Analysis of the dynamics of extreme rainfall events in summer in southern Uruguay
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1 Analysis of the dynamics of extreme rainfall events in summer in southern Uruguay Matilde Ungerovich and Marcelo Barreiro UdelaR, Montevideo 8 May 2018
2 When I say Uruguay
3 When I say Uruguay When I say southern
4 When I say Uruguay When I say southern
5 When I say Uruguay When I say extreme: days in which the accumulated exceeds 90 percentile When I say southern
6 Objective of this investigation
7 Objective of this investigation Understand the main characteristics and atmospheric patterns that influence the extreme events of rainfall in summer in southern Uruguay
8 Motivation
9 Motivation Uruguay is an agricultural country, whose economy is greatly affected by the accumulation and distribution of rainfall
10 Motivation Uruguay is an agricultural country, whose economy is greatly affected by the accumulation and distribution of rainfall Extreme rainfall events generate social damages such as population displacement and road closures
11 Motivation Uruguay is an agricultural country, whose economy is greatly affected by the accumulation and distribution of rainfall Extreme rainfall events generate social damages such as population displacement and road closures There is no investigation on extreme rainfall events in Uruguay
12 Motivation Uruguay is an agricultural country, whose economy is greatly affected by the accumulation and distribution of rainfall Extreme rainfall events generate social damages such as population displacement and road closures There is no investigation on extreme rainfall events in Uruguay Accumulated rainfall in extreme events %
13 Data
14 Data Daily data, period
15 Data Daily data, period Observational accumulated rainfall in 15 pluviometers
16 Data Daily data, period Observational accumulated rainfall in 15 pluviometers NCEP reanalysis o x2.5 o : geopotential height, wind, temperature, latent heat
17 Methodology
18 Methodology EOF to classify the extreme events in different categories
19 Methodology EOF to classify the extreme events in different categories Composite analysis to study the dynamics (90% significance)
20 EOF- empirical orthogonal function
21 EOF- empirical orthogonal function The EOF was calculated considering 2m temperature
22 EOF- empirical orthogonal function The EOF was calculated considering 2m temperature They repesent 48% and 17% of variability EOF1 EOF Longitud [ ] Longitud [ ]
23 EOF- empirical orthogonal function The EOF was calculated considering 2m temperature They repesent 48% and 17% of variability EOF1 EOF Longitud [ ] Longitud [ ] EOF 1: temperature anomaly that leads to atmospheric (in)stability
24 EOF- empirical orthogonal function The EOF was calculated considering 2m temperature They repesent 48% and 17% of variability EOF1 EOF Longitud [ ] Longitud [ ] EOF 1: temperature anomaly that leads to atmospheric (in)stability EOF 2: temperature gradient associated with frontal activity
25 EOF- empirical orthogonal function
26 EOF- empirical orthogonal function We separated into different groups, considering each s extreme day value in First and Second Principal component(cp)
27 EOF- empirical orthogonal function We separated into different groups, considering each s extreme day value in First and Second Principal component(cp) PC1 PC2 clúster Rojo clúster azul clúster violeta 1 and 2 sd
28 Red group (PC1 +, PC2 +)
29 Red group (PC1 +, PC2 +) EOF1 EOF Longitud [ ] Longitud [ ] Atmospheric instability + Frontal activity
30 Red group (PC1 +, PC2 +) 2 metre temperature anomaly
31 Red group (PC1 +, PC2 +) 2 metre temperature anomaly Anom P90_Grupo7, día 0, T2m Anom P90_Grupo7, día 1, T2m Anom P90_Grupo7, día 2, T2m Longitud [ ] Figure 1: Day 0, Day -1, Day -2 Longitud Longitud [ ] [ ] Stationary positive temperature anomaly generating atmospheric instability
32 Red group (PC1 +, PC2 +) 1000 hpa geopotential anomaly
33 Red group (PC1 +, PC2 +) 1000 hpa geopotential anomaly Anomalía de Geopotencial, 1000hPa, día 0 Anomalía de Geopotencial, 1000hPa, día 1 Anomalía de Geopotencial, 1000hPa, día Longitud [ ] Figure 2: Day 0, Day -1, Day -2 Longitud [ ] Longitud [ ] Surface low pressure approaching, and reaches Uruguay the day 0
34 Red group (PC1 +, PC2 +) Frontal Index anomaly
35 Red group (PC1 +, PC2 +) Frontal Index anomaly Solman & Orlanski, 2010 : T 850 x ξ 850 (1) Anomalía de IF, día 0 Anomalía de IF, día 1 Anomalía de IF, día Longitud [ ] Figure 3: Day 0, Day -1, Day -2 Longitud [ ] Longitud [ ] Cold front approaching from the south
36 Red group (PC1 +, PC2 +) Latent heat anomaly, OLR anomaly
37 Red group (PC1 +, PC2 +) Latent heat anomaly, OLR anomaly Anom P90_Grupo7, día 0,Latent Flux Anom P90, día +1, OLR Longitud [ ] longitud [ ] Figure 4: Day 0, Day 0 Negative latent flux anomaly, indicating evaporation Negative OLR, indicating rainfall in all the country
