SIMULATION AND PREDICTION OF SUMMER MONSOON CLIMATE OVER THE INDOCHINA PENINSULA BY RSM

Size: px
Start display at page:

Download "SIMULATION AND PREDICTION OF SUMMER MONSOON CLIMATE OVER THE INDOCHINA PENINSULA BY RSM"

Transcription

1 2017 ACTS Workshop on Extreme Weather Forecast and Water Resources Management SIMULATION AND PREDICTION OF SUMMER MONSOON CLIMATE OVER THE INDOCHINA PENINSULA BY RSM Presenter: Nguyen Ngoc Bich Phuong Hanoi, 26/9/2017

2 INTRODUCTION - The Asia summer monsoon is the most complex and characterized by various monsoon systems (Wang and Lin 2002). - Impact of ENSO on ASM - The Indo-china Peninsula The purpose of this study is to examine the performance of Regional Spectral Model (RSM) model in predicting summer monsoon over the Indochina Peninsula (ICP)

3 DATA AND METHODOLOGY RSM We use the Regional Spectral Model (RSM), which is a non-hydrostatic dynamics RCM, based on the structure of the NCEP Global Spectral Model. Physical parameterizations Long-wave radiation scheme Mlawer et.at.1997 Short-wave radiation scheme The parameterization for deep convection Chou and Suarez,1999. Hou et al, 2002 Pan và Wu 1994, Grell, 1993 Noah land surface model Pan and Mahrt, 1987 Planetary boundary layer processes Troen and Mahrt,1986

4 DATA AND METHODOLOGY RSM Model We use the Regional Spectral Model (RSM), which is a non-hydrostatic dynamics RCM, based on the structure of the NCEP Global Spectral Model. - A horizontal resolution of 26 km - Cover Indochina Peninsula (ICP) - The number of grid points in Cartesian coordinates is 144 (west east) and 144 (north south) - The domain size is 95E 120E and EQ 25N

5 DATA AND METHODOLOGY Data Climate Forecast System (CFS) Reforecast - Initial and boundary condition for RSM model - The data were acquired for 6-month re-forecast beginning at March, April, May, and June for three years 1983 (El-Nino), 1984 (non-enso) and 1985 (La Nina). Observation data - APHRODITE data (0.25 ) - Vietnam Gridded Precipitation (VnGP) Dataset data (481 rain gauges, 0.25 ) - CFS reanalysis (CFSR)

6 Methodology DATA AND METHODOLOGY In this study, we have re-forecasted the summers (JJA) in El Niño (1983), La Niña (1984) and non-enso (1985) condition with 01-month leading forecast. - Empirical orthogonal function EOF analysis (EOF1 and EOF2) detect factors that impact on rainfall regime over this area. x k M m=1 e km u m, k = 1,, K, x k = x k x m: principal component e m : eigenvector u m: linear combination of x - Latitude time outgoing long wave radiation (latitude time OLR) identify the onset of summer monsoon over ICP region. OLR xt = Y y=1 OLR xyt - Average U wind ( E, 5 15N) at 850 mb identify the onset of summer monsoon over ICP region. u t = X Y u xyt x=1 y=1

7 Geopotential height (m) and wind (m/s) 500mb RESULT AND DISCUSS RSM Summer El Niño Summer - ENSO-neutral Summer La Niña - El Nino condition leads to increase the GH increase T over the region - Wind speed seems not change in ENSO summer, but wind in non- ENSO seems weaker.

8 Geopotential height (m) and wind (m/s) 500mb Summer El Niño RESULT AND DISCUSS RSM 26 km CFS reforecast 100 km - Wind speed and direction of RSM are consist with the ones of CFS reforecast - However, RSM geopotential height values are greater of about 10 m

9 Geopotential height (m) and wind (m/s) 500mb Summer La Niña RESULT AND DISCUSS RSM 26km CFS reforecast 100 km - Wind speed and direction of RSM are consist with the ones of CFS reforecast - However, RSM geopotential height values are greater of about 10 m

10 Geopotential height (m) RESULT AND DISCUSS 850mb Summer El Niño Summer - ENSO-neutral Summer La Niña RSM CFS

11 Air temperature ( 0 C) RESULT AND DISCUSS 500mb Summer El Niño Summer - ENSO-neutral Summer La Niña RSM CFS

12 RESULT AND DISCUSS 850mb Air temperature ( 0 C) Summer El Niño Summer - ENSO-neutral Summer La Niña RSM CFS

13 RESULT AND DISCUSS Air temperature ( 0 C) Surface Summer El Niño Summer - ENSO-neutral Summer La Niña RSM APH

14 Total precipitation in summer (mm) RESULT AND DISCUSS Summer El Niño RSM APH VnGP - Rainfall amount in RSM is lesser than observation of about 200 mm, especially in coastal line and over Thailand, Myanmar

15 Precipitation (mm) Summer El Niño RESULT AND DISCUSS Summer - ENSO-neutral Summer La Niña RSM APH VnGP

16 RESULT AND DISCUSS Eigenvector patterns of two leading EOF modes of daily rainfall over ICP Summer El Niño Summer - ENSO-neutral Summer La Niña EOF1 EOF2

17 Jun. Nov. May Oct. Apr. Sep. Summer El Niño RESULT AND DISCUSS Outgoing Long-wave Radiation (OLR) (W/m 2 ) Summer -non ENSO Summer La Niña

18 RESULT AND DISCUSS RSM El Nino La Nina Non- ENSO

19 CONCLUSION Climate variables at 500, 850 mb and surface in summer of ENSO and non-enso condition derived from RSM model has been evaluated. RSM can capture the signals of the impact of ENSO on climate system over the ICP region. RSM does not simulate rainfall well; the rainfall of the model is lower than the observation about mm in three summer months. However, the distribution of rainfall is consistent with the observation However, this study only uses the RSM simulations in three summers. Therefore the results are not comprehensive and highly reliable. More assessment for this model is necessary.

