Weather Briefing. Associated Press/Orlin Wagner - near Lawrence, Kansas, Tues. Feb. 26, 2013.
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1 CHICAGO (Reuters) - A powerful winter storm that buried the U.S. Plains moved on Tuesday into the southern Great Lakes region, where it snarled the evening commute in Chicago and Milwaukee, created near-whiteout conditions and forced hundreds of flight cancellations. Weather Briefing Associated Press/Orlin Wagner - near Lawrence, Kansas, Tues. Feb. 26, brief look at Tuesday's storm in eastern U.S. follow-up on the east coast storm(s) fcst by GFS (at 14 day range) for ~ 12 March present situation in western Canada forecast through Sunday for C. Alberta
2 Eastern U.S. storm GEM-glbl 144-h fcst init. 00Z Thurs 21 Feb, valid 00Z Wed 27 Feb
3 Eastern U.S. storm CMC 250 hpa analysis 12Z Tues 26 Feb. Chicago closed (i.e. cutoff) low even at 250 hpa position of surface low, 12Z 26 Feb.
4 Eastern U.S. storm CMC 500 hpa analysis 12Z Tues 26 Feb.
5 Eastern U.S. storm CMC 700 hpa analysis 12Z Tues 26 Feb. humidity advection over Chicago
6 Eastern U.S. storm CMC 850 hpa analysis 12Z Tues 26 Feb. well defined cold and warm sectors, albeit not particularly strong grad-t extremely strong 850 hpa winds warm advection over Chicago
7 Eastern U.S. storm NCEP sfc analysis & GOES east IR at 12Z Tues 26 Feb different orientation of GOES & the charts slear skies in warm sector wrapping around east side of the storm (comparison with VIS images showed low cloud wrapping south on west side of strom)
8 NCEP sfc analysis 12Z Tues 26 Feb.
9 Now a follow-up regarding the east coast storms GFS indicates at ~ two week range
10 GFS 336-h fcst init. 06Z Tues 26 March, valid 06Z Tues 12 March
11 GFS 312-h fcst init. 06Z Wed 27 March, valid 06Z Tues 12 March Timing and intensity of the storm differ from yesterday's prog And this later low looks to cause precip at New York a couple of days later
12 GFS 360-h fcst init. 06Z Wed 27 March, valid 06Z Thurs 14 March weaker central pressure of about 1000 hpa
13 GFS 288-h fcst init. 12Z Wed 27 March, valid 12Z Mon 11 March
14 GFS 300-h fcst init. 12Z Wed 27 March, valid 00Z Tues 12 March
15 GFS 324-h fcst init. 12Z Wed 27 March, valid 00Z Wed 13 March the system has deepened, central pressure of 964 hpa
16 Now skipping to present and imminent weather in Alberta... What are the professionals noting? SIGNIFICANT WEATHER DISCUSSION ISSUED BY THE PRAIRIE AND ARCTIC STORM PREDICTION CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 7:00 AM CST THURSDAY FEBRUARY DISCUSSION... PRAIRIES... AREAS OF FG THIS MORNING IN ERN AB OTWZ QUIET IN THE PRAIRIES. TNGT STRG LEE TROF DVLPS ALG FTHLS PRODUCING STRG GAP WINDS. WIND GUSTS MAY APPROACH 100 KM/H AND WILL FURTHER ASSESS IF WIND WARNINGS ARE REQD THIS AFTN. Lackmann p308 procedure: set the planetary, synoptic & mesoscale context Characteristics of the planetary-scale pattern? The synoptic-scale pattern?
17 strong, roughly zonal current onto W. Canada shortwave troughs in B.C. & Sask. GEMreg 0h prog valid 00Z today (Thurs 28 Feb) clipped from b/w 4-panel charts
18 strong, roughly zonal current onto W. Canada shortwave troughs in B.C. & Sask. GEMreg 0h prog valid 06Z today (Thurs 28 Feb) clipped from b/w 4-panel charts
19 strong, roughly zonal current onto W. Canada shortwave troughs in B.C. & Sask. NO DRAMA GEMreg 0h prog valid 12Z today (Thurs 28 Feb) clipped from b/w 4-panel charts
20 CMC 850 hpa analysis 12Z today (Thurs 28 Feb) fairly uniform temperature over BC & Ab rather dry aloft weak warm advection over Edmonton?
21 nocturnal ground-based radiation inversion rather dry below 700 hpa winds light, not much directional shear suggestion cloud possible near and above 700 hpa (where T - 17oC )
22 Over Alberta: no high cloud patchy stratiform cloud at the T ~ -40oC level? (~ 450 hpa level)
23 Over Alberta: no high cloud patchy stratiform cloud at the T ~ -40oC level? (~ 450 hpa level)
24 EDMONTON/EDMONTON INTL/AB METAR CYEG Z 15003KT 15SM FEW077 SCT082 SCT170 BKN250 M10/M13 A3005 RMK AC1AC2AC1CI1 SLP228= METAR CYEG Z 16006KT 15SM FEW055 BKN077 BKN084 M06/M10 A3004 RMK SC1AC4AS2 VIRGA SLP222= METAR CYEG Z 17005KT 15SM FEW053 OVC083 M07/M09 A3004 RMK SC1AS7 VIRGA SLP221=
25
26 Over Alberta: CMC 700 hpa analysis 12Z today (Thurs 28 Feb) fairly slack westerly upper flow patchy high humidity pattern (dense stippling means T-Td 2oC
27 CMC surface analysis 12Z today (Thurs 28 Feb) low off coast of B.C. arctic high affecting Manitoba and NE Canada storm in eastern U.S. surface trough in Alberta
28 Now concerning lee trough & winds anticipated by MSC forecasters... isobars identify strong lee trough in Alberta implying strong grad-p across mntns gap winds thickness gradient SE-NW band of warm air in lee of Rockies (adiabatic compression) GEM reg 24-h prog initialized 06Z today (Thurs 28 Feb) and valid 06Z Friday (11 pm today)
29 tight-packed 700 hpa height contours (strong flow over Rockies) sink in lee of Rockies (positive omega) GEM reg 24-h prog initialized 06Z today (Thurs 28 Feb) and valid 06Z Friday (11 pm today)
30
31
32 NAM 72-h prog initialized 12Z today valid 12Z Sunday
33 GEM glbl 84-h prog initialized 00Z today valid 12Z Sunday
34 GEM glbl 84-h prog initialized 00Z today valid 12Z Sunday
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