38 Red group (PC1 +, PC2 +) Why does it rain?
39 Red group (PC1 +, PC2 +) Why does it rain? Atmospheric instability due to positive temperature anomaly
40 Red group (PC1 +, PC2 +) Why does it rain? Atmospheric instability due to positive temperature anomaly Surface low pressure generating upward movement and condensation
41 Red group (PC1 +, PC2 +) Why does it rain? Atmospheric instability due to positive temperature anomaly Surface low pressure generating upward movement and condensation Even more humidity due to evaporation
42 Red group (PC1 +, PC2 +) Why does it rain? Atmospheric instability due to positive temperature anomaly Surface low pressure generating upward movement and condensation Even more humidity due to evaporation Frontal activity triggers the extreme rainfall event
43 Blue group (PC1 +, PC2 -)
44 Blue group (PC1 +, PC2 -) EOF1 EOF Longitud [ ] Atmospheric instability Longitud [ ]
45 Blue group (PC1 +, PC2 -) 200 hpa geopotential height anomaly
46 Blue group (PC1 +, PC2 -) 200 hpa geopotential height anomaly Anomalía de Geopotencial, 200hPa, día 0 Anomalía de Geopotencial, 200hPa, día 1 Anomalía de Geopotencial, 200hPa, día Longitud [ ] Figure 5: Day 0, Day -1, Day -2 Longitud Longitud [ ] [ ] Stationary wave
47 Blue group (PC1 +, PC2 -) 1000 hpa geopotential height anomaly
48 Blue group (PC1 +, PC2 -) 1000 hpa geopotential height anomaly Anomalía de Geopotencial, 1000hPa, día 0 Anomalía de Geopotencial, 1000hPa, día 1 Anomalía de Geopotencial, 1000hPa, día Longitud [ ] Figure 6: Day 0, Day -1, Day -2 Longitud [ ] Longitud [ ] Blocking situation, caused by the stationary wave generating clear skies and preventing cold fronts from reaching the area
49 Blue group (PC1 +, PC2 -) 2 metre temperature anomaly
50 Blue group (PC1 +, PC2 -) 2 metre temperature anomaly Anom P90_Grupo8, día 0, T2m Anom P90_Grupo8, día 1, T2m Anom P90_Grupo8, día 2, T2m Longitud [ ] Figure 7: Day 0, Day -1, Day -2 Longitud Longitud [ ] [ ] Positive temperature anomaly intensifying in the west of Uruguay
51 Blue group (PC1 +, PC2 -) Heat flux anomaly
52 Blue group (PC1 +, PC2 -) Heat flux anomaly Anom P90_Grupo8, día 0,Latent Flux Anom P90_Grupo8, día 1,Latent Flux Anom P90_Grupo8, día 2,Latent Flux Longitud [ ] Figure 8: Day 0, Day -1, Day -2 Longitud Longitud [ ] [ ] Heat transfer to the atmosphere, due to the clear sky, destabilizing the boundary layer
53 Blue group (PC1 +, PC2 -) OLR anomaly
54 Blue group (PC1 +, PC2 -) OLR anomaly Anom P90, día +1, OLR Anom P90, día 0, OLR longitud [ ] longitud [ ] Figure 9: Day 0, Day -1 Negative OLR anomaly in the west that approaches and instensifies