20

Seasonal Climate Outlook for South Asia (June to September) Issued in May 2014

Seasonal Climate Outlook for South Asia (June to September) Issued in May 2014 Ministry of Earth Sciences Earth System Science Organization India Meteorological Department WMO Regional Climate Centre (Demonstration Phase) Pune, India Seasonal Climate Outlook for South Asia (June

More information

Thai Meteorological Department, Ministry of Digital Economy and Society

Thai Meteorological Department, Ministry of Digital Economy and Society Thai Meteorological Department, Ministry of Digital Economy and Society Three-month Climate Outlook For November 2017 January 2018 Issued on 31 October 2017 -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

More information

Rainfall variability over the Indochina peninsula during the Boreal Winter, Part I: Preliminary data analysis

Rainfall variability over the Indochina peninsula during the Boreal Winter, Part I: Preliminary data analysis Rainfall variability over the Indochina peninsula during the Boreal Winter, Part I: Preliminary data analysis Sirapong Sooktawee*, sirapong@deqp.go.th; Atsamon Limsakul, atsamon@deqp.go.th, Environmental

More information

Effects Of Aerosols On Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall During El Niño

Effects Of Aerosols On Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall During El Niño International Workshop on Atmospheric Composition and the Asian Summer Monsoon Bangkok 8th-10th June 2015 Effects Of On Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall During El Niño Suvarna Fadnavis, CHAITRI ROY, Ashok

More information

Influence of the Western Pacific Subtropical High on summertime ozone variability in East China

Influence of the Western Pacific Subtropical High on summertime ozone variability in East China Influence of the Western Pacific Subtropical High on summertime ozone variability in East China Zijian Zhao 1 and Yuxuan Wang 1,2 1 Dept. Earth System Sciences, Tsinghua University, China 2 Dept. Earth

More information

On the presence of tropical vortices over the Southeast Asian Sea- Maritime Continent region

On the presence of tropical vortices over the Southeast Asian Sea- Maritime Continent region Technical Conference of 50 th Annual Session of Typhoon Committee 2018 On the presence of tropical vortices over the Southeast Asian Sea- Maritime Continent region Nguyen Dang-Quang 1, James Renwick 2,

More information

Long Range Forecasts of 2015 SW and NE Monsoons and its Verification D. S. Pai Climate Division, IMD, Pune

Long Range Forecasts of 2015 SW and NE Monsoons and its Verification D. S. Pai Climate Division, IMD, Pune Long Range Forecasts of 2015 SW and NE Monsoons and its Verification D. S. Pai Climate Division, IMD, Pune Other Contributors: Soma Sen Roy, O. P. Sreejith, Kailas, Madhuri, Pallavi, Mahendra and Jasmine

More information

Variations of the Asian Monsoon and Simulations and Predictions by the NCEP CFS Song Yang

Variations of the Asian Monsoon and Simulations and Predictions by the NCEP CFS Song Yang Variations of the Asian Monsoon and Simulations and Predictions by the NCEP CFS Song Yang NOAA Climate Prediction Center, Camp Springs, Maryland, USA Song.Yang@noaa.gov Contents, Coauthors, and References

More information

Using Reanalysis SST Data for Establishing Extreme Drought and Rainfall Predicting Schemes in the Southern Central Vietnam

Using Reanalysis SST Data for Establishing Extreme Drought and Rainfall Predicting Schemes in the Southern Central Vietnam Using Reanalysis SST Data for Establishing Extreme Drought and Rainfall Predicting Schemes in the Southern Central Vietnam Dr. Nguyen Duc Hau 1, Dr. Nguyen Thi Minh Phuong 2 National Center For Hydrometeorological

More information

MODELING EAST ASIAN SUMMER MONSOON IN 1998 WITH A COUPLED REGIONAL AIR-SEA MODEL. Xuejuan Ren

MODELING EAST ASIAN SUMMER MONSOON IN 1998 WITH A COUPLED REGIONAL AIR-SEA MODEL. Xuejuan Ren INYS 2008 MODELING EAST ASIAN SUMMER MONSOON IN 1998 WITH A COUPLED REGIONAL AIR-SEA MODEL Xuejuan Ren Yaocun Zhang, Yongfu Qian, Huijuan Lin Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Nanjing University, Nanjing,

More information

UPDATE OF REGIONAL WEATHER AND SMOKE HAZE (December 2017)

UPDATE OF REGIONAL WEATHER AND SMOKE HAZE (December 2017) UPDATE OF REGIONAL WEATHER AND SMOKE HAZE (December 2017) 1. Review of Regional Weather Conditions for November 2017 1.1 In November 2017, Southeast Asia experienced inter-monsoon conditions in the first

More information

UPDATE OF REGIONAL WEATHER AND SMOKE HAZE (February 2018)

UPDATE OF REGIONAL WEATHER AND SMOKE HAZE (February 2018) UPDATE OF REGIONAL WEATHER AND SMOKE HAZE (February 2018) 1. Review of Regional Weather Conditions for January 2018 1.1 The prevailing Northeast monsoon conditions over Southeast Asia strengthened in January

