing season as being wet, as well as the disease and production challenges faced at numerous locations this year. The number of days of rain is an indicator of production challenges. Frequent rains make fungicide application for the protection of grape quality more difficult. All stations experienced a higher-thannormal number of precipitation events. The following graphics illustrate this growing season s precipitation in a variety of ways, in order to give a better understanding of the issues faced this year. A rainy day was considered to be any day with more than.2mm of precipitation, for the graph number of days with rain. 5
6 Total Accumulated Rainfall per Month Compared to Normal (April 1 - October 31, 28) 8 Rainfall (mm) October September August July June May April 1 Winona Grimsby Beamsville Vineland Cherry Ave. Vineland Escarpment Jordan Hwy 8 Jordan Escarpment West St. Catharines Niagara College Virgil Lakeshore Parkway Queenston Normal Seasonal Rainfall Variation from the 3-year Normal (April 1 - October 31) Rainfall (mm) N/A Winona Grimsby Beamsville Vineland Cherry Ave. Vineland Escarpment Jordan Hwy 8 Jordan Escarpment West St. Catharines Niagara College Virgil Lakeshore Parkway Queenston
7 Accumulative Rainfall Compared to the 3 Year Normal 7 Winona 6 Grimsby Beamsville Rainfall (mm) Vineland Cherry Ave Vineland Escarpment Jordan Hwy 8 Jordan Escarpment West St. Catharines Niagara College 2 Virgil 1 Lakeshore Parkway Apr-1 Apr-15 Apr-29 May-13 May-27 Jun-1 Jun-24 Jul-8 Jul-22 Aug-5 Aug-19 Sep-2 Sep-16 Sep-3 Oct-14 Oct-28 Queenston Normal Number of Days with Rain from April 1 - October 31, 28 (Total Period of Days = 214) Number of Days Winona Grimsby Beamsville Vineland Cherry Ave. Vineland Escarpment Jordan Hwy 8 Jordan Escarpment West St. Catharines Niagara College Virgil Lakeshore Parkway Queenston 28 Normal 7
8 8
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10 Combined Effects: This graphic illustrates in a single view the combined deviations of GDD and precipitation for 28, relative to the 3 year normal values. Consecutive 1 day snapshots are represented with bar graphs representation. A perfectly normal year would have no bars at all no deviations! When a bar is above the base line it represents a surplus and below represents it represents a deficit. It is easy to see and count consecutive 1 day periods where precipitation is surplus and heat is deficit. Extensive wet periods favour disease development. When it is both warm and very wet, disease progress is rapid. If it is significantly wet when it is cool, drying conditions are very poor. Consecutive cool periods would delay maturity. A close examination of this graphic illustrates the combined challenges of wetness and temperature. 28: Grimsby Growing Degree Days (Base 1 C) and the Number of Days with Rain >=.2mm Compared to the 3 Year Normal GDD GDD Deviation # of Days with Rain >=.2mm Deviation -3 Apr 1-1 Apr 11-2 Bal of Apr May 1-1 May 11-2 Bal of May Jun 1-1 June 11-2 Bal of Jun Jul 1-1 Jul 11-2 Bal of Jul Aug 1-1 Aug 11-2 Bal of Aug Sep 1-1 Sep 11-2 Bal of Sep Oct 1-1 Oct 11-2 Bal of Oct Solar Radiation: Solar energy has a significant effect on fruit composition; impacting sugar levels and water content of grapes. In addition, shaded conditions encourage mycelial growth (powdery mildew). A comparison of the solar radiation energy in Niagara between 27 and 28 illustrates the significant difference between a sunny year and a cloudy year. The four extended periods of less energy accumulation in 28 compared to 27 are calculated and shown below. 1
11 Niagara - Solar Radiation Comparison Solar rad (KJ m -2 day -1 ) Ap 1-5 Ap 6-1 Ap Ap 16-2 Ap Ap 26-3 Ma 1-5 Ma 6-1 Ma Ma 16-2 Ma Ma Jn 1-5 Jn 6-1 Jn Jn 16-2 Jn Jn 26-3 Jl 1-5 Jl 6-1 Jl Jl 16-2 Jl Jl Au 1-5 Au 6-1 Au Au 16-2 Au Au Se 1-5 Se 6-1 Se Se 16-2 Se Se 26-3 Five-day Period Disease Pressure: The Grape Disease Severity Values (DSV) is a monitored risk index of disease pressure in the vineyards. Grape DSV was especially high in 28, in contrast to 27. There appear to be several hot spots south of Grimsby and around west St. Catharines. A wedge of high DSV is observed through Virgil towards NOTL Parkway. The lightest DSV in 28 occurred in the Vineland Cherry Ave. and the Niagara College/Queenston areas. Please note the contrast between the 27 year with lower DSV and 28 with higher DSV. DSV index numbers were published on the Niagara web interface in 28 so growers can become accustomed to this risk index. 11
12 Conclusion: The 28 growing season can be summarized by the following details: higher precipitation, lower heat accumulation, lower solar energy and higher than average disease pressures. The turning point for most locations took place in July, with a significant increase in precipitation and in frequency of precipitation events. Cooler and cloudier conditions during the fall shortened the growing season. All of these events led to another challenging growing season. 12
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