55 Blue group (PC1 +, PC2 -) Why does it rain?
56 Blue group (PC1 +, PC2 -) Why does it rain? Stationary wave associated with blocking episode
57 Blue group (PC1 +, PC2 -) Why does it rain? Stationary wave associated with blocking episode High surface pressure favouring positive temperature anomalies and boundary layer destabilization
58 Blue group (PC1 +, PC2 -) Why does it rain? Stationary wave associated with blocking episode High surface pressure favouring positive temperature anomalies and boundary layer destabilization Positive temperature anomalies in the west of Uruguay, generating atmospheric instability
59 Blue group (PC1 +, PC2 -) Why does it rain? Stationary wave associated with blocking episode High surface pressure favouring positive temperature anomalies and boundary layer destabilization Positive temperature anomalies in the west of Uruguay, generating atmospheric instability Deep convective activity in the west of Uruguay that reaches the area
60 Violet group (PC1 -, PC2 +)
61 Violet group (PC1 -, PC2 +) EOF1 EOF Longitud [ ] Longitud [ ] Frontal activity
62 Violet group (PC1 -, PC2 +) 200 hpa geopotential divergence
63 Violet group (PC1 -, PC2 +) 200 hpa geopotential divergence 200hPa P90_Grupo9_B, Anom Div, Día 0 200hPa P90_Grupo9_B, Anom Div, Día 1 200hPa P90_Grupo9_B, Anom Div, Día Longitud [ ] Figure 10: Day 0, Day -1, Day -2 Longitud [ ] Longitud [ ] Positive divergence favouring upward movements
64 Violet group (PC1 -, PC2 +) 1000 hpa geopotential height anomaly
65 Violet group (PC1 -, PC2 +) 1000 hpa geopotential height anomaly Anomalía de Geopotencial, 1000hPa, día 0 Anomalía de Geopotencial, 1000hPa, día 1 Anomalía de Geopotencial, 1000hPa, día Longitud [ ] Figure 11: Day 0, Day -1, Day -2 Longitud [ ] Longitud [ ] Low pressure favouring upward movement
66 Violet group (PC1 -, PC2 +) 850 hpa divergence
67 Violet group (PC1 -, PC2 +) 850 hpa divergence 850hPa P90_Grupo9_B, Anom Div, Día 0 850hPa P90_Grupo9_B, Anom Div, Día 1 850hPa P90_Grupo9_B, Anom Div, Día Longitud [ ] Figure 12: Day 0, Day -1, Day -2 Longitud [ ] Longitud [ ] Negative divergence, indicating humidity advection
68 Violet group (PC1 -, PC2 +) OLR anomaly
69 Violet group (PC1 -, PC2 +) OLR anomaly Anom P90, día +1, OLR Anom P90, día 0, OLR Anom P90, día 1, OLR longitud [ ] Figure 13: Day 0, Day -1, Day -2 longitud [ ] longitud [ ] Negative OLR anomaly, indicating rainfall
70 Violet group (PC1 -, PC2 +) Why does it rain?
71 Violet group (PC1 -, PC2 +) Why does it rain? 200 hpa divergence favouring upward movements
72 Violet group (PC1 -, PC2 +) Why does it rain? 200 hpa divergence favouring upward movements Low surface pressure favouring upward movements
73 Violet group (PC1 -, PC2 +) Why does it rain? 200 hpa divergence favouring upward movements Low surface pressure favouring upward movements Humidity advection
74 Conclusions We clasified the extreme rainfall events in 3 categories according to their 2 metre temperature configurations
75 Conclusions We clasified the extreme rainfall events in 3 categories according to their 2 metre temperature configurations Red extremes are characterized by a combination of atmospheric instability, evaporation and frontal activity in Uruguay
76 Conclusions We clasified the extreme rainfall events in 3 categories according to their 2 metre temperature configurations Red extremes are characterized by a combination of atmospheric instability, evaporation and frontal activity in Uruguay Blue extremes are characterized by a instable boundary layer in Uruguay and deep convective activity approaching from the west
77 Conclusions We clasified the extreme rainfall events in 3 categories according to their 2 metre temperature configurations Red extremes are characterized by a combination of atmospheric instability, evaporation and frontal activity in Uruguay Blue extremes are characterized by a instable boundary layer in Uruguay and deep convective activity approaching from the west Violet extremes are characterized by a combination of low surface pressure and humidity advection
78 Final conclusion We were able to achieve the objective
79 Final conclusion We were able to achieve the objective Questions? Suggestions?
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