More information

IAP Dynamical Seasonal Prediction System and its applications

IAP Dynamical Seasonal Prediction System and its applications WCRP Workshop on Seasonal Prediction 4-7 June 2007, Barcelona, Spain IAP Dynamical Seasonal Prediction System and its applications Zhaohui LIN Zhou Guangqing Chen Hong Qin Zhengkun Zeng Qingcun Institute

More information

Atmospheric circulation analysis for seasonal forecasting

Atmospheric circulation analysis for seasonal forecasting Training Seminar on Application of Seasonal Forecast GPV Data to Seasonal Forecast Products 18 21 January 2011 Tokyo, Japan Atmospheric circulation analysis for seasonal forecasting Shotaro Tanaka Climate

More information

Diagnosing the Climatology and Interannual Variability of North American Summer Climate with the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS)

Diagnosing the Climatology and Interannual Variability of North American Summer Climate with the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS) Diagnosing the Climatology and Interannual Variability of North American Summer Climate with the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS) Christopher L. Castro and Roger A. Pielke, Sr. Department of

More information

ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions. Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP July 26, 2004

ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions. Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP July 26, 2004 ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP July 26, 2004 Outline Overview Recent Evolution and Current Conditions Oceanic NiZo Index

More information

El Niño, South American Monsoon, and Atlantic Niño links as detected by a. TOPEX/Jason Observations

El Niño, South American Monsoon, and Atlantic Niño links as detected by a. TOPEX/Jason Observations El Niño, South American Monsoon, and Atlantic Niño links as detected by a decade of QuikSCAT, TRMM and TOPEX/Jason Observations Rong Fu 1, Lei Huang 1, Hui Wang 2, Paola Arias 1 1 Jackson School of Geosciences,

More information

ENSO Outlook by JMA. Hiroyuki Sugimoto. El Niño Monitoring and Prediction Group Climate Prediction Division Japan Meteorological Agency

ENSO Outlook by JMA. Hiroyuki Sugimoto. El Niño Monitoring and Prediction Group Climate Prediction Division Japan Meteorological Agency ENSO Outlook by JMA Hiroyuki Sugimoto El Niño Monitoring and Prediction Group Climate Prediction Division Outline 1. ENSO impacts on the climate 2. Current Conditions 3. Prediction by JMA/MRI-CGCM 4. Summary

More information

京都大学防災研究所年報第 49 号 B 平成 18 年 4 月. Annuals of Disas. Prev. Res. Inst., Kyoto Univ., No. 49 B,

京都大学防災研究所年報第 49 号 B 平成 18 年 4 月. Annuals of Disas. Prev. Res. Inst., Kyoto Univ., No. 49 B, 京都大学防災研究所年報第 49 号 B 平成 18 年 4 月 Annuals of Disas. Prev. Res. Inst., Kyoto Univ., No. 49 B, 2006 170 1978 2003 26 30-60 10-20 :. 10 60 (Krishnamurti and Bhalme, 1976; Hartmann and Michelsen, 1989 )Hartmann

More information

The Experimental Climate Prediction Center (ECPC) s Regional Spectral Model

The Experimental Climate Prediction Center (ECPC) s Regional Spectral Model The Experimental Climate Prediction Center (ECPC) s Regional Spectral Model Ana Nunes and John Roads* ECPC Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, San Diego, La Jolla, CA, USA 1

More information

2013 Summer Weather Outlook. Temperatures, Precipitation, Drought, Hurricanes and why we care

2013 Summer Weather Outlook. Temperatures, Precipitation, Drought, Hurricanes and why we care 2013 Summer Weather Outlook Temperatures, Precipitation, Drought, Hurricanes and why we care Role of the ERCOT Meteorologist Forecasts Develop temperature input for hourly load forecasts (next day, days

More information

UPDATE OF REGIONAL WEATHER AND SMOKE HAZE April 2016

UPDATE OF REGIONAL WEATHER AND SMOKE HAZE April 2016 UPDATE OF REGIONAL WEATHER AND SMOKE HAZE April 2016 1. Review of Regional Weather Conditions in March 2016 1.1 Weak Northeast Monsoon conditions prevailed in March 2016 with winds that were. Light and

More information

UPDATE OF REGIONAL WEATHER AND SMOKE HAZE (May 2017)

UPDATE OF REGIONAL WEATHER AND SMOKE HAZE (May 2017) UPDATE OF REGIONAL WEATHER AND SMOKE HAZE (May 2017) 1. Review of Regional Weather Conditions in April 2017 1.1 Inter monsoon conditions, characterised by afternoon showers and winds that are generally

More information

Seasonal Climate Watch April to August 2018

Seasonal Climate Watch April to August 2018 Seasonal Climate Watch April to August 2018 Date issued: Mar 23, 2018 1. Overview The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is expected to weaken from a moderate La Niña phase to a neutral phase through

More information

Verification of the Seasonal Forecast for the 2005/06 Winter

Verification of the Seasonal Forecast for the 2005/06 Winter Verification of the Seasonal Forecast for the 2005/06 Winter Shingo Yamada Tokyo Climate Center Japan Meteorological Agency 2006/11/02 7 th Joint Meeting on EAWM Contents 1. Verification of the Seasonal

More information

Multiple Ocean Analysis Initialization for Ensemble ENSO Prediction using NCEP CFSv2

Multiple Ocean Analysis Initialization for Ensemble ENSO Prediction using NCEP CFSv2 Multiple Ocean Analysis Initialization for Ensemble ENSO Prediction using NCEP CFSv2 B. Huang 1,2, J. Zhu 1, L. Marx 1, J. L. Kinter 1,2 1 Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies 2 Department of Atmospheric,

More information

CHAPTER 2 DATA AND METHODS. Errors using inadequate data are much less than those using no data at all. Charles Babbage, circa 1850

CHAPTER 2 DATA AND METHODS. Errors using inadequate data are much less than those using no data at all. Charles Babbage, circa 1850 CHAPTER 2 DATA AND METHODS Errors using inadequate data are much less than those using no data at all. Charles Babbage, circa 185 2.1 Datasets 2.1.1 OLR The primary data used in this study are the outgoing

More information

ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions. Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 23 April 2012

ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions. Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 23 April 2012 ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 23 April 2012 Outline Overview Recent Evolution and Current Conditions Oceanic Niño Index

More information

UPDATE OF REGIONAL WEATHER AND SMOKE HAZE (September 2017)

UPDATE OF REGIONAL WEATHER AND SMOKE HAZE (September 2017) UPDATE OF REGIONAL WEATHER AND SMOKE HAZE (September 2017) 1. Review of Regional Weather Conditions in August 2017 1.1 Southwest Monsoon conditions continued to prevail in the region in August 2017. The

More information

Will a warmer world change Queensland s rainfall?

Will a warmer world change Queensland s rainfall? Will a warmer world change Queensland s rainfall? Nicholas P. Klingaman National Centre for Atmospheric Science-Climate Walker Institute for Climate System Research University of Reading The Walker-QCCCE

More information

Saharan Dust Induced Radiation-Cloud-Precipitation-Dynamics Interactions

Saharan Dust Induced Radiation-Cloud-Precipitation-Dynamics Interactions Saharan Dust Induced Radiation-Cloud-Precipitation-Dynamics Interactions William K. M. Lau NASA/GSFC Co-authors: K. M. Kim, M. Chin, P. Colarco, A. DaSilva Atmospheric loading of Saharan dust Annual emission

More information

7 December 2016 Tokyo Climate Center, Japan Meteorological Agency

7 December 2016 Tokyo Climate Center, Japan Meteorological Agency Summary of the 2016 Asian Summer Monsoon 7 December 2016 Tokyo Climate Center, Japan Meteorological Agency This report summarizes the characteristics of the surface climate and atmospheric/oceanographic

More information

Observed ENSO teleconnections with the South American monsoon system

Observed ENSO teleconnections with the South American monsoon system ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCE LETTERS Atmos. Sci. Let. 11: 7 12 (2010) Published online 8 January 2010 in Wiley InterScience (www.interscience.wiley.com) DOI: 10.1002/asl.245 Observed ENSO teleconnections with the

More information

Global Ocean Monitoring: Recent Evolution, Current Status, and Predictions

Global Ocean Monitoring: Recent Evolution, Current Status, and Predictions Global Ocean Monitoring: Recent Evolution, Current Status, and Predictions Prepared by Climate Prediction Center, NCEP November 6, 2009 http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/godas/ This project to deliver

More information

JMA s Seasonal Prediction of South Asian Climate for Summer 2018

JMA s Seasonal Prediction of South Asian Climate for Summer 2018 JMA s Seasonal Prediction of South Asian Climate for Summer 2018 Atsushi Minami Tokyo Climate Center (TCC) Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) Contents Outline of JMA s Seasonal Ensemble Prediction System

More information

Prospects for subseasonal forecast of Tropical Cyclone statistics with the CFS

Prospects for subseasonal forecast of Tropical Cyclone statistics with the CFS Prospects for subseasonal forecast of Tropical Cyclone statistics with the CFS Augustin Vintzileos (1)(3), Tim Marchok (2), Hua-Lu Pan (3) and Stephen J. Lord (1) SAIC (2) GFDL (3) EMC/NCEP/NOAA During

More information

Identifying the MJO Skeleton in Observational Data

Identifying the MJO Skeleton in Observational Data . Identifying the MJO Skeleton in Observational Data Sam Stechmann, Wisconsin Andrew Majda, NYU World Weather Open Science Conference August 20, 2014 Montreal, Canada Theoretical prediction of MJO structure

More information

General Circulation. Nili Harnik DEES, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory

General Circulation. Nili Harnik DEES, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory General Circulation Nili Harnik DEES, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory nili@ldeo.columbia.edu Latitudinal Radiation Imbalance The annual mean, averaged around latitude circles, of the balance between the

More information

ENSO and April SAT in MSA. This link is critical for our regression analysis where ENSO and

ENSO and April SAT in MSA. This link is critical for our regression analysis where ENSO and Supplementary Discussion The Link between El Niño and MSA April SATs: Our study finds a robust relationship between ENSO and April SAT in MSA. This link is critical for our regression analysis where ENSO

More information

South Asian Climate Outlook Forum (SASCOF-12)

South Asian Climate Outlook Forum (SASCOF-12) Twelfth Session of South Asian Climate Outlook Forum (SASCOF-12) Pune, India, 19-20 April 2018 Consensus Statement Summary Normal rainfall is most likely during the 2018 southwest monsoon season (June

More information

Future extreme precipitation events in the Southwestern US: climate change and natural modes of variability

Future extreme precipitation events in the Southwestern US: climate change and natural modes of variability Future extreme precipitation events in the Southwestern US: climate change and natural modes of variability Francina Dominguez Erick Rivera Fernandez Hsin-I Chang Christopher Castro AGU 2010 Fall Meeting

More information

KUALA LUMPUR MONSOON ACTIVITY CENT

KUALA LUMPUR MONSOON ACTIVITY CENT T KUALA LUMPUR MONSOON ACTIVITY CENT 2 ALAYSIAN METEOROLOGICAL http://www.met.gov.my DEPARTMENT MINISTRY OF SCIENCE. TECHNOLOGY AND INNOVATIO Introduction Atmospheric and oceanic conditions over the tropical

More information

Probabilistic predictions of monsoon rainfall with the ECMWF Monthly and Seasonal Forecast Systems

Probabilistic predictions of monsoon rainfall with the ECMWF Monthly and Seasonal Forecast Systems Probabilistic predictions of monsoon rainfall with the ECMWF Monthly and Seasonal Forecast Systems Franco Molteni, Frederic Vitart, Tim Stockdale, Laura Ferranti, Magdalena Balmaseda European Centre for

More information

Seasonal Climate Watch July to November 2018

Seasonal Climate Watch July to November 2018 Seasonal Climate Watch July to November 2018 Date issued: Jun 25, 2018 1. Overview The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is now in a neutral phase and is expected to rise towards an El Niño phase through

More information

An OLR perspective on El Niño and La Niña impacts on seasonal weather anomalies

An OLR perspective on El Niño and La Niña impacts on seasonal weather anomalies An OLR perspective on El Niño and La Niña impacts on seasonal weather anomalies Andy Chiodi & Ed Harrison Univ. of WA (JISAO) and NOAA/PMEL Seattle, USA An Outgoing-Longwave-Radiation (OLR) Perspective

More information

UPDATE OF REGIONAL WEATHER AND SMOKE HAZE February 2016

UPDATE OF REGIONAL WEATHER AND SMOKE HAZE February 2016 UPDATE OF REGIONAL WEATHER AND SMOKE HAZE February 2016 1. Review of Regional Weather Conditions in January 2016 1.1 The Northeast Monsoon conditions prevailed in the region in January 2016. With the monsoon

More information

1. Introduction. 2. Verification of the 2010 forecasts. Research Brief 2011/ February 2011

1. Introduction. 2. Verification of the 2010 forecasts. Research Brief 2011/ February 2011 Research Brief 2011/01 Verification of Forecasts of Tropical Cyclone Activity over the Western North Pacific and Number of Tropical Cyclones Making Landfall in South China and the Korea and Japan region

More information

APPLICATIONS OF DOWNSCALING: HYDROLOGY AND WATER RESOURCES EXAMPLES

APPLICATIONS OF DOWNSCALING: HYDROLOGY AND WATER RESOURCES EXAMPLES APPLICATIONS OF DOWNSCALING: HYDROLOGY AND WATER RESOURCES EXAMPLES Dennis P. Lettenmaier Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering For presentation at Workshop on Regional Climate Research NCAR

More information

Seasonal Climate Watch June to October 2018

Seasonal Climate Watch June to October 2018 Seasonal Climate Watch June to October 2018 Date issued: May 28, 2018 1. Overview The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has now moved into the neutral phase and is expected to rise towards an El Niño

More information

Use of the Combined Pacific Variability Mode for Climate Prediction in North America

Use of the Combined Pacific Variability Mode for Climate Prediction in North America Use of the Combined Pacific Variability Mode for Climate Prediction in North America Christopher L. Castro,, Stephen Bieda III, and Francina Dominguez University of Arizona Regional Climate Forum for Northwest

More information

Operational Monsoon Monitoring at NCEP

Operational Monsoon Monitoring at NCEP Operational Monsoon Monitoring at NCEP Wassila M. Thiaw Climate Prediction Center National Centers for Environmental Predictions Operational Monsoon Monitoring at NCEP Wassila M. Thiaw Climate Prediction

More information

ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions. Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 11 November 2013

ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions. Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 11 November 2013 ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 11 November 2013 Outline Overview Recent Evolution and Current Conditions Oceanic Niño Index

More information

ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions. Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 25 February 2013

ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions. Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 25 February 2013 ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 25 February 2013 Outline Overview Recent Evolution and Current Conditions Oceanic Niño Index

More information

Climate of the Philippines and the sea surface temperature effect on summer monsoon rainfall in the Philippines

Climate of the Philippines and the sea surface temperature effect on summer monsoon rainfall in the Philippines International Workshop on Climate Downscaling Studies at Tsukuba, October 4, 2017 Climate of the Philippines and the sea surface temperature effect on summer monsoon rainfall in the Philippines Jun Matsumoto

More information

CORDEX Simulations for South Asia

CORDEX Simulations for South Asia WCRP CORDEX South Asia Planning Meeting 25-26 February 2012 Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM) Pune, India CORDEX Simulations for South Asia J. Sanjay Centre for Climate Change Research (CCCR)

More information

BMKG Research on Air sea interaction modeling for YMC

BMKG Research on Air sea interaction modeling for YMC BMKG Research on Air sea interaction modeling for YMC Prof. Edvin Aldrian Director for Research and Development - BMKG First Scientific and Planning Workshop on Year of Maritime Continent, Singapore 27-3

More information

Improved rainfall and cloud-radiation interaction with Betts-Miller-Janjic cumulus scheme in the tropics

Improved rainfall and cloud-radiation interaction with Betts-Miller-Janjic cumulus scheme in the tropics Improved rainfall and cloud-radiation interaction with Betts-Miller-Janjic cumulus scheme in the tropics Tieh-Yong KOH 1 and Ricardo M. FONSECA 2 1 Singapore University of Social Sciences, Singapore 2

More information

Seasonal Climate Watch February to June 2018

Seasonal Climate Watch February to June 2018 Seasonal Climate Watch February to June 2018 Date issued: Jan 26, 2018 1. Overview The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is expected to remain in a weak La Niña phase through to early autumn (Feb-Mar-Apr).

More information

The Experimental Regional Seasonal Ensemble Forecasting at NCEP

The Experimental Regional Seasonal Ensemble Forecasting at NCEP The Experimental Regional Seasonal Ensemble Forecasting at NCEP Hann-Ming Henry Juang Environment Modeling Center, NCEP, Washington, DC Jun Wang SAIC contractor under NCEP/EMC John Roads Experimental Climate

More information

How far in advance can we forecast cold/heat spells?

How far in advance can we forecast cold/heat spells? Sub-seasonal time scales: a user-oriented verification approach How far in advance can we forecast cold/heat spells? Laura Ferranti, L. Magnusson, F. Vitart, D. Richardson, M. Rodwell Danube, Feb 2012

More information

Characteristics of Global Precipitable Water Revealed by COSMIC Measurements

Characteristics of Global Precipitable Water Revealed by COSMIC Measurements Characteristics of Global Precipitable Water Revealed by COSMIC Measurements Ching-Yuang Huang 1,2, Wen-Hsin Teng 1, Shu-Peng Ho 3, Ying-Hwa Kuo 3, and Xin-Jia Zhou 3 1 Department of Atmospheric Sciences,

More information

Monsoon Activities in China Tianjun ZHOU

Monsoon Activities in China Tianjun ZHOU Monsoon Activities in China Tianjun ZHOU Email: zhoutj@lasg.iap.ac.cn CLIVAR AAMP10, Busan,, Korea 18-19 19 June 2010 Outline Variability of EASM -- Interdecadal variability -- Interannual variability

More information

Climate Outlook for March August 2018

Climate Outlook for March August 2018 The APEC CLIMATE CENTER Climate Outlook for March August 2018 BUSAN, 26 February 2018 The synthesis of the latest model forecasts for March to August 2018 (MAMJJA) from the APEC Climate Center (APCC),

More information

Introduction to Climate ~ Part I ~

Introduction to Climate ~ Part I ~ 2015/11/16 TCC Seminar JMA Introduction to Climate ~ Part I ~ Shuhei MAEDA (MRI/JMA) Climate Research Department Meteorological Research Institute (MRI/JMA) 1 Outline of the lecture 1. Climate System (

More information

Seasonal Climate Watch September 2018 to January 2019

Seasonal Climate Watch September 2018 to January 2019 Seasonal Climate Watch September 2018 to January 2019 Date issued: Aug 31, 2018 1. Overview The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is still in a neutral phase and is still expected to rise towards an

More information

Numerical simulation of rainfall pattern in Thailand during El Niño event

Numerical simulation of rainfall pattern in Thailand during El Niño event Australian Journal of Basic and Applied Sciences, 4(12): 6647-6652, 2010 ISSN 1991-8178 2010, INSInet Publication Numerical simulation of rainfall pattern in Thailand during El Niño event 1 Wonlee Nounmusig,

More information

Intraseasonal Variation of Visibility in Hong Kong

Intraseasonal Variation of Visibility in Hong Kong Intraseasonal Variation of Visibility in Hong Kong Wen Zhou, Richard Li and Eric Chow Guy Carpenter Asia-Pacific Climate Impact Center School of Energy and Environment, City University of Hong Kong Page

More information

La Niña impacts on global seasonal weather anomalies: The OLR perspective. Andrew Chiodi and Ed Harrison

La Niña impacts on global seasonal weather anomalies: The OLR perspective. Andrew Chiodi and Ed Harrison La Niña impacts on global seasonal weather anomalies: The OLR perspective Andrew Chiodi and Ed Harrison Outline Motivation Impacts of the El Nino- Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on seasonal weather anomalies

More information

The Formation of Precipitation Anomaly Patterns during the Developing and Decaying Phases of ENSO

The Formation of Precipitation Anomaly Patterns during the Developing and Decaying Phases of ENSO ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC SCIENCE LETTERS, 2010, VOL. 3, NO. 1, 25 30 The Formation of Precipitation Anomaly Patterns during the Developing and Decaying Phases of ENSO HU Kai-Ming and HUANG Gang State Key

More information

OVERVIEW OF IMPROVED USE OF RS INDICATORS AT INAM. Domingos Mosquito Patricio

OVERVIEW OF IMPROVED USE OF RS INDICATORS AT INAM. Domingos Mosquito Patricio OVERVIEW OF IMPROVED USE OF RS INDICATORS AT INAM Domingos Mosquito Patricio domingos.mosquito@gmail.com Introduction to Mozambique /INAM Introduction to AGRICAB/SPIRITS Objectives Material & Methods Results

More information

East China Summer Rainfall during ENSO Decaying Years Simulated by a Regional Climate Model

East China Summer Rainfall during ENSO Decaying Years Simulated by a Regional Climate Model ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC SCIENCE LETTERS, 2011, VOL. 4, NO. 2, 91 97 East China Summer Rainfall during ENSO Decaying Years Simulated by a Regional Climate Model ZENG Xian-Feng 1, 2, LI Bo 1, 2, FENG Lei

More information

ALMA MEMO : the driest and coldest summer. Ricardo Bustos CBI Project SEP 06

ALMA MEMO : the driest and coldest summer. Ricardo Bustos CBI Project SEP 06 ALMA MEMO 433 2002: the driest and coldest summer Ricardo Bustos CBI Project E-mail: rbustos@dgf.uchile.cl 2002 SEP 06 Abstract: This memo reports NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis results for the southern hemisphere

More information

EMC Probabilistic Forecast Verification for Sub-season Scales

EMC Probabilistic Forecast Verification for Sub-season Scales EMC Probabilistic Forecast Verification for Sub-season Scales Yuejian Zhu Environmental Modeling Center NCEP/NWS/NOAA Acknowledgement: Wei Li, Hong Guan and Eric Sinsky Present for the DTC Test Plan and

More information

ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions. Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 24 September 2012

ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions. Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 24 September 2012 ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 24 September 2012 Outline Overview Recent Evolution and Current Conditions Oceanic Niño

More information

The spatio-temporal characteristics of total rainfall during September in South Korea according to the variation of ENSO

The spatio-temporal characteristics of total rainfall during September in South Korea according to the variation of ENSO Clim Dyn DOI 1.17/s382-13-233- The spatio-temporal characteristics of total rainfall during September in South Korea according to the variation of ENSO Ki-Seon Choi Sung-Dae Kang Hae-Dong Kim Bin Wang

More information

ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions. Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 5 August 2013

ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions. Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 5 August 2013 ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 5 August 2013 Outline Overview Recent Evolution and Current Conditions Oceanic Niño Index

More information

Evaluation of Satellite Precipitation Products over the Central of Vietnam

Evaluation of Satellite Precipitation Products over the Central of Vietnam Evaluation of Satellite Precipitation Products over the Central of Vietnam Long Trinh-Tuan (1), Jun Matsumoto (1,2), Thanh Ngo-Duc (3) (1) Department of Geography, Tokyo Metropolitan University, Japan.

More information

The Maritime Continent as a Prediction Barrier

The Maritime Continent as a Prediction Barrier The Maritime Continent as a Prediction Barrier for the MJO Augustin Vintzileos EMC/NCEP SAIC Points to take back home. Forecast of the MJO is at, average, skillful for lead times of up to circa 2 weeks.

More information

Spring Heavy Rain Events in Taiwan during Warm Episodes and the Associated Large-Scale Conditions

Spring Heavy Rain Events in Taiwan during Warm Episodes and the Associated Large-Scale Conditions VOLUME 131 MONTHLY WEATHER REVIEW JULY 2003 Spring Heavy Rain Events in Taiwan during Warm Episodes and the Associated Large-Scale Conditions GEORGE TAI-JEN CHEN, ZHIHONG JIANG,* AND MING-CHIN WU Department

More information

Moist static energy budget diagnostics for. monsoon research. H. Annamalai

Moist static energy budget diagnostics for. monsoon research. H. Annamalai Moist static energy budget diagnostics for monsoon research H. Annamalai JJAS Precipitation and SST Climatology I III II Multiple regional heat sources - EIO and SPCZ still experience high precipitation

More information

ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions. Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 15 July 2013

ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions. Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 15 July 2013 ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 15 July 2013 Outline Overview Recent Evolution and Current Conditions Oceanic Niño Index

More information

Climate Validation of MERRA

Climate Validation of MERRA Climate Validation of MERRA Siegfried Schubert, Michael Bosilovich, Michele Rienecker, Max Suarez, Randy Koster, Yehui Chang, Derek Van Pelt, Larry Takacs, Man-Li Wu, Myong-In Lee, Scott Weaver, Junye

More information

Forecasting. Theory Types Examples

Forecasting. Theory Types Examples Forecasting Theory Types Examples How Good Are Week Out Weather Forecasts? For forecasts greater than nine days out, weather forecasters do WORSE than the climate average forecast. Why is there predictability

More information

SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION

SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION Intensification of Northern Hemisphere Subtropical Highs in a Warming Climate Wenhong Li, Laifang Li, Mingfang Ting, and Yimin Liu 1. Data and Methods The data used in this study consists of the atmospheric

More information

UPDATE OF REGIONAL WEATHER AND SMOKE HAZE December 2016

UPDATE OF REGIONAL WEATHER AND SMOKE HAZE December 2016 UPDATE OF REGIONAL WEATHER AND SMOKE HAZE December 2016 1. Review of Regional Weather Conditions in November 2016 1.1 Inter monsoon conditions prevailed in the first half of November 2016. During this

More information

Introduction of climate monitoring and analysis products for one-month forecast

Introduction of climate monitoring and analysis products for one-month forecast Introduction of climate monitoring and analysis products for one-month forecast TCC Training Seminar on One-month Forecast on 13 November 2018 10:30 11:00 1 Typical flow of making one-month forecast Observed

More information

UPDATE OF REGIONAL WEATHER AND SMOKE HAZE FOR MAY 2015

UPDATE OF REGIONAL WEATHER AND SMOKE HAZE FOR MAY 2015 UPDATE OF REGIONAL WEATHER AND SMOKE HAZE FOR MAY 2015 1. Review of Regional Weather Conditions in April 2015 1.1 Inter-Monsoon conditions prevailed over the ASEAN region in April 2015. The gradual northward

More information

MDA WEATHER SERVICES AG WEATHER OUTLOOK. Kyle Tapley-Senior Agricultural Meteorologist May 22, 2014 Chicago, IL

MDA WEATHER SERVICES AG WEATHER OUTLOOK. Kyle Tapley-Senior Agricultural Meteorologist May 22, 2014 Chicago, IL MDA WEATHER SERVICES AG WEATHER OUTLOOK Kyle Tapley-Senior Agricultural Meteorologist May 22, 2014 Chicago, IL GLOBAL GRAIN NORTH AMERICA 2014 Agenda Spring Recap North America Forecast El Niño Discussion

More information

ECMWF: Weather and Climate Dynamical Forecasts

ECMWF: Weather and Climate Dynamical Forecasts ECMWF: Weather and Climate Dynamical Forecasts Medium-Range (0-day) Partial coupling Extended + Monthly Fully coupled Seasonal Forecasts Fully coupled Atmospheric model Atmospheric model Wave model Wave

More information

EVALUATION OF BROAD SCALE VERTICAL CIRCULATION AND THERMAL INDICES IN RELATION TO THE ONSET OF INDIAN SUMMER MONSOON

EVALUATION OF BROAD SCALE VERTICAL CIRCULATION AND THERMAL INDICES IN RELATION TO THE ONSET OF INDIAN SUMMER MONSOON INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY Int. J. Climatol. 22: 649 661 (2002) Published online in Wiley InterScience (www.interscience.wiley.com). DOI: 10.1002/joc.742 EVALUATION OF BROAD SCALE VERTICAL CIRCULATION

More information

Tokyo Climate Center Website (TCC website) and its products -For monitoring the world climate and ocean-

Tokyo Climate Center Website (TCC website) and its products -For monitoring the world climate and ocean- Tokyo, 14 November 2016, TCC Training Seminar Tokyo Climate Center Website (TCC website) and its products -For monitoring the world climate and ocean- Yasushi MOCHIZUKI Tokyo Climate Center Japan Meteorological

More information

UPDATE OF REGIONAL WEATHER AND SMOKE HAZE November 2016

UPDATE OF REGIONAL WEATHER AND SMOKE HAZE November 2016 UPDATE OF REGIONAL WEATHER AND SMOKE HAZE November 2016 1. Review of Regional Weather Conditions in November 2016 1.1 Southwest Monsoon conditions prevailed on most days in October 2016 and the winds were

More information

El Niño 2015/2016: Impact Analysis

El Niño 2015/2016: Impact Analysis El Niño /26: Impact Analysis March 26 Dr Linda Hirons, Dr Nicholas Klingaman This work was funded by the Department for International Development (DFID) 2 Table of Contents. Introduction 4. Update of current

More information

Introduction of Seasonal Forecast Guidance. TCC Training Seminar on Seasonal Prediction Products November 2013

Introduction of Seasonal Forecast Guidance. TCC Training Seminar on Seasonal Prediction Products November 2013 Introduction of Seasonal Forecast Guidance TCC Training Seminar on Seasonal Prediction Products 11-15 November 2013 1 Outline 1. Introduction 2. Regression method Single/Multi regression model Selection

More information

Regional Consultative Workshop on

Regional Consultative Workshop on Regional Consultative Workshop on El Niño in Asia-Pacific Country Presentation of Myanmar 7-9 June 2016 Bangkok, Thailand El Niño Impact (Myanmar Aspect) The impacts of El Nino event on the climate and

More information

An Overview of NRCM Research and Lessons Learned

An Overview of NRCM Research and Lessons Learned An Overview of NRCM Research and Lessons Learned L. Ruby Leung Pacific Northwest National Laboratory With NCAR MMM/CGD scientists, students (U. Miami, Georgia Tech), and visitors (CMA and Taiwan) The NRCM

More information

Regional Climate Simulations with WRF Model

Regional Climate Simulations with WRF Model WDS'3 Proceedings of Contributed Papers, Part III, 8 84, 23. ISBN 978-8-737852-8 MATFYZPRESS Regional Climate Simulations with WRF Model J. Karlický Charles University in Prague, Faculty of Mathematics

More information

COUNTRY REPORT. Jakarta. July, th National Directorate of Meteorology and Geophysics of Timor-Leste (DNMG)

COUNTRY REPORT. Jakarta. July, th National Directorate of Meteorology and Geophysics of Timor-Leste (DNMG) The Southeastern Asia-Oceania Flash Flood COUNTRY REPORT Jakarta. July, 10-12 th 2017 National Directorate of Meteorology and Geophysics of Timor-Leste (DNMG) Carla Feritas and Crisostimo Lobato Democratic

More information

Analysis of the dynamics of extreme rainfall events in summer in southern Uruguay

Analysis of the dynamics of extreme rainfall events in summer in southern Uruguay Analysis of the dynamics of extreme rainfall events in summer in southern Uruguay Matilde Ungerovich and Marcelo Barreiro UdelaR, Montevideo 8 May 2018 When I say Uruguay When I say Uruguay When I say

More information

Seasonal Climate Watch November 2017 to March 2018

Seasonal Climate Watch November 2017 to March 2018 Seasonal Climate Watch November 2017 to March 2018 Date issued: Oct 26, 2017 1. Overview The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) continues to develop towards a La Niña state, and is expected to be in at

More information